James “JJ” Jones Dr. Kellie Raper SE Area Ag Economist Professor

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James “JJ” Jones

SE Area Ag Economist

Oklahoma State University

Dr. Kellie Raper

Professor

First things first

 Want to thank!

 Livestock Marketing Information Center

• Prices from San Angelo, TX & New Holland, PA

 Southern Region Risk Management Education

Center

• Grant funds

 Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service

This material is based upon work supported by USDA/CSREES under Award Number

2004-49200-03126

Where are we at

 Meat goat production has exploded in the U.S.

• Estimated 2.5 million head in 2009

 Research has begun.

• Mostly on production issues.

 Marketing meat goat research presents a challenge.

 First, not much price data collected.

• Some markets haven’t been reporting long.

Some markets haven’t been around long.

 Second, consistency of the data collected.

• Some markets report $/cwt, some $/head.

• Not all weight groups represented all the time.

No standard grading system.

Talking Points

 The three W’s of marketing.

• What producers need to know when developing a marketing plan.

 Meat goat market seasonality

Look at the seasonality of the largest U.S. goat markets and compare them to Oklahoma’s largest goat markets.

Compare that seasonality to the ethnic holiday calendar and see if there is a holiday effect.

 Meat goat market volatility.

• Look at the week to week volatility of the meat goat prices.

 Meat goat market availability

Using a grant from the Southern Region RME, OSU is trying to determine where meat goats are being sold in Oklahoma.

Meat Goat Marketing

 The three W’s of marketing.

• What type of goats do you plan to sell?

~

Size, Age, Sex, Market or Replacement

When do you plan to sell you goats?

~

~

~

Seasonality of markets

Ethnic holiday calendar

Production calendar

Where to sell your goats?

~

~

~

Location of closest sale?

Location of best sale?

Selling directly off of the farm?

Meat Goat Seasonality

In the past many producers based marketing strategies on the ethnic holiday calendar below.

Holiday

Easter (Western or Eastern)

Type of Goat

30 lbs

2009 2010 2011

3/12-19 4/4 4/24

Start of Ramadan

Eid ul Fitr

Eid ul-Adha

Muharramn

Dassi

45 – 120 lbs

60 lbs Optimum

Same as Ramadan

60 – 100 lbs

Blemish free

60 – 100 lbs

Size depends on how many are being served.

No female goats

8/22

9/21

8/11

9/10

11/27 11/16

12/18

9/28 10/17

8/1

8/31

11/6

12/7 11/26

 But as more price data is collected more detailed seasonal price information can be determined.

Meat Goat Market Seasonality

 A seasonality chart shows the difference between the yearly average price and the monthly average price in a index form.

 When the monthly index is above 100 that month’s price is generally higher than the average price.

 If it is below 100 then it is generally lower.

 We can use seasonality charts to determine trends in the markets.

San Angelo, Texas

120

110

100

90

80

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20-40 Lbs Kid 40-60 Lbs Kid 60-80 Lbs Kid > 80 Kid

New Holland, Pennsylvania

110

100

90

80

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20-40 Lbs Kid 40-60 Lbs Kid 60-80 Lbs Kid

Perkins, Oklahoma

120

110

100

90

80

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20-40 Lbs Kid 40-60 Lbs Kid 60-80 Lbs Kid > 80 Lbs Kid

120

San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA &

Perkins, OK

20-40 Lbs Goats

110

100

90

80

Easter

Holiday

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

San Angelo, Tx New Holland, PA Perkins, OK

120

San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA &

Perkins, OK

40-60 Lbs Goats

110

100

90

80

Muslim

Holidays

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

San Angelo, Tx New Holland, PA Perkins, OK

120

San Angelo, TX, New Holland, PA &

Perkins, OK

60-80 Lbs Goats

110

100

90

80

Muslim

Holidays

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

San Angelo, Tx New Holland, PA Perkins, OK

Market Volatility

 Beside seasonal price patterns the market is subject to unpredictable week to week price volatility.

 Markets can be affected by a myriad of happenings:

• Good/Bad market news

Good/Bad weather

Unusual large/small number of animals available for sale.

Certain buyers don’t show up or a new buyer does show up.

San Angelo Market Volatility

40-60 Lbs Goat

$160

$150

$140

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

1 8

Weekly Average

15 22

Week

29

+1 Standard Deviation

36 43

-1 Standard Deviation

50

San Angelo Market Volatility

60-80Lbs Goat

$160

$150

$140

$130

$120

$110

$100

$90

1 8

Weekly Average

15 22

Week

29

+1 Standard Deviation

36 43

-1 Standard Deviation

50

Market Availability

 Where to sell has been a problem for many producers.

 Not every livestock market sells goats.

 Not every goat sale is a viable market.

 Through a grant from the Southern Region Risk

Management Education Center, OSU is conducting a series of surveys to determine meat goat markets in Oklahoma and surrounding states.

• Locations

Days of the week and times

Types of goats sold

Average number of buyers

Average number of goats sold

Existing Goat Markets in Oklahoma

(Preliminary)

Town (County)

Perry (Noble)

Perkins (Payne)

Collinsville (Tulsa)

Stillwell (Adair)

El Reno (Canadian)

Okmulgee (Okmulgee)

Purcell (McClain)

Wister (LeFlore)

Maud (Pottawatomie)

Caddo (Bryan)

Gainesville, Texas

 USDA Reported Sales

Summary

 There are seasonal price patterns for meat goats.

 These are different for the type of goat being sold and region of the country.

• Producers need to be aware of these differences.

 Challenges will persist until some uniformity in price reporting comes about.

 Prices seem to be more volatile in the spring than in the fall of the year.

 There is limited knowledge about goat market availability.

Work needs to continue

 Other marketing opportunities

Cooperatives, Producer organizations, etc.

Questions

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