ACRE UPDATE
Estimates as of
February 9, 2010
Ron Haugen/Dwight Aakre
Farm Management Specialists
Percent of FSA Farms and Base
Acres Enrolled in ACRE, 2009
ACRE Enrollment
MN
MT
ND
SD
Percent of Farms
6
4
10
18
Percent of Base Acres
10
10
15
26
Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma had 55.9% of total enrolled farms
2
Ranking of Base Acres Enrolled in
ACRE and Percent of Base, 2009
Crop Rank
MN %
MT %
ND %
SD %
1
Corn - 11
Wheat - 9
Wheat - 13
Corn - 26
2
Soybeans - 12
Barley - 11
Soybeans - 38
Wheat - 28
3
Wheat - 7
Corn - 32
Soybeans - 26
3
Projected 2009 ACRE Payments by
State by Crop as of February 9, 2010
Crop
MN
MT
ND
SD
payment per planted/considered planted acre
$34.71
$18.06
$0.00
$35.44
$45.99
$0.00
$16.83
$14.89
$12.30
$0.00
$2.38
$28.30
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$1.18
$0.00
$35.02
$6.54
n/a
$0.00
$0.00
n/a
$36.10
$0.00
$0.00
n/a
$52.81
$0.00
$16.32
57.84
$30.66
$24.26
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$28.84
$3.09
$19.14
$0.00
Wheat
Barley
Oats
Corn
Sorghum
Soybeans
Dry Peas
Lentils
Large Chickpeas
Small Chickpeas
Sunflower
Canola
Flaxseed
Mustard
Safflower
$0.00
Payment per planted acre is 83.3 percent of ACRE payment rate
Blank cells have missing yield data
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NASS Monthly Wheat Prices and
Historical Weights
2009/10
Month
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Average
Price
Jun
16.0%
12.0%
11.4%
13.1%
$5.74
Jul
18.5%
27.1%
21.8%
22.5%
$5.13
Aug
12.6%
18.7%
14.9%
15.4%
$4.83
Sep
6.9%
9.4%
7.8%
8.0%
$4.48
Oct
9.1%
4.5%
3.8%
5.8%
$4.47
Nov
4.8%
3.8%
3.2%
3.9%
$4.79
Dec
6.8%
5.9%
6.9%
6.5%
$4.81
Jan
8.2%
7.8%
7.4%
7.8%
$4.79
Feb
5.1%
3.9%
4.3%
4.4%
Mar
4.9%
3.1%
6.6%
4.9%
Apr
4.2%
2.0%
5.3%
3.8%
May
2.9%
1.8%
6.6%
3.8%
5
NASS Monthly Corn Prices and
Historical Weights
2009/10
Month
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Average
Price
Sep
6.9%
7.9%
4.5%
6.4%
$3.25
Oct
14.7%
13.7%
9.4%
12.6%
$3.61
Nov
14.6%
11.1%
11.9%
12.5%
$3.65
Dec
8.0%
8.7%
8.9%
8.5%
$3.59
Jan
15.3%
16.5%
12.8%
14.9%
$3.45
Feb
5.9%
7.3%
6.4%
6.5%
Mar
6.6%
7.5%
9.6%
7.9%
Apr
4.4%
6.2%
6.7%
5.8%
May
4.7%
4.6%
9.1%
6.1%
Jun
6.6%
6.1%
7.4%
6.7%
Jul
6.2%
6.4%
6.9%
6.5%
Aug
6.1%
4.0%
6.4%
5.5%
6
NASS Monthly Soybean Prices and
Historical Weights
2009/10
Month
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Average
Price
Sep
5.6%
10.4%
4.5%
6.8%
$9.75
Oct
19.9%
21.1%
9.4%
16.8%
$9.44
Nov
10.2%
10.7%
11.9%
10.9%
$9.53
Dec
8.8%
8.2%
8.9%
8.6%
$9.96
Jan
15.1%
17.3%
12.8%
15.1%
$9.49
Feb
6.8%
7.3%
6.4%
6.8%
Mar
6.2%
6.3%
9.6%
7.4%
Apr
5.1%
4.8%
6.7%
5.5%
May
5.3%
3.2%
9.1%
5.9%
Jun
6.2%
4.4%
7.4%
6.0%
Jul
5.5%
4.4%
6.9%
5.6%
Aug
5.3%
1.9%
6.4%
4.5%
7
State Acre Guarantee
90%
Times
Benchmark State Yield
