Why Florida needs
The University of Tennessee:
Everglades Restoration, Computing,
Mathematics and Public Policy
Louis J. Gross
The Institute for Environmental Modeling
Departments of Ecology and Evolutionary
Biology and Mathematics
University of Tennessee
ATLSS.org
Tales from the Real
World: Mathematics and
Computing Meets Greed,
Politics, Lawyers and
the Army Corps of
Engineers
Overview
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•
•
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Everglades natural history
History of hydrology in South Florida
Restoration planning
Computational ecology
– The ATLSS project and Everglades
restoration
• Some lessons from ATLSS
Key Points
• Computational approaches can help to analyze
solutions for environmental problems
• Realistic modeling of natural systems requires
multiple linked approaches – multimodeling and new methods are needed to develop and
analyze these.
• Much of applied ecology deals with problems of
spatial control – what to do, where to do it, when
to do it, and how to monitor it – and these
problems are not easily solved.
Wet Season:
May-October
Dry Season:
November-April
Photos: South Florida Water Management District
Panther telemetry: 1999
Recent panther locations
Brief History of Alterations to the Everglades
1850 - US Congress passes "Swamp and Overflowed Lands
Act" - conveys Florida's swamp and overflowed lands to
State ownership.
1882 - First outlet built from Lake Okeechobee to the Gulf
through the Caloosahatchee River and lake level drops
1906 - Everglades Drainage District digs over 665 miles of
drainage canals over the period to 1927, providing for
draining the northern and eastern parts of the Everglades.
1910 - First wave of non-native settlers begins, with over 2000
inhabitants by 1921 in agriculture at southern end of lake.
1926 - Hurricane causes over 200 deaths.
1928 - Hurricane causes Lake to overflow, 2400 people die.
1929 - Okeechobee Flood Control District created to cooperate
with the Army Corps of Engineers in flood control.
1931 - Drought conditions over next 15 years cause salt water
intrusion into Miami wells, peat dries out and large muck fires
burn.
1947 - High rainfall and hurricanes flood over 90% of Florida
south of Orlando with $60M in damage
1948 - Congress approves Central and Southern Florida Flood
Control Project, Florida forms Central and Southern Florida Flood
Control District, (now the South Florida Water Management
District) to cooperate with Corps.
1950 - Beginning of C&SF Project with support from several
Congressional Acts.
1968 - Flood Control Act authorizes modifications of C&SF
Project to increase water delivery to Everglades National Park.
1989 - Everglades National Park Protection and Expansion Act
directs Corps: "to take steps to restore the natural hydrological
conditions within the park."
1992 - Water Resources Development Act authorizes modifications
to the C&SF Project for ecosystem restoration of the Kissimmee
River.
C&SF Project facilities include 30 pumping stations, 212 control
and diversion structures, 990 miles of levees, 978 miles of canals,
25 navigation locks, and 56 railroad bridges.
1992 - Congress authorizes Comprehensive Review
Study (Restudy) of the C&SF Project to develop
modifications to restore the Everglades and Florida Bay
ecosystems while providing for the other water-related
needs of the region.
1999 - Restudy Plan submitted to Congress on July 1.
Restudy Objective:
Develop a comprehensive plan for implementing
changes needed to meet water supply needs through
2050 and restore over 2.4 million acres of the greater
Everglades ecosystem
Agencies involved in Restudy:
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Environmental Protection Agency
National Park Service
National Marine Fisheries Service
Natural Resources Conservation Service
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer
Services
Florida Department of Environmental Protection
Florida Game and Fresh Water Fish Commission
South Florida Water Management District
Miccosukee Tribe
Seminole Tribe
plus input from numerous NGO's and individuals.
Plan includes:
Reconnecting over 80 percent of the remaining
Everglades by removing over 240 miles of internal
levees and canals.
Reduce the average of 1.7 billion gallons of water
wasted every day from discharges to the ocean
Additional land purchases of 47,000 acres as an
addition to ENP
Approximate cost: $7.8 Billion over 20 years
How did UT get involved in
this?
