Center for Engineering Systems
Fundamentals (CESF):
The Beginnings
Dick Larson
ESD Faculty Lunch
Tuesday, September 20, 2005
Background
• Recommendation of Review Committee and of
ESD Faculty Members via ESD Strategic Plan
• May be a way to transform doughnut into a
muffin!
• Started on September 1
• This semester is one of designing the plan for
the CESF – with your help!
• Suggested process of small group of dedicated
faculty members create a White Paper as a Blue
Print!
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From the
ESD Strategic Plan…..
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Definition of Engineering Systems
• Engineering Systems are
– Technologically enabled Networks & Meta-systems which transform,
transport, exchange and regulate Mass, Energy and Information
– Large-scale
• large number of interconnections and components
– Socio-technical aspects
• social, political and economic aspects that influence them
– Nested complexity
• within technical system and social/political system
– Dynamic
• involving multiple time scales,uncertainty & lifecycle issues
– Likely to have emergent properties
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Examples are
– Automobile Production Systems, Aerospace enterprise systems, Air and
Ground Transportation Systems, Global Communication Systems, the
World Wide Web, the National electric power grid
These systems exist & have “messy complexity”
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Engineering Systems
(@ the interface of Engineering, Management & Social Sciences)
Social
Sciences
Management
ESD
Engineering
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ESD Strategic Thrusts:
Foundations
• Develop Fundamental Principles and Foundations Of
Engineering Systems Which Establish Engineering
Systems as a New Field Of Study
• Engineering Systems Principles Will Differ From
Engineering Science Principles
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Enterprise Level Perspective
Holistic Vs. Reductionist Approach
Macro Scale Vs. Micro Scale Design
Qualitative As Well As Quantitative Approaches, Context
Part of Engineering System Analysis
– For example, the principles for design of large scale
complex critical networks where technical and
social/organizational/political analyses are combined
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ESD Tactical Goals: Foundations
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Form a Research Center on Engineering Systems Foundations
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Form an overarching faculty group to address fundamentals of ES. Develop faculty
groups in
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System Architecture
Uncertainty mgmt
Lifecycle properties such as safety, sustainability, flexibility & including policy issues
Design & transformation of engineering enterprises including social and organizational
context
Use new knowledge gained to synthesize new ES
ESD should sponsor one or more RAs for innovative work on foundations
Center should interact in “ping pong” fashion with Application oriented Centers
Center should facilitate a network based communication of research among faculty,
staff, students
Center should establish an Editorial Board for developing the Book series
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Recruit several faculty to build up foundations in engineering enterprises &
lifecycle properties
•
Assume Leadership In Cooperative University Efforts Through
Systems University Council –
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Engineering
For example, organize periodic Conference on Foundations of Engineering Systems
Take leadership in professional societies such as INCOSE, INFORMS to advance
engineering system fundamentals
Develop a Book Series or interdisciplinary journals & courses in five years on
Fundamentals of Engineering Systems Utilizing Research Findings
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For example, look at specific ES systems from multiple perspectives
Export all courses to OCW
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Some Statements about CESF
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CESF's major focus will be research on the fundamentals and crosscutting issues in Engineering Systems.
•
CESF will focus on identifying and extracting fundamental concepts,
methodologies and formalisms that will eventually define the new
field called Engineering Systems.
•
We hope that this center will establish Engineering Systems as a
new and comprehensive approach to large scale engineering
problems, a transformative approach that extends beyond the usual
technocratic engineering concerns to consider broader societal
concerns as well. ESD faculty are quite diverse, representing
expertise in many social sciences as well as in virtually all major
branches of engineering.
•
This field looks at engineering design and analysis of large scale
systems broadly, incorporating important aspects of the social
sciences into more usual technical engineering considerations. The
CESF will also examine the culture of engineering design, for
instance in use of uncertainty; instead of the usual engineering
approach to minimize risk due to uncertainty we also need to
examine how to maximize opportunity created by uncertainty.
