Monitoring Economic Development in Morocco Mohamed TAAMOUTI International Forum on Monitoring National Development: Issues and Challenges 27-29 September 2011, Beijing Outline Moroccan economic structure is changing Monitoring economic changes Monitoring employment Monitoring economic activity Main challenges 2 Moroccan economic structure is changing (1) Contribution to GDP 2010 1998 Agriculture; 14% Agriculture; 18% Services; 50% Industry; 25% Services; 54% Industry; 27% 3 Moroccan economic structure is changing (2) Some sectors are emerging (% of VA) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Construction, public works Telecommunications 4 Moroccan economic structure is changing (3) Employment structure (%) 47 25 46 45 20 43 42 15 41 Agriculture 44 40 10 39 38 5 37 Industry Constr. Pub. Wor. Services Agriculture 5 Moroccan economic structure is changing (4) Hidden impact of the crisis % of temporary jobs in 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total Employment New job creations 4,1 4,0 4,4 4,8 5,0 5,1 5,1 5,2 5,9 7,0 7,6 -87,1 -18,9 21,6 14,0 28,2 25,0 5,2 11,4 53,5 132,4 53,3 Unemployment rate (%) 13,4 12,3 11,3 11,5 10,8 11,1 9,7 9,8 9,6 9,1 9,1 How do we monitor economic changes? A continuously developing and improving national statistical system Statistical law in 1968 A decentralized system A tradition of secured funding of statistical activities Uses International standards (ILO, SCN93, classifications, BoP, financial statistics, etc.) Subscribed to IMF’s SDDS since 2005 Statistical capacity indicators of the WB (2010) : Overall score : 76% (65% for all developing countries) Methodology : 90% (56% for all developing countries) 7 Monitoring Employment A regular national employment survey : covering annually a sample of 1% of Moroccan households ; captures several aspects related to labor force, employment, unemployment, under employment, etc. The survey serves also as a platform for monitoring some basic social indicators (access to drinking water, electricity, etc.) The results are released on a quarterly and yearly basis. Employment is also captured through population censuses and different household surveys. 8 Monitoring economic activity A set of regular business, agriculture, trade, financial, … data collection. Economic census, Agriculture census; Yearly business surveys covering all economic sectors ; Public investment survey every 5 years; The yearly business survey is deepened every 5 years to capture the interrelations between different sectors : “economic structure survey” The results of the “economic structure survey” serve for GDP base year change every 5 years. 9 Monitoring economic activity On the basis of all censuses, surveys and administrative data : National accounts are compiled following SCN93 For some sectors satellite accounts are (or will be) compiled (tourism, agriculture, education, forests). A satellite account for households will be compiled on the basis of a new time use survey For emerging sectors, new surveys are launched to better take them into consideration in national accounts (NGO survey, time use survey). 10 Monitoring economic activity The informal sector For a more comprehensive coverage of economic activity in Morocco, informal sector surveys are carried out every 5 years. The objective : a more precise estimate of the contribution of this sector to employment and GDP. 39% 37% 1998 2007 16% Non Agr. employment 14% GDP 11 Main Challenges (1) Improve and formalize coordination between different components of the NSS. Promote evidence based decision-making through promoting the use of statistics. Develop data production at sub national levels. Development of administrative data. Development of business registers. 12 Main Challenges (2) Improving business surveys response rate. Developing a quality assurance framework. Developing environmental data collection framework and develop environmental accounting. 13 Thank You 谢谢 14