Directorate of Surveys
National Accounts Coordination
The backcasting of Brazil’s National Accounts
2010 Reference year
Roberto Olinto Ramos
Director of Surveys / Head of National Accounts
Ricardo Montes de Moraes
Head of Methods/National Accounts Coordination
Backcasted SUTs
•
Objective: to adjust Brazil’s National Accounts series to
changes in classification (ISIC 4) and definitions (SNA
2008).
• Overview: The backcasting process uses, as its main
sources, the existing SUTs – adjusted for classification
changes and aggregated to 56 activities and 110
products.
• From these tables, volume and price changes are
calculated and applied to 2010 totals, backcasting them.
• Backcasting Integrated Accounts
Backcasted SUTs
• Specific adjustments are made in order to keep
coherence with total government tax and contribution
revenue.
• Transport and trade margins are adjusted for the new
supply and uses of trade and cargo transport.
• SUTs’ equilibrium is obtained through balancing items,
adjusting the final uses and gross operating surpluses
to the new supply data.
• For public administration activities, the process is
made “bottom up”, backcasting gross operating
surpluses and calculating production by adding
backcasted salaries, contributions, surpluses and
intermediate consumption.
Backcasted SUTs
• SUTs will be backcasted from 2009 to 2000.
• For the 1999 – 1995 period only the value added,
final uses, imports and taxes on products will be
backcasted (with 12 aggregated economic activities).
• Annual data will be backcasted. Quarterly data will be
then adjusted to the new annual series with a
benchmarking method (Denton).
Activities and products treated apart
•
In the classification adjustment to the ISIC 4,
data from 4 activities and 5 products associated
to them will be extracted from the SUTs to be
treated apart.
•
These activities and products underwent
significant changes of classification or treatment
in the SNA and their backcasting will use
indexes compatible with the ones used in their
annual estimation from 2010 on.
Activities and products treated apart
The four activities are:
- Books, newspapers and magazines’ editing – With the new ISIC
classification, books, newspapers and magazines became products
of the Editing activity (a service) and not graphic products (industrial
ones) as in the previous ISIC.
-
Machinery and equipment repairs and maintenance – In ISIC 3,
these services were part of machinery and equipment production
activities. In ISIC 4, they became a specific activity in the industrial
sector.
-
Research and development – Classified as gross fixed capital
formation in SNA 2008, Research and development was
recalculated for the entire 2000-2009 series, in a partnership project
with the Science, technology and innovation ministry.
-
Software licensing and development – Also classified as gross
fixed capital formation, the activity is estimated with more detail for
the new series.
SUTs’ balance
• Differences between backcasted supply and use,
by product, will be distributed according to their
types of use (and to the extent of the difference).
• For the products with differences to be adjusted
in the intermediary consumption, this difference
will be distributed proportionately between the
economic activities that use the product.
• Later, analysts responsible for each activity will
verify the consistency of this distribution and
propose alternatives if it leads to distortions on
the value added.
SUTs’ balance
• The value added will be obtained as a balancing
item.
• From each activity’s value added, backcasted
salaries, social contributions and taxes will be
subtracted, leading to a sum of gross operating
surplus and mixed income.
Backcasting Integrated Accounts
• Easier! just current values
• Backcasted SUT: main data source
• Reclassification of operations
• Re-balance of interest or dividends tables (who – who)
• Balance the new Integrated Account
Thank you!
roberto.olinto@ibge.gov.br