STATISTICS 200 SECTIONS 7-9: (CLASS 2) SPRING SEMESTER 2016 ELEMENTARY STATISTICS Welcome Stat 200 Students: I teach because I believe that everyone has the capacity to learn. It has been a privilege to be able to teach Stat 200 for the past 27.5 years at Penn State. This is one of my most challenging and daunting undertakings in life. Yet my passion remains as fervent as it was on the first day that I walked into a classroom. I have devoted so much time and energy to this course because it gives me the best opportunity to impact students who are mostly from nontechnical majors and will only take one statistics course. Statistics permeates everyday life. Learning is about the construction of knowledge. The key for success is to find the optimal way to construct knowledge so that deep and life-long learning can take place. I look forward to facilitating your learning of statistics. Best wishes. Pat Buchanan, Senior Instructor of Statistics INSTRUCTOR: Name & Office Location: Patricia (Pat) Buchanan at 309 Thomas Office Hours: Thurs 2:30 – 4:30 PM (by appointment – sign-up sheet brought to class) Phone: (814)-865-6266 Email: must send under the Communicate tab in Angel – will only read & respond to emails that are received inside Angel where I am addressed by name, have a correct subject heading, and class identification. Typically do red emails after 8:30 PM. REQUIRED MATERIALS: Textbook: Mind on Statistics, 5th Edition, by Jessica Utts & Robert Heckard options include: 3-hole punch loose leaf (LL), hard cover, and electronic version. No JMP code needed. Only the electronic version needs the Aplia code (instructor provides code). Instructor will only work from the 5th edition. No International Version. Student solution manual is not required. can also buy textbook directly from the publisher by using this website. http://www.cengagebrain.com/course/site.html?id=1-1MGWKYS a few copies are available in the Physical and Mathematical Sciences (PAMS) & Pattee Library Iclicker (Penn State only supports iclicker or iclicker+) iclicker must be correctly registered with good batteries by Mon Jan 25. The course clicker policy is posted on Angel. Clickers will be used to enhance learning and provide feedback. Similar questions could appear on exams. Calculator: won’t need with exams or any of the Pretests and the Posttest (so no course requirement) TABLE 1: COURSE STRUCTURE (CLASS 2): Section Lecture (Wed & Thurs) Computer Labs (Fri & Mon) Section 7 101 Thomas 10:10 AM 214 Boucke: 8:00 AM Section 8 101 Thomas 10:10 AM 111 Boucke: 10:10 AM Section 9 101 Thomas 10:10 AM 214 Boucke: 11:15 AM Lecture (Wed & Thurs) PowerPoint slides: posted by 7:30 PM on the previous day - bring copy to lecture On-line Lecture Quizzes (LQ’s): posted to take after lecture prior to lab (does not count for a grade) - strongly encouraged to take before lab if unclear on some topics covered in class. Computer Lab Meeting (Mon & Fri): must complete at the scheduled time and in the lab room Lab Activity handout posted by 3:30 PM on previous day - bring copy to lab – don’t wait to print it at lab - encouraged to work on it in advance if time is an issue - bring lecture notes. complete “lab activities” either individually or in small groups – submit on-line Lab Activity Quiz (LAQ) before leaving class – includes both concept application and data analysis often using the statistical software package: Minitab – responsible for all information covered on the lab activity. COURSE WEB SITE (ANGEL): https://cms.psu.edu: everything relevant to the course will be posted, including course emails Weekly Roadmap: includes readings and assigned homework problems. Note: A course calendar is found at the end of this syllabus handout. 1 COURSE OVERVIEW & GOALS: Overview: In today’s world, we find “big data” driving decisions made in every aspect of life. Statistics is a discipline dedicated to unraveling the mystery of making such decisions when faced with uncertainty. More precisely, statistics is the art and science of using sample data to make generalizations about populations. The objective of this course is to explore and apply basic statistical concepts and procedures that are used when analyzing data. What you should discover is that statistics is not just another math course. While you will be exposed to new terminology and concepts, much of the time you will use statistical software to solve problems that require quantitative solutions. Math