Timely statistical information for
monetary policy purposes
Werner Bier
Deputy Director-General Statistics,
European Central Bank
International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and Comparability of
Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
Ottawa, 27-29 May 2009
Content
• Monetary policy data needs - the example of the
European Central Bank
• Timeliness of data for the euro area
• Assessing a wide range of data in a short period of
time – consistency and accessibility of data
• The challenges for statistics of a global economy
2
The ECB’s monetary policy framework
Primary objective: price stability
Monetary policy decisions based
on a unified overall assessment
of the risks to price stability
Economic
analysis
Analysis of
economic
dynamics and
shocks
Monetary
analysis
Crosschecking
Analysis of
monetary trends
Full set of information (monetary, financial and economic
statistics, euro area accounts, macro-economic projections,
opinion surveys, market data, ...)
3
Timeline of euro area statistical data
2009
P M I (M F ) & P M I
S UR V E Y A P R IL 2 0 0 9
H IC P G E R M A N Y
A P R IL 2 0 0 9 UN E M P LO Y M E N T
F LA S H E S T IM A T E S
GD P Q4 2008
M F I IN T E R E S T
R A T E S T A T IS T IC S
F E B R UA R Y 2 0 0 9
QN A Q4 2008
GOVERNING
GER M A N Y
UN E M P LO Y M E N T
M A R C H 2009
13 FEBRUARY
FEBRUARY
M A R C H 2009 ,
C O N S UM E R /
B US IN E S S O P IN IO N
S UR V E Y S
A P R IL 2 0 0 9 , F LA S H
E S T IM A T E S
IN F LA T IO N
A P R IL 2 0 0 9 &
Q UA R T E R LY E A A
Q4 2008
5 MARCH 31 MARCH
MARCH
6 APRIL
B A N K LE N D IN G
S UR V E Y A P R IL
2 0 0 9 M F I B A LA N C E
S H E E T S T A T IS T IC S
M A R C H 2009
29 APRIL
APRIL
COUNCIL
ANNOUNCES ITS
DECISION
30 APRIL
7 MAY
M A R KE T D A T A
R E A L T IM E
MAY
4
Timeliness of data for the euro area
• Forecasts (‘broad’ and ‘narrow’ projection exercises)
• Opinion surveys (e.g. bank lending survey, business
and consumer surveys, purchasing managers surveys):
at least monthly with a high timeliness
• Market data (e.g. stock market data, exchange rates,
yields): at least daily, frequently “tick-by-tick”
• Monetary and financial statistics (e.g. MFI (bank)
balance sheets & interest rates, securities, balance of
payments): monthly
• Short-term statistics (e.g. Harmonised CPI (HICP),
unemployment rate, leading indicators): monthly
• National accounts (e.g. GDP, sector accounts):
quarterly with a timeliness between 45 - 90 days
5
Coherence among the information sets - I
• Assessing huge data sets in a very timely fashion
• Coherence in the concepts applied between e.g.
-
forecasts and national accounts (SNA 2008)
-
national accounts by sector including (financial)
balance sheets and monetary & financial
statistics, balance of payments statistics &
international investment positions (BPM6)
-
national accounts and short-term statistics
-
short-term statistics and opinion surveys
-
micro market data (e.g. individual securities) and
financial statistics
6
Coherence among the information sets - II
• Coherence among different data sets also requires
acceptance of main statistical standards such
as SNA 2008 / BPM6 or the statistical
classification of economic activities
close cooperation among data providers on the
detailed methodology applied, the compilation
timetable, revision policies, underlying registers,
the seasonal adjustment, etc.
exchange of (confidential) data, where needed
organisational measures (partly including legal
provisions) involving also senior management
7
Accessibility of data
• Assessing huge data sets in a very timely fashion
• Application of Statistical Data Warehouses that
-
provide access to different data sets
simultaneously (e.g. market data, opinion surveys,
national accounts and related forecasts)
-
allow dedicated access rights, where needed
• Networks of Statistical Data Warehouses among
producers and users of data
• Statistical Data and Metadata eXchange (SDMX)
8
The challenges for statistics of a global economy
• Globalisation requires global statistics:
agreed international statistical standards such as
the SNA 2008 and the BPM6
comparable statistics at least among systemic
relevant countries
relevant timely world-aggregates such as a
quarterly global GDP at day t+60
a central and publicly accessible database for the
Principal Global Economic Indicators (PGEIs)
Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial
Statistics (Principal Global Indicators Website)
9
A few conclusions
• Monetary policy decisions are evidence based and
forward looking, and rely on a wide range of data
• The relevance of statistics is enhanced by a higher
degree of coherence, timeliness and reliability
• In the short-term, there is a trade-off between
coherence, timeliness and reliability
• In the medium-term, one cannot only move on the
production function for statistics, but one can move
the production function
• Globalisation requires global statistics with
appropriate regional breakdowns
10