Developing Computational Tools that
are Useful to Decision Makers
Virginia Dale
Environmental Sciences Division
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
April 2006
A brief history of modeling for
resource management
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Beginnings of ecological modeling: Lotka Voterra, etc.
Attempts to understand human population dynamics
Explanations of dynamics of laboratory animals
Fisheries management
Development of computers
Systems ecology
Risk assessment
Models of land-use change
Value of models
 Summarize data
 Project possible outcomes
(e.g., visualizations)
 Explain/inform about range
of possibilities
 Provoke ideas (e.g., games)
Data
Projections
Models
Information
New Directions
 Trends
 Use of computers is growing
 More complex view of world
 Environmental pressures are
increasing
 Awareness of environmental
pressures increasing
 World is becoming
networked
 Globalization of economy
 Stakeholders more educated
and more actively involved
New Directions (continued)
 Philosophies of modeling
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A parsimonious approach
Assumptions are key
Generic modeling approaches
New Directions (continued)
 Future directions of using
ecological models for resource
management
 Know problem
 Keep close communication
between modeler and decision
makers
 Continue exploring diversity of
modeling approaches
 Use models to direct data
collection
 Explore alternative futures in a
gaming mode
Development of new tools
advances ecological modeling
 Computers allowed focus on interactions across time
 GIS (geographic information systems) allowed focus
on spatial interactions
 Analysis tools allowed focus on
 Sensitivity: the degree to which the system depends
upon potential variability of one parameter.
 Uncertainty: the influence of a parameter, given the
actual variation it represents, on the outcome.
Sensitivity analysis
 Provides a means for
determining
 Where the need for protection
is the greatest
 How to prevent wasteful
allocation of resources
 Identifies factors
 That should be consider in any
management action
 That, with small changes, affects
system’s resiliency
A conceptual model was useful to highlight
common values in the Grand Canyon
Systems diagram of Grand Canyon identifies effects on values
Control Processes
Flows
from dam
Effects
Values
Hydropower
and water
Sedimentation
Cultural resources
Beach
habitat
building
-Historic
-Prehistoric
-Spiritual
Mechanical
removal of
trout
Temperature
warming
experiment
(short-term
lethal)
Recreation
-Non-native fishery
-Fish guides
-Boating
-Private
-Commercial
-Boat guides
Reduction of trout
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-Cultural sites
Native fish species
and their habitats
Who is interested in ecological modeling for resource management?
A spectrum that runs between the
pure scholar and the decision maker
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Academic audience:
 Environmental scientists
 Social scientists
 Economists
 Landscape architects
 Planners
 Risk communicators
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Practitioner community:
 Resource planners
 Private and public land
owners
 Sociologists who deal with
goal and values
 Environmental engineers
 Applied ecologists
 Resource managers (e.g.,
foresters and fisheries
researchers and managers)
 Risk analysts
 Environmental lawyers.
 “Savvy” decision makers
 Training audience
Most scientists are “introverted,
intuitive, thinking, judging” (INTJ)
 Are visionary and excel at creating systems
 Can understand complex and difficult subjects
 Enjoy creative and intellectual challenges
 Are good at theoretical and technical analysis and logical
problem solving
 Work well alone and are determined even in the face of
opposition.
(Tieger, P.D. and BarronTieger, B. 1992. Boston:
Little, Brown and Company)
However, INTJs can also
 Be less interested in projects after creative
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problem solving is completed
Drive others as hard as they drive themselves
Be too independent to adapt to corporate
culture
Have difficulty working with or for others they
consider less competent
Be inflexible and single-minded about their
ideas.
Politicians are most often extraverted,
intuitive, feeling, judging (ENFJ)
 Tend to promote harmony and build
cooperation
 Respect a variety of opinions
 Are decisive and organized
 Are natural leaders.
(Tieger, P.D. and Barron-Tieger, B. 1992.
