K-State LRP Workshops
James Mintert, G. Art Barnaby Jr., Kevin Dhuyvetter
Department of Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
KSU LRP Workshops
Purpose: Improve Cattle Producers’ Risk
Management Skills
Teach producers
• How LRP works
• How to forecast basis
• Provide experiential learning opportunity
to workshop participants involving use of
crop insurance, LRP, cash contracting, &
Put Options
LRP Workshop Partners
• RMA
• K-State Ag. Economics Department
• Kansas Farm Management Associations
• Kansas Livestock Association
Importance of Partners
• RMA
– Funding for Program Development & Delivery
• K-State Ag. Economics Department
– Develop & Deliver Program
• KLA & KS Farm Management Associations
– Target Audience Identification
– Program Promotion
Marketing The Program
• K-State Press Release
• Direct mail to Extension Clientele by County Extension
• Magazine Advertisement
– KLA Stockman, reaches about 8,000 producers
• KLA Weekly Newsletter
– Calendar of upcoming KLA events
• Direct mail to all producers in KLA database
• Direct mail to all Kansas Farm Management Association
members that have a cattle operation
• Radio promotion on K-State’s daily “Ag Today” radio program
Workshop Format
Workshops Divided Into Two Parts
Part One
Presentations
1. How LRP works
2. Comparing LRP with CME Put Options
3. Improved basis forecasting
Workshop Format
Workshops Divided Into Two Parts
Part Two
• Experiential Case Farm Workshop
– Cow-Calf, Grain Farm Operation
– Participants provided background information
– Provided four decision periods
– Make crop insurance decision
– Make crop and cattle marketing decisions
Part One: LRP-What Is It?
• Livestock Risk Protection Insurance
• LRP for feeder cattle available in KS
– Provides protection against a decline in CME Feeder
Cattle Price Index while you own cattle
– CME Feeder Cattle Price Index is a 7 day weighted
average of cash feeder cattle prices across the U.S.
• LRP for slaughter cattle is also available in KS
– Provides protection against a decline in the 5 Area
Weighted Average Price reported by USDA
How Does LRP Work?
• CME Feeder Cattle Index is used to cash settle
Feeder Cattle Futures
– Since both CME Feeder Cattle futures and LRP use the
CME Feeder Cattle Index to settle, purchase of LRP for
Feeder Cattle is similar (but not identical) to purchasing a
CME Feeder Cattle put option
• USDA’s 5 Area Weighted Average Price is used to
settle LRP for Fed Cattle
– Purchase of LRP for Fed Cattle is similar (but not identical)
to purchasing a CME Fed Cattle put option
How Does LRP Work?
To use LRP to protect against a price
decline,
– you would purchase LRP insurance for a
particular set of cattle (# of hd. & ending wt.)
– you must choose
– Coverage Price (this is similar to an option’s Strike Price)
– End Date (e.g., the date coverage ends)
– Price you pay is known as LRP premium
LRP Feeder Cattle Premium
Calculation Example
 To calculate actual LRP premium you must know
 Number of cattle ready for market (weighing
less than 9.0 cwt) on End Date
 Target Weight per head
 Ownership share in cattle
Premium Calculation Example
 Producer selects a coverage price which is a % of
the Expected End Price published by RMA
 Assume producer selects $100 per cwt. coverage
price (e.g., 92% of RMA’s expected ending price)
 For this coverage price, the rate is 1.449%
 The premium subsidy is 13 percent
Premium Calculation Example

100 head * 7 cwt = 700 cwt.

700 cwt. * coverage price ($100) = $70,000

$70,000 * insured share (1.00)
= $70,000 Insured Value
Premium Calculation Example

$70,000 * rate of .01449= $1,014 Total Premium

$1,014 * .13 (subsidy) = $132 subsidy

$1,014 (total premium) minus $132 subsidy
= producer premium of $882
= $1.26/cwt. premium
Calculating Indemnity

Indemnity is payable if actual ending price is
less than coverage price

Calculate indemnity by:
 Multiplying number of head by target weight (in
live cwt.)
 Subtract actual ending price from coverage
price
 Multiplying total weight by difference between
actual ending & coverage price
Indemnity Calculation Example
Our example
 An operation has 100 head of fed cattle
 Has a target weight of 7.00 cwt. per head
 Insured share is 100 percent
Indemnity Calculation Example
 Expected End Price for appropriate
insurance period is $109.25 per live cwt.
 Producer selects a coverage price of $100
per cwt. (e.g., 92% of Exp. End Price)
 Actual End Price is $80 per cwt. (e.g.,
CME Feeder Cattle Index = $80 on End
Date)
Indemnity Calculation Example
 Subtracting actual ending price of $80 from
the coverage price of $100 = $20/cwt.
 Recall that 100 head * 7.00 cwt = 700 cwt.
 Multiplying 700 cwt. by $20/cwt = $14,000
 Multiplying $14,000 by insured share of
1.00 = indemnity payment of $14,000
Indemnity Calculation Example
 What happens if actual ending price = $105?
 Subtracting actual ending price of $105 from
the coverage price of $100 = neg. $5/cwt.
 Therefore, no indemnity payment is made to
producer
 This is analogous to a put option that expires
worthless
LRP Coverage Prices & Levels
• Price guarantees change daily
• Premiums change daily
• Coverage available ranges from 70% to
about 95% of Expected Ending Price, but
maximum guarantee on most days is less
than 95%
Premium
 Producer may obtain premium quotes via RMA’s
Premium Calculator available on USDA-RMA’s
web site
 Premium must be paid on day LRP insurance is
purchased for coverage to be provided
 Rates available at
http://www.rma.usda.gov/tools
Under livestock reports
Or use link on AgManager
www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing
LRP Coverage Availability
• Available from about 5 p.m. until 9 a.m. Central
Time during the week
• Not Available on Federal holidays
• Not Available if RMA web site down
Comparing LRP with CME Put Option
Premiums for Similar Coverage
• LRP & Put do NOT expire on the same date, most
of the time
• LRP & Put do not have the same expected price or
strike value
• LRP is an European Option, no right to exercise
• So one can NOT compare cash cost because they
do not have the same coverage & expiration dates
Comparing LRP with CME Put Option
Premiums for Similar Coverage
• LRP priced using option pricing model
• Calculate implied volility from current CME
option premiums
• Calculate current “fair market” option premium
for LRP based on LRP expiration date,
European option, LRP expected market price,
and LRP strike
Comparing LRP with CME Put Option
Premiums for Similar Coverage
1 Coverage Date
03/17/05
03/16/05
03/15/05
03/14/05
03/11/05
Section IV. Value of LRP based on Today's Market and LRP Expiration Date
5
17 LRP Estimated Market Price
$103.588 $104.034 $103.994 $103.662 $103.690
6
18 KSU Est. September Volatility
16.61
17.08
16.96
16.74
16.68
19 KSU Estimated "Put" Premium to Provide
LRP Premium = $2.58
Similar LRP Coverage based on Today's
Market7
$2.456
$2.440
$2.435
$2.474
$2.477
20 KSU Est. "Put" Premium +Commission
$2.56
$2.54
$2.54
$2.57
$2.58
Section V. Comparison of Put Vs. Current Market Value of LRP
21 LRP - Est. Market Value of LRP Put
$0.03
$0.03
$0.04
22 % Current Market Value LRP Discount
1.13%
1.25%
1.52%
$0.05
1.84%
($0.02)
(0.81%)
Improving Basis Forecasting
What is Basis?
Mathematically:
Basis = Cash price – Futures Price
Generally, basis is more predictable than cash or
futures prices due to:

