Flash Indicator for the
Business Sentiment
Third International Seminar on Early Warning and
Business Cycle Indicators
Moscow 17-19 November 2010
Kaisa Ben Daher
National Accounts
Statistics Sweden
Flash Indicator for the
Business Sentiment
• Early indicator of the business cycle of
large enterprises
• Based on phone interviews
• Corporate management people
• 2 times every year
• Published within the same month as
the interviews are made
The survey design
• 320 enterprises are interviewed
• 18 different branches/industries
• Cut-of sample - largest enterprises
measured by number of employees
included
• Response rate about 92 % measured as percentage of the
number of firms in the sample
Questions asked
1. How do you assess the current business
sentiment?
Very satisfying/Satisfying/Poor
2. What are your expectations for the next
6 months?
Improved/Unchanged/Deteriorated
3. Where in the business cycle do you
place your company?
On the way up/On the top/On the way
down/On the bottom
Results presented
• As a percentages for each alternative
reply
• Net results for business sentiment and
future expectations – the difference
between the share that has given a
positiv answer and the share that has
given a negativ answer
Business sentiment October 2010
percent and net figures
Industry
Very satisfying Satisfying Poor Net figures
Food products industry
28
66
6
22
Wood, pulp & paper
46
34
21
25
Publishing & printing
21
79
0
21
Chemical & Medicine
68
32
0
68
Engineering
19
81
0
19
Basic metalls
21
76
4
17
Manufacturing n.e.i.
32
56
12
20
Electricity, gas & water
35
59
6
29
Construction
40
47
14
26
Wholesale
65
35
0
65
Retail trade
34
66
0
34
Hotels & restaurants
77
23
0
77
Transport & communcation
24
76
0
24
Financial intermediation
85
15
0
85
Business activities etc.
73
23
4
69
Education
73
27
0
73
Health & social work
56
44
0
56
Services n.e.i.
60
40
0
60
Business sentiment time series
net figures
Industry
F 02 S 03 F 03 S 04 F 04 S 05 F 05 S 06 F 06 S 07 F 07 S 08 F 08 S 09 F 09 S 10 F 10
Food
0
0 14 -12 -38 -61 -9 -13 13 39
1
3 -2 -11 -1
8 22
Wood, pulp & paper
0 -12 -47 -24 -2 11 45 36 54 70 34 16 -32 -73 -33
0 25
Publishing & printing
-41 -50 -47
-7 -10
8
2 29 86 72 69 51 -17 -57 -68 -22 21
Chemical & Medicine
-7
0 -7
-6 27 13 71 22 20 41 38 27
4 24 -14 12 69
Engineering
-43
0 -17
0 85 79 52 46 71 50 58 29 -29 -53 -33
0 19
Basic metalls
-7
0 -24 28 57 69 30 69 90 84 62 47 -4 -96 -91
-7 17
Manufacturing n.e.i.
-21 -33 -17
-6 -1
1 25 66 77 76 77 42 -44 -69 -59 -35 20
Electricity, gas & water
36 67 29 21 46 75 75 80 78 66 87 67 32 -6 -8
7 29
Construction
13 -53 -35 -35 56 51 68 91 98 99 98 94 62 -43 -41
-8 26
Wholesale & retail trade
21 13 -6
Wholesale
-61
3 22 45 28 79 73 62 55
1 -57 -27
-5 65
Retail trade
20
4
3 35 41 85 92 75 56 22 -34 11 40 34
Hotels & restaurants
-24 -79 -47 -13 -51 10 37 79 51 94 78 69 41 -21 -12
0 77
Transport & communcation -27 -47 -20
0 31 27 52 32 74 76 87 55 15
4 -15
1 24
Financial intermediation
-39 -14 -6 22 16 40 68 100 90 94 69 43 -40 -24 -2 10 85
Business activities etc.
-36 -47 -29 -11 -22 17 28 56 64 81 89 45 10 -50 -36
1 69
Education
7 38 12 50 71 84 71 91 86 91 85 57 71 45 55 51 73
Health & social work
14
0 -25 17 58 63 50 53 52 56 40 67 42 17 69 54 56
Services n.e.i.
13 13 -6 13 -3 23 31 45 56 77 66 76
4
4 12 30 60
Position in the business cycle
October 2010
percentage
Industry
On the way up On the top On the way down In the bottom
Food products industry
75
8
0
17
Wood, pulp & paper
80
16
0
5
Publishing & printing
91
5
0
4
Chemical & Medicine
83
17
0
0
Engineering
98
2
0
0
Basic metalls
88
12
0
0
Manufacturing n.e.i.
100
0
0
0
Electricity, gas & water
83
17
0
0
Construction
75
15
0
10
Wholesale
71
29
0
0
Retail trade
70
14
17
0
Hotels & restaurants
81
7
0
13
Transport & communcation
100
0
0
0
Financial intermediation
51
49
0
0
Business activities etc.
96
0
0
4
Education
81
7
12
0
Health & social work
94
0
0
6
Services n.e.i.
91
9
0
0
Business sentiment forecast
percentage and net figures
Industry
Improved Unchanged Deteriorated Net figures
Food products industry
11
73
16
-5
Wood, pulp & paper
42
37
20
22
Publishing & printing
59
41
0
59
Chemical & Medicine
60
40
0
60
Engineering
33
67
0
33
Basic metalls
70
30
0
70
Manufacturing n.e.i.
40
60
0
40
Electricity, gas & water
21
79
0
21
Construction
56
41
3
54
Wholesale
44
56
0
44
Retail trade
20
64
16
3
Hotels & restaurants
57
36
7
50
Transport & communcation
16
84
0
16
Financial intermediation
28
50
22
6
Business activities etc.
33
67
0
33
Education
28
67
5
23
Health & social work
10
90
0
10
Services n.e.i.
29
71
0
29