• Starting in 1991, we were asked to help
develop some basic models for the
endangered wood stork
• We were contacted because we had a
world-renowned program in mathematical
ecology
• We proceeded to become the lead
developer of the ecological models used to
assess alternative hydrologic plans for
restoration
• Since 1991, UT has received more than
$2.5M for the project
• During the intensive period prior to the
plan’s submission to Congress in 1999,
we compared more than 30 different
plans and these comparisons served as
the main (in some ways, the only)
detailed ecological assessments applied
to develop the chosen plan
• No one else in the world could have
done what we did in the time available
and with the level of detail we provided
What is Restoration?
Water Resources Development Act of 1996, Section 528:
Everglades and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration states:
"The Secretary shall develop, as expeditiously as practicable,
a proposed comprehensive plan for the purpose of restoring,
preserving, and protecting the South Florida ecosystem. The
comprehensive plan shall provide for the protection of water
quality in, and the reduction of the loss of fresh water from,
the Everglades. The comprehensive plan shall include such
features as are necessary to provide for the water-related
needs of the region, including flood control, the enhancement
of water supplies, and other objectives served by the Central
and Southern Florida Project."
Note that the above has no details about:
Ecosystem function (nutrient and energy flows, trophic
structure, ecosystem services)
Threatened and endangered species
Returning hydrology to a "natural" state (patterns and flows)
Non-native species invasions
Pollutants in the system
Wildlife populations
BUT the above list is what many environmental groups desire
as well as being the mandate for several government agencies
(e.g. NPS, FWS).
What is computational ecology?
An interdisciplinary field devoted to the
quantitative description and analysis of
ecological systems using empirical data,
mathematical models (including statistical
models), and computational technology.
Focus includes: Data Management,
Modeling, and Visualization (Helly et al.,
1995)
Computational Ecology
Theory development
• How do population and
community properties arise
from individual behaviors?
• How does spatial and
temporal heterogeneity
affect population and
communities?
• How are distribution and
abundance of species
linked to spatio-temporal
patterns of evolution?
Applications
• How do we link dynamic
models with spatial data
to aid natural system
monitoring and
management, including
reserve design, water
flow control, and
harvesting schedules?
• How do we include
socio-economic analysis
with ecological models?
Environmental Modeling
Species densities
Data sources
Animal telemetry
GIS map layers (Vegetation,
hydrology, elevation),Weather,
Roads, Species densities
Physical conditions
Monitoring
Models
Statistical
Management input
Differential
equations
Harvest regulation
Matrix
Water control
Reserve design
Agent-based
Analysis
Visualization, corroboration,
sensitivity, uncertainty
Simulation
Matlab, C++, Distributed, Parallel
Ecological Assessment
Determination of the impacts of various
anthropogenic influences on a natural
system. Common components would be:
• Changes in population densities of "important"
species, either culturally or economically
• Biodiversity effects
• Non-native species introductions
• Changes in community structure (which may not
necessarily be associated with biodiversity
changes)
• Effects of pollutant inputs
• Direct effects of human actions on the system
(e.g. hunting, deforestation, sewage/waste
disposal)
• Indirect effects of human actions (e.g. habitat
fragmentation, soil erosion, salinity changes)
Coupled with the above for regional
assessment would be taking account of the
impacts on humans as well, including:
• Human population density changes
• Economic impacts
• Land use changes and effects on
urban/rural/commercial/residential
percentages and the long term impact of
these on future human needs
• Agricultural productivity
• Social/cultural changes
• Cultural attitudes towards conservation
• Regional environmental issues
Everglades natural system management requires
decisions on short time periods about what water
flows to allow where and over longer planning
horizons how to modify the control structures to
allow for appropriate controls to be applied.
This is very difficult!
•The control objectives are unclear and
differ with different stakeholders.
•Natural system components are
poorly understood.
•The scales of operation of the physical
system models are coarse.
So what have we done?
Developed a multimodel (ATLSS - Across Trophic
Level System Simulation) to link the physical and
biotic components.
Compare the dynamic impacts of alternative
hydrologic plans on various biotic components
spatially.