Convergence

Futures and cash prices move together (same
fundamental conditions generally affect both markets)

Year-to-year stability
Basis patterns will vary by cattle weight
Seasonal Price Index for Steers, Dodge City, KS -- 1995-2004
104%
103%
102%
Seasonal Index
101%
100%
99%
98%
97%
96%
5-6 cwt
95%
6-7 cwt
7-8 cwt
94%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
And There’s A Difference Between
Cash Index (LRP) Basis and Futures Basis
Cash Index Basis less Nearby Futures Basis (700-800 lb steers)
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
-4.00
-6.00
-8.00
-10.00
-12.00
0
/5 1
/2
0
1/ 01
5/
20
4/ 02
5/
20
7/ 02
5/
2
10 002
/5
/2
0
1/ 02
5/
20
4/ 03
5/
20
7/ 03
5/
2
10 003
/5
/2
0
1/ 03
5/
20
4/ 04
5/
20
7/ 04
5/
20
04
10
/5
/2
00
4
01
10
5/
20
7/
5/
20
4/
5/
20
01
-14.00
1/
$/cwt
-2.00
How do we use basis?
Basis = Cash Price – Futures Price
Basis + Futures Price = Cash Price
Exp. Cash Price = Exp. Basis + Futures Price
Risk managers need basis forecasts
LRP users replace futures price with LRP
coverage price minus premium
Basis as it relates to put options
Put option strike (97.9%)
$96.00
+ Expected basis
3.50
− Premium
2.13
= Expected minimum sale price
$97.37
Based on May FC futures of $98.02 on 2/11/05
and expected selling date of mid May
Basis as it relates to LRP
LRP coverage level (93.9%)
$92.29
+ Expected basis
4.00
− Premium
1.21
= Expected minimum sale price
$95.08
Based on LRP quotes on 2/11/05 and ending
date of 5/13/05 (expected ending value =
$98.31, 13 week endorsement)
How should you forecast basis?
• Average over several years (years
may vary depending on commodity)

Average = expected value
• Measure variability (risk)

