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Rockhurst University
Helzberg School of Management
EC 4001- [LCA 20928 ]
BUS 6201- [LCA 20927]
[SPRING, 2010]
Instructor:
Professor Michael Tansey
Classroom:
Conway 004
Meeting Time: W 6-8:40
Office:
CONWAY 313
Office hours: 10:45 a.m. -12:15 p.m. Tues., Thursday , 4-5:45 p.m. Wed. and by
appointment. School Meetings are frequently scheduled at the 3-5 p.m. time slot- please
call me to schedule office hours ahead of time if you need to see me during that time.
Also call to schedule times outside of normal office hours. I particularly like to attend
group study sessions, so organize one, call me ahead of time, and we’ll schedule a time to
meet.
Telephone:
Tansey [cell phone at 485-7550]
E-mail:
michael.tansey@rockhurst.edu
Fax:
816-501-4693
Course Website: http://cte.rockhurst.edu/tanseym. Under “courses” click on Ec
4200***
Text: J. Holton Wilson, Barry Keating. Business Forecasting. 6th edition
Course Description: This course will provide students with the practical business and market
research tools required for today’s data-driven decision needs. Understanding your products,
customers, competitors, employees and processes is essential to achieve competitive advantage.
The business intelligence tools include market research, data mining, forecasting, financial
modeling and industry research. This course will focus on the processes and analysis of data
using software, not the mathematics. The graduate-level course requires independent,
accelerated, or additional work appropriate for the graduate level.
Learning Objectives: The most important skill in a job with any organization is
communication. This course is designed to give you practice in using these communication
skills: (1) speaking, (2) writing, (3) making forecasts, and (4) using computers (EXCEL and the
WEB) to analyze data. After completing this course the student should be able to:
1. Make forecasts of important business and economic variables that can aid you in the analysis
of markets.
2. Use EXCEL and other statistical software programs efficiently (under the time pressure- in
this case under exam conditions)
3. Calculate the 95% confidence interval for forecasts based on entire populations as well as
population samples.
4. Be able to apply descriptive statistics to questions at the highest cognitive level of difficulty.
5. Be able to recount and perform forecasts using naïve forecasting, moving averages, ARIMA
models and regression analysis-both simple and multiple- and recognize how to choose
among the different methods to make the best forecasts.
6. Set up tests to choose which forecasting models are best.
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7. Find and process data in the best way possible for the purposes of forecasting.
Course Requirements: Think of the teacher as a coach. Think of yourself as being on a
team. In order to win you must learn what you don't know. Once you can tell the coach
what you don't know, he can help you learn the few tricks he knows. For the rest, you must
be resourceful, creative, and willing to share with others in class what you have learned. For
these reasons, grades are based on the following:
1)
1) Class quizzes, exercises and participation (500+ points total). Each class will
start with a quiz over the previous week’s material. From the total number of
quizzes, you will drop your two lowest scores. We will also have in-class,
unannounced questions and exercises in preparation for the Final exam. More than
500 points will be available through participation points, exercises, and quiz points
during the semester, so make sure you make some points from these questions and
quizzes in order to get an “A” The best preparation for these questions, exercises and
quizzes is to read the textbook chapters that are assigned and to practice the material
presented- particularly computer applications.
2)
HOMEWORK (100 points each: 200 points total): Two homework exercises
collecting data from the internet will be assigned (check cte.rockhurst.edu/tanseym at
BUSA. Please try to find data which would help you understand and explore a
question of interest to you.
3)
FINAL EXAM (300 points total): There is one final which can be prepared for by
doing well on the quizzes. The final exam is based on quizzes, the textbook, problem
solving examples presented in class, and handouts distributed from time to time in class.
The final isopen book. If we don’t have online exams BRING A
CALCULATOR!!!!!!!!! (Mine are all broken). The final is worth 300 points
4)
FINAL PAPER AND PRESENTATION (300 points total). Graduate students
will do a paper for the course, assigned by the professor, in place of the final
exam and present the results to the class on April 28.
Summary
Percentage
Class Participa- Homework
tion, Quizzes
500 points +
200 points maximum
Final Exam
300 points maximum
GRADES: The following grades will be matched to point totals for students: A=900
points+, B=800 points+, C=700 points+, D=600 points+ & F is below 600 points. "+" and
"-" are used for borderline cases. It is not possible to get an “A” or a “B” without
adequate class participation. These limits may be adjusted downward but will not be
adjusted upward. In other words, you may be able to make a better grade for a given
numerical score, but you will not make a worse grade.
GRADES: The following grades will be matched to point totals for students: A=900+,
B=800-899, C=700-799, & F is below 600. "+" and "-" are used for borderline cases. These
limits may be adjusted downward but will not be adjusted upward.
Policies
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
Turning In Assignments And Other Communications: The assignments must
be turned in through my email address. Please follow the following instructions in
sending me this information:
FOR THE PURPOSES OF DEVELOPING A PORTFOLIO TO WHICH YOU WILL
HAVE ACCESS AT THE END OF THE COURSE, PLEASE SUBMIT YOUR
ASSIGNMENTS AS FOLLOWS:
 Please name the subject line any e-mail with your included assignment or with any
communications on the assignments as "For10sLastnameASSNi". Where "Lastname"
should be replaced with your last name. Where "i" should be replaced with the number
of the assignment that is being turned in. My e-mails are grouped by subject and without
that name your email will not be found.
 Please also name the files you send as "For10sLastnameASSNi"
 If you are allowed to resubmit an assignment then label it as
"For10sLastnameASSNiresubmitj" where “i” is the assignment and “j” indicates the
number of resubmission. If you do not include “resubmit” at the end of your title and file
name it will simply out the previous assignment without being graded AND WILL
APPEAR TO BE LATE BECAUSE OF THE LATER DATE ON THE RESUBMITTED
FILE
 Always name BOTH the subject line of your e-mail AND the file with
the same name.
By following these instructions carefully I will be able to preserve the files you send me in a
portfolio which will help me to write a recommendation for you anytime in the future. It
will also allow you in the future to request copies from me of what you have done in the
class. Failure to follow the above instructions means an assignment will not be counted.
All assignments should be sent to me through the e-mail system . My E-mail
address (michael.tansey@rockhurst.edu) make sure the SUBJECT LINE of
the e-mail bears the title “For10slastnameWhateversubject” with whatever
subject after your “lastname”. Otherwise, I can’t be responsible for finding the
message.