Boston: Little, Brown and Company)
However, ENFJs also
 May have trouble dealing with conflict
 Tend to sweep problems under the rug
 May not be attentive to factual accuracy
 May take criticism too personally
Resource managers are both blessed and
cursed by the attention of biologists.
Scientists:
 Are rewarded for novelty
 Often suggest and
sometimes test new ideas
for management.
Managers:
 Are expected to employ the
latest scientific develops
 Find that application of
untried ideas can result in
failure
 Are often unsure as to what is
the most appropriate
technology.
New ideas should be tested with empirical data
before new methods are adopted.
(Schwartz, M.W, 1999. Annual
Review of Ecology and Systematics
30: 83-108)
Scientists and decision makers come
from different fields of endeavor
 Scientist who wish to contribute to policy are a
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subset of all scientists
Science only has value for decision-making
when it can influence a decision.
Neither scientists nor decision makers are a
singular entity.
Scientists need to better understand the
spectrum of concerns in the policy process.
Decision makers typically accept a different
level of uncertainty than scientists.
Communication between scientists
and decision makers is critical
 Scientific information is only useful to
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decision making when policy questions
are addressed.
Decision makers often not aware that
science can pertain to a policy issue.
Regular discussions between scientists
and decision makers can enhance
communications and build mutual
respect.
Communication is a two-way street.
Scientific results are rarely expressed
in terms that have meaning or value to
decision-makers.
How might resource managers use
models?
Their responses:
 Planning budgets
 Provide a “heads up” regarding compliance
 Heading toward non-compliance?
 Signal whether on right path toward
achieving longer term goals
 Signal whether on right path to achieve
shorter term objectives
 Suggest need for targeted research
 The “holy cow” scenario
Photo: Fort Bragg
Resource managers noted that
some approaches are conditional
 “Cheaper is better, but more expensive might
be ok”
If associated with
 Critical land use needs
 Red list (Endangered Species)
 Isolated populations (“lucrative targets”)
 Broad applicability is better, but narrow
applicability might be ok
The art of modeling requires
 Attention to perspective of interest
 Identifying key contributors to change
 Clean explanation of
 Assumptions
 Model projections
 Definition of uncertainties and sensitivities
The Blind Men and the Elephant
-- John Godfrey Saxe
It was six men of Indostan
To learning much inclined
Who went to see the Elephant
(Though all of them were blind)
That each by observation
Might satisfy his mind.
The First
The First approached the Elephant
And, happening to fall
Against his broad and sturdy side,
At once began to bawl:
"God bless me, but the Elephant
Is very like a wall!"
The Second
The Second, feeling the tusk,
Cried, "Ho! what have we here
So very round and smooth and sharp?
To me 'tis very clear
This wonder of an Elephant
Is very like a spear!"
The Third
The Third approached the animal
And, happening to take
The squirming trunk within his hands,
Thus boldly up and spake:
"I see," quoth he, "The Elephant
Is very like a snake!"
The Fourth
The Fourth reached out an eager hand,
And felt about the knee:
"What most the wondrous beast is like
Is very plain," quoth he;
"Tis clear enough, the Elephant
Is very like a tree!"
The Fifth
The Fifth, who chanced to touch the ear,
Said: "Even the blindest man
Can tell what this resembles most;
Deny the fact who can
This marvel of an elephant
Is very like a fan!?"
The Sixth
The Sixth no sooner had begun
About the beast to grope
Than, seizing on the swinging tail
That fell within his scope,
"I see," quoth he, "the Elephant
Is very like a rope!"
And so these men of Indostan
Disputed loud and long
Each in his own opinion
Exceeding stiff and strong.
Though each was partly in the right,
They all were in the wrong!
Moral
So oft in theologic wars
The disputants, I ween,
Rail on in utter ignorance
Of what each other mean,
And prate about an Elephant
Not one of them has seen
Choosing the right scale is the first step in
developing models useful for decision making