Treasurer’s National Press Club
Address
11 May 2005
Underlying cash balance
Per cent of GDP 3
3 Per cent of GDP
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
Projections
1
Estimates
2
Outcomes
2
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
1992-93
1996-97
2000-01
2004-05
2008-09
Budget balances in OECD and Australia
3
Per cent of GDP
Per cent of GDP
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
1995-96
1997-98
1999-00
OECD
2001-02
Australia
2003-04
2005-06
Net debt and net interest payments
15
Estimates
Per cent of GDP
Per cent of GDP
Outcomes
20
2.0
1.5
10
1.0
5
0.5
0
1980-81
0.0
1984-85
1988-89
Net debt (LHS)
1992-93
1996-97
2000-01
Net interest payments (RHS)
2004-05
$5.7 billion of interest savings
$billion
$billion
30
Assistance
to families
with children
25
25
Hospitals
& schools
20
Assistance
to families
with children
15
10
30
Public debt
interest
15
Hospitals
& schools
10
Public debt
interest
5
20
5
0
0
1996-97
2005-06
Future Fund
160
$billion
$billion
160
120
120
80
80
40
40
0
0
2005-06
2007-08
2009-10
2011-12
Target for Future Fund Assets
2013-14
2015-16
2017-18
Unfunded Liability
2019-20
Unemployment rate
Per cent
Per cent
Forecasts
12
11
12
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
4
2006
Inflation
Per cent
Per cent
20
Forecasts
20
15
15
10
10
Target band
5
5
0
0
-5
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
-5
2006
Personal income tax scales
2005-06 Tax scale
2004-05 Tax scale
2006-07 Tax scale
Income range
($)
Tax rate
%
Income range
($)
Tax rate
%
Income range
($)
Tax rate
%
0 – 6,000
0
0 – 6,000
0
0 – 6,000
0
6,001 – 21,600
17
6,001 – 21,600
15
6,001 – 21,600
15
21,601 – 58,000
30
21,601 – 63,000
30
21,601 – 70,000
30
58,001 – 70,000
42
63,001 – 95,000
42
70,001 – 125,000
42
70,000 +
47
95,001 +
47
125,001 +
47
Tax savings by income level
20
Tax cut per year ($)
Tax cut per year (% of tax paid)
15
10
5
0
10,000
30,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
Taxpayer's annual income ($)
Tax savings - $ per year (RHS)
Tax savings - percentage reduction (LHS)
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
150,000
Increasing Australia’s international
competitiveness
12
Top threshold, multiple of the average production wage (bars)
Top rate, per cent (dots)
80
70
10
Top rate
60
8
50
6
40
Australia (1 July 2006)
Australia (now)
30
4
20
2
Top threshold
USA
Turkey
0
Korea
Japan
Portugal
Italy
France
Poland
Switzerland
Austria
Norway
Spain
Canada
Finland
Australia
Greece
Sweden
Mexico
Czech Rep
Netherlands
Germany
UK
NZ
Iceland
Luxembourg
Australia
Ireland
Belgium
Slovak Rep
Denmark
0
Hungary
10
Personal tax cuts over time
Per cent reduction
Per cent reduction
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
10
20
30
TNTS tax cuts
40
50
2003-04 tax cuts
60
70
Income ($'000)
2004-05 tax cuts
80
90
2005-06 tax cuts
100
110
0
120
2006-07 tax cuts
Income support recipients
1,200
Payment recipients ('000s)
1,000
1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
Payment recipients ('000s)
1,200
1,000
800
800
800
800
600
600
600
600
400
400
400
400
200
200
200
200
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Newstart Allowance
0
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Parenting Payment (Single)
Disability Support Pension
0
Elements of Welfare to Work reform
Obligations
Employer Demand
Compliance
Services
Payments
Spending to help people into work
$million
$million
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
Child care places
500,000
Places
Places
500,000
400,000
400,000
300,000
300,000
200,000
200,000
100,000
100,000
0
0
1996
Family day care
2006
2008
Outside school hours care