CENTRAL STATISTICS ORGANIZATION (CSO) OF AFGHANISTAN` Afghanistan Status of implementation the 1993SNA Presenting by : Abdul Ghaias Zahir Contents Introduction Coverage Economical information Framework Periodicity Compilation approaches Sources, methods, and compilation issues of National Accounts (Sectors) Challenges Ahead Introduction The GDP data provides an overview of the Afghanistan’s economy and examines the composition of economic activates, and of the interaction between the different economic entities. Afghanistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) is a basic measure of its economic performance. The United Nations System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA 1993) guidelines have been used for the compilation. Coverage Afghanistan’s economical activities are classified in to three following sectors: 1. Agriculture: which include, Cereals and others, Fruits and Livestock. 2. Industry: which include, Mining and quarrying, Manufacturing, Electricity, gas and water and Construction. 3. Services: which include, Wholesale & retail trade, restaurants & hotels, Transport, storage and communication, Finance, insurance, real estate and business, Ownership of dwellings, Community, social and personal services, Government services and Other services. Economical Information GDP in US$ (Mn) 18952 Population Growth 2.03 GDP/Capita (US$) 715 GDP Growth Rate 9.5 Inflation Rate 8.4 Life expectancy 44 Infant Mortality 111/1000 live births Maternal mortality Rate Afg/US$ 1600/100000 live births 45.70 درجه رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی GDP Growth rate 35 28.6 30 20 17.2 16.1 15 9.5 9.2 3.2 2.3 9.9 8.2 2.3 10 5 0 سال year %فیصدی 25 GDP in US $ (Mn) 20000 18000 18952 16343 16000 14000 12871 US $ 12000 10170 10000 8186 6633 8000 6000 10641 4523 4917 5619 4000 2000 0 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 year 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Framework Regular Activities: . GDP by industrial origin -Current price - Constant prices GDP by Expenditure categories at (CP) Sectoral Composition of GDP Annual percentage change GDP implicit deflator – a measure of inflation Other Activities 10 Periodicity GDP estimates are compiled annually on the Solar year basis ending March 20, e.g. for the year 1390 the covered period is from 21 March 2011 to 20 March 2012. The GDP estimates are published once a year in the Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook. Compilation Approaches i. PRODUCTION APPROACH ii. EXPENDITURE APPROACH Agriculture Agriculture is the most important sector in the economy with more then 80% of population actively involved in it. Due to the high level of Subsistence farming in Afghanistan. Crops Major crops: Minor crops: Intermediate Consumption: Rice, Wheat, barely , Sugarcane, Sugar beet Maize, etc. Pulses, Vegetables, Fruits, Oil seeds, potatoes , etc. Seeds, Fertilizer, Pesticides, Water, Transport Charges, etc. Sources: Provincial Agriculture & MOA,WFP &FAO (FAAM), Gross Value Added: Value of output including by-products (minus) Intermediate consumption Livestock Composition: Cattle and their products Poultry and their products Intermediate Consumption: Roughages (green and dry), Concentrates (Grains, Oilcakes), Grass & Grazing, salt, Medicines, etc. Sources: Livestock Ministry of Agriculture , FAO WFP etc. Gross Value Added: Value of output including by-products (minus) Intermediate consumption Fishing Composition: Fishing covers the catches of fish of all kinds. There is no large—scale commercial fishing in Afghanistan. Benchmark fishery data are based on CSO surveys. Intermediate Consumption: Salt, Ice, Fuel & Lubricants, Medicines, Chemicals, etc. and Auction Charges. Sources: Economic Statistics department, And CSO survey. Gross Value Added: Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption Forestry Composition: Intermediate Consumption: Forestry and logging includes: 1) logging, 2) charcoal, and 3) firewood Seeds, plantation, fertilizer, etc. Sources: Ministry of Agriculture Gross Value Added: Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption Mining & Quarrying Composition: Intermediate Consumption: Sources: Gross Value Added: Mining and quarrying cover the extracting and preparation for further processing of solids such as coal, natural gas, salt, sand, stone, gold, etc Ratio of IC / GO Ministry of Mine and Economics Statistics Departments. Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption Large-scale manufacturing Composition: Intermediate Consumption: Sources: Gross Value Added: Manufacturing in Afghanistan namely: Food, beverages, and tobacco, Textile, wood production, paper products ,etc. Ratio of IC / GO and also N/A add hoc survey Ministry of Mine and Economics Statistics Departments. Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption Electricity, gas distribution & water supply Composition: This group include the generation of hydro—power, and the transmission, of electricity. The manufacture of gas in gas works, and natural gas, and the production and distribution of water all belong to this group. Intermediate Consumption: Furnace Oil, Gas, Water, etc. Sources: The main source of data for this group is Ministry of Industry. Gross Value Added: The production approach (GO-IC) is used to get value added. Construction Composition: Sources: Intermediate Consumption: Gross Value Added: Construction consists of 1) modern public (rehabilitation, project in progress, and new projects) 2) modern private, 3) traditional. It include constructing, altering, repairing, buildings, houses, dams, highways, sewers, schools, hospitals, communication and transport lines, irrigation system, etc Administration report, ED of CSO and the in—house surveys. Data for traditional Construction are derived based on population number of household and cost of typical house in rural area. Average 55% IC/GO ratio Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption Transport, storage & communication Composition: Air transport, land Transport and services allied to transport, including storage and warehousing, and communication. Sources: Ministries of Transportation and communication CSO Department of Economy and National Accounts survey. Gross Value Added: On the basis of the production approach which is GO-IC = VA. Finance & insurance Composition: Sources: Gross Value Added: Finance sector covers financial institutions, monetary institutions, other financial institutions and financial services. Monetary institutions include DAB, commercial banks and other banks. From Money Exchange Association, DAB, and CSO. On the basis of the production approach which is GO-IC = VA. Wholesale & retail trade Composition: Sources: Value Added: All Agricultural, Industrial Produce: (Agri.40%, Ind.70% marketed) and Imports (50% of export and80%imports are for wholesale & retail trade) comes directly from the agricultural and industry sectors Total value of trade margins applied on the marketed portions of Agriculture and Industrial Output as well as Imports. Ownership of dwellings Coverage: Housing Units (rented as well as self occupied) and in urban and rural areas Sources: from the population, survey of average prices of dwelling, their average economic life, and the rent price index in the CPI Value Added: The value added is obtained by using GO-IC. Community, social & private services This group includes religion, local NGOs, private Composition: education and medical, recreational and culture services, consultants assistance, personal and household services, and lawyers Sources: Administration reports and the in-house survey. Gross Value Added: On the basis of the production approach which is GO-IC = VA. Sectoral Contribution of GDP Agriculture Industry Services 26.74 21.39 48.27 Taxes on imtorts 3.59 Agriculture 26.74 Services 48.27 Industry 21.39 27 Gross fixed capital formation Consists of additions to the fixed assets of the economy. Fixed assets cover land improvements ,plant, machinery and equipment (durable goods) purchases; the construction of roads and the like, including commercial and industrial buildings, offices, schools, hospitals, and private residential dwellings. Expenditures approach Total final consumption expenditure is the sum of private and government consumption. Government consumption data are drawn directly from the national budget. Currently GDP by expenditure only at current price compiled, by indirect method of carry over the GDP from production side and making the private consumption or (final consumption expenditure of household) as residual including data discrepancies and change in stocks. Challenges Ahead Lack of Capacity especially in view of implementation of Afghanistan National Statistical Plan and SRF. Lack of physical and communication infrastructure especially in the provinces. Lack of statistical capacity in some ministries and departments to provide administrative data. Multiplicity of data providers and their non-coordination with CSO although required by the Statistical law. Lack of awareness about the importance of data at all levels. Lack of up to date topographic maps and satellite images Poor Response. Extrapolations and Estimations. Lack of data. Weakness and shortcoming of reporting system. Insufficient basic detailed data, especially disaggregating in to institutional level. Data collection of informal activity especially in the provinces.