You will need send your assignments in Microsoft Word , Microsoft Power Point,
and/or Microsoft Excel. Any other program is unacceptable and will result in
zero credit for the assignment.

Make-up quizzes and exams. Since the lowest two quiz scores are dropped, there will be no
need for makeup of quizzes. If a student misses more than two quizzes, the course should be
dropped. If the final is missed, an average percentage based on ALL of the quizzes will be
applied to the maximum possible point total on the final exam.

ON-Time Assignments. DUE BY THE BEGINNING OF CLASS: NO EXCEPTIONS
(HOMEWORK CAN BE TURNED IN EARLIER: up to 50% OFF IF LATER). Do not use
class time to finish assignments! The deadlines for some assignments may be extended
beyond what is shown in the syllabus, but such extensions will be announced before the
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deadline shown in this syllabus and can be done only with permission of the professor. Inclass questions and quizzes may not be made up, emphasizing the importance of regular
attendance.

Individual Effort. Final exam, assignments, exercises, questions and quizzes will not be
team efforts; they must be done alone.

Attendance: It is required that students attend classes regularly and be on time for the class.
However, if a student expects to miss class for personal reasons, the permission of the
instructor is required. The instructor can drop a student from the course or lower the grade
for lack of attendance. Students are responsible for keeping track of their attendance.

ADA Statement RU official policy: “Rockhurst University is committed to providing
reasonable accommodations for students with disabilities. Please contact Sandy Waddell,
Director, Access Office (Massman Hall Room 7, (816) 501-4689,
sandy.waddell@rockhurst.edu) to provide documentation and request accommodations. If
accommodations have already been approved by the Access Office, please communicate with
the instructor of this course regarding these arrangements by the second week of class in
order to coordinate receipt of services.”

Student Contact Information: RU official policy: “Student contact information must be
kept current in order to receive important notices from Rockhurst University. Your contact
information is online via your BannerWeb account. Please check your local address, local
phone number, and emergency contact information on BannerWeb and revise as needed. All
important University notices will be sent only to your RU email address. Please check your
RU email account in addition to any other email accounts you may have. Accounts are
activated at the Computer Services Help Desk (Conway 413).”

