Pilot sites preselection for climate change monitoring Introduction The “Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal fisheries to climate change” project aims at assisting Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs) to establish long term monitoring in PICTs through a network of partners (communities, governmental departments, NGOs and academic/scientific community) and field-test monitoring pilot projects to determine whether changes are occurring in the productivity of coastal fisheries and, if changes are found, to identify the extent to which such changes are due to climate change as opposed to other causes. SPC will provide support to countries participating in the project in term of methodological training, data entry/analysis software, database for data storage both in-country and regionally, additional survey equipment and satellite imagery for pilot sites and a knowledge exchange system for countries and partners. A site will consist of monitoring stations within and outside an MPA and associated communities exploiting the fishing ground which will be surveyed regularly other the next 20 years. Sites will be equipped with environmental loggers. The partners on their side will engage themselves to conduct regular surveys of the selected sites using methodologies that allow long term time series comparison and detection of change on coastal fisheries habitat, fish and invertebrate resources and their exploitation. An expert workshop was held at SPC from 19-22 April 2010 with scientists and representatives of many PICTs to identify current monitoring and climate change monitoring and research projects and to design a monitoring project that can be implemented by PICTs. Following workshop participants recommendations the pre-selection of sites focused on atolls (to eliminate terrigenous effect), that are likely to be the more quickly impacted by climate change. The study conducted by MRAG Asia Pacific and the workshop held in Noumea have shown that in most French and American territories there are already projects aiming at monitoring oceanographic parameters, habitat and resources. SPC project will collaborate with these existing programmes to establish a regional network of monitored sites. Figure 1 Mean surface water temperature from Autralia BoM 2009 reports The goal of the project is to help Pacific Island countries to put in place long term monitoring that they can conduct themselves with minimal assistance so several criteria have been taken into account for the choice of sites: the interest countries have in climate change issues and requests for SPC assistance expressed during join country strategy consultations the existence of baseline data and on-going monitoring programs logistics and the likeliness that a long term monitoring program is sustainable at that location the status of the coastal habitat, expected terrigenous impact and type of island. In addition, Micronesia and Western Polynesia are areas with the greater vulnerability to thermal stress predicted by models for the next 30-50 years (Donner et al. 2005) and we would like to complement existing comprehensive climate change monitoring programs with some sites in Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia. Using all these parameters, we selected sites which are the best candidates for monitoring: Pohnpei (FSM), Majuro (Marshall Is) and Funafuti (Tuvalu). Additional sites were considered: Abaiang or Abemama (Kiribati), Ulithi (FSM), Manus (Papua New Guinea) and Marau Sound (Solomon Is) but they are probably more logistically difficult and long term monitoring would require additional effort from the countries. Two of these additional sites will be selected. Additionally, we plan to link with existing monitoring programmes in Fiji, Palau, New Caledonia, French Polynesia and American Territories. In any case the final choice will come from the countries themselves as SPC will contact them to be part of the project. The countries will be the ones implementing the monitoring. Figure 2 Locations of preselected sites and Polynesia Mana network Tuvalu The Tuvalu and SPC Joint Country Strategy (JCS) 2008-2012 mentions that Tuvalu requires assistance from SPC to assess the impact risks of climate cycles and variation on fisheries in order to improve climate change prospects, and ensure improved information is available on climate change implications for development planning purpose. Funafuti Because of limited resources, long term monitoring is likely to be an issue in Tuvalu and is unlikely to happen in atolls other than Funafuti and possibly Nukufetau. From a logistical point of view Funafuti would probably be far easier for implementation of long term monitoring but the reefs are already heavily impacted in Funafuti due to trampling, poor water quality and coral predators especially outside the Funafuti Conservation Area (FCA). Figure 3 Percentage of live coral from Funafuti PROCFish finfish survey (November 2004) and boundaries of conservation area Site characteristics Governmental technical services (fisheries, etc) are located on that atoll and logistic is easier than for the other Tuvaluan atolls. A SEAFRAME gauge was installed in Funafuti in 1993 as part of the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring project and has been recording since then sea level, air and water temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction (Australian BoM 2009) Fish, invertebrate and socio-economic data was collected under the PROCFish/C project in 20042005. The Funafuti Conservation Area of Kogatapu created in 1996 