2010 Brazilian Population Census Challenges and Benefits in Using Modern Technologies Seminar

advertisement
2010 Brazilian Population Census
Challenges and Benefits in Using
Modern Technologies
Marcia Quintslr
IBGE - Director of Surveys
Seminar
Counting the 7 Billion: the Future of Population and Housing Census
United Nations Statistics Division
New York, February 24th, 2012
Brazil
• 27 State Units
• 5565 Municipalities
• more than 190 million people
• 8.5 million Km2
2010 Population Census: Strategies
LISTEN TO USERS
Planning 2010 and Defining questionnaires topics;
Monitoring field work quality; Complementing data;
defining releasing strategies; evaluating 2010 Census.
TECHNOLOGY
Data Collection: face to face interview and Internet.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Integrated digital mapping to the National Addresses
File for Statistical purposes;
Local offices of IT and for data collection management,
including quality control and supervision.
Training
2007 a great learning
2010 a successful experience
The technological and methodological innovations introduced in the
2007 and 2010 Censuses constitute landmarks in IBGE history
and are of substantial influence on the institute’s activities.
The 2007 Censuses: An integrated operation
First time IBGE adopted the handheld computers in a Census data
collection.
Integration among
Agricultural Census;
Population Counting (partial coverture of territory);
National Addresses List for Statistical Purposes.
Motivation
Reduce costs (separately they would be 40% more expensive).
How the operations were conducted?
Shared enumerators team and structure.
Collection period: April 15 until October, 2007.
2007 - observed difficulties on technology
Initial data loading into handheld computers delayed
starting (obstruction of the data communication system to
transfer information)
Serious communication difficulties due to the low-quality of
the services ( poor quality of phone lines, satellite
antennas misaligned due wind)
Software updates (various versions applied during data
collection period)
2007 - observed difficulties on technology
The inadequate functioning of data entry to the Data Collection
Management System. (made it difficult to observe the problems and the
adoption of correction measures in due time)
Delay in the functioning of the Supervision System. (supervision was
not effective as expected)
Coverage failures were only observed in advanced stage of collection
(need of coverage review in several municipalities)
Important lesson…
“ Technological advancement requires to adjust processes
and training.”
Remarks
It is important to consider that the experience of IBGE 2007
Censuses was extremely important:
• for the adequate planning of the 2010 Population Census, for
which this innovation was a success, specially because some
new processes and ways to explore IT facilities were
implemented.
• for the current surveys, as it is the case of the use of handheld
computers for the Annual National Household Sample Survey
since its 2007 round. This experience complemented the
required knowledge on electronic data collection by the side of
IBGE staff.
2010 – Strategies on Improvement of processes
- Census Mapping – pre Census operation;
- Efficient application of questionnaires;
- IT infrastructure, provided support and training:
- 1200 IT offices;
- 7000 local offices with local capacity to receive collected information;
- Control quality variables at each stage of generating data and listen to
users on some aspects.
2010 Census Mapping
Definition of 316.574 enumeration areas
 Building of an integrated Territorial Database to support 2010
Census
 Association of the “National Address File for Statistical Purposes
– CNEFE” file to the blocks and block-face in urban enumeration
areas (pre Census operation);
 Geometrical adjustment of urban and rural limits for each
Municipality.
• SISMAP – Brazilian System for Census Mapping
• Tool that was developed for municipal mapping in a single
continuous spatial database.
• Input data from several sources of vector and imagery data, like
GIS, GPS, satellite imagery, digital and aerial photography
2010 Population Census
Territorial Database
Territorial Database
27 Federation Units
(States)
5,565 Municipalities
10,283 Districts
662 Subdistricts/R.A.
316,574 Enumeration Areas
240,382 urban EAs
76,192 rural Eas
Efficient application of Questionnaires
Questions:
14 – person
23 – household
Questions:
71 – person
37 – household
Diferent sample fraction according with
municipality population, charged in
handheld computers and defining
household selection.
2010 – Improvement of ICT in Data Collection
• Data collection was carried out using handheld computers in a face to
face mode interview (CAPI) and concurrently the National Addresses
File for Statistical Purposes (CNEFE) was updated.
• IBGE staff was responsible for the development the Information and
Communication Technology (ICT) for 2010 Census.
•
There was no paper questionnaire.
• Processes were adjusted to the optimal application of technology.
2010 - Improvement of ICT in Data Collection
• Each handheld computer was equipped with:
 Enumeration Area Map;
 list of addresses developed during pre-census operation (for the
urban EA);
 short and long form questionnaires;
 GPS;
 summary information collected to facilitate monitoring
enumerator’s work.
• The GPS receiver allowed georeferecing of units in the rural areas
as well the monitoring of the field operation.
Improvement of Data Collection structure
Data Collection
- 7000 Census Data Collection Stations or Census Local Offices
(spread over 5565 municipalities in Brazil);
- 220000 handheld computers for supervision and data collection.
Regional Coordination
- 27 Regional (States) Coordinators for each subject (technical;
operational; administrative and ICT);
- 220 Operational Area Coordinators;
- 1,281 Sub-Area Coordinators.
Note: 1,432 ICT technicians, in the Sub-Area level Coordination,
have offered support on all ICT local subjects at the Data
Collection Stations.
2010 – Improvement of ICT infrastructure
• 7,000 Data Collection Stations
 Each Data Collection Stations was equipped with notebooks to
operate autonomously, connected or not, to the Internet;
 Interaction of handhelds computers was made solely on the
notebooks of the Collection Station;
 From this notebooks data were send to the Central
Processing;
 In Data Collection Stations without Internet connection,
communication with the Central Processing was done through
USB drives (flash drives) physically transporting lots of
information to some other point of Internet access.
