International Seminar of Early Warning and
Business Cycle Indicators
Moscow, 17-19 November 2010
BTS in the Agricultural
Sector in Ukraine
Maryna Pugachova
Scientific & Technical Complex for Statistical
Research
of State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
BTS in Ukraine
Since 1997 (quarterly):

industry;
constructions;
retail trade;
transport;

agriculture;

investment survey.



Since 2010 - non-financial services sector
Organizers:


Scientific & Technical Complex for
Statistical Research;
State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
(SSCU).
Our functions are:




adopting of methodology;
designing of the questionnaires;
treatment of data (scanning &
completion data base);
preparing different analytical reviews
(news releases for Internet site, reports
for respondents, bulletins for
government).
SSCU functions are:




forming the samples in regions in
accordance with our methodological
recommendations;
distribution of questionnaires blanks;
collecting of completed questionnaires;
checking of the codes in questionnaires.
Sampling
On the basis of information concerning
enterprises from:
 administrative & statistical registers;
 some statistical forms.
Criteria
1) kinds of activity:

cattle-breeding,

plant-growing,

mixed agriculture;
2) size of enterprise must be more then
50 employed peoples.
3 sets of questions



Constant questions (including in each
survey).
Special questions concerning of Ukrainian
problems (regular – on the short period or
irregular).
Special questions concerning separate
phenomenon (occurrences): situation with
investment on enterprises, creating of the
groups of enterprises, shadow activity etc.
(often regular: 1 or 2 times a year for a few
consecutive years).
Main indicators & main tendencies
Change in the current / next quarter in relation to the
previous:
Production output, kind:
cattle-breeding
plant-growing
Volume of sales:
in Ukraine:
exports
Prices of products
Labor productivity
cattle-breeding
plant-growing
cattle-breeding
plant-growing
cattle-breeding
plant-growing
cattle-breeding
plant-growing
up
same
down
Demand in ІIІ quarter 2010
normal :
meat
milk
poul
try
eggs
fodder
crops
food
crops
42
41
3
3
63
55
insufficient due to :
Low quality of products
2
1
0
0
3
3
high price as a result of high internal
production cost
12
6
0
0
9
9
competition from analogous domestic
products
5
3
0
0
6
4
competition from analogous imported
products
6
1
0
0
1
1
Some other indicators
Set 1



Financial & economic performance
(level & changes in the current / next
quarter);
Competition from analogous products in
the current quarter in relation to the
previous one;
Bottlenecks.
Some other indicators
Set 2





Assessment of government policies in this year with
respect to stimuli for agricultural production (level);
Competition on Ukrainian market with Ukrainian and
foreign enterprises (level);
Where agricultural production (of the enterprises) is
realized (markets);
Output of the raw materials for production of biofuel
(yes/no);
Drawing up of the lax government credits (yes/no).
Some other indicators
Set 3




Competition with analogous products
(changes);
Investment (changes);
Investment limitations (%);
Directions of using investment (%).
2010
2009
2008
2007
Expected change
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
Reported change
2001
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
2000
balance, %
Change in the production output of cattle-breeding
(seasonally adjusted)
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
2000
balance, %
Change in sales on agricultural products of domestic origin inside
Ukraine (seasonally adjusted)
plant-growing
cattle-breeding
2010
2009
2008
Reported change
Expected change
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
2000
balance, %
Change in the financial & economic performance
(seasonally adjusted)
Debt on
compensation
1%
4%
none
shorter than 2 months
from 2 to 4 months
longer than 6 months
1%
94%
kind (products)
cash
property
other
Expected ways to
liquidate
compensation dept
3%
67%
5%
25%
% of enterprises
Labor productivity in IV quarter 2009
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
up
same
down
NA
cattle-breeding
plant-growing
Leading indicator for agriculture
150
40
140
30
130
20
120
10
110
0
100
-10
Leading synthetic
90
-20
Agricultural grows y-oy (right scale)
80
-30
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Kinds of publications
Publications for
analysts
Short analytical
report
Report for chiefs
Press-release in mass
media & Internet
Work-shops,
conferences
BTS users
Economists, analysts,
researchers
Respondents
of BTS
Top-managers
in government
Managers in
business
Politicians
Mass
media
Type of publications & categories of BTS users
Public
Thank you for the attention!
Thank you for the attention!