covers 33 km² of water and land on the western side of the atoll. A relatively high awareness of the FCA by the Lofeagai community has been reported. An analysis of coastal change using multi-temporal image comparisons has been conducted by SOPAC in 2006 (Webb 2006) using digitally rectified aerial photographs and a recent satellite image (2003). Early 2010 SOPAC conducted a bathymetric survey of Funafuti and hi-resolution satellite imagery will probably be purchased by SOPAC to complete the study. Coral reefs in Funafuti are reportedly heavily impacted due to poor water quality and coral predators (Drupella cornus in particularly). Coral communities are dominated by branching corals (Acropora spp.), with a low density of grazing fish species and high abundance of macro algae (Fisk 2007, Fisk & Job 2009). A reef restoration project has been conducted in 2007 with transplantation of live corals and monitoring of the transplanted colonies showed a sudden increase of mortality after 15 months, unrelated to thermal stress. While Funafuti is probably the only place in Tuvalu where long-term monitoring would be sustainable by governmental services, the already degraded status of reefs on the atoll prompts to focus on the FCA area and if possible to assess water quality regularly on the monitoring site. Federated States of Micronesia Federated States of Micronesia has put climate change as one of its strategic activities, in particular Develop and implement integrated coastal environmental and resource management plans to enhance resilience in coastal and other ecosystems to extreme hazards exacerbated by climate variables and sea level rise and Integrate considerations of climate change and sea level rise in strategic and operational (e.g. land use) planning for future development, including that related to structures, infrastructure, and critical assets supporting social and other services. Awareness on climate change issues is also one of the priorities of the FSM government. A recent baseline survey has been conducted in all four states, using a combination of rapid assessment surveys and photo quadrats and it is planned under the Micronesia Challenge that surveys will be conducted regularly by each states to assess the status of MPAs. While the main islands of Pohnpei, Kosrae and Yap states are high islands, Chuuk and outer islands are mainly atolls. From a logistical point of view it would be easier to work in Pohnpei, where the federal offices, College of Micronesia, SPC and Pohnpei states services and NGOs are located. Pohnpei Figure 4 Community Marine Protected Areas Network in Pohnpei (actual boundaries vary depending on source) Figure 5 Pohnpei and nearby Pakin and Ant atolls Site characteristics The Conservation Society of Pohnpei reports 11 MPAs for Pohnpei associated to 8 communities. Pohnpei was not fully surveyed as part of PROCFish/C but was surveyed in 2008 for trochus and the Conservation Society of Pohnpei and College of Micronesia regularly survey coral reefs, fish and seagrass beds (Kosrae and Pohnpei participate to SeagrassNet). Kehpara Marine Sanctuary is a spawning aggregation site for groupers and regularly monitored. A SEAFRAME gauge was installed in Pohnpei in 2001 as part of the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring project and has been recording since then sea level etc. The short-term analyses indicate a fast rate of sea level rise between 2002 and 2003 resulting in 16.8 mm/year on average but longer term data is needed to establish the real trend (between 4.3 and 9.5 mm/year for gauges installed around 1993) (Australian BoM 2009) SPC and federal offices are located in Pohnpei which simplifies logistics. Pohnpei is a high volcanic island and could be a case study for an integrated reef/watershed climate change project for a French Global Environment Fund (FFEM) proposal. Pohnpei state conducts market surveys regularly. Ulithi While Pohnpei is certainly the easiest location for a site in FSM, selecting one of the Yap state atolls already regularly surveyed as secondary site would provide complementary information on a longitudinal gradient. Ulithi is the atoll the closest to Yap proper and could be this secondary site. The atoll could be equipped with temperature loggers and the public awareness heightened so that the FSM surveyor team is notified if a destructive event occurs. Figure 6 Ulithi atoll Site characteristics Surveys were conducted by the PROCFish/C project in Yap proper but it is also a high island. Ulithi on contrary is an atoll. It has been surveyed using rapid ecological assessment & photo quadrats early 2010 and in 2007 using REA. Ulithi is one hour flight from Yap proper and will be resurveyed regularly by the FSM government. Marshall Islands Marshall Islands mentions Strengthen the relevant institutions and improve procedural mechanisms so as to be able to secure the optimal support from both international and regional efforts, in minimising the adverse impact of climate change as one of its goals in the RMI/SPC Joint Country Strategy 20082010. Majuro and Ailuk are the two atolls which are the more regularly monitored in the country with Majuro logistically being the easiest. Majuro Figure 7 Percentage of live coral from Laura PROCFish finfish survey (2007) Site characteristics A SEAFRAME gauge was installed in Majuro in 1993 as part of the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring project and has been recording since then sea level etc. A wave buoy has been deployed in May 2010 to monitor wave height, time between waves and sea surface temperature near