Third International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators

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Third International Seminar on Early Warning and Business
Cycle Indicators
Moscow, 17-19 November 2010
Session 5 – Data Template and analytical indicators
Discussion of Papers from India, Brazil and South Korea:
Country experiences developing national data hubs
Discussant: Eduardo Pereira Nunes
Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE
Moscow, 18 November 2010
Data Template and analytical indicators
Review the country papers
Proposal of a Data Template it is very important for all countries having the same kind
of comparable data, at the same time.
Developing a Data Template of Core Set of Short Term Statistics is crucial to
countries produce same statistics and, more, to release related real, financial, fiscal
and external macroeconomic data, at national and international level.
Data Template is also useful for macroeconomic surveillance.
Combination of Data Template with Business Cycle Tracer (BCT) could be a good
option to integrate macroeconomic template with a tool of monitoring key
indicators:
- to give rapid alert on turning point of cycle (BCT) by using (official and no
official) data `on time´, and:
- to analyze possible macroeconomic unbalance (Template) related to this turning
point, through updated statistics.
From a National Statistical Office point of view, these tool and framework are very
complementary.
Data Template and analytical indicators
Data Template can be useful to explore more and better the System of Real
and Financial Macroeconomic Accounts produced by SNA 2008, but not
fully explored by users.
Perhaps, users do not use all the SN Accounts and its data because we do not
have yet an understandable and integrated system of information for every
country.
Gap of information and good communication and good coordination.
Some countries have a very developed National Statistical System and many
other have only partial information.
At international level, this reality does not help users, neither to use
comparable data, nor to understand some crisis, like the last Financial and
Economic Crisis.
Today, the G 20, IMF, ECB and other international organizations are paying
more attention for this issue.
Country experiences on National Data Hubs
India and Brazil stressed importance of:
1. Coordination of National Statistical System to avoid duplicated efforts and
to produce all data needed;
2. Developing an International Data Hub to collect right data from each
country and to facilitate dissemination of comparable national short term
data;
2. Following experience of SDDS for 64 countries on real sector data, because
this IMF experience of coordination was successful.
Country experiences on National Data Hubs
Korean Statistical Office has already a real experience of coordination of
national production of statistics, even by creating a specific law (Statistics
Act) and a Portal to National Statistics, putting the key statistics in an
integrated database.
The KOSTAT integrates statistics and links from databases of other agencies
and provides an Internet Portal with several services, such as
personalized services to users and database sharing with other agencies.
According to Statistics Act, statistical organizations should provide data for
the construction, coordination, and integration of statistical databases.
The Korean way of coordinating statistical databases is a good response to the
issues put by India and Brazil.
Country experiences on National Data Hubs - India
Developing data hubs for High Frequency Indicators
N. Eagambaram, Central Statistical Office, India
Central Statistics Office (CSO) is the coordinator of Indian Statistical System.
CSO prescribes national standards, interacts with international agencies and
disseminates core statistics at the national level.
Central Statistics Office work program is defined by the National Statistical
Commission, which is the highest national level agency and comprises the
systems in the Union Ministries, including CSO and the State and Union
Territory Governments.
He presents a diagram on the National Statistical System and the flow of data
exchange among different government agencies.
Indian statistical system and the data flow among the agencies
National Statistical
Commission
International
Agencies
Public
Ministry of Statistics &
Programme Implementation
NSSO
CC
CSO
Other
Ministries
NSSO: National Sample Survey
Organisation
CSO : Central Statistics Office
CC : Computer Centre
State Statistical
Bureaus
Country experiences on National Data Hubs - India
Data on real, fiscal, financial and external sectors and on population are on the
websites of the respective ministries.
As India is member of SDDS, some indicators are already in the list of the
SDDS.
Ministry of Finance hosts all these data and is responsible for the link with the
IMF.
Mr.Eagambaram proposes to follow SDDS’s standardization and periodicity.
However, for him, the real sector data may be provided by the National
Statistical Institutes.
Brazilian paper stresses that, in many Latin American (and also African)
countries, National Statistical Offices produce only basic statistics and
Central Banks produce National Accounts, even for real sector.
Country experiences on National Data Hubs - India
National Data Hub
National Data Hub has to be developed in accordance with country reality to
avoid either duplication of efforts, or institutional conflicts.
International Data Hub
At international level, for Mr. Eagambaram, UNSD could build a Database
Server (like UNDATA) and provide safe web connectivity to the NSO to
update information online on Template of High Frequency Indicators.
These data could be updated by the UNSD database, by using specific
software.
This process would allow countries to deliver the same data to the national
users and UNSD.
To improve comparability among countries, this system of analytical
indicators should also keep the metadata and the compilation methodology.
