International Seminar of Early Warning
and Business Cycle Indicators
Moscow, 17-19 November 2010
Construction of Cyclical
Indicators for Ukraine on
the BTS Basis
Maryna Pugachova
Scientific & Technical Complex for Statistical
Research
of State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
BTS in Ukraine
Since 1997:






industry;
construction;
retail trade;
transport;
agriculture;
investment survey.
Since 2010 - non-financial services sector
Organizers:
Scientific & Technical Complex for
Statistical Research;
 State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
(SSCU).

Our functions are:
adopting of methodology;
 designing of the questionnaires;
 treatment of data (scanning & completion
data base);
 preparing different analytical reviews
(news releases for Internet site, reports for
respondents, bulletins for government).

SSCU functions are:
forming the samples in regions in
accordance with our methodological
recommendations;
 distribution of questionnaires blanks;
 collecting of completed questionnaires;
 checking of the codes in questionnaires.

Synthetic indicators for:





industry,
construction,
retail trade,
transport,
agriculture.
Global synthetic indicator for business
climate
Picture 1. Global indicator for business climate & GDP in comparable prices
115
15
10
110
5
105
0
% 100
-5 %
-10
95
-15
90
Global Synt (l. s.)
y-o-y GDP growth (r. s.)
-20
85
-25
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Picture 2. Global indicator for business climate & GDP in constant prices
115
15
10
110
5
105
0
% 100
-5 %
-10
95
-15
Global synthetic indicator (l. s.)
90
y-o-y GDP growth (r. s.)
-20
85
-25
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
The set of composite indicators by economic sector
Branches of economy
(Economic sectors)
INDUSTRY
Indicators from BTS
For Leading synthetic
indicator
Future
Situation
For Coincident
synthetic indicator
Business Current Business
Situation
Future Production
Past Production
Total Order Books
Total Order Books
Foreign Order Books
Foreign Order Books
– Stocks
– Stocks
Future Orders Books
Future Employment
– Capacity
The set of composite indicators by economic sector
Branches of economy
(Economic
sectors)
CONSTRUCTION
Indicators from BTS
For Leading synthetic
indicator
For Coincident
synthetic indicator
Future Activity
Past Activity
Order Tendency
Cost Tendency
Future Cost Tendency
Order Tendency
– Future Debts
Work Plan
Future Business Situation
Cost Level
Future Employment
– Debts on Hand
Current
Situation
Business
The set of composite indicators by economic sector
Branches of
economy
RETAIL TRADE
Indicators from BTS
For Leading synthetic
indicator
For Coincident
synthetic indicator
Future Local Order Book
Future Employment
Future Foreign Order Book
Financial Results
Future Financial Results
TRANSPORT
Work plan
Work done
Present demand
Present demand
Future demand
Future Employment
Future Business Situation
– Capacity
Future Competition
Current
Situation
Business
The set of composite indicators by economic sector
Branches of economy
(Economic
sectors)
AGRICULTURE
Indicators from BTS
For Leading synthetic
indicator
Future Production-Animal
For Coincident
synthetic indicator
Past Production-Animal
Total Order Books-Animal Total Order
Animal
Total Order Books-Plant
Books-
Total Order Books-Plant
Forecast Order
Animal
Books Current
Business
Situation, level
Forecast
Plant
Books Current
Business
Situation, tendency
Order
Future Business Situation
Picture 3. Leading indicator for industry
120
20
10
110
0
100
-10
90
-20
Leading synthetic
Industrial grows y-o-y (right scale)
80
-30
70
-40
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Picture 4. Coincident indicator for industry
125
20
120
10
115
110
0
105
-10
100
95
-20
Coincident synthetic indicator
90
-30
Industrial grows y-o-y (right scale)
85
80
-40
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Picture 5. Leading indicator for construction
140
45
35
130
25
120
15
5
110
-5
100
-15
90
-25
80
Leading synthetic
indicator for
consntruction
-45
70
Construction growth
y-o-y (r.s.)
-35
-55
60
-65
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Picture 6. Leading indicator for agriculture
150
40
140
30
130
20
120
10
110
0
100
-10
Leading synthetic
90
-20
Agricultural grows y-oy (right scale)
80
-30
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Picture 7. Leading Global indicator for business climate
115
15
10
110
5
105
0
100
-5
95
-10
90
-15
Leading global synthetic indicator (l. s.)
y-o-y GDP growth (r. s.)
85
-20
80
-25
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Ifo segmentation method
Segment a (demand weakness and supply-side bottlenecks). Existence
of all the main factors that constitute demand or supply-side
bottlenecks: “low demand”, “shortage of materials”, “high taxes”,
“shortage of equipment”, “out-dated equipment”, “shortage of
working capital”, “lack of qualified personnel”.
Segment b.1 (pronounced supply-side bottlenecks). Existence of all the
main factors from segment а, except for “demand weakness”, and
aggravation of future business situation.
Segment b.2 (temporary supply-side bottlenecks). Existence of all the
main factors from segment а, except for “demand weakness”, and
unchanged future business situation.
Segment c (without cyclic disturbances). No supply-side bottlenecks,
“good” and “satisfactory” assessments of the financial and economic
condition.
Segment d.1 (pronounced demand weakness). The only bottleneck is
“demand weakness”, added by the expected aggravation of the
business situation.
Segment d.2 (temporary demand weakness). The only bottleneck is
“demand weakness”, added by the expected unchanged (the same
as in the past quarter) business situation.
Picture 8. Segmentation of industrial enterprises at industry
level in accordance with cyclic categories
100%
a
80%
b.1
60%
b.2
c
40%
d.2
20%
d.1
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0%
Picture 9. Segmentation of industrial enterprises
manufacturing of investment goods
100%
a
80%
b.1
b.2
60%
c
40%
d.2
20%
d.1
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0%
Thank you for the
attention!