is said to be the language for communication with both science and much of the social sciences. Statistics provides the structure for this communication. You will not be inundated with repetitive calculations but instead will explore data with a context. Basic algebra is the only prerequisite. The second part of the course is more technical. Success in this course requires an ability to apply reasoning skills over memorization. Additionally, you will need to integrate new material with previously-learned material throughout the semester. You are strongly encouraged to read reputable news sources where you can see how statistics can be applied to every-day life. Two Goals: 1. To understand the scientific method from a statistical perspective be able to identify questions, collect evidence, discover and apply tools needed to interpret the data, and communicate results. While you may never conduct a scientific study, it is still possible that you may encounter data or statistical results over the course of a career. 2. To become good “statistical” citizens be able to: examine the information that you are inundated with, think critically about it, and then use it to make good decisions. Science plays a key role in solutions for many of today’s problems. Note: A copy of the twenty-three learning objectives are posted on Angel OTHER PEOPLE WHO ARE A PART OF OUR LEARNING COMMUNITY Teaching Assistants (TA’s): oversee the computer lab meetings – primarily serve as facilitators – don’t just give answers work with a team of other graduate students who will hold shared office hours (SOH) respond to emails received inside Angel Learning Assistants (LA’s): undergraduate students who are statistics majors (or in a closely related major) will also help in the computer lab meetings (not available outside the computer lab meetings) HELP OPTIONS: With large enrollment classes, students need to consider all possible help options. Two free options include: Shared Office Hours (SOH) Location: 220D Boucke & Dates: (Tues Jan 19 – Thurs Apr 28) Conducted by a pool of graduate students from the statistics department Hours are: (1-4 pm & 6-9 pm on Mon thru Wed) & (1-3 pm & 6-9 pm on Thurs) Guided Study Groups (Through Penn State Learning) – start week of Jan 24 Guided Study Groups (GSG) is a collaborative learning program designed to support students, who are enrolled in challenging larger lecture courses GSG is a study group led by a trained student leader who is specific for this course More info at https://pennstatelearning.psu.edu/study-groups This course is a Lion Tutors/Nittany Note Free Zone. The instructor/ TA’s are not affiliated with and do not provide any solutions for materials developed by external money-making sources such as Lion Tutors/ Nittany Notes. Such services only train you take an exam. These people are not statisticians. Consequently, during the second-half of the semester, when the course material builds and becomes more challenging, students struggle because they cannot integrate the old material with the new material. Do not: bring these materials to office hours, show them to the instructor before or after class, or include them in any emails. 2 COURSE POLICIES: In order for this large class to work both logistically and with fairness, certain policies must be in place for the entire semester. With this course, you need to: recognize that: 1. this is an in-residence course – can’t disappear for days/weeks expecting to make-up work 2. final grades are: earned based on mastery of material (not on attendance or negotiations) - not changed for financial aid and/or academic progress purposes. (also not curved or rounded) - individual extra credit will not be allowed either during or after the end of the semester 3. lab activities & LAQ’s must be completed during the scheduled time in the assigned lab room 4. all exams, including the final, can only be taken at the scheduled time (can’t take early) 5. you must sign up for exams and follow all rules when using the Computer Testing Center 6. your iclicker must be: correctly registered & properly working (including good batteries) 7. instructor does not answer questions about grade calculations or clicker issues by email 8. you must seek immediate help if having problems 9. you must submit your own work use Angel (with an acceptable browser and fully functioning internet connection): 1. to send email under the “Quick Message” option (no response to