Note: This infrastructure and related procedures were important to
avoid the serious problems faced in 2007 Census.
Impact of IT on quality of 2010 Census Data
 Field works: 1st August to 31st October 2010
 Last quality control supervisions: 1st – 24th November
 Imputation of population for “non-interviewd housing units”: 25th - 26th
Nov
 Release of first results: 29th November 2010
Benefits - Comparison: Census 2010 and 2000
Increase technology
The infrastructure of 2010 was fully digital, reaching from maps of
the operational base to the administrative and operational procedures.
Better quality information
The collection made ​with equipment minimized transcription
errors and accelerated processing of Census data (editing and
coding stages).
Lower cost per questionnaire collected
The use of a fully computerized collection, replacing traditional printed
questionnaires, don’t appreciate Census 2010 operation vis a vis
2000.
Release
The gain of time for the first release (around 1 month) was not so
substantial as compared with 2000, but the following releases have
presented or are expected to be presented one year earlier than was
possible for 2000 Census.
Comparison: Census 2010 x 2000
2000
Original budget
2010
R$ 631 million
R$ 1.379 million
R$ 1.198 million
R$ 1.379 million
Forms
45 million
57 million
Cost per form
R$ 26,32
R$ 24,20
Adjusted budget
Note: US$1.00 = R$1.75 (average 2010)
Impact of IT on Census 2010
Point of view of customers
Listen to users: 2010 Census a fundamental strategy
1) Discussing and defining questionnaires topics
One Advisory commission of high level Brazilian experts;
Meetings comprising users of a broad range of knowledge
among experts, policy makers, academic researchers, press.
2) Monitoring quality of territorial base data and data collection and
others territorial or socioeconomic conditions
Committees of Geography and Statistics for States and
Municipalities.
Evaluating Census 2010
Technology and costumer’s expectations
Listen to users – 2010 Census fundamental strategy
Users have contributed too with their point of view on:
Defining strategies;
Released data validation and analysis.
As users were strongly involved with the definition of various
aspects of Census and because they obtained a great comprehension
on technological advances implemented, they became more
demanding and created high expectations on quality and on getting
earlier results.
Evaluating Census 2010
Technology and expectations of users
Earlier and more refined information were reached.
Release Calendar 2010 vs 2000 – except for first release, similar
results were or are expected to be released almost one year in
advance.
Quality – due the technology in data collection, training, control and
supervision and editing procedures, first total population data
released in November was close by the definitive one published in
April 2012.
•
Brazilian Population
 First results released: Nov 29th, 2010 – Population: 190,732,694
 Final results released: April 29th,2011 – Population: 190,755,799
Evaluating Census 2010
Technology and expectations of users
These expectations are well exemplified by special needs of
preliminary data to support public policy, such as poverty elimination
and disability, caused IBGE define special procedures for releasing
Census 2010 results.
April 2012 – definitive data on population figures and some general
characteristics were published so were some preliminary data
obtained from the short questionnaire.
Evaluating Census 2010
Technology and expectations of users
Other information have been already published:
Digital map (enumerations areas);
Addresses File for Statistical Purposes;
Final version of the short questionnaire subjects;
Preliminary release on the data of the long form;
“Aglomerados Subnormais” – which will be highlighted on the
next slides.
2010 Census: Release plan
 April, 2012
•
2010 Population Census: sample results
•
2010 Population Census: microdata of the sample
 May, 2012
•
2010 Population Census: characteristics of the urban households and their
surroundings
 June, 2012
•
2010 Population Census: sample results - general population characteristics
 July, 2012
•
2010 Population Census: characteristics of the indigenous people
 September and November, 2012
•
2010 Population Census: sample results - thematic volumes
 December, 2012
•
2010 Population Census: Atlas
 2013
•
2010 Population Census: Methodology
Evaluating Census 2010
Impact of technology on data application
Conclusion
High quality worthwhile information can be generated from
Census 2010 data, joining technology and:
- clear geographical and statistical conceptual framework;
- improved processes;
- training;
- and users contribution.
“Aglomerados Subnormais”, as an example.
IBGE “Aglomerado Subnormal” conceptual
framework
It’s a set of at a minimum 51 deprived household, with weak
structure of housing construction, most of them without access to
essential public services or with no good attention relate to them,
with no regular occupation of the territory, set up in a disorderly
and dense way.
The challenge: portraying diversity
“Aglomerados Subnormais” – 2010 Census
•
Technological advances vs 2000: images of all country, new
hardware and software;
•
Specific staff for support, supervision and training;
•
Specific survey on “aglomerados subnormais” for territorial details;
•
Municipal Committees of Geography and Statistics – 350 meetings
on “aglomerados subnormais”;
•
Some advances on identification on areas with similarity with
“aglomerados subnormais” by municipal administrations.
Satelit images
• Satelit images of high resolution – advances on identification and delimitation
of “aglomerados subnormais”.
Macapá (AP)
Brazilian “Aglomerados Subnormais”
• 6329 “aglomerados subnormais” at 323 municipalities
•
11 425 644 of people (6% of total population)
• 3 224 529 households (5,6%)
Eletricity suply
Demographic Characteristics
Aglomerado Áreas regulares
0 a 14 anos
28,3%
21,5%
60 anos ou mais
6,1%
11,1%
Idade Média: Aglomerados – 27,9%
Áreas regulares – 32,7%
Thank you!
Marcia Quintslr
IBGE – Director of Surveys
marcia.quintslr@ibge.gov.br
Download