Historical range (highs and lows),
standard deviation

Variability measure indication of risk
Should forecasts consider current basis?
Feeder
Cattle
Basis
Feeder
Cattle2001
2001Basis
Basisand
and3-year
3-yearHistorical
Historical Average
Average Basis
2.00
2.00
3-yr
3-yrAvg
Avg Historical
Historical Basis
Basis
1.50
1.50
2001
2001
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
$/cwt.
$/cwt.
0.00
0.00
-0.50
-0.50
-1.00
-1.00
-1.50
-1.50
-2.00
-2.00
-2.50
-2.50
-3.00
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
8
7
8
Week
Week
9
9
10
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
14
14
Should forecast consider current basis?
Feeder Cattle 2001 Basis and 3-year Historical Average Basis
2.00
3-yr Avg Historical Basis
1.50
2001
1.00
$/cwt.
0.50
0.00
-0.50
?
4-wk ahead
forecast
-1.00
?
8-wk ahead forecast
-1.50
How much should we “adjust” forecast by
and how will this adjustment vary by time?
-2.00
-2.50
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Week
9
10
11
12
13
14
Including Current Information Improves Forecasts
But Value Declines As Forecast Horizon Increases
Optimal Current Information vs Forecast Time Horizon
50%
45%
Current information
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
1998-2002
10%
1993-2002
5%
0%
4
8
12
16
Forecasting time horizon, weeks
20
24
Basing Forecasts Solely on Current
Information Reduces Accuracy
Mean Absolute Error of Alternative Basis Forecasts, 1993-2002
Mean absolute error (MAE), $/cwt
1.90
MAEopt
1.80
MAEno
MAEfull
1.70
1.60
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
4
8
12
16
20
Forecasting time horizon, weeks
24
Basis Conclusions
• Basis is generally more predictable than prices.
• Very important when thinking about basis to
make sure relevant/correct prices are used.
• Ignoring missing data in a multiple year average
may lead to poor forecasts
• Basis is often forecasted using historical basis
information, but incorporating “current”
information can improve forecast accuracy.
K-State Cattle Risk Management Workshop
The John & Mary Sample Farm
Grain Sorghum and Cow/Calf Problem
by
Dr. G. Art Barnaby, Jr.
Dr. Jim Mintert
Dr. Kevin Dhuyvetter
Aaron Gasper
Agricultural Economics
Kansas State University
Check out our WEB page at
http://www.AgManager.info
The purpose of this workshop is to familiarize you with the principles and practices of Risk
Assessed Marketing (RAM). You will be asked to plan and implement a marketing
program for the Cow/Calf Herd of a case farm, as well as the Grain Sorghum Enterprise.
At the end of the workshop, you will have a better understanding of how farmers can
employ different marketing strategies (including LRP for livestock) and, when combined
with crop insurance, how these risk management tools can help producers to minimize
financial risk and enhance farm income.
Presented winter 2004 - 2005
Summary
You are John or Mary Sample. With your spouse, you manage a cow/calf herd and a crop farm
with grain sorghum and other crop enterprises.
You have 440 cows, which will yield 200 steer calves that you will be able to sell at weaning, or
background though the winter. Similar alternatives are available for the heifer calves but not
included in the case study. Presently your crop acreage is split between grain sorghum and
other crops. You intend to plant your 625 acres feedgrain base to milo with the balance of the
acres planted to wheat and soybeans. There are several bank notes outstanding for land and
machinery. You have budgeted out your milo, cow/calf, and other operations and you expect to
have sufficient income to cover production costs, scheduled principal and interest payments,
and living expenses.
Your financial situation, however, is sensitive to changes in crop yields and market prices. So
you are willing to consider some alternative pricing strategies to manage your price risk
exposure. You are considering the purchase of both LRP, and crop insurance. You may
purchase MPCI, CRC or Catastrophic crop insurance for your milo crop.
Your assignment is to manage the production and marketing risk for the milo to be sold in
October 2006. You will also have to manage marketing risk for steer calves to be sold either at
weaning on October 25, 2006 or as feeders on February 21, 2007. Beginning in May 2006, you
will have 2 opportunities to forward price any portion of your expected crop by forward cash
contracts, or by purchasing put options (a form of "price insurance"). You will also be given
one forward pricing opportunity for calves to be sold at weaning, and two forward pricing
opportunities for the feeders if you chose to background the calves over the winter. The dates
on which you may price the crop are May 17 and July 26. The dates on which you may price the
calves or feeders are on June 28 and October 25. You may not sell more than 50,000 bushels of
milo before harvest using any combination of the various marketing alternatives offered. Also,
you may not forward price more than 200 calves before the selling dates.
If you change your mind, you may buy back and/or sell back any put options you purchased -in effect "cancel" your "price" insurance. However, you may not cancel forward cash contracts
or LRP contracts. All milo sales will be completed before or by October 25, 2006 (harvest). All
livestock sales will be completed on or by October 25, 2006 or February 21 2007, depending on
whether or not backgrounding is chosen as an option. Also at harvest, all forward contracts
will be met (even if you have to buy grain on the cash market) and any put options will be
offset. Also, all cash forward contracting of livestock will be settled at the time of cash sales.
There will be no post-harvest storage or ownership and you will not be able to take any actions
to “hedge” the counter-cyclical payment (CCP). All participants will receive the same direct
payment and the same CCP (if a CCP is paid during the 2006/07 marketing year).