Academic Honesty Policy: Plagiarism and cheating will not be tolerated. The Rockhurst
University Catalog provides examples of academic dishonesty and outlines the procedures,
penalties, and due process accorded students involved in academic dishonesty. All infractions
will be immediately referred to the Dean's office. In your homework, make sure you
provide citations for all ideas and information that are not your own. Data from the
internet must include the complete URL from which the data came so that I can verify
the data. In addition the date and time at which you collected the data must be
submitted.
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SOME DATA SITES:
Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/
Bureau of Economic Analysis: http://www.bea.gov/
Federal Reserve Bank: http://federalreserve.gov/
Topic outline
DATE
Jan 20
SUBJECT
TEXT
Notation, Data retrieval. Different Chp. 1
forecasting models, & evaluating
forecasts.
Jan 27
Chp. 2
Descriptive Statistics, Trend,
Seasonal & Cyclical Data. Moving
Averages
Feb 3
Processing Data: How to do
assignment 1.
Feb 10
Simple Regression
Chp. 3
Regression
summary
Chp. 4
Feb 17
Multiple Regression
Chp. 5
Feb 24
Forecasting with Multiple
Regression.
Chp. 10
Mar 3
Variable Transformations:
logarithms, lags, and nonlinear
models
Logarithms,
CLASS EVENTS
DATA SETS:
Find data.
Assignment 1
Summary of
Transformations
Mar 10
SPRING BREAK
Mar 17
Model Building & hypothesis
testing
Mar 24
Surveys. How to do assignment 2 Handout #2
Mar 31
Product Life cycle, Learning
curves, S-Curves, Production
functions.
Handout #3
Ap 7
Confidence intervals
Handout #4
Ap 14
ARIMA models
Chp. 7
Ap 21
Advanced Topics
Handout #1
Assignment 2
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Ap 28
Presentations and Final Exam
review.
May 12 W FINAL EXAM: Wed. May 12, 68:00 p.m.
Final Exam
Note: everything in bold in the third column refers to the textbook
APPENDIX I EXCEL INSTRUCTIONS
1. Turn on the computer by pushing on the lower button at the center of the panel with
the crossed-zero marking. You may also need to push the button to turn on the monitor
(TV screen). The computer should respond with a screen with many different “moniker”
symbols on the left hand side.
2. Use the mouse at the right side of the computer to move the arrow on the screen onto
the little box above the EXCEL moniker. Then quickly push (“click”) the left hand side
button on the mouse.
3.
The computer responds by giving you a blank worksheet.
4.
Put your diskette into the slot (disk drive) on the computer. The top of the
diskette should face to the right when you put it in a vertical slot or should face upward if
you have a horizontal slot. Don't jam it in.
5. At the top left corner of your screen click "file".
Click “OPEN” in the new menu. In the “OPEN” menu that is presented, there is a little
“Look in” box. Hit the black arrow at the side of the box and click on the “A:\” drive.
The "A:\" refers to your diskette in the "a" drive.
For example: Suppose you have the file "macro.xls" on your diskette. Double
click on that file. The "macro" is the name of the file. The .xls is the indicator
that the file is a worksheet for Excel.
6. Check to make sure the green "num lock" light is on. If not, hit the Num lock button
until it is.
7. Click on the first cell in the worksheet to enter your first item of data. After entering
it, hit the "Enter" key.
8.
When you have entered the data, then save the data. This is done by:



Click the word, File, at the top left hand corner of your screen.
When the menu comes down, double click "save as".
In the new menu space, next to "Filename" enter "a:\Smith" if your name is Smith
and you wish to save on your diskette. From now on your file will be on your
diskette under the name: “Smith.xls” and that file includes all the data you have
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punched in . From now on you will be able to repeat step 5 using "Smith" in place of
"macro.xls" and will be able to ignore steps 6 and 7.
Note: The computer tacks on "xls" to indicate that it is an EXCEL file. You will be
able to access that file anytime in the future when Excel is on and
you have your diskette in the computer. Watch out!- if you forgot
to put "a:" when you save, your file will not be placed on your
diskette but will be lost somewhere in the computer where it is
likely to overwritten or erased by someone else. See your
professor if this happens.
9.
To print your result, go back to the upper left "File" column on your
screen and:
Click the word, "File".
10. From the resulting menu
Click "Print".
A Print menu comes up. Click "OK" at the bottom of that menu. Your results
should come out at the printer.
11. REGRESSION ANALYSIS. If you use regression analysis… At the top of the
screen;
Click "TOOLS"
Under the TOOLS menu
Click "DATA ANALYSIS"
NOTE: There may be no such words on the menu.
In that case you will have to load the data analysis package.
To do this
Click “ADD-INS”
Click the empty box next to “Analysis ToolPak” so that an “X”
appears in the empty box.
Click “OK” and wait a few seconds.
Now when you click the TOOLS word you will see the “DATA
ANALYSIS” package at the bottom of the menu. Now click it.
Under the DATA ANALYSIS menu, you’ll see two arrows, one pointing upward
and one point downward. Click just above the downward pointing arrow until
you see “Regression.”
Click “Regression”

It is important to place an “x” or check mark in the “Residuals”, “Standardized
Residuals”, and Line Fit Plots boxes about half way down the resulting menu.

