African Development Bank Group
Statistics Department, ESTA
AfDB Work programme in
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
Adalbert Nshimyumuremyi
Chief Statistician, ESTA.2
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
Outline
I.
Historical background: From 2005 ICP-Africa …
to … AGNA
II. ICP Sustainability in Africa: One of the pillars of
2008 SNA Implementation Strategy in Africa
III. 2011 ICP Round National Accounts Activities
IV. Way Forward: Provide TA to Countries and
coordinate 2008 SNA Implementation Strategy in
Africa
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
African Development Bank Group
Statistics Department, ESTA
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
Overview of the International
Comparison Program (ICP)
Purpose
Generate Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) for
cross country comparisons of GDP and related
aggregates
Collection of prices for well-defined basket of
goods & services
Approach
Compilation of harmonized National Accounts
(GDP breakdown according to basic headings)
Use of internationally accepted statistical
methods and processes
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
2005 ICP-Africa Challenges
In 2003, an assessment of 49 countries statistical
systems allowed to identify challenges for the
implementation of ICP 2005 in Africa.
Different level of statistical development in National
accounts and price statistics at country level:
-
Lack of qualified staff
Lack of equipment
Lack of financial resources
Few of countries implementing the 1993 SNA
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
2005 ICP-Africa Challenges
(Cont’d)
Hence a sound regional program was design with following
objectives:
Overall Objective: Determination of PPPs to facilitate crosscountry comparisons of GDP expenditures and meet the
demand for reliable and timely data
Specific Objective 1: Strengthen national statistical capacity in
price and national accounts
Specific Objective 2: Make ICP an integral part of national
statistical systems
Specific Objective 3: Facilitate cross-country comparisons of
price levels, and economic aggregates in real terms
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
ICP-Africa:
A Capacity Building Exercise
Help countries
produce required
expenditure weight
data
Increased reliability
of national
accounts
Broad base
partnership
Long-term quality
improvement
objectives
•Assess country capacity
•Develop a general framework
•Step-by-step guidelines
•Consistency with official estimates
•Great detail of expenditures
•200 basic categories
•Country level
•Sub-regional & regional support
•International partnership
•Meta data questionnaire;
•Exchange of best practices;
•Participatory process
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
AfDB contribution
to ICP-Africa 2005
Financial Contributions
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Millions US $
ACBF
ADB
Group
African
Countrie
s
DFIDUK
India
Japan
World
Bank
1
28.17
3.48
1
0.1
0.665
3
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
Historical ICP Participation
(Global & Africa: 1970-2005)
160
147
Total Countries
140
117
African Countries
120
100
80
64
60
60
48
34
40
20
10
16
15
1
1
4
1970
1973
1975
23
22
1985
1993
0
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
1980
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
2005
ICP-Africa 2005 Objectives relating
to GDP expenditures estimates
 Produce GDP estimates broken down by broad expenditure categories
over the past 10 years;
 Have GDP expenditure broken down by 200 basic headings for the
reference year 2005;
 Strengthen capacity to allow for mainstreaming ICP activities into the
regular activities of the National Statistical Offices (NSO) and the
curricula of statistical training centers.
Relevant activities were carried out or initiated in compliance with the 1993
SNA framework.
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
2005 ICP-Africa contribution to
1993 SNA Implementation in Africa
Independent Evaluation of 2005 ICP-Africa: to evaluate the
performance of the program against the goals, objectives and targets
set
Before ICP
During ICP After ICP
Our country meets UN Minimum Requirements
related to the implementation of the 1993 SNA
68%
91%
91%
The production boundary has been revised in
compliance with the 1993 SNA
60%
81%
86%
GDP related tables and accounts are compiled using
1993 SNA requirements on supply and use tables
37%
70%
71%
Our methodologies for GDP computation comply with
international standards and norms
77%
91%
96%
Our methods to analyze benchmark survey data are
consistent with the 1993 SNA requirements
68%
83%
88%
Our country has shifted from 1968 SNA to 1993 SNA
60%
80%
83%
Our country includes GDP breakdown into detailed
expenditure categories, in the publication of national
accounts
21%
45%
68%
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
From 2005 ICP-Africa …
to … AGNA
2008 Accra Resolution on ICP Africa:
- ICP Sustanabiliy: Mainstreaming ICP in NSO
work program
- AfDB to lead the ICP-Africa process towards
Computation of PPP on annual basis starting
from 2009
Success of
2005 ICP-Africa
Round
AGNA
Meetings
-
AGNA 1: Lusaka, 07-11 April 2008
AGNA 2: Tunis, 02-04 July 2008
AGNA 3: Durban, 12-13 August 2008
AGNA 4: Addis-Ababa, 21-23 October 2009
AGNA 5: Dakar, 20-22 November 2009
AGNA 6: East London, 7-12 December 2009
STATCOM-Africa II, January 2010
AGNA 8: Yaoundé, 13-15 December 2010
AGNA 9: Addis-Ababa, 11-15 April 2011
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
African Development Bank Group
Statistics Department, ESTA
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
2009 & 2010 ICP- Africa
Exercises
• Challenges: Compute PPPs on yearly basis (ICP
sustainability)
• Reduced ICP ressources provided to countries
• Inclusion of the price component of ICP-Africa within the NSOs’
routine price activities. Having an intersection with a good number
of CPI products is one of the conditions of ICP-Africa sustainability
since it allows countries to optimize their resources in undetaking
both activities
• Change in ICP teams in countries (retrain NSO staff)
• Detailed GDP breackdown series (2005-2009)
• PPP computation for 2009 underway – First results espected in
September 2011
• Price data collected for ICP 2010 exercise & GDP breackdown for
2010 under preparation
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
Adopting SUT for ICP:
Objectives & Strategy
Objectives
To ensure consistency and comparability of