Let different stakeholders make their own
assessments of the appropriate ranking of
alternatives.
http://atlss.org
ATLSS (Across Trophic Level
System Simulation)
ATLSS is structured as a multimodel, a
mixture of modeling approaches based upon
the inherent temporal scales and spatial
extent of various trophic components,
linked together by spatially-explicit
information on underlying environmental
(e.g. water, soil structure, etc.), biotic
(e.g. vegetation), and anthropogenic
factors (e.g. land-use). The approaches
currently involved include static
spatially-explicit indices, compartment
analysis, differential equations for
structured populations and communities, and
individual-based models.
What ATLSS attempts to do
• Provide a general methodology for
regional assessment of natural systems by
coupling physical and biotic processes in
space and time using a mixture of
modeling approaches.
• Utilize the best available science and
intuition of many biologists with extensive
field experience to construct models for
particular system components and link
these at appropriate spatial and temporal
resolutions
What ATLSS attempts to do (con’d)
• Provide a method to compare the relative
impacts of alternative management of the
region on the natural systems, so different
stakeholders can focus on sub-regions,
species, or conditions of particular interest
to them.
• Ensure that the structure of the multimodel
is extensible so that as new models, data
and monitoring information becomes
available, it may be efficiently utilized.
Individual-Based
Models
Age/Size Structured
Models
Cape Sable
Seaside Sparrow
Snail Kite
White-tailed Deer
Wading Birds
Florida Panther
Fish Functional Groups
Alligators
Radio-telemetry
Tracking Tools
Reptiles and Amphibians
Linked Cell
Models
Lower Trophic Level Components
Vegetation
Process Models
Spatially-Explicit
Species Index Models
Cape Sable
Seaside Sparrow
Long-legged
Wading Birds
Short-legged
Wading Birds
Snail Kite
Abiotic Conditions
Models
High Resolution Topography High Resolution Hydrology
White-tailed Deer
Alligators
Disturbance
© TIEM / University of Tennessee 1999
ATLSS High Resolution Topography
* The High Resolution
Topography model provides
more detail about local
variation in elevation.
* The detail captures variation
in elevation due to important
features such as tree islands.
High Resolution Topography
Water Management Model Topography
ATLSS High Resolution Hydrology
* With the High Resolution
Topography, High Resolution
Hydrology values can be created from
the SFWMD hydrology.
High Resolution Hydrology
* Hydrology values created in this way
provide the spatial variation and
resolution required to model the
dynamics of many animal populations
in South Florida.
4 miles
SFWMD Hydrology4 miles
How High Resolution Topography Is Made.
Habitat cover map, provided by the
Florida GAP analysis
4 miles
At each location in the Florida GAP map, the model predicts a ground surface which is higher or
lower than the base ground surface, derived from the hydroperiod of the cell, as given by the SFWMD
hydrology data, and the estimated hydroperiod for the habitat type at that location.
The total volume of water predicted by the SFWMD model in each grid cell is preserved in the
High Resolution Hydrology Model.
Estimates of hydroperiod for each habitat
type in the Florida GAP analysis map.
Class
MinHp
0
365
45
180
30
15
40
45
0
365
10
60
0
0
10
0
….
….
….
A hydroperiod curve for each location on the
map showing the number of days the water
surface was at or above each elevation. This
curve is generated from the
Calibration/Validation run of the SFWMD
hydrology model.
Max HP
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
ATLSS SESI Models
Implement and Execute the Models for a Hydrology Scenario
Objectives: Integrate SESI components into a cohesive computational
framework and apply the models to a hydrology scenario.
Hydrology Scenario
Daily Water Depth
Distribute water over high resolution
topography
High Resolution Hydrology
SESI Models
Cape Sable
Seaside Sparrow
Are the nests
flooded during
egg incubation?
Snail
Kite
Are conditions
favorable for the
apple snails they
depend on?
Wading Birds
Are water depths in
the correct range for
the fish they eat?
Standard Output Generation/Visualization Tools
White-tailed
Deer
Is breeding
disrupted by
high water
levels?
American
Alligator
Is there high ground
to build a nest on?
