Geospatial science and technology
2004-2024: Seven forecasts
Keith C. Clarke
Professor and Chair
Department of Geography
UC Santa Barbara
kclarke@geog.ucsb.edu
2004 and 2024
 What
is the state of geospatial
computing today?
 What are the issues today?
 What will geospatial computing be
like in 2024?
 What issues will be of concern then?
 Seven forecasts along the way
Computing in 2004
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Average car hosts 50 computers (embedded
computing)
PC 3GHz barrier and GB/$ approaching 1.0
HPC approaching tens of Teraflops
GRID computing initiative at NSF
Low cost supercomputing e.g. Beowulf clusters
Mobile wireless based on 802.11x etc
Internet possibly approaching a billion nodes
Windows vs. Linux, but many more
Computing issues in 2004
Building the cyberinfrastructure
 The digital divide
 The “where” of computing
 User interfaces: The end of GUIs, WIMPs,
and the desktop
 Wireless internet
 Who owns software in the network era?
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Geographic information
technology in 2004
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Countering industry trends
GPS mature, GLONASS, Galileo, GPS II, indoor?
GPS and GIS tightly coupled e.g. IVNS
Mobile GIS
The data fire hose
Cellular phones and location technology E-911
New generation of space imaging
Interoperability and standards
Google search on “geographic information
system”=2.97M hits
What will the issues be in 2024?
Forecast #1: Ubiquitous GIS
Computing
will be
ubiquitous, distributed,
mobile and on-demand
Cyberinfrastructure
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aka Grid computing
NSF Vision for next era of computing
“ integrated suite of computational engines, mass
storage, networks, digital libraries and databases,
sensors, software and services” (NSF, 2003).
Can include human users and the user interface
NSF (2003) Revolutionizing Science and Engineering Through
Cyberinfrastructure: Report of the National Science Foundation BlueRibbon Advisory Panel on Cyberinfrastructure: Atkins report.
Cyberinfrastructure vision
•Services available on demand
•Independence of source
•“The computer is the network”
Geospatial elements of the
GRID: 1. GPS
Source: U. Minnesota IVS Lab
GPS: Accurate, but multipath, etc
Experiment
Green: Trees
Purple: Buildings
Image courtesy
of Kevin Knight
Yellow = dGPS much better
Red = dGPS better
Blue = Neutral or GPS better
Geospatial elements of the
GRID: 1. Portability
Forecast #2: Wearable GIS
 We
will wear our computers,
not sit in front of them
Wearable GIS
http://www.itmedia.co.jp/broadband/0309/18
UCSB Battuta project
Field Test Prototype:
YAH, Map view, text off, perspective on
Field Test Prototype:
YAH, Image view, text off, perspective on
Field testing: Track logs
Xybernaut Poma
Forecast #3: No more data
problems
 The
National Map will be complete
 The National Spatial Data
Infrastructure will support the
economy, government and
education
The USGS vision of
The National Map
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A database, providing “public domain core
geographic data about the United States and its
territories that other agencies can extend, enhance,
and reference as they concentrate on maintaining
other data that are unique to their needs.”
Needs:
 Up-to-date
 Real time access
 Support public safety and welfare
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The Problem: Current paper maps are on average
23 years old
USGS Vision
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Ambitious, challenging and worthwhile
Nationally consistent
Includes pointers to multiple scales and data types,
e.g. Imagery
Flexible enough to be subdivided by any pertinent
set of geographic units, e.g. Congressional districts,
health districts, watersheds, etc.
Sets goal of rapid turnaround of map revisions (7
days)
Benefits (NRC Report)
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“The nation has a vested interest in ensuring rapid
implementation of a nationally integrated spatial
database to meet national needs, including national
security, environmental protection and land
stewardship.”
Benefits:
 Natural resources
 Prevention of loss of life and property
 Reduction of duplication and waste
 Economic spin-offs to geospatial business community
 Shared work and value enhancement to partners
NAS National Map Vision
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Two inherent levels of the project:
(1) Nationally consistent digital map coverage
maintained at one or more spatial scales
 The blanket
 Already exists at coarser scale (The National Atlas)
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(2) Patchwork of local data with varied scale,
source, accuracy, spatial extent, ownership models,
resolution, thematic content, etc.
 The quilt
 Data are contributed by partners
The metaphor
One weave: uniform coverage
Independent patches, different
sizes, shapes: needs coordination
The metaphor (ctd)
National Map Viewer
DOQQ plus DLG streets
DRG plus DLG streets
NLCDB plus DLG streets
Seamless data download
Other components of the NSDI
(Portals, standards, services, data)
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Geospatial Onestop
Geography Network
EROS Data Center
FGDC: Standards
Alexandria Digital Library
State data centers e.g. Teale in CA
MapQuest
NAVTEQ, etc.
Counties, municipalities, universities, tribes, etc.
Forecast #4: Wired universe
 Data
will come from everywhere
and go to anywhere
High resolution imagery
Sensor networks: Webcams,
connected motes and MEMS
Spatial search: Google local
Location-based services: Location
knowledge and sensitivity
Courtesy: HCI Group Cornell Univ.
Forecast #5: Interfaces
 GUI
and WIMP will be dead,
long live perceptual and
multimodal computer interfaces
Gesture recognition and AR
Images/Movies courtesy of Mathias Kolsh, UCSB
Software demonstration: Battuta
Software Demonstration:
AR hand tracking
Forecast #6: Methods
 Spatial
analysis and visualization
will be accepted methodologies
across many disciplines and
applications
Spatialization
Computing issues in 2024
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Network monitors itself, who sees?
Spyware and security vs Personal privacy
Who pays for services?
Who are the digit police?
Competing solutions and liability
The limits of accuracy
Tractability envelope: New methods
Simulation is everywhere, for everything
Geospatial issues in 2024
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Who owns your lifeline? (Huisman and Forer, 1998;
students in Auckland)
Keith’s Daily Commute
Forecast #7 Geospatial privacy
 Your
geospatial data rights will
be under threat
The threat from commerce
 Minority Report
 “I dread the day when I am woken from a
sound sleep by a noisy, flashing advertisement
projected on my retina urging me to download a
new free Web-browser, one that I cannot turn
off without mentally focusing on a dark grey
‘Decline’ button hovering at the far range of my
peripheral vision. “(Clarke, 1999).
The threat from government
 FOIA vs.
“Mapping the Risks”
 Scott McNealy of Sun
Microsystems
"You have no privacy - get over it."
Come a long way, but a long way still to go!