GDP Expenditures and detailed expenditure
weights for ICP-Africa PPP compilation
needs
• A framework has been designed in 2004 for ICP
Strategy
2005 but was not properly implemented
• Implementation of SUT compilation by phases
• Developed prototype supply and use matrix
(nxm)
• Conduct of data review workshops
• Provision of technical advice countries
• Constant monitoring of the status of
compilation
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
ICP-Africa & 2008 SNA
Implementation Strategy
Line 2. Strengthening ICP-Africa assets in the field
of National Accounts work
Strategic Objective 2.1: Increasing the ability of
African countries to master ICP-Africa, so as to make it
the basis for routine national accounts work
2.1.1. Integration of the GDP breakdown into the 1993 SNA national
accounts routine work
2.1.2. Publication and popularization of the GDP breakdown
methodology
2.1.3. Development and publication of an African annual report on GDP
breakdown into basic headings
2.1.4. Technical Assistance to ICP-Africa non participants countries
2.1.5. Assistance to fragile States and small island developing countries
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
ICP-Africa & 2008 SNA
Implementation Strategy
Line 2. Strengthening ICP-Africa assets in the field
of National Accounts work
Strategic Objective 2.2: Developing an African System for
the annual production of macro-economic aggregates and
Price statistics for the calculation of purchasing power parities
2.2.1. Elaboration of product lists for each Regional Economic
Community (REC)
2.2.2. Enhance the validation of GDP expenditures and national
accounts for each REC member countries
2.2.3. Compute, on an yearly basis, purchasing power parities
for each REC and at the regional level
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
African Development Bank Group
Statistics Department, ESTA
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
National accounts Framework
for the 2011 ICP
The purpose of the Framework is to
ensure optimal consistency between ICP
surveys and processing and the System
of National Accounts
Therefore, national accountants will work
together with price statisticians to cross
check their respective products and
prices
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
ICP 2011 National Accounts
Global Timetable
2010
2011
Major aggregates for latest
year possible
J N
BH details for final cons.
aggregates for latest year
possible
J
Values for all BHs
Preliminary data for 2010
Major aggregates for 2011
BH values for 2011
N
2012
2013
J N
J
J
J O
M
J O
M
M= May; J= July; O= October; N=November
2
ICP 2011 National Accounts
Global Timetable - Milestones
DATE / MILESTONE
ACTIVITY / OUTPUTS
July 2010
Major aggregates for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009
Basic heading details for final consumption aggregates (for 2008 or the latest
possible year)
November 2010
Major aggregates (revised) for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009
Values for all basic headings for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009
July 2011
Major aggregates (revised data for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009), preliminary data for 2010
All basic headings for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 (preliminary)
July 2012 – preliminary
data for 2011 for initial
results for 2011
Major aggregates for 2011
All basic headings for 2011 (best possible estimate)
October 2012 – data for preliminary
ICP results
Major aggregates for 2011 (any revisions since July 2012)
All basic headings for 2011 (any revisions since July 2012)
December 2012
Data review workshop in each region to consider the full set of ICP results based on
the semi-final national accounts data
May 2013 – final data for published
ICP results
Major aggregates for 2011 (any revisions since October 2012)
All basic headings for 2011 (any revisions since October 2012)
October 2013
2011 ICP results released
ICP 2011 National Accounts
Timetable - Workshops (Cont’d)
DATE
VENUE
WORKSHOP
14-25 June 2010
Nairobi, Kenya
1st ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2009 GDP Breakdown, Validation &
2011 GDP Breakdown guidelines
30 August-3September 2010
Hammamet, Tunisia
2nd ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2009 GDP Breakdown, Validation &
2011 GDP Breakdown guidelines
9-12 May 2011
Tunis, Tunisia
5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS,
ECOWAS, SADC): Preliminary data for 2010
13-17 June 2011
Accra, Ghana or
Rabat, Morocco
3rd ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2010 GDP Breakdown: Preliminary
data 2010, SUT approach, Specific Surveys
November 2011
Dakar, Senegal
4th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2010 GDP Breakdown: Revised data &
ICP 2011 Specific Surveys data validation
ICP 2011 National Accounts
Timetable - Workshops (Cont’d)
DATE
VENUE
WORKSHOP
April 2012
TBD by REC/SRO
5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS,
ECOWAS, SADC): Preliminary data for 2011 & ICP 2011 Specific Surveys
data validation
June 2012
Marakesh, Morocco
5th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2011 GDP Breakdown: Preliminary
data
September 2012
TBD by REC/SRO
5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS,
ECOWAS, SADC): Revised data for 2011 & ICP 2012 Specific Surveys
data validation
December 2012
Abidjan, Côte
d’Ivoire
6th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2011 GDP Breakdown: Revised data
February 2013
TBD by REC/SRO
5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS,
ECOWAS, SADC): Preliminary data for 2012 & ICP 2011 Final Results
May 2013
Yaoundé,
Cameroon
7th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2011 GDP Breakdown: Final data &
Preliminary data for 2012
August 2013
TBD by REC/SRO
5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS,
ECOWAS, SADC): Revised data for 2012 & ICP 2013 Specific Surveys
data validation
October 2013
Kigali, Rwanda
8th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2012 GDP Breakdown: Final data & ICP
2013 Specific Surveys data validation
African Development Bank Group
Statistics Department, ESTA
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
The Way Forward
 Implementation of ICP-Africa Programme
 Provide Technical Assistance to Countries
 Contribute to 2008 SNA Implementation
Strategy Coordination in Africa
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011
Asante
Choukran…
Merci…
Thank you…
9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011