You will not know what your "actual" yield will be until harvest. At that time you will "draw" one
of four possible yields. The probability of suffering a crop loss will be provided at the time crop
insurance is to be purchased (March 15, 2006).
If you background any or all of your steer calves, milo for feed rations will be taken off your
total cash milo crop and fed in the backgrounding enterprise.
Setting Up The Case Farm
• Participants are provided
Enterprise budgets for
– Grain sorghum
– Cow-calf
– Steer backgrounding
Setting Up The Case Farm
• Participants must make crop insurance
coverage selection at outset
Dryland Grain Sorghum: April 15
Number of Acres
625.0
Please Circle only ONE Dollar Amount ! (Rounded to $100)
MPCI
$2.35
P Election
CRC
$2.50
CBOT
1. 80% Coverage
$8,700
$10,700
2. 75% Coverage
$5,700
$7,000
3. 70% Coverage
$3,800
$4,700
$100
NONE
Subsidy
4.
Catastrophic
WORKSHOP YIELD "DRAWS"
PROBABILITY OF YIELD AND CAUSE OF LOSSES (IF ANY)
Total
Yield
Prob
Cause
Production
16
20% Other Causes
10,000
40
25% Other Causes
25,000
80
30% No Loss
50,000
96
25% No Loss
60,000
Assume a Market Price of
$2.00
SUMMARY,
Dryland Grain Sorghum: April 15
(Payments Rounded to $ 1,000)
Cov
$2.35
$3.00
Total Bushels
Total
Premium
Prem.
per Ac.
<------------Yield-------------->
16
40
80
$71,000
$35,000
$0
MPCI
40,000
31,333
80%
$8,700
$13.92
37,500
29,375
75%
5,700
9.12
$65,000 ______
$29,000
______
$0
35,000
27,417
70%
3,800
6.08
$59,000
$24,000
$0
15,000
11,750
CAT
100
0.16
$21,000
______
$0
______
$0
CRC
42,553
40,000
80%
10,700
17.12
$80,000
$50,000
$0
39,894
37,500
75%
7,000
11.20
$74,000
______
$44,000
______
$0
37,234
35,000
70%
4,700
7.52
$68,000
$38,000
$0
Assume a Market Price of
SUMMARY,
$3.00
Dryland Grain Sorghum: April 15
(Payments Rounded to $ 1,000)
Cov
$2.35
$3.00
Total Bushels
Total
Premium
Prem.
per Ac.
<------------Yield-------------->
16
40
80
$71,000
$35,000
$0
MPCI
40,000
31,333
80%
$8,700
$13.92
37,500
29,375
75%
5,700
9.12
$65,000
$29,000
______ ______
$0
35,000
27,417
70%
3,800
6.08
$59,000
$24,000
$0
15,000
11,750
CAT
100
0.16
$21,000
______
$0
______
$0
CRC
42,553
40,000
80%
10,700
17.12
$90,000
$45,000
$0
39,894
37,500
75%
7,000
11.20
$83,000
______
$38,000
______
$0
37,234
35,000
70%
4,700
7.52
$75,000
$30,000
$0
Case Problem, 2006 Weekly December Corn Futures (High, Low, Close)
$2.70
May 17th Scenario
$2.65
$2.60
$2.55
$2.50
May 17
$2.35
$2.45
$2.40
$2.35
$2.30
$2.25
$2.20
1/4/06
2/1/06
3/1/06
3/29/06
4/26/06
5/24/06
6/21/06
7/19/06
8/16/06
9/13/06
10/11/06
11/8/06
Pricing Opportunities for Milo on 05/17/06 To Be Delivered at Harvest
Minimum
CBOT
Expected
Put
Expected
Put Option + Harvest - Option
= Net
Strike Price
Basis
Premium
Price
+ $-.40
- $0.13
= $1.77
$2.30
SHOULD I SELL SOME MILO TODAY? (Y/N)YES / NOWHAT QTY?
HOW?
WHY?
CBOT Dec Corn Futures =
$2.35
CBOT
CBOT
Dec Option
CALL
Put
Dec Option
CALL
Put
Strike Price Premium
Premium
Strike Price
Premium
Premium
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ($/Bu.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.80
0.03
0.47
2.20
0.23
0.08
2.50
0.09
0.24
2.10
0.30
0.05
2.40
0.13
0.18
2.30
0.18
0.13
Foward Contract Bid = $1.95 for Oct 25 Delivery (Avg Basis -$0.40/bu.)
Pricing Opportunities for Milo on 05/17/06 To Be Delivered at Harvest
Minimum
CBOT
Expected
Put
Expected
Put Option + Harvest - Option
= Net
Strike Price
Basis
Premium
Price
+ $-.40
- $0.13
= $1.77
$2.30
SHOULD I SELL SOME MILO TODAY? (Y/N)YES / NOWHAT QTY? 15,000
10,000 BU. FORWARD CONTRACT, and 5,000 BU. With a PUT
HOW?
WHY? I UNDERSTAND FORWARD CONTRACT & WANTED TO COMPARE WITH PUT
CBOT Dec Corn Futures =
$2.35
CBOT
CBOT
Dec Option
CALL
Put
Dec Option
CALL
Put
Strike Price Premium
Premium
Strike Price
Premium
Premium
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ($/Bu.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.80
0.03
0.47
2.20
0.23
0.08
2.50
0.09
0.24
2.10
0.30
0.05
2.40
0.13
0.18
2.30
0.18
0.13
Foward Contract Bid = $1.95 for Oct 25 Delivery (Avg Basis -$0.40/bu.)
MARKETING LEDGER
Name_________________________________
Transaction
May 17
PUTS
$2.30
Strike Price
_______________
$0.13
Premium
_______________
5,000
Quantity Bought
_______________
Quantity Sold
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Gain (Loss)/Bu
_______________
Total Gain (Loss)
_______________
CALLS
Strike Price
_______________
Premium
_______________
Quantity Bought
_______________
Quantity Sold
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Gain (Loss)/Bu
_______________
Total Gain (Loss)
_______________
Forward Cash Contract
$1.95
Price Bid
_______________
10,000
Quantity
_______________
Total Revenue
_______________
$19,500
Bushels Produced
_______________
- Bu. Fed to Steers
_______________
- Bu. Frwrd Contract _______________
Quantity Delivered
_______________
Jul 26
Harvest
Total
Pymt
Recvd
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
_______________
Harvest Sales
Price @ Harvest
_______________
Quantity Delivered
_______________
Hrvst Sales Revenue _______________ _______________
Total Revenue
_______________
----------------------------------------------------------------------Average Price Received = Total Payments Received / Total bushels Produced
$_________ (Bushel) = $ __________________/ __________________ Bushels-Bushels Fed
Case Problem, 2006 Weekly CME October Feeder Cattle
Futures (High, Low, Close)
$116.00
June 28th Scenario
For Calf Sales in
October 2006
$114.00
$112.00
$110.00
$108.00
June 28
$112.00
$106.00
$104.00
$102.00
$100.00
$98.00
1/4/06
2/1/06
3/1/06
3/29/06
4/26/06
5/24/06
6/21/06
7/19/06
8/16/06
9/13/06
10/11/06
June 28, 2006
MARKET INDICATORS: Feeder cattle prices have shot up over the previous few weeks to $112.
Continued strong retail demand for beef has been credited for pushing live cattle cash prices higher.
Some market analysts are suggesting availability of lower cost poultry and pork will limit further
