FUTURREG
Futures for Regional Development
Futures Workshop
Turku, June 7, 2006
Structure
1. « Visionary management » approach
2. Case studies/applications
3. Exchanges with the participants :
experiences and some key questions of
the participants
1. « Visionary management » approach
The Foresight process
0
Evaluation of the
process and outputs
Preparation
7
6
Steering and monitoring
the implementation
1
Foresight diagnosis
5
Measures and
concrete
actions
Inputs of the
stakeholders
2
4
Setting out the
long terms issues
Definition of
strategic axis
3
Building the common vision
Source : Regional Foresight
Group of the Mutual
Learning Platform
Visionary management consists in bringing a
group of actors - involved in a territory (defined or to be
defined), a business or an organisation, etc. - to project
their ideas into the long-term future in order to envisage
the goals and values that form a common vision of their
future on behalf of the general interest, and to do this in
a collective and shared dynamics.
A vision is a shared picture of the desired future.
The vision is made up of the ultimate aims which could
show the long-term direction that should guide the
common strategy of the decision makers, the
stakeholders and the citizens
Key phases of the Foresight process
Preparation phase (clarification of objectives and motivations,
scope of the exercise, timescale, steering structures,
budget, communication, etc.)
Foresight phase (analysing, thinking and debating the
future)
1. Foresight diagnosis
2. Setting up the long term issues
3. Building the common vision
Strategic phase (Shaping the future)
4. Definition of strategic axis
5. Measures and concrete actions
6. Steering and monitoring the implementation
7. Evaluation of the foresight process and outputs
Visionary management
is actually part of a strategic foresight
process structured in seven main
phases
Ultimate aims,
Long term
common
issues
vision
Identification
and diagnosis
Scope
Objectives
Methods
Broad and complete
information base
Expressing the mental
representations,
confronting with the
realities,
sharing of the diagnosis
Working groups,
SWOT analysis,
benchmarking,
etc.
Sources of change,
internal and external
trends and impacts in
terms of issues
Global driving forces,
main issues
role and power of actors
against issues
Foresight
workshops,
computer-based
tools (MICMAC),
control matrix
Normative phase of
defining a future
vision
Desirable futures,
sharing of the vision
Matrices
comparing
possible and
desirable futures
Identification and diagnosis
Providing
Knowledge base
Identify the
common ground
Express the mental
representations
Confrontation with
the realities
Sharing of the
diagnosis
Working groups
SWOT
Analysis
Assessment data
Benchmarking
Setting out the long-term issues
Exploring the
possible futures
Gearing global with
local
Grading the long
term issues
Trends Issues
Gearing
Importance vs
Control Matrix
LIPSOR’s
MICMAC Software
Global
External
Trends
Trends
Issues
Gearing
Movement
Fabienne
Goux-Baudiment
Namur, 01.06.18
ISSUES
Internal
Trends
Local
Past
Future
Importance
of the changes
/ inertias
Strong
Importance
vs Control
Matrix
Michel Godet
Creating Futures
2001, p. 95.
Weak
Current
control
Weak
Strong
Building the Aims and the
Common Vision
Formulating the
desirable futures
Ultimate Aims
Sharing of the
vision
Foresight
Workshops
Possibles vs
Desirables Matrix
How to bridge the present with desired future ?
THE ULTIMATE AIMS = THE VISION
2010
2020
2015
THE ISSUES
DIAGNOSIS
Graphisme Nicolas George
Complementarity/synergy with other tools
►Scenarios approach is a tool that can be integrated in
the proposed approach to illustrate the spectrum of possible
futures before building the chosen future defined by the
vision.
2. Case studies/applications
1. Charleroi 2020
2. Foresight of enterprises’ policies in
Wallonia
3.Vision 2020 of the Large Region
Charleroi 2020
Charleroi 2020
Context
To update previous initiatives :
- 1991 : Charleroi city project
- 1994 : Metropolitan Charleroi city charter 21
Initiative :
- The city of Charleroi
Objectives :
-
-
To enable all the residents to help build a vision of their region's
development and design a collective strategy to achieve this
desired future;
Civil society participants and citizens as well were encouraged to
mobilise in order to define what Charleroi and its Urban Community
wished to become and install the conditions for collective wellbeing by the 2020 horizon.
Charleroi 2020
Involvement : a citizenship experience
-
Over 1,100 people participated in the exercise;
Citizens, neighbourhood representatives, outside experts, heads of
businesses and associations, retailers, teachers, civil servants and
politicians.