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Some ‘Products’
• An intellectual home to some ESD faculty
members and students
• Doctoral graduates
• Sponsoring an Engineering Systems book series
• Sponsoring a bi-annual international symposium
on Engineering Systems fundamentals
• Research papers
• Research projects
• Seminar speakers
• Impact, Impact, Impact
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Perhaps a New Emphasis
• Much of ESD has focused on
‘soft approaches to hard problems’
• Perhaps it is time at add
‘hard approaches to soft problems’!
– Health care (14% GDP)
– Education (10% GDP)
– Preparedness and response to ‘major events’
• If we can engineer dams, highways, airplanes, nuclear
reactors, computers, and factories, why can’t we also
help in the design of complex service systems?
– Services are over 75% of the USA economy,
manufacturing is now about 17%
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LINC
Learning International Networks Consortium
is part of CESF, representing design of
educational systems leveraging
technologies
DISTANCE EDUCATION AND E-LEARNING
THE THIRD ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM OF
LEARNING INTERNATIONAL NETWORKS CONSORTIUM
SPONSORED BY
THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
OCTOBER 27 & 28, 2005
Some of the featured speakers include:
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Sisavanh Boupha – Department of Science and Technology, Laos
In-Joo Chin – Inha University, Korea
Royal Colle – Cornell University, U.S.A.
Peter Froehler – UNCTAD, Switzerland
Matthew Herren & Maciej Sudra – Eduvision, Kenya
Philip Hui – Living Knowledge Communities, Hong Kong
Feiyu Kang – Tsinghua Univ. School of Continuing Education, China
Carlos Delgado Kloos – Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain
Naveed Malik – Virtual University of Pakistan, Pakistan
Cliff Missen – WiderNet Project, Univ. of Iowa, U.S.A.
Sandy Pentland – MIT Media Lab, U.S.A.
Laura Ruiz Perez – Monterrey Tec Virtual University, Mexico
Sean Rowland – Hibernia College, Ireland
Nabil Sabry – Universite Francaise d’Egypte, Egypt
Jaime Sanchez – University of Chile, Chile
Milad Sebaaly – Universal Knowledge Solutions, United Arab Emirates
Honorio Silva – Pfizer Inc., U.S.A.
Douglas Wilde – Stanford University, U.S.A.
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Really Need to Add the
Social Dimension
• ESD.032J Colossal Failures in Engineering
Case studies of known "colossal failures" from different
engineering disciplines. Includes the collapse of the
World Trade Center, the Columbia space shuttle
accident, and the meltdown at Chernobyl. Basic
engineering principles are stressed with descriptions of
how the project was supposed to work, what actually
went wrong, and what has been done to prevent such
failures from reoccurring.
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Really Need to Add the
Social Dimension
• If this were truly ESD, it would also include failures identified
long term by law of unintended consequences as applied to
the social system in which the engineering system was
imbedded.
Examples:
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Ford’s Edsel,
Motorola’s Iridium Project,
New Coke,
Apple Newton and Apple Lisa,
Mammoth dense urban housing projects (St. Louis Pruitt-Igoe,
Boston Columbia Point, Chicago's Cabrini-Green and Robert
Taylor Homes),
Forced bussing to achieve racial balance in cities (technical
part viewed an a linear programming transportation problem).
• Also, spectacular successes: mass production,
electrification, interstate highway system, Internet.
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Technocratic Engineering Failure
Tacoma Narrows Bridge
AKA Galloping Gertie
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What is the Role of ‘Applications’
(Contextual Problems) in CESF Research?
• Our feeling is that the best theory comes
from the most difficult (real) problems.
• So, most CESF research will be focused on
real problems, with an eye towards
generalizing the results to other contextual
domains.
• CESF will not do on-campus ‘consulting
projects’
• Nor is it a center for pure methodology
development, devoid of context
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Typical CESF Research:
Cross-cutting Application & Methodology
Method 1
Method 2
Application or Context
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Professional Recognition
If we are
successful, the
professional
communities of
both context and
method should
value our work.