emails received outside Angel) with an acceptable greeting (includes a name), complete sentences, a subject line that clearly identifies the purpose for the email & class identification by lecture time (Class 1 or Class 2) 2. to regularly check: the grade book right after making a submission (can’t report problems days/weeks/months later) - Angel does not lose grades all posted materials and emails come to class: at the scheduled start time and willing to make the appropriate commitment (the instructor does not post or provide filled-in lecture slides) refrain from talking during class except as part of an activity as a matter of courtesy Late Adds must contact the instructor within 24 hours of adding the course. Academic Integrity: Academic integrity includes a commitment to not engage in or tolerate acts of falsification, misrepresentation or deception. Such acts of dishonesty violate the fundamental ethical principles of the Penn State community and compromise the worth of work completed by others. This course will follow the Eberly College of Science policy at http://science.psu.edu/current-students/Integrity/Policy.html Disability Policy: “Penn State welcomes students with disabilities into the University's educational programs. If you have a disability-related need for reasonable academic adjustments in this course, contact the Office for Disability Services (ODS) at 814-863-1807 (V/TTY), at 116 Boucke. For further information regarding ODS, please visit the Office for Disability Services Web site at http://equity.psu.edu/ods/. In order to receive consideration for course accommodations, you must contact ODS and provide documentation (see the documentation guidelines at http://equity.psu.edu/ods/guidelines/documentation-guidelines). Homework Quizzes & LAQ’s have already been adjusted to accommodate those who need additional time. Electronics Use Policy: Research has shown that using an electronic device with a screen during class distracts other students around you and hinders their learning**. To eliminate the screen distraction (halo effect), we will have two different zones in the classroom to accommodate both behaviors. Students who would like to be guaranteed a "screen free" environment should sit in the left half of the classroom (as you are facing the front). Students sitting in this area have committed to not using any electronic devices with a screen, of any size (laptop, phone, table, iPod, etc.) for the duration of the class period. It is fine to use your devices before class starts, but students in this zone have agreed to put them entirely away during the actual class time. Students, who will be using any electronic devices that have any kind of a screen, or who don't mind seeing others use such devices, should sit on the right half of the room. This applies regardless of the reason the student is using the device. However, all students must still use behaviors that show respect to all class members when using electronic devices. 3 COURSE ASSESSMENTS: Pretest (Attitudes and Knowledge): Must take in lab on Mon Jan 11 during the scheduled lab time if at least 85% of the class completes, with a good faith effort, everyone who takes will receive 5 extra credit points - grade won’t immediately appear in Angel Gradebook – NSF Grant Pretest (Math Skills Check): Thurs Jan 14 – Thurs Jan 21 (except for the weekend and MLK Day) take at the Computer Testing Center (104 Pollock) – 30 minutes (sign up in advance) goal: provide the instructor with background information about math skills and acquaint students with the computer testing center (bring pencil/pen) will receive extra credit points for every correct answer (no-make-ups) – 5 points max Posttest (Attitudes and Knowledge): Must take in lab on Mon Apr 25 during scheduled lab time if at least 85% of the class completes, with a good faith effort, everyone who takes will receive 5 extra credit points – grade won’t immediately appear in the Angel Gradebook – NSF Grant TABLE 2: SUMMARY OF NONEXTRA CREDIT ASSESSMENTS Assessments Exam 1: Fri Feb 5 Exam 2: Fri Feb 26 Exam 3: Thurs Mar 24 or Fri Mar 25 Exam 4: Fri Apr 22 Final Exam (must take during scheduled time & date) Lab Activity Quizzes (LAQ) - keep best 20 of 24 (make-up policy is posted) Homework (HW) - keep best 8 of 9 Clicker Scores - 3 scores (policy posted) Exam Wrapper (take after every exam) Total Pts: Each 60 100 250 10 12 30 1 Overall Pts 60 300 250 200 96 90 4 1000 Exams: (4 