ALETA BOTTS
AGRICULTURAL POLICY OUTREACH DIRECTOR
UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE
HARDIN COUNTY FARM BUREAU – MARCH 27, 2013

MULTIPLE RACES HAPPENING AT THE SAME
TIME, ON DIFFERENT TRACKS

Appropriations Process

Farm Bill

“Grand Bargain”

Other Discussions – Regulatory decisions, immigration, and other noncontroversial issues

Source: Congressional Budget Office

BUDGET, DEFICITS, AND DEBT

Sequester brought on by Budget Control Act

Generally 5-8% across-the-board decrease

Includes all programs/payments except crop insurance,
Conservation Reserve Program, and SNAP

Continuing Resolution through September 30,
2013

Debt Limit Increase

LOOKING TOWARD 2014

President’s Budget proposal released just yesterday

Is this “President proposes and Congress disposes”?

A Simplified Overview of Budget Authorization and
Appropriations Process
OMB and
Exec. Agencies
President's Budget
(Late Jan.)
Congress
Budget
Committees
Budget
Resol.
(Apr. 15)
Recommendations
(March 15)
Authorizing
Committees
Authorizing
Bills (May 15)
Appropriations
Committees &
Subcommittees
Adopted Budget
Resolution
Appropriations Bills
Floor
Tax Committees
Final Budget
Through Conference
Committee
(Oct 1)

WHERE THE “FARM BILL”
SPENDING GOES
Farm Bill Spending by Major Categories
Commodity Programs
Conservation Programs
Export, Research, Other
Crop Insurance
Nutrition
Source: CBO Baseline 2013

THE FARM BILL TRACK
The 2008 Farm Bill extended for one crop year.

Commodity Programs

Conservation Programs

Other Programs
Within Tax Bill
How did we get to January 1 without a farm bill???

FARM BILL ACTION IN 2012
 Senate passes the Agriculture Reform, Food, and Jobs
Act (ARFJA?) on June 21 by a vote of 64-35.
$970 billion over ten years, $23.1 billion saved
 House Agriculture Committee passes the Federal
Agriculture and Risk Management Act (FARRM) on July
11 by a vote of 35-11.
$958 billion over ten years, $35.1 billion saved

COMPARISON OF SENATE AND HOUSE NUMBERS
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

$
$
SENATE: $23.1 billion saved
Title I (Commodities): -$19.4 billion
Title II (Conservation): -$6.4 billion
Title IV (Nutrition): -$4.0 billion
Title VI (Rural Devt): +$115 million
Title VII (Research): +$681 million
Title IX (Energy): +$780 million
Title X (Horticulture): +$360 million
Title XI (Crop Ins): +$5.04 billion
Title XII (Misc): -$319 million

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
HOUSE: $35.1 billion saved
Title I (Commodities): -$23.6 billion
Title II (Conservation): -$6.15 billion
Title IV (Nutrition): -$16.0 billion
Title VI (Rural Devt): +$105 million
Title VII (Research): +$546 million
Title IX (Energy): +$0 million
Title X (Horticulture): +$435 million
Title XI (Crop Ins): +$9.5 billion
Title XII (Misc): +$50 million
Where does the rubber hit the road?
• Commodities
• Crop Insurance
• Nutrition
• Bottom Line Number

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2012?
House Agriculture
Committee reports bill
 Senate Agriculture
Committee reports bill
House passes bill on the floor
Senate passes bill on the floor

Senate and House conference to resolve differences between the bills
House passes bill on the floor
Senate passes bill on the floor

Conference report presented to
President for either signature or veto.

THE LOST YEAR
Inability to reach the magic number in the
House
Lack of support where it is most needed
Election Year
No bills moving
Fiscal Cliff –
The Good and the Bad

Effect: The simplest one-year “Farm Bill”

THE NEW YEAR’S FARM BILL BABY
How did THIS BILL become the farm bill?

WORKING TOWARD A 2013 FARM BILL
Marketing Quota announcement from USDA
But how much???

COMPARISON OF SENATE AND HOUSE NUMBERS
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

$
$
SENATE: $23.1 billion saved
Title I (Commodities): -$19.4 billion
Title II (Conservation): -$6.4 billion
Title IV (Nutrition): -$4.0 billion
Title VI (Rural Devt): +$115 million
Title VII (Research): +$681 million
Title IX (Energy): +$780 million
Title X (Horticulture): +$360 million
Title XI (Crop Ins): +$5.04 billion
Title XII (Misc): -$319 million

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
HOUSE: $35.1 billion saved
Title I (Commodities): -$23.6 billion
Title II (Conservation): -$6.15 billion
Title IV (Nutrition): -$16.0 billion
Title VI (Rural Devt): +$105 million
Title VII (Research): +$546 million
Title IX (Energy): +$0 million
Title X (Horticulture): +$435 million
Title XI (Crop Ins): +$9.5 billion
Title XII (Misc): +$50 million
NEW NUMBERS as of February 2013:
Senate bill now saves only $13 billion.
House bill now saves only $26.6 billion.

IS THE OUTLOOK BETTER OR WORSE?
Inability to reach the magic number in the House
Lack of support where it is most needed
Election
Year
No bills moving
Fiscal
Cliff
Debt Limit
Increase
Spending
Cuts Trigger
More
Spending
Cuts

LOOKING AHEAD: SHOULD WE CHANGE THE WAY WE PASS FARM BILLS?
139 Districts
Source: Lexington Herald-Leader, July 28, 2011


“As the urban population has increased, however, the majority of Americans have come to be completely divorced from the land and, as a result, the general public understanding of agriculture and its problems has declined.” by
Murray Benedict, 1953, Farm Policies of the
United States, 1790-1950

DATES TO KEEP IN MIND

May – Debt limit expected to be hit, with increased needed by July. Negotiations center around additional spending cuts

September 30 – End of the fiscal year

December 31 – Another expiration of farm programs

MANY OTHER ISSUES AT PLAY

Farm Labor Issues

Food Safety and Meat Inspection
THE GRAND BARGAIN QUESTION???

FINAL THOUGHTS
Policymakers are only as good as the information they are provided and are only as responsive as their constituents demand.

QUESTIONS, COMMENTS,
SUGGESTIONS, AND YOUR
ANSWERS…

Follow up: aleta.botts@uky.edu
or at agpolicy.uky.ag