Bali Road Map, Climate Change and
Official Statistics
Maria Netto
United Nations Development Programme
25 June 2008
What needs to be accounted for/reported? Convention
All Parties:
• GHG inventories – sectors as defined in IPCC 1996 guidelines
(information from 2006 guidelines is also recommended) – provide
for a set of sectors
• Vulnerability assessments & Adaptation – no single methodology
– a set of sectors in IPCC
Developed countries (Annex I Parties):
• Annual GHG reports
• Regular reporting includes also information on policies and
measures (PAMs)
Developing countries (non Annex I Parties):
• Every 3,4 years. Depend on availability of data. No “obligation” to
report on PAMs. LDCs: National Adaptation Plans of Action.
1 1
What needs to be accounted for/reported? Kyoto Protocol
Annex I Parties:
• More detailed accounting of GHG emissions and PAMs – need to
link them up to “assigned amounts” to account for QELROs
(“targets”) and participate in emissions trading.
• National institutional framework in place: national systems
• Emissions trading accounting: national registries
Non-Annex I Parties:
• No additional obligations
• Under Clean Development Mechanisms however: importance of
information availability of data for setting baselines and monitoring
emission reductions.
• Some tracking of national accounts in CDM registry also possible
2 2
Bali Road Map - What is new?
• Recognition that actions to address climate change are intimately
linked to economic growth and sustainable development goals
and needs.
• Breakthrough in international climate change policy, highlighting a
shared understanding for the necessity of common efforts, both by
developed and developing countries and setting a deadline by
2009.
• The road map for negotiations laid down four main building blocks:
mitigation, adaptation, technology and financing, and established
a timetable under the Kyoto Protocol for emission reduction
targets for industrialized countries by 2009.
3 3
Bali Road Map - Challenges
• Increasing understand that to promote increased resilience to
climate change impacts and a lower-GHG emission economy fall
across a variety of sectors, such as energy, agriculture, health,
water resources, infrastructure, etc
• In order to effectively participate and develop positions in such a
challenging and complex negotiation process, developing
countries -- in particular those with medium- and small-size
economies -- will be required to involve and increasingly coordinate various government decision makers across key
economic sectors at the national level as well as other relevant
stakeholders.
• Bali Road Map Deadline of 2009 is challenging – options need to
be laid down and understood.
4 4
Bali Road Map negotiations - Kyoto Protocol
• Discussions so far (2007) focused on identifying criteria for
targets for Annex I Parties.
• Agreement that for concentration stabilization levels of 450 ppm
CO2-eq, GHG emissions from developed countries would need
to be reduced for about 25 to 40 percent by 2020 (IPCC).
• Discussions in 2008 will also focus on means to achieve targets:
mechanisms, national policies, role of LULUCF, etc.
• Contentious issues include:
• Role of LULUCF (what activities should be accounted both for the
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base year as for the emission reductions)
Whether to consider or not obligations relating to emissions by
bunker fuels
Timing for agreeing on final criteria and starting discussions on
exact targets by developed countries
Extent of use of sectoral targets
Extent of use of mechanisms and their possible expansion
5 5
Bali Road Map negotiations - Convention
Mitigation:
• Developed countries – “comparability” of commitments (with
KP)
• Developing countries – Measurable, reportable and verifiable
mitigation action and means to support action (finance and
technology)
Adaptation:
• Linkage to other areas: development, disaster risk prevention,
risk management
• Finance: access, scale up to address gaps ensure
predictability of funds
6 6
Bali Road Map negotiations - Convention
Finance:
• Evolved to a much broader range of issues relating to relationship
between the costs / needs to address climate change and economic
growth an development.
• Allocation of ODA and Convention Funds under the financial
mechanism
• Possible role of, and what are the possible incentives to, promote
national and international policies and regulations
• Innovative mechanisms to leverage additional funding and their
governance
• Investments and finance to address climate change as linked to
overall investment and finance for development.
7 7
Bali Road Map negotiations - Convention
Technology:
• Strong linkage between technology and mitigation actions –
recognition of need adequate access to technology and capacity for
technology development for achieving emission reductions
• Dimensions: technology cooperation ; transfer; support to
endogenous development; R&D
• New Mechanisms: Regional, thematic, PPP approaches
• IPRs
8 8
Bali Road Map negotiations - Challenges on reporting
• Need for enhanced accounting for both developed and
developing countries – issue of availability and compatibility of
data is now new.