exams will be given/no drops) – can’t take early Exam 1: 25 questions while all other exams will include 30 multiple choice questions (60 minutes) take at Computer Testing Center (104 Pollock) on scheduled date & time (sign up in advance) topics will carry over from previous exams so that you can integrate course material some exam questions will come from clicker questions, homework, along with extra problems listed from the textbook provided a piece of scratch paper at exam (bring your own pencil/pen) – some helpful information is embedded – nothing else allowed such as a calculator, cellphone, notes, Bluetooth watch, etc. must follow the Testing Center policies – failure to do so will results in a “0” for the first offence evidence can come from witnesses, security cameras and computer records Exam Wrapper: (take after each exam) – all four scores count designed to help students learn about whether their strategy about studying for exams is optional Final Exam: comprehensive (50 questions) / (half of the questions come from a common test bank) can only take on scheduled date & time (schedule posted on Elion - Mon Feb 15) must follow same rules and procedures as found with exams Lab Activity Quizzes (LAQ): keep best 20 out of 24 scores take using Angel after completing each lab activity - 20 minutes consist of about 20 questions based on concepts covered in lectures and lab activities must take in Boucke lab during scheduled lab time (one try only) Homework (HW): keep best 8 out of 9 scores questions will come from the textbook (problems listed on Weekly Roadmap) – similar problems will be listed for practice where answers are provided in the back of the textbook problems will reinforce what is taught in lecture and revealed during the lab activities will be submitted inside Angel by a scheduled time and date (quiz format) – 30 minutes can take twice (best score will count) – will open on Thurs 1:00 PM for 72 hours (three days) can’t submit late and no adjustments for computer problems (don’t wait until last minute) Clicker Scores: keep all three scores detailed handout of policy and procedures is posted (please read) 4 MAKE-UP POLICY: Note: make-ups will not be granted to students who are not regularly participating in the class. This includes make-ups for any exam and the final. For make-ups that are approved: - work must be completed within three days of returning to campus/class - under the same conditions/restrictions that was used by other class members Lab Activity Quizzes & Homework Quizzes Make-Ups: no make-ups under most circumstances because the course is front-loaded with drops MOST IMPORTANT: with LAQ’s: everyone must use two drops (no exceptions) when sick, have surgery, attend funerals, at court, family issues, personal problems, missed the bus, bad weather, transportation/car issues, alarm on cell phone not working, work-related issues, Thon, etc. It is not necessary to email the instructor about missing class with regard to these misses. Angel will find the drops near the end of the semester. Class will be held unless the university shut downs extended illness/problems will be dealt with on an individual basis quizzes will be available for practice after all students have submitted Exams Make-ups: only allowed if you have a University-related excuse or a religious conflict, you must talk to the instructor in person and provide documentation with appropriate letterhead and signatures, prior to the exam for arrangements. Illnesses will be dealt with on an individual basis. Must contact the instructor by the exam day about any unexpected illnesses, etc. All exams will be available for review after all students have submitted Exams, including the Final Exam, cannot be taken early (no exceptions) GRADES: Reported in the Angel Grade Book based on points (not percent’s) - select “grades” with category under Repots assessments linked to the grade book will show a grade of “0” until a submission is actually made must check the Angel gradebook immediately after a submission/can’t report days or weeks later about missing grades Angel does not loose grades Instructor does not answer emails about grade calculations or clicker issues Final Grades: based on 1000 points most importantly, grades are earned based on academic performance point ranges for final grades are found in Table 3. grade boundaries must be set so that student performances can be fairly evaluated do not expect the grades