Statistics for Measuring Growth
and Structural Change
International Forum on Monitoring National Development
27-29 September 2011
Beijing, PRC
Douglas H. Brooks
Asian Development Bank
Traditional measures of growth and
structural change
National income
gross domestic product
gross national income
2
Employment and GDP
shares of industry
agriculture
manufacturing
services
But there are inherent limitations in these
measures
Growth: National income
(Stiglitz and Sen 2009)
•
•
•
•
3
Sustainability
Quality of products
Market development
Inequality
Structural Change:
Employment or GDP
by sector share
•
•
•
•
Factor endowments
Factor specificity
Informal sector
Competition
These limitations translate to inadequate
understanding of the process of structural
change and growth
• How endowments influence the optimal structure
of an economy and its growth pattern
• Channels through which binding constraints affect
structural change and growth
• The role of the informal sector in structural
change and growth
• The role of the government in structural change
and growth
4
Wish list:
How endowments influence the optimal structure and
growth pattern.
• Disaggregated accounting of factors of production
• Balance sheet of a country’s wealth
Channels through which binding constraints affect
structural change and growth.
• Market structure information of industries
• Regular firm and enterprise surveys
5
Wish list:
The role of the informal sector in structural change and
growth
• Regular Informality surveys (folded into LFS)
• Informality by industry
The role of the government in structural change
• Addressing market failures
o Time use surveys
o Addressing information asymmetry
o Market structure
o Policy coordination
o Risk protection (insurance, safety nets)
• Active industrial policy?
6
Meanwhile, conventional measures can
be complemented with other existing
indicators
• Focus on households (Stiglitz and Sen 2009)
o Wealth and disposable income
o Per capita vs. median income
• Information from household surveys
• Other indexes (ex. HDI)
7
The FIGI is one such effort
Inclusive Growth
Growth
•productive
jobs and
economic
opportunity
Access to
education, health,
and other social
services
Social
safety nets
Governance and Institutions
8
ADB’s “Framework for Inclusive Growth Indicators” presents
35 indicators of inclusive growth
http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Key_Indicators/
2011/pdf/KI2011-Special-Supplement.pdf
Other issues that can be addressed in the
short term are…
• Regularity of household surveys
• Expansion of existing household surveys
• Institutional quality indicators
9
In the medium and longer horizon…
• IOs and SUTs
• Balance sheet approach to the wealth of nations
• Disaggregated information on factors of
production
• Time use surveys
10
Thank you
dbrooks@adb.org