gains in the fed cattle market. Seasonal increases in cattle supplies this summer could begin to
weigh on prices.
CME Oct Feeder Cattle Futures
=
$112.00
LRP Oct 25 Expected Ending Value
=
$123.18 Adjusted 110% for Steers less than 6 cwt
Average 5.25 cwt steer LRP basis in late October is -$1/cwt
CME Oct Feeder Cattle Options
< 600 Steer 17 WK LRP Expires on Oct 25
Oct Option
CALL
Put
LRP
LRP
Subsidized Subsidized
Strike Price Premium
Premium
Coverage
Coverage
LRP
LRP
($/cwt.) (Cont) ($/cwt.) (Cont)
Level
Price Rates/CWT Rates/Head
116.00
3.47 1,735
7.44 3,722
93%
$ 114.56
$1.59 $
8.34
112.00
4.07 2,035
4.07 2,035
91%
$ 112.09
$1.17 $
6.13
110.00
5.42 2,711
3.44 1,718
89%
$ 109.63
$0.85 $
4.44
108.00
6.59 3,296
2.62 1,309
87%
$ 107.17
$0.61 $
3.18
106.00
8.20 4,099
2.24 1,119
104.00
9.61 4,803
1.66
829
102.00 11.38 5,692
1.45
725
Forward Contract Bid = $118.00 cwt/ $619.50 hd for Steers Oct 25 Delivery
Average 5.25 cwt steer CME basis in late October is + $8/cwt
Pricing Opportunities for Steer Calves on 06/28/06 To Be Delivered as 5.25 cwt steers
on October 25, 2006
YES
/ NOWHAT QTY? 110 head
SHOULD I SELL SOME Steers calves TODAY? (Y/N)
_________
Forward Contract 10 weaning steer calves, 10 LRP, & 1 Oct Put
HOW?
COMPARE LRP with a PUT
WHY?
CME Oct Feeder Cattle Futures
=
$112.00
LRP Oct 25 Expected Ending Value
=
$123.18 Adjusted 110% for Steers less than 6 cwt
Average 5.25 cwt steer LRP basis in late October is -$1/cwt
CME Oct Feeder Cattle Options
< 600 Steer 17 WK LRP Expires on Oct 25
Oct Option
CALL
Put
LRP
LRP
Subsidized Subsidized
Strike Price Premium
Premium
Coverage
Coverage
LRP
LRP
($/cwt.) (Cont) ($/cwt.) (Cont)
Level
Price Rates/CWT Rates/Head
116.00
3.47 1,735
7.44 3,722
93%
$ 114.56
$1.59 $
8.34
112.00
4.07 2,035
4.07 2,035
91%
$ 112.09
$1.17 $
6.13
110.00
5.42 2,711
3.44 1,718
89%
$ 109.63
$0.85 $
4.44
108.00
6.59 3,296
2.62 1,309
87%
$ 107.17
$0.61 $
3.18
106.00
8.20 4,099
2.24 1,119
104.00
9.61 4,803
1.66
829
102.00 11.38 5,692
1.45
725
Forward Contract Bid = $118.00 cwt/ $619.50 hd for Steers Oct 25 Delivery
Average 5.25 cwt steer CME basis in late October is + $8/cwt
Pricing Opportunities for Steer Calves on 06/28/06 To Be Delivered as 5.25 cwt steers
on October 25, 2006
Minimum
CME
Expected
Put
Expected
Put Option
+
CME
Option
= Net
Strike Price
Basis
Premium
Price
$108
+
10/25/06 LRP
Coverage Price
+
(in CWT)
$114.56
+
$8
Expected
LRP
Basis
-$1
-
-
-
$2.62
LRP
Premium
(in CWT)
$1.59
= $113.38
Minimum
Expected
= Net
Price
= $111.97
Case Problem, 2007 Weekly CME March Feeder Cattle
Futures (High, Low, Close)
$106.00
June 28th Scenario
For Feeder Sales
in February 2007
$104.00
$102.00
$100.00
$98.00
June 28
$100.00
$96.00
$94.00
$92.00
$90.00
$88.00
1/4/06
2/18/06
4/4/06
5/19/06
7/3/06
8/17/06
10/1/06
11/15/06
12/30/06
2/13/07
Pricing Feeder Steers for Feb 2007 Delivery
Pricing Opportunities for Steers on 6/28//06 to be delivered as 8.0 cwt steers on
February 21, 2007
SHOULD I SELL SOME feeder Steers TODAY? (Y/N) _________
WHAT QTY?
HOW?
CME Mar 07 Feeder Cattle Futures
=
$100.00
LRP Feb 21 Expected Ending Value
=
$102.86
Average 8 cwt steer LRP basis in late February is -$3/cwt
Steers weighing 6 to 9 cwt
600-900# Steer 34 WK LRP Expires on Feb 21, 2007
CME Mar Feeder Cattle Options
Mar Option CALL
Put
LRP
LRP
Subsidized Subsidized
Strike Price Premium
Premium
Coverage
Coverage
LRP
LRP
($/cwt.) (Cont) ($/cwt.) (Cont)
Level
Price
Rates/cwt Rates/Head
104.00
4.81 2,404
8.75 4,374
94%
$ 96.69 $
4.23 $
33.85
100.00
6.46 3,231
6.46 3,231
92%
$ 94.63 $
3.69 $
29.54
98.00
7.43 3,715
5.46 2,730
90%
$ 92.57 $
3.21 $
25.71
96.00
8.50 4,248
4.56 2,278
88%
$ 90.51 $
2.79 $
22.32
94.00
9.66 4,830
3.75 1,875
92.00 10.92 5,461
3.04 1,520
90.00 12.28 6,138
2.43 1,213
Forward Contract Bid = $97.00 cwt/ $776.00 hd for Feeder Steers Feb 21, 2007 Delivery
Average 8 cwt steer CME basis in late February is + $1/cwt
Pricing Feeder Steers for Feb 2007 Delivery
Pricing Opportunities for Steers on 6/28//06 to be delivered as 8.0 cwt steers on
February 21, 2007
YES_________
/ NOWHAT QTY? 80 head
SHOULD I SELL SOME feeder Steers TODAY? (Y/N)
FORWARD CONTRACT 10 Feeders, 10 LRP & 1 Mar PUT
HOW?
CME Mar 07 Feeder Cattle Futures
=
$100.00
LRP Feb 21 Expected Ending Value
=
$102.86
Average 8 cwt steer LRP basis in late February is -$3/cwt
Steers weighing 6 to 9 cwt
600-900# Steer 34 WK LRP Expires on Feb 21, 2007
CME Mar Feeder Cattle Options
Mar Option CALL
Put
LRP
LRP
Subsidized Subsidized
Strike Price Premium
Premium
Coverage
Coverage
LRP
LRP
($/cwt.) (Cont) ($/cwt.) (Cont)
Level
Price
Rates/cwt Rates/Head
104.00
4.81 2,404
8.75 4,374
94%
$ 96.69 $
4.23 $
33.85
100.00
6.46 3,231
6.46 3,231
92%
$ 94.63 $
3.69 $
29.54
98.00
7.43 3,715
5.46 2,730
90%
$ 92.57 $
3.21 $
25.71
96.00
8.50 4,248
4.56 2,278
88%
$ 90.51 $
2.79 $
22.32
94.00
9.66 4,830
3.75 1,875
92.00 10.92 5,461
3.04 1,520
90.00 12.28 6,138
2.43 1,213
Forward Contract Bid = $97.00 cwt/ $776.00 hd for Feeder Steers Feb 21, 2007 Delivery
Average 8 cwt steer CME basis in late February is + $1/cwt
Pricing Opportunities for Steers on 6/28//06 to be delivered as 8.0 cwt steers on
February 21, 2007
CME
Put Option
Strike Price
+
$96
+
LRP Expired
2/21/07 Coverage
Price
+
(in CWT)
$96.69
+
Expected
CME
Basis
$1
Expected
LRP
Basis
-$3
-
-
-
-
Put
Option
Premium
$4.56
LRP
Premium
(in CWT)
$4.23
Minimum
Expected
= Net
Price
= $92.44
Minimum
Expected
= Net
Price
= $89.46
OPTIONS & LRP MARKETING LEDGER
Name_________________________________
50,000#/90Hd = 555# steer
Offset in
Offset in
50,000#/60Hd = 833# steer Oct
Feb
Transaction
Jun 28
Jun 28
90
Calves
60
Steers
PUTS
$108
$96
Strike Price
________
________
Premium/Contract
________
$1,309 ________
$2,278
Contracts Bought
________
________
1
1
Contracts Sold
________ ________
Premium/Contract @ Offset
________ ________
Gain (Loss)/Contract
________ ________
Total Gain (Loss)
________ ________
CALLS
Strike Price
________ ________
Premium/Contract
________ ________
Contracts Bought
