Agenda item 6b United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division Goods for processing and merchanting Presentation by UNECE Workshop on Implementation of the 2008 SNA Kiev, 29 November - 2 December 2011 Outline Background Goods for processing Merchanting Global production 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 2 Background The Guide “The Impact of Globalization on National Accounts” available from: http://www.unece.org/stats/groups/wggna.e.html Chapter 5: Goods for processing Chapter 6: Merchanting Russian translations of the April 2010 versions of these chapters are available as papers 3 and 4 from: http://www.unece.org/stats/documents/2010.04.sna.html 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 3 Main characteristics Goods for processing Physical flow but no change in ownership Merchanting Change 23 July 2016 in ownership without receipt of goods - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 4 Goods for processing Sending materials or partly-finished goods to another enterprise for (significant) processing It has become more common with low transport costs specialization among enterprises the emergence of new production sources The enterprise processing the items may be resident in the same country as its client, or it may be abroad In most cases no actual change of ownership takes place and goods remain in the books of the principal Minor transformation (packing, labeling) that does not change the physical form of the goods is not processing 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 5 SNA 1993 & BPM5 A change of ownership is imputed in all cases when sending goods for further processing abroad and to affiliated domestic establishments Even if the related financial transactions cover only processing fees, national accounts compilers need to impute transactions for the value of the goods when they are sent and subsequently returned to the legal owner Anomaly: No imputation for transactions between non-affiliated domestic establishments 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 6 SNA 2008 & BPM6 Sending of goods for processing without imputing a change in ownership Only a service fee for the processing work is to be recorded in the accounts Complies with the principle of recording trade flows only where actual ownership of the goods changes Will be at odds with the gross recording of goods shown in the International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS) Removes an anomaly related to the treatment of goods sent for processing within the same economy (nonaffiliated firms) and goods sent for processing abroad 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 7 1993 SNA recording (‘gross’) Country A Intermediate Goods 100 Principal Country B Processor Processed Goods 160 Semi-processed goods from country A to country B for significant transformation and back to country A as final products Flows are recorded in the accounts as imports and exports of goods, but the only real financial flow is a processing fee of 30 Inconsistency with financial flows and company accounts No actual change in ownership Requires imputing a change of ownership Increases the value of the IMTS 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 8 2008 SNA recording (‘net’) (Processing fee 60) Principal Processor Services 60 Semi-processed goods from country A to country B for significant transformation and back to country A as final products Flows are recorded in the accounts as imports and exports of services More consistent with financial actions No actual change in ownership No imputing a change of ownership Inconsistency with IMTS 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 9 Industry account under the 1993 SNA and 2008 SNA Processor (Country B) Principal (Country A) 1993 SNA 2008 SNA 1993 SNA 2008 SNA Gross output Goods (manufacturing) Services (wholesaling) Intermediate inputs Goods for processing All other goods Processing fees (services) All other services Value added 23 July 2016 160 100 20 10 30 100 180 60 20 20 50 50 20 50 60 20 50 10 30 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 10 Commodity accounts under the 1993 SNA and 2008 SNA: country of the contractor Country B 1993 SNA Goods for processing Goods processed Processing fees 2008 SNA Goods for processing Goods processed Processing fees 23 July 2016 Supply Production Imports 100 Intermediate inputs Use Exports Inventories Other final demand 100 160 160 NA NA 60 60 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 11 How the accounts will be affected? The new treatment should in principle not affect value added, GDP and total trade balance (the change of the trade balance in goods should be off-set by a change in services balance), but a different way of measurement may change the outcome: If the imputed value of goods (notably when sent back to their owner after processing) was wrongly capturing part of the profit of the owner If double counting of the service fees in both goods and services occurred 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 12 How the accounts will be affected? Effect on trade in goods and services may be sizeable Shouldn’t affect GDP and total trade balance Implications for the import intensity of GDP The production account ratios, SU and IO coefficients will change and compilers should be careful when using them for adjustments and analysis Productivity measures – contribution of an industry to GDP growth will be unaffected, but the output and intermediate input structure will change and hence multifactor productivity models There could be changes in the balance sheet and capital account (the processing unfinished in the end of the period should be moved from the accounts of the processor to the accounts of the owner) Implications for environmental accounting - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 13 Other issues Matching with IMTS data (principle of ownership) Price deflators • Different output and IC deflators will be