ALFISH
Objectives
•Provide estimates of effects of alternative water
management scenarios on spatial and temporal
distribution of food resources for upper trophic
level consumers (wading birds).
•Provide method to evaluate hypothesized impact of
hydrologic changes on fish community composition.
ATLSS Landscape Fish Model
Holly Gaff, Rene’ Salinas, Louis Gross, Don
DeAngelis, Joel Trexler, Bill Loftus and John
Chick
Approach
A size-structured population model for fish functional
groups (large and small fish) that operates on a spatial
cell basis with movement between cells and between
habitats within cells.
ALFISH FLOW CHART
Fish Cell Layout
Example of Small Fish
Least Killifish
Heterandria formosa
Female
Male
Pond areas assumed permanently
wet, marsh areas periodically dry
Landscape Layout and Movement
Fish as Prey
Fish provide the prey-base for
endangered wading bird species such
as Great Egret (Casmerodius albus)
White - movement from low water to high water areas
Red - movement from high fish density to low density areas
SIMSPAR Flow Diagram
Projected Population Size
Fledgling
Productivity Maps
Take-Home Messages.
• Realistic modeling of natural systems requires
multiple linked approaches – multimodeling
• Multimodeling provides stakeholders with tools
they need to have input into regional planning
• ATLSS has been successful in providing a
flexible structure in which new models can be
included, and new data taken into account to
modify existing models
• ATLSS has provided a rational approach, based
upon the best available science, for providing
multiple stakeholders with some of the tools
they need to have input into regional planning
Lessons from ATLSS - Doing the Modeling:
Work closely with those with long experience in the
system being modeled and use their experience to
determine key species, guild and trophic functional
groups on which to focus.
Moderate the above based first on the availability of
data to construct reasonable models, and secondly on
the difficulty of constructing and calibrating the
models.
Don't try to do it all at once - start small - but have a
long-term plan for what you wish to include overall,
given time and funding.
Lessons from ATLSS - Doing the Modeling:
Leave room for multiple approaches: don't limit
your options.
In the face of limited or inappropriate data, use
this as an opportunity to encourage further
empirical investigations of key components of the
system.
Build flexibility in as much as possible.
Be flexible about what counts as success.
Lessons from ATLSS - Personnel Matters:
Build a quality team who respect each others
abilities and won't second guess each other, but who
accept criticism in a collegial manner.
Keep some part of the team out of the day-to-day
political fray.
Be persistent, and have at least one member of the
team who is totally dedicated to the project and
willing to stake their future on it.
Do whatever you can to maintain continuity in the
source of long-term support for the project.
Lessons from ATLSS - Interacting with
Stakeholders:
Constantly communicate with stakeholders.
Regularly explain the objectives of your modeling
effort, as well as the limitations, to stakeholders. Be
prepared to do this over and over for the same
people, and do not get frustrated when they forget
what you are doing and why.
Be prepared to regularly defend the scientific validity
of your approach.
Lessons from ATLSS - Interacting with
Stakeholders:
Don't limit your approach because one
stakeholder/funding agency wants you to.
Be prepared for criticism based upon non-scientific
criteria, including personal attacks.
Ignore any of the stakeholders at your peril.
So is the planned restoration worth
$8,000,000,000?
Some argue that there is precious little “restoration”
in the plan, and lots of water for future development.
Additionally some say that the constraints on the plan
(e.g. don’t remove the agricultural areas and continue
to subsidize them with government funds) so limited
the planning that there was no hope for greatly
improving the natural system functioning.
Others argue that the plan is much “better” than what
we have now, so let’s fund it and go ahead.
So what do you think?
Acknowledgements
• USGS Biological Resources Division
• National Science Foundation
• UT Center for Information Technology
Research
• UT Scalable Intra-Campus Network Grid
Collaborations in ATLSS
In addition to various Federal and State cooperators, ATLSS
has involved researchers at
Florida International University
Southwestern Louisiana University
University of Florida
University of Maryland
University of Miami
University of Tennessee
University of Washington
National Wetland Research Center (USGS)
The Institute for Bird Populations
Everglades Research Group
Netherlands Institute of Ecology