________ ________
Contracts Sold
________ ________
Premium/Contract @ Offset
________ ________
Gain (Loss)/Contract
________ ________
Total Gain (Loss)
________ ________
LRP Steers
17 Wk LRP 34 WK LRP
$114.56 ________
$96.69
Coverage Price/ cwt
________
$8.34
$33.85
Premium/ Head
________
________
Head Insured
________
________
10
10
Gross Indemnity/Head
________ ________
Net Indemnity/Head
________ ________
Total Gain (Loss)
Total
Offset in
Feb
Oct 25
Pymt
Recvd
________
________
________
________
________
________
________ ________
________
________
________
________
________
________
________ ________
17 Wk LRP
________
________
________
________
________
________ ________ ________ ________
(= Net Indemnity X No. Head)
Total of 150 steers priced using 1 Oct put & 1 Mar put and
20 steers priced using LRP
Total Gain/Loss from LRP/Options
________
CASH & CONTRACT MARKETING LEDGER
Total
Pymt
Feb 21
Recvd
________
Transaction
Jun 28
Oct 25
Gain/Loss from LRP/Options (other side of page)
Weaning Forward Cash Contract ( Steers)
$619.50
Weaning Price Bid/head
________
Number Head
________
10
$6195.00
Contracted Weaning Sales
________
________
Cash Sales/head
________
Number Head
________
Cash Weaning Sales
________
________
Feeder Forward Cash Contract
$776
Feeder Price Bid/head
________
________
10
Number Head
________
________
Contracted Feeder Sales
________
________
________
$7,760
Cash Price/head
________
Number Head
________
Cash Feeder Sales
________ ________
Total Steer Marketing Revenue
Total Cash Cost/Calf
Number Weaning Head Sold
$545
________
Total Other (Non-Milo) Costs for Feeder
Number Feeders Sold
________
________
$635
________ ________
Total Costs
________
Net Steers Sales (Revenue - Costs ________
Bushels of Milo/ head
Head Retained for Feeders
Total Bushels Fed
Total Milo Fed bu
15
________
________
______bu
Additional Marketing Decisions
• Milo decision in late July
• Calf-Feeder Cattle Decision in late October
• Harvest yields drawn from distribution in late
October
• Results from CME put options, LRP insurance,
forward contracts recorded
Case Problem, 2006 Weekly CME October Feeder Cattle
Futures (High, Low, Close)
$116.00
Oct. 25th Scenario
For Calf Sales
$114.00
$112.00
$110.00
June 28
$112.00
$108.00
$106.00
Oct. 25
$102.00
$104.00
$102.00
$100.00
$98.00
1/4/06
2/1/06
3/1/06
3/29/06
4/26/06
5/24/06
6/21/06
7/19/06
8/16/06
9/13/06
10/11/06
11/8/06
October 25, 2006
MARKET INDICATORS: Despite the falling feedgrain prices since August, feeder cattle prices have
declined. Failure to reopen the Japanese market has depressed fed and feeder cattle prices.
Prospects for opening the Japanese market anytime soon are dim.
Steer Calves on 10/25/06 Cash Bid = $110.00 cwt/ $577.50 hd Immediate Delivery
SHOULD I SELL SOME Steers TODAY? (Y/N) YES / NO WHAT QTY? 10 head
HOW?
Cash Sale 10 steers at weaning
CME Oct Feeder Cattle Futures
=
$102.00
CME Feeder Cattle Index
=
$100.00
CME Oct Feeder Cattle Options
< 600 Steer 17 WK LRP Expires on Oct 25
Oct Option CALL
Put
LRP
LRP
Gross
Gross
Strike Price Premium
Premium
Coverage
Coverage Indemnity Indemnity
($/cwt.) (Cont) ($/cwt.) (Cont)
Level
Price
CWT
Head
116.00
0.00
0
14.00 7,000
93%
$ 114.56
$4.56
$23.93
112.00
0.00
0
10.00 5,000
91%
$ 112.09
$2.09
$10.99
110.00
0.00
0
8.00 4,000
89%
$ 109.63
$0.00
$0.00
108.00
0.00
0
6.00 3,000
87%
$ 107.17
$0.00
$0.00
106.00
0.00
0
4.00 2,000
104.00
0.01
3
2.01 1,003
102.00
0.40
199
0.40
199
OPTIONS & LRP MARKETING LEDGER
Name_________________________________
Offset in
Offset in
Oct
Feb
Transaction
Jun 28
Jun 28
PUTS
60 Steers
$108
$96
Strike Price
________ ________
Premium/Contract
________
________
$1,309
$2,278
Contracts Bought
________
________
1
1
Contracts Sold
________ ________
Premium/Contract @ Offset
________
________
$3,000
$1,691
Gain (Loss)/Contract
________ ________
$1,691
Total Gain (Loss)
________
________
CALLS
Strike Price
________ ________
Premium/Contract
________ ________
Contracts Bought
________ ________
Contracts Sold
________ ________
Premium/Contract @ Offset
________ ________
Gain (Loss)/Contract
________ ________
Total Gain (Loss)
________ ________
LRP Steers
17 Wk LRP 34 WK LRP
$114.56 ________
$96.69
Coverage Price/ cwt
________
$8.34
$33.85
Premium/ Head
________
________
Head Insured
________
________
10
10
$23.93
Gross Indemnity/Head
________ ________
Net Indemnity/Head
________
________
$15.59
Total Gain (Loss)
Total
Offset in
Feb
Oct 25
Pymt
Recvd
________
________
________
________
________
________
________ ________
________
________
________
________
________
________
________ ________
17 Wk LRP
________
________
________
________
________
$155.90 ________ ________ ________
________
(= Net Indemnity X No. Head)
Total Gain/Loss from LRP/Options
________
Pricing Feeder Steers for Feb 2007 Delivery
Pricing Opportunities for Steer Calves on 10/25/06 To Be Delivered in February
2007 as Feeder Calves
SHOULD I SELL SOME Steers TODAY? (Y/N) __________ WHAT QTY? ____________
HOW?
CME Mar 07 Feeder Cattle Futures
=
$98.00
LRP Feb 21 Expected Ending Value
=
$99.71
Average 8 cwt steer LRP basis in late February is -$3/cwt
Steers weighing 6 to 9 cwt
CME Mar Feeder Cattle Options
600-900# Steer 17 WK LRP Expires on Feb 21, 2007
Mar Option CALL
Put
LRP
LRP
Subsidized Subsidized
Strike Price Premium
Premium
Coverage
Coverage
LRP
LRP
($/cwt.) (Cont) ($/cwt.) (Cont)
Level
Price
Rates/cwt Rates/Head
104.00
1.85
923
7.80 3,898
94%
$ 93.73
$2.17 $
17.33
100.00
3.17 1,583
5.15 2,575
90%
$ 89.74
$1.28 $
10.23
98.00
4.04 2,020
4.04 2,020
86%
$ 85.75
$0.70 $
5.63
96.00
5.07 2,534
3.09 1,543
82%
$ 81.77
$0.36 $
2.88
94.00
6.25 3,126
2.29 1,143
92.00
7.59 3,794
1.64
819
90.00
9.06 4,532
1.13
566
Forward Contract Bid = $96.00 cwt/ $768.00 hd for Feeder Steers Feb 21, 2007 Delivery
Average 8 cwt CME steer basis in late February is + $1/cwt
Case Problem, 2007 Weekly CME March Feeder Cattle
Futures (High, Low, Close)