needed for traditional and processor type producers • Price of the final product and the “price” of the processing service are unlikely to move in line Sampling • If a processor is chosen in the sample and its production ratios are used to be make estimates for the whole industry and vice versa – volatility of time series due to over or under estimation in different periods • Processors will have less chances or will not be selected if the sampling is based on turnover instead of VA Inventories abroad • The principals will hold substantial amounts of unfinished goods and raw materials abroad • Difficult to value and treat correctly holding gains and losses 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 14 Merchanting “…the purchase of a good by a resident of the compiling economy from a non-resident and the subsequent resale of the good to another nonresident; during this process the good does not enter or leave the compiling economy.” (BPM5) 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 15 1993 SNA & BPM5 Merchanting is calculated as the value of the goods sold (estimated at basic prices) less the cost of purchasing them Merchanting margin is classified as an export of merchanting services The detection and regular recording of these activities is extremely challenging for the country where the merchant is resident 23 July 2016 The goods in question never cross the frontier of the country where the merchant is resident and are therefore not covered by the official trade statistics there - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 16 Shortcomings in 1993 SNA & BPM5 Merchanting margin is recorded under services (merchant), related gross transactions are recorded in the goods account (counterparties) Global imbalance in the goods account Treatment is inconsistent with inventories and balance sheets for both merchant and supplier Valuation principles are not consistent with Supply and Use tables Only the margin is recorded in the balance of payments of the country of merchant No clear definitions are provided for "merchanting" and "merchant" in the 1993 SNA and BPM5 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 17 2008 SNA & BPM6 The concept is the same, but an important change in treatment appears (the principle of change of ownership) Merchanting will be recorded in the country of the merchant as a negative export of goods when acquiring them, and as a positive export when they are sold on Merchanting margin is the difference between the two entries and is called “Net exports of goods under merchanting” Merchanting entries are valued at transaction prices as agreed by the parties, not at "free on board“ prices In the SU tables the difference between sales and purchases of merchanted goods is production of a service in the merchant's economy, consistently with the treatment of margins applied to domestically produced goods 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 18 Impact of 2008 SNA & BPM6 All merchanting transactions are in the goods account help to remove the discrepancy between global exports and imports “Net exports of goods under merchanting” includes merchants' margins, holding gains and losses and changes in inventories of goods under merchanting However, holding gains and losses should be excluded from trade margins in national accounts Data sources may not allow it Treatment of the wholesale/retail margin and the holding gains/losses is consistent with the measurement in SU tables In individual country level drawback remains in the balance of payments recording of merchanting margin The BPM6 contains a discussion of the economic nature of merchanting 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 19 Identification and recording of merchanting activities An entity solely involved in merchanting normally employs a relatively small staff while having substantial turnover MNEs sometimes engage in merchanting in conjunction with the production of other goods or services Capturing through a specific question on sales and purchases of merchanted goods Analysis of administrative data: Large taxable profits but no substantial physical presence Large profits without having exports of goods Awareness of MNE practices and recording conventions Term "merchanting" is generally not used by MNEs More difficult to detect the activity 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 20 Merchanting Merchant in country A purchases goods from country B and sells to country C Country B producer Country C purchaser 80 100 Physical movement of goods/services Ownership of goods Country A merchant 23 July 2016 Cash flow - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 21 Treatment under the 1993 SNA and BPM5 and recording in the 2008 SNA and BPM6 1993 SNA / BPM5 treatment Credit Debit Country A Services: merchanting Bank deposits Country B Goods Bank deposits Country C Goods Bank deposits Global balance* Goods Services: merchanting Bank deposits 2008 SNA / BPM6 treatment Credit 20 20 80 80 100 100 80 20 100 100 100 Country A Goods under merchanting Goods under merchanting Bank deposits Country B Goods Bank deposits Country C Goods Bank deposits Global balance Goods Incl. goods under merchanting Bank deposits Debit 100 -80 20 80 80 100 100 100 20 100 100 0 100 *Merchanting is recorded only in country A (the exporter of merchanting services). This causes global imbalances in goods and services as no debit entry in merchanting is recorded. 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 22 Global production Cross-border processing and merchanting operations have been long conducted by traditional producers and trading companies MNEs engage in operations with characteristics of both Such practices are a feature of global production 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Slide 23 Global production Materials Materials Principal Processing fee Country A Knowhow Processor Country B Payment for final products 23 July 2016 - UNECE Statistical Division Final products Slide 24