to be curved (also cannot negotiate your grade or missed assignments at the end of or after the semester is over). will not be rounded. For example, a point total of 929.99 will be an A- grade, while a point total of 699.99 will be a D grade. some class extra credit options are available during the semester to off-set policies that must exist with large enrollment classes no individual extra credit allowed either during or after the semester is over TABLE 3: POINT BOUNDARIES FOR FINAL GRADES Final Grade Minimum Points Needed* A 930 points A900 points B+ 870 points B 830 points B800 points C+ 770 points C 700 points D 600 points F 0 points 5 TEXTBOOK COVERAGE: TABLE 4: CHAPTERS COVERED & CORRESPONDING TOPICS* Chapters Topics Chapter 1 (all sections) Overview of Statistics, Population, Sample, & Statistical Principles Chapter 2 (all sections) Descriptive Methods: (one quantitative) & (one categorical) variable Chapter 3: (all sections) Descriptive Methods: Regression & Correlation Chapter 4: Sections 4.1 – 4.4 Chi-square Procedure: 2X2 tables (relative risk, increased risk, odds) Chapter 5: Sections 5.1-5.3 Margin of error, polls, confidence interval, simple random sample Chapter 6: Sections 6.1-6.3 Design of “Randomized Experiments” &” Observational Studies” Chapter 7: Sections 7.1- 7.4, 7.7 Probability Interpretation, Rules & Flawed Intuitive Judgments Chapter 8: Sections 8.1- 8.7 Random variables, Binomial distribution, & Normal distribution Chapter 9: Sections 9.1- 9.4, 9.6, 9.9-9.10 Sampling Distributions, Central Limit Theorem Chapter 10: (all sections) Confidence Intervals: Population Proportion(s) Chapter 11: Sections 11.1 – 11.5 Confidence Intervals: Population Mean(s) Chapter 12: Sections (all sections) Hypothesis Tests: Population Proportion(s) Chapter 13: Sections 13.1 – 13.6 Hypotheses Tests: Population Mean(s) Chapter 14: Sections 14.3 Hypothesis tests: Population Correlation & Population Slope tests Chapter 15: Sections 15.1 & 15.2 Chi-square Tests: larger than 2X2 tables Pages 351, 352, 511, 514 in textbook Nonparametrics (Population Median) – just when to use – Central Limit Theorem *Not all chapters will be covered in the order found in the textbook. LETTERS OF RECOMMENDATION: Will only consider writing letters for students who: get to know me through several interactions (so that I can discover things to put in the letter) have a final grade of at least a B+ and when given 4-6 weeks of advanced notice SOME HELPFUL TIPS: The course requires both the acquisition of basic knowledge and conceptual understanding in order to successfully solve challenging problems. Unfortunately, memorization only allows for the acquisition of basic knowledge. Many students don’t learn all of the material that we’ll see in this course the first time they are exposed to it. So you can expect to do need several rounds of studying, trying, and evaluation to master such material. For enduring (deep) learning the three key components are: productive struggle, explicit connections, and deliberate practice Many studies have shown that multitasking is very detrimental to learning. When using this practice to complete a task, it often takes longer and leads to making mistakes. Under these conditions, the brain loses the capacity for deep thinking. I see my job like that of a coach – I do my best to help, but ultimately the student plays a very large role in his or her success. Thus, while I can help, ultimately learning is the responsibility of the student. The three top reasons why students do poorly in this class: 1. don’t attend class, 2. don’t complete the HW, and 3. become too dependent on Lion Tutors/Nittany Notes, etc. PENN STATE VALUES (APPROVED BY THE PRESIDENT’S COUNCIL IN JUNE 2015): Below are the six values for which everyone in the Penn State community should adhere to when making choices and decisions: 1. Integrity: We act with integrity and honesty in accordance with the highest academic, professional, and ethical standards. 2. Respect: We respect and honor the dignity of each person, embrace civil discourse, and foster a diverse and inclusive community. 3. Responsibility: We act responsibly, and we are accountable for our decisions, actions, and their consequences. 4. Discovery: We seek and create new knowledge and understanding, and foster creativity and innovation, for the benefit of our communities, society, and the environment. 