$106.00
$104.00
$102.00
Oct. 25
$98.00
$100.00
$98.00
June 28
$100.00
$96.00
$94.00
$92.00
$90.00
$88.00
1/4/06
2/18/06
4/4/06
5/19/06
7/3/06
8/17/06
10/1/06
11/15/06
12/30/06
2/13/07
Pricing Opportunities for Steer Calves on 10/25/06 To Be Delivered in February
2007 as Feeder Calves
CME
Put Option
Strike Price
$96
+
+
2/21/07 LRP
Coverage Price +
(in CWT)
$93.73
+
Expected
CME
Basis
$1
Expected
LRP
Basis
-$3
-
-
-
-
Put
Option
Premium
$3.09
LRP
Premium
(in CWT)
$2.17
Minimum
Expected
= Net
Price
= $91.91
Minimum
Expected
= Net
Price
= $88.56
Pricing Feeder Steers for Feb 2007 Delivery
Pricing Opportunities for Steer Calves on 10/25/06 To Be Delivered in February
2007 as Feeder Calves
YES / NO WHAT QTY? ____________
80 head
SHOULD I SELL SOME Steers TODAY? (Y/N) __________
HOW? FORWARD CONTRACT 10 Feeders, 10 LRP & 1 PUT
CME Mar 07 Feeder Cattle Futures
=
$98.00
LRP Feb 21 Expected Ending Value
=
$99.71
Average 8 cwt steer LRP basis in late February is -$3/cwt
Steers weighing 6 to 9 cwt
CME Mar Feeder Cattle Options
600-900# Steer 17 WK LRP Expires on Feb 21, 2007
Mar Option CALL
Put
LRP
LRP
Subsidized Subsidized
Strike Price Premium
Premium
Coverage
Coverage
LRP
LRP
($/cwt.) (Cont) ($/cwt.) (Cont)
Level
Price
Rates/cwt Rates/Head
104.00
1.85
923
7.80 3,898
94%
$ 93.73
$2.17 $
17.33
100.00
3.17 1,583
5.15 2,575
90%
$ 89.74
$1.28 $
10.23
98.00
4.04 2,020
4.04 2,020
86%
$ 85.75
$0.70 $
5.63
96.00
5.07 2,534
3.09 1,543
82%
$ 81.77
$0.36 $
2.88
94.00
6.25 3,126
2.29 1,143
92.00
7.59 3,794
1.64
819
90.00
9.06 4,532
1.13
566
Forward Contract Bid = $96.00 cwt/ $768.00 hd for Feeder Steers Feb 21, 2007 Delivery
Average 8 cwt CME steer basis in late February is + $1/cwt
OPTIONS & LRP MARKETING LEDGER
Name_________________________________
Offset in
Offset in
Oct
Feb
Transaction
Jun 28
Jun 28
PUTS
60 Steers
$108
$96
Strike Price
________ ________
Premium/Contract
________
$1,309 ________
$2,278
Contracts Bought
________
________
1
1
Contracts Sold
________ ________
Premium/Contract @ Offset
________
________
$3,000
$1,691
Gain (Loss)/Contract
________ ________
$1,691
Total Gain (Loss)
________
________
CALLS
Strike Price
________ ________
Premium/Contract
________ ________
Contracts Bought
________ ________
Contracts Sold
________ ________
Premium/Contract @ Offset
________ ________
Gain (Loss)/Contract
________ ________
Total Gain (Loss)
________ ________
LRP Steers
17 Wk LRP 34 WK LRP
$114.56 ________
$96.69
Coverage Price/ cwt
________
$8.34
$33.85
Premium/ Head
________
________
Head Insured
________
________
10
10
$23.93
Gross Indemnity/Head
________ ________
Net Indemnity/Head
________ ________
$15.59
Total Gain (Loss)
Total
Offset in
Feb
Pymt
Oct 25
Recvd
60 Steers
$96
________
________
$1,543
________
1
________
________
________
________ ________
________
________
________
________
________
________
________ ________
17 Wk LRP
$93.73
________
$17.33
________
________
10
________
________
$155.90
________ ________ ________ ________
(= Net Indemnity X No. Head)
Total of 120 steers priced using 2 Mar puts and
20 steers priced using LRP
Total Gain/Loss from LRP/Options
________
CASH & CONTRACT MARKETING LEDGER
Total
Pymt
Feb 21
Recvd
________
Transaction
Jun 28
Oct 25
Gain/Loss from LRP/Options (other side of page)
Weaning Forward Cash Contract ( Steers)
$619.50
Weaning Price Bid/head
________
10
Number Head
________
$6,195
Contracted Weaning Sales
________
________
$577.50
Cash Sales/head
________
10
Number Head
________
Cash Weaning Sales
________
________
$5,775
Feeder Forward Cash Contract
$776
$768
Feeder Price Bid/head
________
________
10
10
Number Head
________
________
Contracted Feeder Sales
________
________
________
$7,760
$7,680
Cash Price/head
________
Number Head
________
Cash Feeder Sales
________ ________
Total Steer Marketing Revenue
Total Cash Cost/Calf
Number Weaning Head Sold
$545
________
Total Other (Non-Milo) Costs for Feeder
Number Feeders Sold
________
________
$635
________ ________
Total Costs
________
Net Steers Sales (Revenue - Costs ________
Bushels of Milo/ head
Head Retained for Feeders
Total Bushels Fed
Total Milo Fed bu
15
________
________
______bu
Calculate your net revenue for your enterprise
1 . Acres Harvested [See "A." on Yield Slip"] Ac.
625.0
$+
80
2 . Average Yield [See "B." on "Yield Slip"]
Bu\Ac.
50,000
3 . Total Bushels [See "C." on "Yield Slip"]
Bus.
4 . Ttl Milo Mrkt Income [See Mktng Ledger]
$+
5 . Net Steer Sales [ Cash& Contract MKT Ledger]
$+
6 . Crop Insurance Pymnts [See "Payout" Tbl]
$+
7 . LDP Payment
$ + NONE
8 . Counter Cyclical Payments
9 . Direct Payments
__
$+
10 . Crop Insurance Premium Expenses
$-
11 . Ttl Crop Prod Expns [See "D." on "Yield Slip"]
$-
12 . Net Income [Lines (4+5+ 6+ 7+ 8+9) - (10+11)]
$
$12,000
$13,000
$108,000
Calculate your net revenue for your enterprise
1 . Acres Harvested [See "A." on Yield Slip"] Ac.
625.0
$+
80
2 . Average Yield [See "B." on "Yield Slip"]
Bu\Ac.
50,000
3 . Total Bushels [See "C." on "Yield Slip"]
4 . Ttl Milo Mrkt Income [See Mktng Ledger]
5.
6.
Bus.
+
Net Steer Sales [ Cash& Contract MKT Ledger]+
+
Crop Insurance Pymnts [See "Payout" Tbl]
7 . LDP Payment
8 . Counter Cyclical Payments
9 . Direct Payments
$+
$+
$+
$102,150
$38,188
$0
$ + NONE
+
+
__
$+
10 . Crop Insurance Premium Expenses
$-
11 . Ttl Crop Prod Expns [See "D." on "Yield Slip"]
$-
12 . Net Income [Lines (4+5+ 6+ 7+ 8+9) - (10+11)]
$
$12,000
$13,000
$7,000
$108,000
$50,338
LRP Summary
LRP does not guarantee a cash price
LRP protects against a negative change in CME
Cash Index Price
LRP does NOT guarantee the basis
Policy does not cover any other peril
LRP Summary
• LRP premiums are similar to comparable CME
put options
– This means USDA subsidy does not provide an
incentive to buy LRP vs. CME Put Options
• Orders are filled at the stated premium
– Deferred options are sometimes thinly traded & it’s
difficult to execute option transactions at quoted
premiums
LRP Advantages