• Linkage between economic data and GHG inventories,
mitigation actions, vulnerability assessments and adaptation
data – need to develop options to cope with climate change,
plan in longer term and assess costs and needs.
• Need to consider climate change across economic sectors –
involve various decision makers.
• Need not to duplicate efforts at national level – between existing
accounting for various sectors and new needs for climate
change.
9 9
Activity Data - Number of possible barriers to data collection
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Lack of data for a certain year or complete lack of data for any years
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Inconsistencies time series, e.g. changes in definition, survey methods
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Data classification system incompatible with IPCC format (e.g. LUCF)
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Access to activity data may be restricted (e.g. confidentiality issues) or
very expensive
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Difficulties in identifying institutions responsible for data collection
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More than one institution retaining data for a given source category
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Contradictory data from different sources of information
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Legal issues or fees associated with obtaining data
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Avoid double counting
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Activity Data - Addressing issues
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Identify AD sources (national/international)
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Identify potential barriers for data compilation and potential
solutions
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Identify potential gaps and approaches to fill them
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If data do not exist, assess feasibility to generate them
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Discuss with experts from other countries on alternative
solutions
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Involve institutions responsible for data collection to identify
options for data gaps filling
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As a last resource, it is possible to rely on international AD
sources for some GHG categories of CO2, CH4, and N2O
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GHG data and planning mitigation – Addressing data issues
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Compiling a national GHG inventory requires a fairly lengthy
and interconnected series of tasks.
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GHG inventory requires fundamental decisions about data and
methods, network of contacts, institutional arrangements, and
a system for data management, QA, QC, documentation and
archiving.
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Inventory process should thus be planned, operated and
managed to ensure quality, efficiency and sustainability
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This is especially important as countries produce their second
and subsequent inventories and intend to provide inputs to
relevant policy decisions.
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Mitigation/GHG sectors
Sectors
Sources of emissions, sub-sectors, means,
Energy supply
Natural gas; Renewables; Hydropower; Nuclear; Crude
Oil, Coal
Industry
Pulp and paper; Cement; lime, and other non-metallic
minerals; Nonferrous metal smelting and iron and steel
smelting; Metal and non-metal mining; Chemical
products; Other manufacturing
Transportation
Passenger and freight movements by road vehicles;
railways; aircraft; and both inland and maritime vessels
Buildings
Residential floor space and all commercial or service
activities, fuel use and emissions for space and water
heating
Waste
Landfills, wastewater
Agriculture
Agricultural lands, comprising arable land, permanent
crops and pasture
Forestry
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Economic sectors and mitigation sectors
Mitigation sectors
Economic sectors
Agriculture
Forestry
Energy supply
Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
Industry
Transportation
Buildings
Waste?
Mining and quarrying
Electricity, gas and water supply
Manufacturing
Transport, storage and communications
Financial intermediation real estate, renting and
business activities
Construction
Wholesale retail trade, repair of motor vehicles,
motorcycles, etc., hotels and restaurants
Public administration and defence, compulsory
social security
Education, health and social work, other
community, social and personal services
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Matching mitigation and economic sectors / data
In order to assess investment and financial flows for energy supply
one needs to link to economic sector information
Components of energy supply are divided between two economic
sectors. Specifically:
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Oil, gas and coal production and petroleum refining are part of
the mining and quarrying sector, together with other mining
activities;
•
Electricity generation, T&D and gas distribution are part of
electricity, gas distribution and water supply sector.