Click the “OK” button at the top right of the Regression menu. The regression
will run and the results will appear on the screen after several hiccoughs.
12. ARRANGING GRAPHS. Suppose you have created graphs of your data and you
need to move them. You do this by clicking on the border of diagram until little
black boxes appear at the corners and middle of the borders of the diagrams.
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



At the bottom right of your screen are two little black arrows that
point horizontally in opposite directions. By clicking between the
two arrows you can move horizontally anywhere on your
spreadsheet to get a better view of the graphs your program has
drawn for you to show the relationship between the actual data and
what your model predicts.
At the far right of your screen are two little black arrows that point
vertically in opposite directions. By clicking between the two
arrows you can move vertically anywhere on your spreadsheet to
get a better view of the graphs your program has drawn for you to
show the relationship between the actual data and what your model
predicts.
On the upper left (or lower right) corner of each graph to increase
the size of the graph (or make it smaller if you push it toward the
lower right)
On the middle of the lower or upper border (find the precise little
black box to click on) of the graph to change the vertical position of
the graphs.
On the middle of the left-hand or right hand borders (find the
precise little black box to click on) of the graph to change the
horizontal position of the graphs.
15.
To print your result, go back to the upper left "File" column on your screen and:
Click the word, "File".
From the resulting menu
Click "Print".
A Print menu comes up.
Click "OK" at the bottom of that menu.
Your results should come out at the printer.
16.
Make sure you get a printout of your original data which is on sheet #1. If you
don’t have such a printout, click “Sheet1” at the bottom right of your spreadsheet.
Your data should appear instantly on the screen. Now repeat step #10. Your
regression cannot be evaluated without this printout.
17.
If worst comes to worst you can always turn off the computer.
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Additional Information
Course Information Table
Topical Outline
Macro vs. Micro
Modelling
IS/LM , Phillips
curve
AACSB and SOM
Foundations,
Perspectives and Themes
Fdn: Behavioral Science
P/T: Political, Social,
Fdn: Mathematics,
Behavioral Science
Fdn: Economics,
Mathematics
P/T: Global, Political,
Social, Legal,
Regulatory
Media articles
Excel analysis of
macroeconomic
variables
Fdn: Statistics &
Mathematics (algebra),
Economics
GDP, Growth
Fdn: Economics
P/T: technological issues
Inflation,
unemployment,
productivity,
Fdn: Economics
P/T: Global, Political,
Social, Legal,
Regulatory.
Technological issues.
Team based,
homework and
problem solving
Fdn: Behavioral Science,
Mathematics & Statistics
P/T: leadership,
technological issues
National,
International
Accounts
Fdn: Accounting,
Mathematics
Ethical issues
International,
Fdn: Economics
Skills and
Proficienceis
Practice of
Management
Policy case studies
Computer use,
mathematics
Graphical Analysis
Reading, written, and
oral communication
Computer
(Spreadsheet Excel),
research (library use)
Team development,
written
communication,
media reading (library
use)
written
communication
reading, oral
Policy case studies of
macroeconomic
tradeoffs
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Global
P/T: Global, leadership,
technological issues,
environmental issues,
Ethical issues
communication
(discussion)
Policy Paper
Fdn: Economics
P/T: Leadership,
technological issues,
environmental issues,
Demographic diversity,
Ethical issues
Oral & written
communication
(critique), library use.
Computer search
Policy case studies
Brief description of all teaching or learning activities used: (lecture, problem review, cases,
discussion, Socratic method, videos, research project, learning journals, article portfolios,
guest speakers, teaming, computer simulations, oral presentations, live case, etc.).

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



Students learn to integrate algebraic and graphical techniques to analyze macroeconomic
phenomena in the news.
Powerpoint slides are integrated into text and are used in lectures to present each major topic.
Students learn to access this information from the computer.
9 media assignments have the students going through the media to find illustration of key
economic concepts. The modelling and policy assignments both serve as the basis for a
“focus,” where students provide a succinct, impromptu oral summary of their media
examples, to illustrate the application of key economic and statistical principles.
At the beginning of each class, the Socratic Method is used in a facilitated discussion of what
is going on behind the headlines and how the textbook examples are applied. Students are
awarded points for their in-class responses.
Team building is developed on the homework problems.
Students learn to use simple regression in comparing the relationships among key economic
variables.
Coaching is used on a team-by-team basis by the professor to help students with their
homework, particularly the team based work.
Complete list of materials used: (case names, video names, self-awareness instruments,
software, simulations, etc.).
(case names: see above table for cases for each topic).
Computer program (either Excel ) for regression analysis
Powerpoint slides are shared with students.
Computer lab for students are needed.
Computer instructions for getting into EXCEL, getting access to PowerPoint slides from
lectures and getting access to written instructions, media, and NOTES for the class.
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