PARADIGM SHIFTS AND
IMPACT ON INDUSTRY AND
TECHNOLOGY
Marcus O. Durham
Robert A. Durham
THEWAY Corp / U of Tulsa
Central & Southwest Srvcs, WTU
PARADIGMS
Introduction
A
set of rules that define boundaries of a system
 Provide
 In
description of operation within boundaries
4 words or less
A WAY OF THINKING
HISTORY
Advances in Technology - Tools
 Nomad
Independence
 Agrarian
Economy
 Industrial
Revolution
 Information
Explosion
Hunt-Herd-Gather, Basic Shelter
Farm, Store, Permanent Shelter
Systems, Controlled by Owner,
Information, Desirable Shelter
Technology if willing to risk and
learn, Choice of Shelter
HISTORY
Business Life Cycle
 Technology
Birth and Growth
 Management
Stability and Expansion by Acquisition
 Legal
Risk Avoidance and Demise
TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE
 Dream
or Concept
 Plan
 Growth

–
–
–
Maturity
Roll-off
Satiation
Demise
Beginning
Focus
Critical Mass
Bandwidth
Stale
Stagnant
Pull Plug
$
MATURITY
ROLL-OFF
GROWTH
PLAN
SATIATION
time
DEMISE
CONCEPT
Last Century - Cycle > Generation
Next Century - Cycle < 5 years
Figure 1 - Technology Cycle
EXTENDING LIFE CYCLE
Resurrection - Entity
 Effort
to Recapture Dream
 New Organization to Salvage Management
 Reduce Costs of People
 Employ Technology to Some Extent
 Focus on Core Business
EXTENDING LIFE CYCLE
Resurrection - People
 Concentrate
on Investors
 Flat Organizations
 Support Services - Computer and Phone
 Outsource
EXTENDING LIFE CYCLE
Network
Managers of Outside Technology
 Coordinate Suppliers, Marketers, Transporters
 Independent Entities
 Costs concentrated at Source
 Technologists at Each Corner
 Best in Information Society
MARKETER
TECHNOLOGY
MANAGER
SUPPLIER
TRANSPORTER
PRODUCT - MARKETER - CLIENT
Figure 2 - Network for Technologists
EXTENDING LIFE CYCLE
Wealth - Last 2 Decades
Old Thinking
No Opportunity
90% Purchases Did Not Exist
New Ways
Use Old Things
New Things
Use Unvaluable
Major Wealth Technology to Distribution
Directing Information
Moving Products
Supplying Transportation
THEORY OF TECHNOLOGY
Zero - Sum
Conservation of Energy
Closed System
Stable - No Growth
Desirable for Control
Limited Resources
Gain at Expense of Others
THEORY OF TECHNOLOGY
Find More
Continually Changing Source of Energy
Open System
Building = Growth
Unregulated
New Resources / Applications
New Wealth / Value
THEORY OF TECHNOLOGY
Society
Physical Resources Basis of Closed System
Society
Arch Type of Open System
Technology
The Outside Influence
Value to Previous Worthless
NOT ZERO SUM
THEORY OF ECONOMICS
Continuously Changing
 Adam
Smith
1776
Wealth of Nations
What’s Good for _____ is Good for Country
 John
Maynard Keynes 1930
General Theory of Employment Interest & Money
Satisfied Customer Quits, so Progressively Tax
 Paul
Samuelson
1950 - 1990
Economics
Utilization of Scarce Resources
THEORY OF ECONOMICS
More Changes
 John
Kenneth Galbraith
1958
Affluent Society
No Difference in Luxuries & Necessities
 Paul
Zane Pilzer
Unlimited Wealth
Quantity Becomes Quality
1990
THEORY OF ECONOMICS
Reality
 Consumer Quits Buying, So Tax - US Policy
or
 Consumer Never Satisfied
 60 Years Shows Latter
 US Tax Structure is Penalizing
THEORY OF ECONOMICS
Alchemists
 Search for Gold
 Laid Foundation for Investigative Sciences
 Pharmacists, Chemists, Metallurgists, Engineers
 Successful, but 500 Years Later
THEORY OF ALCHEMY
Technology Determinant
1. Technology Defines Wealth and Determines
Desirous Resources.
2. Advance of Technology Determined by Ability
to Process Information.
3. Technology Gap Is the Predictor of Growth.
THEORY OF ALCHEMY
Technology
W=P*Tn
W=
P=
T=
n=
Wealth (dollars)
Physical Resources
Technology
Power of Growth
(Positive Feedback)
THEORY OF ALCHEMY
Engineer
W = P * e +T t
W = Wealth (dollars)
P = Physical Resources
T = Technology
(Positive Feedback)
t = Time
TECHNOLOGY GROWTH
History
 Traditional
 Agrarian
 Industrial
 Information
 Paradigm
Shift
Slow
Physical Resource Control
Technology Control
Control Broken
Information to Anyone
“NATURE OF FIRMS”
Ron Coase
T=I





