Chapter 8: The Goods Market and the Aggregate Expenditures Model Prepared by: Kevin Richter, Douglas College Charlene Richter, British Columbia Institute of Technology © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 1 The Historical Development of Modern Macroeconomics The Great Depression of the 1930s led to the development of macroeconomics and aggregate demand tools to deal with recessions. During the Depression, output fell by 30 percent and unemployment rose to 25 percent. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 2 The Historical Development of Modern Macroeconomics Keynes is the author of The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, which provided the new framework for macroeconomic policy. Keynes is pronounced “canes” © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 3 Classical Economists The Classical economists' approach was laissez-faire (leave the market alone). They believed the market was self-adjusting. They concentrated on the long run and largely ignored the short run. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 4 Classical Economics They used microeconomic supply and demand arguments to explain the Great Depression. Their solution to the high unemployment was to eliminate labour unions and government policies that kept wages too high. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 5 The Historical Development of Modern Macroeconomics Before the Depression, the prominent ideology was laissez-faire -- keep the government out of the economy. After the Depression, most people believed government should have a role in regulating the economy. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 6 The Layperson's Explanation for Unemployment Laypeople believed that the depression was caused by an oversupply of goods that glutted the market. They wanted the government to hire the unemployed even if the work was not needed. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 7 The Layperson's Explanation for Unemployment Classical economists opposed deficit spending, arguing that the money to create jobs had to be borrowed. This money would have financed private economic activity and jobs, so everything would cancel out. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 8 The Essence of Keynesian Economics Keynes thought that the economy could get stuck in a rut as wages and price level adjusted to sudden decreases in expenditures. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 9 The Essence of Keynesian Economics According to Keynes: a decrease in spending job layoffs fall in consumer demand firms decrease production more job layoffs further fall in consumer demand, and so forth © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 10 Equilibrium Income Fluctuates Income is not fixed at the economy's long-run potential income – it fluctuates. For Keynes there was a difference between equilibrium income and potential income. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 11 Equilibrium Income Fluctuates Equilibrium income – the level toward which the economy gravitates in the short run because of the cumulative cycles of declining or increasing production. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 12 Equilibrium Income Fluctuates Potential income – the level of income that the economy technically is capable of producing without generating accelerating inflation. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 13 Equilibrium Income Fluctuates Keynes felt that at certain times the economy needed help to reach its potential income. He believed that market forces would not work fast enough and would not be strong enough to get the economy out of a recession © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 14 Equilibrium Income Fluctuates Because short-run aggregate production decisions and expenditure decisions were interdependent, the downward spiral could start at any time. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 15 The Paradox of Thrift Incomes would fall as people lost their jobs causing both consumption and saving to fall as well. The economy would reach a new equilibrium which could be at an almost permanent recession. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 16 The Paradox of Thrift Paradox of thrift – an increase in savings can lead to a decrease in expenditures, decreasing output and causing a recession. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 17 The Aggregate Expenditures Model Using a few simplifying assumptions, economists can construct a model of the economy. The Aggregate Expenditures (AE) Model looks at how real income is determined in an economy. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 18 The Aggregate Expenditures Model The AE model assumes that the price level is fixed, and explores how an initial shift in expenditures changes equilibrium output. The AE model quantifies the effect of changes in aggregate expenditures on aggregate output. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 19 Aggregate Production Aggregate production –the total amount of goods and services produced in every industry in an economy. Production creates an equal amount of income. Thus, actual production and actual income are always equal. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 20 Aggregate Production Graphically, aggregate production in the AE model is represented by a 45° line through the origin At all points on this Aggregate Production Curve, income equals production. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 21 The Aggregate Production Curve Real production C A $4,000 Potential income 45º 0 Aggregate production (production = income) $4,000 © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. Real income 22 Aggregate Expenditures Aggregate expenditures – the total amount of spending on final goods and services in the economy: Consumption – spending by households. Investment – spending by business. Spending by government. Net foreign spending on Canadian goods – the difference between Canadian exports and imports. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 23 Autonomous and Induced Expenditures Autonomous expenditures are expenditures that are independent of income. Autonomous expenditures change because something other than income changes. Induced expenditures – expenditures that change as income changes. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 24 Autonomous and Induced Expenditures Autonomous expenditures is the level of expenditures that would exist at zero income. They remain constant at all levels of income. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 25 Autonomous and Induced Expenditures Induced expenditures are those that change as income changes. When income rises, induced expenditures rise by less than the change in income. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 26 Expenditures Function The relationship between expenditures and income can be expressed more concisely as an expenditures function. An expenditures function is a representation of the relationship between aggregate expenditures and income. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 27 The Expenditures Function The relationship between aggregate expenditures and income can be expressed mathematically: AE = AEo + mpcY AE = aggregate expenditures AEo = autonomous expenditures mpc = marginal propensity to consume Y = income © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 28 The Marginal Propensity to Consume Marginal propensity to consume (mpc) – the change in consumption that occurs with a change in income. The mpc is between 0 and 1 because individuals tend to save a portion of an increase in income. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 29 The Marginal Propensity to Consume The mpc is the fraction spent from an additional dollar of income. change in consumption C mpc change in income Y © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 30 The Marginal Propensity to Consume The marginal propensity to consume (mpc) is the ratio of a change in consumption (C) to a change in income ( Y). © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 31 Expenditures Function Autonomous expenditures is the sum of the autonomous components of expenditures: AE = C + I + G + X – IM © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 32 Graphing the Expenditures Function The graphical representation of the expenditures function is called the aggregate expenditures curve. The slope of the expenditures function tells us how much expenditures change with a particular change in income. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 33 Graphing the Expenditures Function Aggregate production AE = 1,000 + 0.8Y Real expenditures (AE) $12,200 10,000 AE = 2,000 8,000 Y = 2,500 6,000 5,000 4,000 2,000 1,000 0 AE 2,000 Y 2,500 AE mpc 0.8 Y slope 45º $5,000 $8,750 $11,250$14,000 © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. Real income 34 Shifts in the Expenditures Function The aggregate expenditure curve shifts when autonomous C, I, G, or (X – IM) change. Autonomous Consumption expenditures respond to changes in: interest rates household wealth expectations of future conditions © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 35 Shifts in the Expenditures Function Autonomous Investment is the most volatile component of GDP. It responds to changes in: interest rates capital goods prices consumer demand conditions expectations regarding future economic conditions © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 36 Shifts in the Expenditures Function Autonomous exports and imports depend on foreign and domestic incomes and relative prices. Autonomous Government expenditures may also change as policies change. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 37 Determining the Equilibrium Level of Aggregate Income At equilibrium, planned expenditures must equal production. Graphically, it is the income level at which AE equals AP. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 38 Solving for Equilibrium Graphically Aggregate production Real expenditures (AE) $14,000 Aggregate expenditures AE = 1,000 + 0.8Y 12,200 10,000 8,000 E 5,000 2,600 1,000 0 45° $2,000 AE0 = $1,000 $5,000 $10,000 © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. $14,000 Real income 39 Solving for Equilibrium Algebraically In equilibrium, Y = AE. Substituting in for aggregate expenditures, we have Y = AE0 + mpcY © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 40 Solving for Equilibrium Algebraically Now solve for equilibrium income: Y – mpcY = AE0 Y (1 – mpc) = AE0 Y = [ 1/ (1 – mpc) ] * AE0 © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 41 The Multiplier Equation The multiplier equation tells us that income equals the multiplier times autonomous expenditures. Y = Multiplier X Autonomous expenditures © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 42 The Multiplier Equation The multiplier process amplifies changes in autonomous expenditures. What forces are operating to ensure that the income level we determined is actually the equilibrium income level? © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 43 The Multiplier Process When aggregate production do not equal aggregate expenditures: Businesses change production levels, which changes income, which changes expenditures, which changes production, which changes income, which changes . . . etc. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 44 The Multiplier Process The process ends when aggregate production equals aggregate expenditures. Firms are selling all they produce, so they have no reason to change their production levels. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 45 The Multiplier Process Real expenditures (AE) C, I, G, (X – IM) A1 Aggregate production Aggregate A2 expenditures AE = 1,000 + 0.8Y $14,000 $13,200 10,000 C B1 6,000 B2 2,000 0 45° $2,000 $5,000 $10,000 © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. $14,000 Real income 46 The Circular Flow Model and the Multiplier Process The circular flow model provides the intuition behind the multiplier process. The flow of expenditures equals the flow of income. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 47 The Circular Flow Model and the Multiplier Process Expenditures are injections into the circular flow. The mpc measures the percentage of expenditures that get injected back into the economy each round of the circular flow. But there are withdrawals. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 48 The Circular Flow Model and the Multiplier Process Economists use the term the marginal propensity of save (mps) to represent the percentage of income flow that is withdrawn from the economy for each round of the circular flow. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 49 The Circular Flow Model and the Multiplier Process By definition: mpc + mps = 1 Alternatively expressed: mps = 1 - mpc multiplier = 1/mps © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 50 The Circular Flow Model and the Multiplier Process Aggregate income Households Firms Aggregate expenditures © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 51 The AE Model in Action The AE model illustrates how a change in autonomous expenditures changes the equilibrium level of income. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 52 The Multiplier Model in Action Autonomous expenditures are determined outside the model and are not affected by changes in income. When autonomous expenditures shift, the multiplier process is called into play. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 53 The Steps of the Multiplier Process The income adjustment process is directly related to the multiplier. Any initial shock (a change in autonomous AE) is multiplied in the adjustment process. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 54 The Steps of the Multiplier Process The multiplier process repeats and repeats until a new equilibrium level is finally reached. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 55 Shifts in the Aggregate Expenditure Curve C, I Aggregate production $4,200 E0 4,160 20 AE0 = 832 + .8Y AE1 = 812 + .8Y 832 812 0 $20 12.8 20 D AEA = $20 D AEA = $16 D AEA = $12.8 $16 4,100 4,060 E0 E1 $100 $4,060 E1 $4,160 Real income © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 100 56 First Five Steps of Four Multipliers mpc = 0.5 mpc = 0.75 100 100 75 56.25 50 42.19 31.64 25 12.5 6.25 Multiplier = 1/(1-0.5) = 2 Multiplier = 1/(1-0.75) = 4 © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 57 First Five Steps of Four Multipliers mpc = 0.8 mpc = 0.9 100 100 80 64 90 81 72.9 65.61 51.2 40.96 Multiplier = 1/(1-0.8) = 5 Multiplier = 1/(1-0.9) = 10 © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 58 Examples of the Effect of Shifts in Aggregate Expenditures There are many reasons for shifts in autonomous expenditures: Natural disasters. Changes in investment caused by technological developments. Shifts in government expenditures. Large changes in the exchange rate. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 59 The Effect of Shifts in Aggregate Expenditures An understanding of these shifts can be enhanced by tying them to the formula: AE = C + I + G + X - IM © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 60 Upward Shift of AE Real expenditures $4,210 Aggregate production AE1 30 AE0 Y 4,090 1,052.5 4 AE0 120 30 1,022.5 0 1 AE0 1 - 0.75 $120 $4,090 $4,210 © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. Real income 61 Downward Shift of AE Real expenditures $4,152 Aggregate production AE0 30 AE1 Y 4,062 1,412 3 AE0 90 30 1,382 0 1 AE0 1 - 0.66 $90 $4,062 $4,152 © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. Real income 62 Real World Examples Canada in 2000. Japan in the 1990s. The 1930s depression. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 63 Canada in 2000 Consumer confidence rose substantially causing autonomous consumption expenditures to increase more than economists had predicted. While economists had expected the economy to grow slowly, it boomed. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 64 Japan in the 1990s Aggregate income and production fell during the 1990s. A dramatic rise in the yen cut Japanese exports. Autonomous consumption decreased as consumers’ confidence fell Suppliers responded by laying off workers and cutting production. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 65 The 1930s Depression The 1929 stock market crash, which continued into 1930, threw the financial markets into chaos. This resulted in a downward shift of the AE curve. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 66 The 1930s Depression Frightened business people decreased investment and laid off workers. Frightened consumers decreased autonomous consumption and increased savings, thereby increasing withdrawals from the system. Governments cut spending to balance their budgets, as tax revenue declined. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 67 The 1930s Depression Business people responded by decreasing output, which decreased income, starting a downward cycle, thereby confirming the fears of the businesspeople. The process continued until the economy settled at a low-level equilibrium, far below the potential level of income. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 68 The 1930s Depression The process caused the paradox of thrift, whereby individuals attempting to save more, spent less, and caused income to decrease. They ended up saving not more, but less. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 69 AE Model Is Not a Complete Model The AE model determines income given autonomous expenditures. These autonomous expenditures, however, are determined by economic variables which are not in our simple model. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 70 AE Model Is Not a Complete Model The AE model uses aggregate expenditures to determine equilibrium income. It does not explain production. It assumes firms can supply the output demanded. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 71 Model of Aggregate Demand Shifts may be simultaneous shifts in supply and demand that do not necessarily reflect suppliers responding to changes in demand. Expansion of this line of thought has led to the real business cycle theory of the economy. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 72 Model of Aggregate Demand Real business cycle theory of the economy – changes in aggregate supply are the principle way for real income to change. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 73 Prices are Fixed The multiplier model assumes that the price level is fixed. The price level can change in response to changes in aggregate demand. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 74 Does Not Include Expectations People's forward-looking expectations make the adjustment process much more complicated. Most people, however, act upon their expectations of the future. Business people may not automatically cut back production and lay-off workers if they think a fall in sales is temporary. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 75 Forward-Looking Expectations Complicate the Adjustment Process Rational expectations model – captures the effect expectations have on individuals’ behaviour. Expectations can be self-fulfilling. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 76 Consumption Behaviour People may base their spending on lifetime income, not yearly income. Permanent income hypothesis -- the hypothesis that expenditures are determined by permanent or lifetime income. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 77 Expanded AE Model We can increase the power of our AE model by adding more detail. For example, adding taxes to the model Changes consumption expenditures. Introduces government budget deficits and surpluses. Changes the multiplier. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 78 Budget Surplus Function Budget Surplus T-G 0 Income © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 79 Expanded AE Model Adding income-induced imports Changes import spending. Changes net exports, and introduces trade surpluses and deficits. Changes the multiplier. © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 80 Expanded AE Model The marginal propensity to import (mpi) gives the increase in import spending from an additional $1 of disposable income. Disposable = after-tax Mpi lies between 0 and 1 © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 81 The Goods Market and the Aggregate Expenditures Model End of Chapter 8 © 2006 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. All rights reserved. 82