James “JJ” Jones
SE Area Ag Economist
Oklahoma State University
Dr. Kellie Raper
Professor
Want to thank!
Livestock Marketing Information Center
• Prices from San Angelo, TX & New Holland, PA
Southern Region Risk Management Education
Center
• Grant funds
Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service
This material is based upon work supported by USDA/CSREES under Award Number
2004-49200-03126
Meat goat production has exploded in the U.S.
• Estimated 2.5 million head in 2009
Research has begun.
• Mostly on production issues.
Marketing meat goat research presents a challenge.
First, not much price data collected.
•
• Some markets haven’t been reporting long.
Some markets haven’t been around long.
Second, consistency of the data collected.
• Some markets report $/cwt, some $/head.
•
• Not all weight groups represented all the time.
No standard grading system.
The three W’s of marketing.
• What producers need to know when developing a marketing plan.
Meat goat market seasonality
•
•
Look at the seasonality of the largest U.S. goat markets and compare them to Oklahoma’s largest goat markets.
Compare that seasonality to the ethnic holiday calendar and see if there is a holiday effect.
Meat goat market volatility.
• Look at the week to week volatility of the meat goat prices.
Meat goat market availability
•
Using a grant from the Southern Region RME, OSU is trying to determine where meat goats are being sold in Oklahoma.
The three W’s of marketing.
•
•
• What type of goats do you plan to sell?
~
Size, Age, Sex, Market or Replacement
When do you plan to sell you goats?
~
~
~
Seasonality of markets
Ethnic holiday calendar
Production calendar
Where to sell your goats?
~
~
~
Location of closest sale?
Location of best sale?
Selling directly off of the farm?
In the past many producers based marketing strategies on the ethnic holiday calendar below.
Holiday
Easter (Western or Eastern)
Type of Goat
30 lbs
2009 2010 2011
3/12-19 4/4 4/24
Start of Ramadan
Eid ul Fitr
Eid ul-Adha
Muharramn
Dassi
45 – 120 lbs
60 lbs Optimum
Same as Ramadan
60 – 100 lbs
Blemish free
60 – 100 lbs
Size depends on how many are being served.
No female goats
8/22
9/21
8/11
9/10
11/27 11/16
12/18
9/28 10/17
8/1
8/31
11/6
12/7 11/26
But as more price data is collected more detailed seasonal price information can be determined.
A seasonality chart shows the difference between the yearly average price and the monthly average price in a index form.
When the monthly index is above 100 that month’s price is generally higher than the average price.
If it is below 100 then it is generally lower.
We can use seasonality charts to determine trends in the markets.
120
110
100
90
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
20-40 Lbs Kid 40-60 Lbs Kid 60-80 Lbs Kid > 80 Kid
110
100
90
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
20-40 Lbs Kid 40-60 Lbs Kid 60-80 Lbs Kid
120
110
100
90
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
20-40 Lbs Kid 40-60 Lbs Kid 60-80 Lbs Kid > 80 Lbs Kid
120
San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA &
Perkins, OK
20-40 Lbs Goats
110
100
90
80
Easter
Holiday
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
San Angelo, Tx New Holland, PA Perkins, OK
120
San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA &
Perkins, OK
40-60 Lbs Goats
110
100
90
80
Muslim
Holidays
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
San Angelo, Tx New Holland, PA Perkins, OK
120
San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA &
Perkins, OK
60-80 Lbs Goats
110
100
90
80
Muslim
Holidays
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
San Angelo, Tx New Holland, PA Perkins, OK
Beside seasonal price patterns the market is subject to unpredictable week to week price volatility.
Markets can be affected by a myriad of happenings:
•
•
•
• Good/Bad market news
Good/Bad weather
Unusual large/small number of animals available for sale.
Certain buyers don’t show up or a new buyer does show up.
40-60 Lbs Goat
$160
$150
$140
$130
$120
$110
$100
$90
1 8
Weekly Average
15 22
Week
29
+1 Standard Deviation
36 43
-1 Standard Deviation
50
60-80Lbs Goat
$160
$150
$140
$130
$120
$110
$100
$90
1 8
Weekly Average
15 22
Week
29
+1 Standard Deviation
36 43
-1 Standard Deviation
50
Where to sell has been a problem for many producers.
Not every livestock market sells goats.
Not every goat sale is a viable market.
Through a grant from the Southern Region Risk
Management Education Center, OSU is conducting a series of surveys to determine meat goat markets in Oklahoma and surrounding states.
•
•
•
•
• Locations
Days of the week and times
Types of goats sold
Average number of buyers
Average number of goats sold
Town (County)
Perry (Noble)
Perkins (Payne)
Collinsville (Tulsa)
Stillwell (Adair)
El Reno (Canadian)
Okmulgee (Okmulgee)
Purcell (McClain)
Wister (LeFlore)
Maud (Pottawatomie)
Caddo (Bryan)
Gainesville, Texas
USDA Reported Sales
There are seasonal price patterns for meat goats.
These are different for the type of goat being sold and region of the country.
• Producers need to be aware of these differences.
Challenges will persist until some uniformity in price reporting comes about.
Prices seem to be more volatile in the spring than in the fall of the year.
There is limited knowledge about goat market availability.
•
Work needs to continue
Other marketing opportunities
•
Cooperatives, Producer organizations, etc.