Agenda item 6d
MEASURMENT OF NONOBSERVED ECONOMY
IN THE NATIONAL
ACCOUNTS OF UKRAINE
MOSKVIN Aleksey Alekseyevich
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic statistics
Workshop on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA,
Kiev, 29 November – 2 December 2011
Classification of non-observed economy
«Measurement of non-observed economy» Manual
OECD, IMF, ILO, CIS-STAT 2002.
Non-observed economy
Underground
Statistical
reasons
Economic
reasons
MisNonNot in
Liquidation
response the lists
reporting
Т1
Т2
Т3
Т4
Informal
Illegal
Other
Т6
Т7
Т8
Not registered
Т5
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
2
Data Sources and Assessment Methods
Corporations
Statistical Reasons Т1, Т2, Т3
Structural business statistics data on reasons
for not reporting to surveys
 Т1 – not reporting (delays in reporting) – 0.01%
of output
 Т2 – not founded at address (but were active
and had sales) – 0.8% of output
 Т3 – bankruptcy, liquidation, suspension of
operations (but were active and had sales) –
0.3% of output
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
Data Sources and Assessment Methods
Corporations
Т4 Misreporting
1. Structural business statistics data on output per one employed
 Output per one employed in small enterprises is 48% of large and
medium-size ones
2. Data of business activity surveys
 What is the level of underground production in your industry?
3. Data of labour statistics surveys
 Ratio of the recorded wage earners and unofficial employees
(10.3% in total, in construction– 43%, in trade– 19%, in transport–
16%, agriculture – 13%)
4. Total adjustment is 10.2% of NFC output
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
Data Sources and Assessment Methods
Households
Т5 Non-Registration, Т6 Informal Sector,
Т8 Production for Own Consumption and Tips
Data Sources
 production by households (agriculture statistics)
 goods turnover of trade and turnover of individuals entrepreneurs in the restaurant
industry, goods turnover of informal markets (trade statistics)
 individual housing construction (investment statistics – estimate by administrative data
on number of permits for construction)
 repair of housing (estimate by amount of purchases of construction materials)
 output estimate of goods and services by amount of purchases in the market and from
citizens (households living conditions surveys)
 imputed rent (stratified estimate by living area and rent price data)
 education and health care services (estimate by number of students and surgeries)
 SUBSTRACT registered personal income of employers (National Tax Office)
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
Data Sources and Assessment Methods
Households
Т5 Non-Registration, Т6 Informal Sector,
T8 Production for Own Consumption and Tips
Allocation by types
 Ratio of not-registered employees (Т5 nonregistration) and self-employed, and
entrepreneur's family members (Т6 informal
sector) according to labour statistics
 Agricultural production for own consumption,
tips in transport, hotels and restaurants are
included in Т8 type
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
Non-Observed Economy by Industries
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
NACE
Agriculture (A,B)
9.2
9.3
8.0
7.2
6.2
5.2
4.5
3.9
4.2
Industry (C,D,E)
2.6
3.3
3.0
3.7
4.1
3.8
4.7
3.7
3.5
Construction(F)
0.7
0.6
0.6
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.7
1.2
1.0
Trade (G,H)
2.3
2.8
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.6
2.7
4.0
4.6
Transport and
communications
(I)
0.3
0.6
0.6
1.4
1.0
1.1
0.3
0.5
0.6
Others (J- P)
1.0
1.1
1.5
2.0
2.3
2.3
1.6
1.8
2.7
16.3
17.7
17.2
18.9
18.1
17.3
15.5
15.1
16.7
Total in % to
GDP
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
Non-Observed Economy by Industries
20
% in GDP
15
10
5
0
2001
Other
2002 2003 2004
Transport and communic.
2005
Trade
2006
Construction
2007
2008
Industry
2009
Agriculture
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
8
Non-observed economy by type
Statistical
reasons
Economic
reasons
Informal and
other
Т1, Т2, Т3
Т4, Т5
Т6, Т8
2002
1,2
6,3
10,2
17,7
2003
1,3
7,3
8,6
17,2
2004
1,1
9,7
8,1
18,9
2005
0,6
8,9
8,5
18,1
2006
0,7
10,6
6,0
17,3
2007
0,9
9,7
5,0
15,5
2008
0,8
9,6
4,7
15,1
2009
0,8
10,7
5,1
16,7
Total
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
9
Non-observed economy by type
% GDP
20
15
Statistical
reasons
10
Economic
reasons
Informal and
other
5
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
10
Т7 Illegal Activities
Estimate of Illegal Activities by type :
 prostitution
 drug production and distribution
 smuggled goods
 illegal alcohol production
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
Illegal Activity
Data Sources
 Ministry of Internal Affair (withdrawn drugs, thefts, penal
sanctions for law violation)
 Customs Service (confiscated contraband property)
 Data from International Institutions (for example, WHO on
consumption of alcohols, tobacco, drugs)
 Mass media and specialized research
 Statistical sources (production statistics, foreign trade
statistics, surveys of household living conditions)
 Own assumptions (rate of drugs confiscation by type)
 Balances in kind and in value on the production and
consumption of goods and services
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
Illegal Activity
Estimated Transactions in the SNA






output
intermediate consumption
GVA
including compensation of employees
household consumption
exports and imports
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
Prostitution
 Estimate of the number of employed and quantity of the
services rendered (based on consumption)
 Stratification by price of services
 Estimate of the value of services
 Estimate of intermediate consumption
 Export is estimated using the number of residents
abroad and the share of prostitutes in population
 Import is not assessed because of its minor importance
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
Drug Production and Distribution
 Estimated number of users
 Stratification by types of drugs used
 Assessment of average consumption and prices
 Estimate of household expenditures
 Allocation of estimated consumption to domestics
output, import and trade margin, estimate of
intermediate consumption
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
Smuggling
 Value of smuggled goods is estimated using the value
of confiscated goods and own assumptions (% of
confiscated to total)
 Additional data from the Customs Service on the
estimated illegal export of alcohol and tobacco, and
import of drugs
 Output = trade margin (% of value of smuggled goods)
 Intermediate consumption - % of output
 Labour compensation - % of valued added
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
Illegal Alcohol Production
 Source data– consumption of absolute alcohol
according to WHO
 Supply and demand are balanced in kind and in value
terms for 4 types of alcohol products:
Output + import = export + household consumption
 The imbalances are allocated to:
- underreporting of data
- production for own final use by households
- illegal alcohol production
- illegal import
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
Итоги по типам деятельности
(производственный метод, % от ВВП)





Проституция – 0,3%
Производство и распространение
наркотиков – 0,1%
Контрабанда товаров – 0,7%
Нелегальное производство
алкоголя – 1,1%
Всего – 2,2%
МОСКВИН Алексей Алексеевич
Заместитель директора департамента Макроэкономической статистики
18
Promising Trends to Extend the
Coverage of Illegal Activity Assessment
 resale of stolen property
 unlicensed (illegal) medical practices
 poaching
 production and trade in unauthorized copies of
artistic originals; software, CDs and videos
 human trafficking
 money laundering
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics
Thank you !
Aleksey Alekseyevich MOSKVIN
Deputy Director of Macroeconomic Statistics