Insure the exact number of head that you choose

Flexible contract size matches “small” operations vs.
 Feeder cattle futures that represents about 67 steers
weighing 750 pounds
 Live cattle futures that represents about 33 steers
weighing 1200 pounds

Can incrementally minimum price a few head at a
time
Producer’s LRP Disadvantages
• Cannot exercise or cancel LRP contract
– Inability to cancel contract inhibits marketing
flexibility
– Also an issue if cattle are sold early because of
drought damaged pastures.
• Can not roll up the LRP coverage in a rising market
– CME options offer flexibility of “rolling up” coverage
• Contracts only offered in 4 week increments
– Lack of flexibility creates extra basis risk
Producer’s LRP Disadvantages
• Coverage is always greater than 5% out of the
money and in some cases almost 10%
• If company exceeds its premium limit, producers
with that company’s policy can not buy
additional SCEs even though other companies
still have capacity to sell
LRP Advantages for Lenders
• Lenders may prefer LRP over a put to cover
loan collateral
• Producers can’t cancel the coverage
• LRP is insurance, so Lenders can take a
security interest in the contract
Who Attended The Workshops?
Cow-Calf Operation
50%
Cattle Backgrounding Operation
42%
Cattle Feeding Operation
21%
Ag. Lender
18%
Crop Insurance Agent
6%
Commodity Broker
1%
Other
15%
How Effective Are The LRP Workshops?
Participant Evaluation Results
On a scale of 1 (very useful) through 5 (not useful),
1. How would you rate the overall usefulness of the
workshop?
1.70
2. How would you rate the usefulness of the "case
farm" exercise?
1.79
How Effective Are The LRP Workshops?
Participant Evaluation Results
On a scale of 1 (very useful) through 5 (not useful),
3. Would you recommend this workshop to others
who have a stake in the cattle business?
1.63
How Much Did Participants Learn?
Pre & Post Workshop Reviews
1.
Are there any limitations regarding how many head of feeder cattle can
be insured via LRP for Feeder Cattle? If so, what are the limitations?
2.
Who can you purchase LRP insurance from?
3.
When purchasing LRP Insurance for Feeder Cattle, what is the
maximum insurance coverage price that you can purchase for your
feeder cattle on any given day?
4.
What published price is the LRP Expected End Value for feeder cattle
base on?
How Much Did Participants Learn?
Pre & Post Workshop Reviews
5.
Assume that you purchased LRP Insurance for 50 head of steers that
you own and that you expect the steers will weigh 800 lbs at the end of
the coverage period. Also assume that your Coverage Price is $104/cwt
and that the CME Feeder Cattle Index value during the ending week is
$100/cwt. What indemnity, if any, will you receive from your LRP
insurance policy?
6.
Have you ever used CME put options?
How Much Did Participants Learn?
Pre & Post Workshop Reviews
• Participants that had used options
previously earned higher scores on preworkshop review than participants that had
no options experience
• 47% correct vs 37% correct
How Much Did Participants Learn?
Pre & Post Workshop Reviews
Improvement from Pre- to Post Workshop Evaluation
35%
30%
Frequency
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Increase in number of questions answered correctly
Where Do We Go From Here?
• Anticipate conducting more workshops in
fall and winter 2005-2006
• Workshop improvements
consider modifying structure so the entire
workshop focuses on case farm with short
lectures integrated within the case farm at
“teachable moments”
K-State LRP Workshops
Need More Information:
Email
jmintert@ksu.edu