Country experiences on National Data Hubs - Brazil
For Brazilian paper one issue is:
how to provide countries with a simple way of production these data, to
avoid resistance or production of wrong information.
For this reason, the paper of India suggests that UNSD could develop a
Database Server and provide safe web connectivity to the NSI.
International Data Template of HFI
Should be provided by all countries.
Up to date, IMF SDDS is only for 64 countries.
Some other countries have another system (GDDS).
Brazilian paper agrees with Indian proposal to follow SDDS’s standardization
and periodicity.
Brazilian authors suggest creation of an "International Data Hub”. The
SDDS experience is a good example of data hub.
Implementation of the SDSS was conducted with IMF technical support
missions. IMF´s experts worked together with local staffs to develop basic
framework.
Country experiences on National Data Hubs – South Korea
South Korean statistical system was built to integrate the statistical database.
The South Korean statistical system is a decentralized system in which the
KOSTAT is the central body.
In South Korea, more than 840 official statistics are produced by about 370
producers.
Before this integration, each organization managed statistical data in its own
way, and it was very difficult to share data, due to a lack of standardization
in terms of database structure, management and application.
Internet Portal to National Statistics
To solve this problem the KOSTAT hosts a Internet Portal to National
Statistics, incorporating the key statistics into an integrated database.
The updated Korean "Statistics Act" incorporated an article on "Building the
statistical database".
Country experiences on National Data Hubs – South Korea
National Data Hub
According to the Statistics Act, statistical organizations should provide data for
the construction, coordination, and integration of statistical databases.
KOSTAT developed a standard for the links, a standardized structure for the
integrated database, and a standard for the metadata.
Like India, in South Korea there is a Committee to discuss rules, data service
policy and method to disseminate integrated Database System. This
Committee promotes the cooperation among institutions.
To reduce lack of cooperation among organizations and to promote better
coordination on national, KOSTAT promoted capacity building through
Workshops to improve understanding on this project.
Conclusion on development of national data hubs
The three papers approach the "development of national data hubs" from
different angles, but their aproaches are complementary.
India presents the SDDS as an experience of an existing data hub; suggests
that the information from the SDDS be extended by other provided by
National Statistical Institutes in an international data hub, to be
implemented by the UNSD.
Brazil also makes reference to the SDDS as a good implementation
experience, as well as a national data hub which already exists.
Korea presents its very good experience in building an integrated database.
Using of existing systems, as national data hubs, seems to be the most
rational recommendation, as the case of the SDDS shows.
But the question is still open on the indicators that are not in the SDDS and
are produced by statistical institutes and other government agencies.
Conclusion on development of national data hubs
Experiences of South Korea, IMF and European Union on building data
hubs show that it is not an easy task to centralize, standardize,
harmonize, and make national and international data comparable
and available for the users in a regular way.
We need strong coordination.
With the support and the experience from both the UNSD and the
Eurostat, for example, the NSO would congregate the other
domestic producers of statistics and define which institution would
host information, how data would be received, and the frequency
and standardization of metadata.
Even a simple framework for centralizing data requires hard work in
terms of coordination and institutional arrangements.
Without support and guidance, in a step by step basis, we risk of doing
a large amount of work without achieving the expected result,
mainly in decentralized statistical systems.
Final remarks on development of national data hubs
Current initiatives in the scope of geospatial information dissemination at
local, national, regional and global levels have been facing a similar
problem.
Issue: how to disseminate and share information produced by a large number
of institutions, in a coordinated way.
Response: Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI), which is seen as a framework,
which allows the use of geospatial information for many applications in an
efficient and flexible way.
A SDI can be defined as a set of policies, laws, rules, standards, agreements,
plans, programs, projects, human, technological and financial resources,
appropriately integrated, to facilitate the production, access and use of
geospatial data.
Based on the web technology, data can be shared without the necessity of
being physically stored on a central location/institution.
Final remarks on development of national data hubs
This frame allows users to explore, find and use information released
throughout data, metadata and services.
So, the Data Hubs could be another kind of this Portal, like developed by
South Korean.
Brazil has a similar experience: at the national level, the National Spatial Data
Infrastructure of Brazil (INDE – www.inde.gov.br).
At the regional level, the initiatives carried by CP-IDEA (Permanent
Committee for Geospatial Data Infrastructure of the Americas http://www.cp-idea.org/).
INSPIRE (Infrastructure for Spatial Information in the European Community http://www.inspire-geoportal.eu/), PCGIAP (Permanent Committee on GIS
Infrastructure for Asia & the Pacific - http://www.pcgiap.org/);
And, at the global level, the United Nations Initiative on Global Geospatial
Information Management (GGIM - unstats.un.org/unsd/ggim/index.html).
Finally, each National Data Hub could have a simple structure containing
dynamic databases to facilitate the construction of an updated
Macroeconomic Template Data.
Thank you!
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