5. Excellence: We strive for excellence in all our endeavors as individuals, an institution, and a leader in higher education. 6. Community: We work together for the betterment of our University, the communities we serve, and the world. 6 COURSE CALENDAR: Stat 200 Spring 2016: Sections 7- 9 (Class 2) Wk Date Assignment Mon Jan 4 – Mon Jan 11 Background Survey (Use some data in the first class) Pretest: Attitudes & Knowledge (must take during your 1 Mon Jan 11 scheduled lab in 214 Boucke –on this date - extra credit possible with at least 85% class participation) 1 Wed Jan 13 Introductory Lecture No Class – do in-class readings Take Reading Quiz1 on 1 Thurs Jan 14 the readings before lab on Thurs 1 Fri Jan 15 LAQ1 (Bring a copy of lab activity handout to class) 1 Thurs Jan 14 - Thurs Jan 19 Pretest Math Skills (sign up to take at computer testing center) – possible extra credit points – based on performance – no extensions – bring pen/pencil 2 Mon Jan 18 No Class - MLK Day – do assigned readings - Take Reading Quiz2 on readings before lab on Tues Lab Activity 2 handout is available 2 Tues Jan 19 2 Wed Jan 20 Lecture 1 (remember electronic policy) LAQ2 open after class until midnight Thurs (except during lecture on Thurs Jan 21) 2 Thurs Jan 21 Lecture 2 – first day use clickers (policy posted) 2 Fri Jan 22 LAQ3 3 Mon Jan 25 LAQ4 (HW1 – opens at 12:00 PM – 9:45 AM on Wed) 3 Wed Jan 27 Lecture 3 3 Thurs Jan 28 Lecture 4 3 Fri Jan 29 LAQ5 4 Mon Feb 1 LAQ6 (HW2 – opens at 12:00 PM – 9:45 AM on Wed) 4 Wed Feb 3 Exam Review (by instructor) – post worksheet 4 Thurs Feb 4 Instructor in office to answer questions 4 Fri Feb 5 Exam 1 in Computer Testing Center No new lab activities will be completed – TA will be in the 10:10 AM and 11:15 AM lab room to answer any questions you may have 5 Mon Feb 8 No Class (make-up day for Exam 1 if needed) 5 Wed Feb 10 Lecture 5 5 Thurs Feb 11 Lecture 6 5 Fri Feb 12 LAQ7 6 Mon Feb 15 LAQ8 (HW3 – opens at 12:00 PM – 9:45 AM on Wed) (Final Exam Date and Time will be available) – For University-Approved Conflict – must file for by Mar 6 6 Wed Feb 17 Lecture 7 6 Thurs Feb 18 Lecture 8 6 Fri Feb 19 LAQ9 7 Mon Feb 22 LAQ10 (HW4 – opens at 12:00 PM – 9:45 AM on Wed) 7 Wed Feb 24 Lecture 9 (LAQ11 - do between Wed & Fri (can do outside of class)) 7 Thurs Feb 25 Exam Review (by instructor) - post worksheet 7 Fri Feb 26 Exam 2 in Computer Testing Center 8 8 Mon Feb 29 Wed Mar 2 No new lab activities will be completed – TA will be in the 10:10 AM and 11:15 AM lab room to answer any questions you may have No Class (make-up day for Exam 2 if needed) Lecture 10 7 8 8 Thurs Mar 3 Fri Mar 4 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 Mon Mar 7 – Fri Mar 11 Mon Mar 14 Wed Mar 16 Thurs Mar 17 Fri Mar 18 Mon Mar 21 Wed Mar 23 Thurs Mar 24 Thurs Mar 24 – Fri Mar 25 Lecture 11 LAQ12 (HW5 – opens at 12:00 PM for entire break and remains open until Wed Mar 16 at 9:45 AM – except during 8 AM to 12:00 PM on Mon Mar 14 (scheduled labs) Spring Break – Safe Travels LAQ13 Lecture 12 Lecture 13 LAQ14 LAQ15 (HW6 – opens at 12:00 PM – 9:45 AM on Wed) Lecture 14 Exam Review (by instructor) - post worksheet Exam 3 in Computer Testing Center No new lab activities will be completed – TA will be in the 10:10 AM and 11:00 AM lab room to answer any questions you may have 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 Mon Mar 28 Wed Mar 30 Thurs Mar 31 Fri Apr 1 Mon Apr 4 Wed Apr 6 Thurs Apr 7 Fri Apr 8 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 Mon Apr 11 Wed Apr 13 Thurs Apr 14 Fri Apr 15 Mon Apr 18 Wed Apr 20 Thurs Apr 21 Fri Apr 22 Mon Apr 25 15 15 15 16 Wed Apr 27 Thurs Apr 28 Fri Apr 29 Mon May 2 – May 6 (LAQ16 - do between Wed & Sat (can do outside of class)) No Class Lecture 15 Lecture 16 LAQ17 LAQ18 (HW7 – opens at 12:00 PM – 9:45 AM on Wed) Lecture 17 Lecture 18 LAQ19 Late Drop Deadline LAQ20 (HW8 – opens at 12:00 PM – 9:45 AM on Wed) Lecture 19 Lecture 20 LAQ21 LAQ22 (HW9 – opens at 12:00 PM – 9:45 AM on Wed) Lecture 21 Exam Review (by instructor) - post worksheet Exam 4 in Computer Testing Center Posttest: Attitudes & Knowledge (must take during scheduled lab in 214 Boucke on this date– extra credit possible with at least 85% class participation ) Lecture 22 Review of Exam 4 and helpful information for the Final LAQ24 Final Exam - Date TBD Mon Feb 15 (Do not make plans to leave campus prior to the scheduled final exam date and time – cannot take early – must take on scheduled time and date – no make-ups Which type of student are you? 8