1515
Adaptation sectors
The same challenges apply to Adaptation sectors:
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Agriculture,
Forestry
Water supply
Human health
Natural ecosystems (terrestrial and marine)
Coastal zones
Infrastructure
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Importance to identify key players
Sources
Economic sectors
Households
Government
Financial corporations
Non-financial
corporations
Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas and water supply
Transport, storage and communications
Financial intermediation real estate, renting and
business activities
Construction
Wholesale retail trade, repair of motor vehicles,
motorcycles, etc., hotels and restaurants
Public administration and defence, compulsory social
security
Education, health and social work, other community,
social and personal services
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Source
Total/Sector
Households
Total investment
A: GFCF data
Corporations
Total investment
B: GFCF data
Domestic funds
C: Calculated (B – D – G)
FDI
D: UNCTAD data
Adjusted domestic funds
E: Calculated (B – F – G)
Adjusted FDI
F: UNCTAD data
Foreign debt
G: BIS data
Total investment
H: GFCF data
Domestic funds
I: Calculated (H – J – K)
Foreign debt
J: BIS data
ODA
K: OECD data
Total investment
A+B+H
Domestic funds
A+C+I
FDI
D
Adjusted domestic
A+E+I
Adjusted FDI
F
Foreign debt
F+J
ODA
K
Government
Total
Notes
Assumed to be entirely domestic
Assumed to be all non-financial
corporations
Adjusted for mergers and acquisitions; not
available by sector
Assumed to be all government
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Matching data to mitigation priorities / CDM potential
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About 100 methodologies available
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Each methodology provides for guidance on eligibility
activities
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Baseline in particular needs many times data at
regional/national level – in some cases there is strong reliance
on historical data (e.g. forests)
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Screening methodologies against mitigation priorities allow to
select key sectors where CDM could have potential in the
country (e.g. carbon intense products) and for which data
could be made available to facilitate project development
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Some types of projects/methodologies rely a lot on availability
of national data – e.g. energy efficiency, electricity to the grid,
etc..
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Difficult access to data and non-availability of data are
important barriers to implement CDM
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CDM examples on data - Bus Rapid Transit Projects
Element
Core data for determining baseline
emissions
•Alternative A: based on relative data
(fuel consumption and distance driven
per vehicle category and fuel type)
•Alternative B: sectoral fuel consumption
•Technology improvement factor
•Passengers per transport mode using
new transport system after project start
(relative distribution and absolute
numbers)
Monitoring Methodology
•Alternative A: fuel consumption based
on measurement of a representative
sample, international literature, IPCC
values related to local circumstances
and distance driven based on
official statistics
•Alternative B: Based on representative
surveys
•Default value based on international
literature
•Monitored annually by project based
on surveys plus
•registration of total passengers
transported by the system
2020
CDM examples on data - Tool to calculate the emission factor for an
electricity system
Element
Source of data recommended
Amount of fossil fuel type consumed by
power plant / unit
Utility or government records or official
publications
CO2 emission factor of fossil fuel type i
in year y
Option 1: Values provided by the fuel
supplier of the power plants in invoices
(If data is collected from power plant
operators (e.g. utilities) )
Option 2: Regional or national average
default values (If values are reliable and
documented in regional or national
energy statistics / energy balances)
Option 3: IPCC default values at the
lower limit of the uncertainty at a 95%
confidence interval as provided in table
1.4 of Chapter1 of Vol. 2 (Energy) of the
2006 IPCC Guidelines on National GHG
Inventories
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Measurable, reportable and verifiable
Mitigation actions by developing countries
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Some experience with national communications and CDM
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Challenges of new proposed approaches – e.g. sectoral, SD
PAMs
Support to implementation actions:
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Finance
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Technology transfer and support
Annex I Parties:
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Experience with national communications, PAMs and
emissions trading
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Sectoral approaches are also a challenge
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Conclusions – Existing Convention and KP requirements
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Data needs and barriers are not a new issue
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Need for national institutional framework
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Consider flexible ways to support capacity of countries (rather
than create more reporting burdens)
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Experience with GHG inventories, national communication
and CDM provide useful basis – methodologies and
categories are available
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Conclusions – New requirements
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Role of data for longer term planning (history data and
continuous collection and monitoring)
Possible new sectors or activities (LULUCF, Bunkers, etc.)
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Need for economic assessment of mitigation options
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Linkages amongst mitigation sectors and economic sectors
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Measurable, reportable and verifiable information – on
mitigation action
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Conclusions – Climate Change and official statistics
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Possible methodological linkages between IPCC, CDM, other
carbon accounting standards (e.g. WRI/WBCSD) and official
Statistics such as SEEA)
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Importance of SEEA in assisting improved monitoring and
measuring at national level and in supporting modelling/long
term planning
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Need to enhance capacity of developing countries to consider
climate change across sectors and enhance ongoing
capabilities to collect and maintain data
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Need to consider further how to formulate statistical
information that provide for economic / finance accounting of
mitigation / adaptation options
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