Results : Common vision (ultimate aims), strategic lines, innovative crosssectoral actions
Lessons / difficulties :
-
-
A methodological problem. It was found hard to move beyond a strictly
thematic approach and to integrate the long-term variables by the
participants.
The solution proposed was to make room for a foresight phase that had
not been planned initially so as to identify the long-term issues and a
common vision prior to defining a territorial strategy.
The phases of Charleroi 2020
Phase 1: Shared diagnosis based on
the evaluation of Charleroi Métropole 21
Phase 2: Long-term issues
Evolution of environment now to 2020
Phase 3: Common vision
Ultimate aims for the 2020 horizon
Phase 4: Strategic lines for
Charleroi's development from 2004
Phase 5: Formulation, hierarchisation, &
implementation of innovative actions
F
O
R
E
S
I
G
H
T
S
T
R
A
T
E
G
Y
Vision 2020 of the Large Region
Vision 2020 : Large Region
Context :
- A long tradition of transborder cooperation;
- The political summits of the Large Region
Initiative :
- The 5th political summit of the Large Region in 2001
- A proposal to develop a common perspective for further
development and a common strategic vision.
Objectives :
-
To restructure the strategic orientation of cross-border
co-operation in the Large Region over the next 20 years
Vision 2020 : Large Region
Involvement : a focus on decision makers
The vision was developed by a limited group of decision makers
gathered in a Political Commission under the chairmanship of
the former European Commission President Jacques Santer
Results : Common vision of the future, a new potential framework
to develop the Large Region co-operation zone.
Lessons / difficulties :
-
-
Need to involve all the Large Region stakeholders to take into
account the expectations and concrete needs of the citizens
who were not part of the exercise;
A gap was observed between Vision 2020's ambitions and the
means foreseen for its actual implementation, as indicated in
the declaration of the 7th Summit.
Long term vision of enterprises’ policies in Wallonia
2020
environment
factors of change
competitiveness
Foresight
instruments
initiatives
issues
strategic guidelines
Concrete actions
2003
Foresight of enterprises’ policies in
Wallonia
Context :
- One of the actions of the Plan 4X4 Pour entreprendre.
Initiative :
- Head of Cabinet of Regional Administration of economy in
Wallonia.
Objectives :
-
To insert company policy in Wallonia into a long-term
perspective that would compromise the factors of
structural change impacting on the competitiveness of
companies and their environement.
Foresight of enterprises’ policies in
Wallonia
Involvement : a focus on companies’ involvement and
decision makers (public and private)
Exercise organised around a Core Group (Cabinet, administration,
Walloon Companies’ Union, Belgian and international experts)
and thematic groups of companies and key-actors.
Results : Long term issues, strategy, innovative actions
Lessons / difficulties :
-
Companies taking part were an unrepresentative sample of Walloon
enterprises (large and very innovative enterprises);
Representative of the Minister who fathered the idea of the exercise in the
first place left the Cabinet, so the political relay was no longer ensured;
A mixed pilot group consisting of cabinet members, experts and enterprise
federation members, all heavily involved for the duration of the project,
especially the administration that contributed incisive knowledge of
existing regional instruments.
Eight dimensions et two priorities
for enterprises’ policies in 2020
TWO
PRIORITIES
FOUR
MOTORS
TO ACTIVATE
2004
FOUR MAIN
ISSUES
2020
Consultation of companies on priority actions
New institutional
efficacity
New institutional
efficacity
Local and global
competitiveness
in the knowledge
society
Recreate
educational
blueprints that
are both creative
and cultural
Build an
economy based
on operational,
efficient
networks
Build the external
and internal
opening-up of
the Walloon
economy
Local and global
competitiveness
in the knowledge
society
B1
A2
Recreate
educational
blueprints that
are both
creative and
cultural
Build an economy
based on
operational,
efficient networks
Build the external
and internal
opening-up of
the Walloon
economy
C1
D1
E1
C2
D2
E2
D3
E3
A3
B3
A4
B4
C4
A5
B6
C5
E4
D5
3. Exchanges with the participants :
experiences and some key questions of
the participants
1. Context and scope of the exercise
2. Desire of foresight (when to launch?)
3. Recrutment and commitment of the stakeholders
4. Emergence and management of creativity
5. Ownership process
6. Building a community of practices at regional level
(continuous foresight?)
7. Societal learning process
8. Dissemination of the work
…What else?
Pascale Van Doren
Foresight Unit of The Destree Institute
Vandoren.pascale@destree.org
http://www.destree.org
http://www.wallonie-en-ligne.net