Transaction Cost = Inefficiency
Transaction Cost Lower From Computers
Major firms - Inefficient - Reorganize endlessly
Small Business - Low Cost
Minimal Size Entity Wins
Limiters
Garbage
Data
Info
+
Knowledge
S
Application
S
Desire
Budget
History
Figure 4 - Control System Model
Tech
S
THEORY OF INFORMATION
Technology
Proportional To Sum:
Acceleration of Information
Speed of Application
Changes from History
T = d2 /d t2 (Info) + d /d t (Application) + d (history)
THEORY OF INFORMATION
Feedback
Negative
- Control & Stability
Positive - Growth & Expansion
Filters Affect Outcome
– Width - Chops Noise, Time Response
– Height - Attenuation, Gain
– Rate of Change - Velocity or summation
Mag
FILTER
time
TECHNOLOGY GROWTH
Limiters
Application Not Implemented
 Incorrect History Interpretation
 Regulate To Protect

LIMITS ON TECHNOLOGY
Cost = Perceived Value
PV = FV - d(MC + BC + DC) * N
PV
FV
MC
BC
DC
N
Perceived Value
Functional Value
Manufacturing Cost
Business Cost
Distribution Cost
Number of Units
TECHNOLOGY GAP
Feedback Loop
TC = PV + TG
If FV > then PV > then TG <
TC
FV
PV
TG
Technology Cost
Quality, education, reliability
Perceived Value
Technology Gap
SHIFT OF COSTS
Where?
 Manufacturing
Insignificant Today
 Distribution is the Major Cost
 Technology for Distribution
– Retailer - Minimize Handlers, Computer Links, Control
– Package Express - New Airline, Central Sorting, Send Back
– Direct Market - Computer / Satellite, Express, JIT Customer
 Major
Wealth in Last 20 Years ?
Technological Distribution
PEOPLE PLACEMENT
Cope Vs Options
 Unskilled
 Skilled
Labor
“Blue Collar”
 Manager
 Technologists
Growing Gap
Motivation & Moral Responsible
New Job
New Enterprise
No Need Conventional
Transition to Technology Mgr
Outsource
Opportunity Vs Stable
PEOPLE PLACEMENT
Cyberspace
 Not
About Computers
 Release of Information to More People
 Technology not Domain of Managers
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Apr
'94
Nov
'94
Apr
'95
Oct
'95
Internet Connections
PEOPLE PLACEMENT
Society Good
 Technology
Replace Person
 More Money to Owner
 More to Spend on Non-Necessities
 New Enterprises from New Lifestyle
FUTURE FOR EDUCATION
Analysis of Technology

Reams of Data
 Little Knowledge
 Can’t Review & Validate
 Can’t Ascertain Problems


Technical Expert vs. Artificial Expert
Need Basic Principles Emphasis
2*2=?
FUTURE FOR EDUCATION
Refocus
Old
Technical Theory
Deal With Things
Info Age - ‘Vacuum’ Haven
New
Skills Change Fast
Deal With People
Need People Skills
Continuing Education
Seminar
Short Courses
Professional Society
FUTURE OF ORGANIZATIONS
Independent Interdependence
 Technology
 Manufacturing
 Marketing
 Distribution
 Support
Network
 Major Companies
Change & Creativity
Efficient Joint Ventures
Entrepreneurs, Niche Clientele
Technology Manager Products / Info
Education and Encouragement
?
FUTURE FOR TECHNOLOGISTS
Way to Go
 20 Years Ago
 Today
Concept to market, 5 years
Life Cycle of Technology < 5 Years
 Need Less Advanced Skills, More Application
 Multiple Separate Businesses
 One Flourishes, Others Incubate
 Develop Where You Want
With Information System
FUTURE FOR TECHNOLOGISTS
New Criteria
 Network
 Exchange Skills
 Marketer
 People Skills
 Change
Others Must Know
Niche
Unconventional
Mandatory
Uncomfortable, but Future is Bright
FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGISTS
Information Revolution
Major Corporation
Life Time Employment w/ Co.
Life Time Doing Same Thing
THAT’S GOOD NEWS
Deterioration of Empire
HA
HA HA
Opportunitie$
“Business Reality:
We are not a family - this is business.
The Company and the Employees have formed a partnership
which should be mutually beneficial.
Either party can terminate this partnership at any time
if it ceases to be beneficial - no hard feelings.
This is a job - it should be challenging and rewarding but it is still just a job.
Loyalty and high morale may no longer be part of the
relationship.
Long term security is no longer a reality.”
SUMMARY
Paradigm Shift
 Tech Growth = Info Acceleration + Application Speed
 Tech Limit
= Perceived Costs
 Tech Gap
= Advances - Application
 Opportunity = Tech Gap + Spin-Offs
SUMMARY
Organization
 Inertia Makes Unresponsive Traditional
 Pare to Flat
 Independent Manufacturers, Marketing, Transporters
Marketer
Technology
Manager
Supplier
Transporter
SUMMARY
Technologists
 Success = Change
 Communications & People Skills
 Basic Education on Fundamentals
 Continuing Education
SUMMARY
Matter of Control
Stability of Negative Feedback
OR
Explosive Growth of Positive Feedback
$
MATURITY
OPPORTUNITY
GROWTH
RECOGNITION
PLAN
time
CONCEPT
Questions?