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Examples of Possible Research
Areas
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Aggressive use of probability,
diversity and non-uniformity:
• Belicheck, “4th and one.”
• Decision and policy errors inherent in considering a group or
population as a single point (e.g., ‘mean’ or ‘stereotype’)
rather than a diverse constellation of individuals.
• Darwinian evolution of complex systems, with natural
selection, mutations and survival of the fittest.
• Non-equilibrium
• Over-booking
• Airline Boeing flower pedal example
• Revenue management (airlines, hotel, resorts, electricity,
telecom);
• Multi-lane highways too (also time of day predictability –
Golden Gate Bridge);
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System Architecture
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From Olivier de Weck: Role of System Architect
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The architect performs the most abstract, high level function in
product development
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The architect is the driving force of the conceptual phase
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The architect
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-Defines the boundaries and functions
-Creates the Concept
-Allocates functionality and defines interfaces and abstractions
-The architect is not a generalist, but a specialist in simplifying
complexity, resolving ambiguity and focusing creativity
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Fundamental Research on
System Architecture
• Borrowed from Software Engineers: An architecture is
a framework for the disciplined introduction of change.
This is also a pretty good definition of design. The
difference between the two is that design, as we
commonly use the word, applies to a single product,
while architecture applies to a family of products.
• Emerging research area: evolutionary, robust,
resilient, organically growing architectures. Linkages
to software Systems Architectures. These features
need to be considered for systems that are evolving
social systems, like most service systems.
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Some Possible Hot Topics
• Tipping points: Understanding them and
identifying them in systems
• Law of unintended consequences
• Richter scale on major events
Table 1. Richter ScaleΣ for Extent of Major Events
Numb er of Persons
Affected
Richter Le vel
Examples
1
0
10
1
100
2
1000
3
9/11 or dirty bomb *
10,000
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attack on nuclear power plant
100,000
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nuclear bomb
1,000,000
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multiple nuclear bombs; chemical or biological attack
10,000,000
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massive biological attack or avian flu pandemic
*
Figures apply only to persons immediately affected by dirty bomb; residual effects and environmental damage
would eventually affect mi llions
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08
07
06
05
tsaE
tseW
htroN
04
03
02
01
rtQ ht4
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rtQ dr3
r tQ dn2
rtQ ts1
0
The Next Pandemic? Laurie Garrett Since it first emerged in
1997, avian influenza has become deadlier and more
resilient. It has infected 109 people and killed 59 of them. If
the virus becomes capable of human-to-human transmission
and retains its extraordinary potency, humanity could face a
pandemic unlike any ever witnessed.
Avian Flu
Pandemic
Preparedness
Response
Richter 7
Preparing for the Next Pandemic Michael T. Osterholm If
an influenza pandemic struck today, borders would close, the
global economy would shut down, international vaccine
supplies and health-care systems would be overwhelmed,
and panic would reign. To limit the fallout, the industrialized
world must create a detailed response strategy involving the
public and private sectors.
The Human-Animal Link William B. Karesh and Robert A.
Cook Recent outbreaks of avian flu, SARS, the Ebola virus,
and mad cow disease wreaked havoc on global trade and
transport. They also all originated in animals. Humanity
today is acutely vulnerable to diseases that start off in other
species, yet our health care remains dangerously blinkered.
It is time for a new, global approach.
Processes Going Forward
• Bi-weekly meetings of new CESF affiliated faculty
members, leading to White Paper in December.
•
Center for Innovation in Product Development (CIPD) and its
assets will be merged with CESF in the upcoming months.
• How should the Center should operate relative to
CTPID? Faculty Committee examining this.
• Meetings with ESD doctoral students.
• Two RA’s dedicated to helping us to identify promising
research areas.
• Want at least two substantial research proposals
submitted this year.
• Want arrangements with book publisher established,
then editorial committee.
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We Welcome Your Participation!
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To Help Create the New CESF!
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