(5-year Olympic average planted yield)
Times
ACRE Program Guarantee Price
(2-year national average market price)
Maximum change +/- 10% from previous year
8
Projected Price Guarantee for
2010 and Change from 2009
Estimated
2009
2009/10
2010
Price
Crop
2008/09
Forecast Guarantee Guarantee
Wheat
$6.78
$4.85
$5.82
$6.63
Barley
$3.82
$2.60
$3.21
$4.09
Oats
$3.15
$2.10
$2.63
$2.89
Corn
$4.06
$3.70
$3.88
$4.13
Sorghum
$3.20
$3.30
$3.25
$3.64
Soybeans
$9.97
$9.45
$9.71
$10.04
Dry Peas
$13.40
$8.75
$11.08
$13.25
Lentils
$33.80
$26.00
$29.90
$29.90
Large Chickpeas
$33.40
$30.40
$31.90
$31.70
Small Chickpeas
$29.10
$18.00
$23.55
$25.00
Sunflower
$21.80
$14.75
$18.28
$21.75
Canola
$18.70
$16.00
$17.35
$18.50
Flaxseed
$12.70
$7.75
$10.23
$12.85
Mustard
$43.80
$24.25
$34.03
$35.90
Safflower
$24.80
$20.00
$22.40
$21.70
2009/10 Forecast prices based on Jan 12 USDA reports
Percent
Change
-12.3%
-21.5%
-9.2%
-6.1%
-10.7%
-3.3%
-16.4%
0.0%
0.6%
-5.8%
-16.0%
-6.2%
-20.4%
-5.2%
3.2%
9
Projected Yield Guarantee for 2010
and Change from 2009, North Dakota
Crop
Wheat
Barley
Oats
Corn
Sorghum
Soybeans
Dry Peas
Lentils
Large Chickpeas
Small Chickpeas
Sunflower
Canola
Flaxseed
Mustard
Safflower
2009
State
Yield
35.3
55.0
56.0
117.0
Est 2010
State
Yield
35.3
55.3
56.3
119.7
Percent
Change
0.0%
0.5%
0.5%
2.3%
31.5
18.20
11.20
14.20
10.90
13.30
14.00
18.0
32.2
18.17
11.23
15.50
13.53
14.23
14.03
18.2
2.2%
-0.2%
0.3%
9.2%
24.1%
7.0%
0.2%
1.1%
10
2009/10 Forecast prices based on Jan 12 USDA reports
Estimated State Guarantee for 2010,
North Dakota
Crop
Wheat
Barley
Oats
Corn
Sorghum
Soybeans
Dry Peas
Lentils
Large Chickpeas
Small Chickpeas
Sunflower
Canola
Flaxseed
Mustard
Safflower
2009
State
Guarantee
$210.64
$202.21
$145.66
$434.36
$131.04
$284.92
$217.85
$299.88
$405.77
$247.21
$260.71
$234.05
$208.98
$168.12
$127.33
Est. 2010
State
Guarantee
$184.74
$159.76
$133.01
$417.99
Percent
Change
-12.3%
-21.0%
-8.7%
-3.8%
$284.29
$181.11
$302.20
$445.01
$286.77
$234.05
$219.08
$167.49
-0.2%
-16.9%
0.8%
9.7%
16.0%
-10.2%
-6.4%
-19.9%
2010
Minimum
Guarantee
$189.58
$181.99
$131.09
$390.92
$117.94
$256.43
$196.07
$269.89
$365.19
$222.49
$234.64
$210.65
$188.08
$151.31
$114.60
2010 ACRE/DCP Enrollment
• sign-up deadline is June 1, 2010
2009 ACRE Participants
• must report 2009 production by July 15, 2010
• must certify benchmark farm yield by July 15, 2010
• file FSA-658
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NDSU Extension Service
Farm Management Website
http://www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/aginfo/farmmgmt/farmmgmt.htm
Farm Service Agency ACRE Website
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/dcp
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Thank you,
Any Questions?
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