Majuro (Dr Ford, College of Marshall Islands) Majuro (Laura) was surveyed in 2007 under PROCFish/C project NGOs and MIMRA are located on Majuro, which simplifies logistics. Papua New Guinea There is currently no joint country strategy with Papua New Guinea; however, given its location in the Western Pacific and being close to the equator, Manus Island could be a possible site. Manus Figure 8 Percentage of live coral from Andra (Manus) PROCFish finfish survey Site characteristics A SEAFRAME gauge was installed in Manus Island in September 1994 as part of the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring project and has been recording since then sea level etc. Fish, invertebrate and socio-economic data was collected under the PROCFish/C project in Andra in 2006 While Manus is a high island, the reefs surrounding Andra have channels and passes that allow frequent water exchange and healthy habitat. Andra and Ahus islands are regularly monitored by the Wildlife Conservation Society. Kiribati In the Kiribati and SPC Joint Country Strategy (JCS) 2008-2011, training is requested on monitoring the impacts of climate change and managing marine resources. A SEAFRAME gauge was installed in Tarawa in December 1992 as part of the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring project and has been recording since then sea level etc. Likewise Funafuti, Tarawa lagoon is impacted by water quality problems and overfishing that may have a larger impact on the short term than climate change. The two islands close from Tarawa, Abaiang in the North and Abemama in the South would probably be sites more suitable for climate change monitoring. Abaiang Figure 9 Percentage of live coral from Abaiang PROCFish finfish survey Site characteristics Fish, invertebrate and socio-economic data was collected under the PROCFish/C project in 2004 Abaiang is close to Tarawa (North) were the governmental offices are located so logistics is easier than for other islands The Abaiang lagoon has been fully studied in 1999 by SOPAC to establish a numerical circulation model (bathymetry, salinity, surface temperature etc…). This study constitutes an invaluable baseline survey of physical parameters (Smith 1999). Abemama Figure 10 Percentage of live coral from Abemama PROCFish finfish survey (2004) Site characteristics Fish, invertebrate and socio-economic data was collected under the PROCFish/C project in 2004 Abemana is close to Tarawa A coral reef monitoring program has been established by SPREP in Kuria, Abemama and Tarawa in 2004 (Vieux 2004). The monitoring program suggests using photo quadrats and CPCe and a baseline has been established for the 3 atolls. Solomon Islands Solomon Islands government has put adaptation of fisheries management to build resilience to climate change as one of its sectorial objectives in the Solomon Islands and SPC joint country strategy 20092012. In particularly the JCS mentions the Identification of the implications of climate change for the contributions of fisheries to economic growth, food security and livelihoods and the Implementation of management measures and policies to diversify the way fish are produced, processed and distributed to build resilience to climate change. (Anon 2008) Ontong Java and Sikaiana atolls are some of the few Solomon Island atolls. Ontong Java with a total surface of 1400 km² is one of the largest in the world. Yet logistics & field work is not easy in Solomon Islands. The Marau Sound site, surveyed under PROCFish/C, is on the tip of Guadalcanal and is also open to the ocean and with less terrigenous influence than reefs surrounding most of high islands. Guadalcanal A SEAFRAME gauge was installed in Honiara mid 1994 as part of the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring project and has been recording since then sea level etc. Marau Sound (Guadalcanal) Figure 11 Marau Sound on Guadalcanal Site characteristics Marau was surveyed in 2006 under PROCFish/C project While not an atoll Marau is a large downed reef system at the eastern tip of Guadalcanal with clear water and water renewal from Ocean. A high coral biodiversity and healthy coral growth was reported by PROCFish/C team, yet with some crown-of-thorn infestation on some reefs. FSPI has worked with Marau community to set up MPAs and tabu areas. Yet fishing pressure is high and population relies a lot on marine resources for livelihood. References Anon. 2009. Federated States of Micronesia and the Secretariat of the Pacific Community Joint Country Strategy 2008-2012 Anon. 2007. Republic of the Marshall Islands and Secretariat of the Pacific Community Joint Country Strategy 2008-2010 Anon. 2008. Solomon Islands and Secretariat of the Pacific Community Joint Country Strategy 2009-2012 Anon. 2008? Tuvalu and Secretariat of the Pacific Community Joint Country Strategy 2008-2012 in support of Tuvalu’s National Strategy for Sustainable Development Australian Bureau of Meteorology Pacific 2009. Country Report Sea Level & Climate : Their Present State – Federated States of Micronesia - December 2009 Australian Bureau of Meteorology Pacific 2009. Country Report Sea Level & Climate : Their Present State – Kiribati - December 2009 Australian Bureau of Meteorology Pacific 2009 Country Report Sea Level & Climate : Their Present State – Marshall Islands - December 2009 Australian Bureau of Meteorology Pacific 2009 Country Report Sea Level & Climate : Their Present State – Papua New Guinea- December 2009 Australian Bureau of Meteorology Pacific 2009 Country Report Sea Level & Climate : Their Present State – Solomon Islands - December 2009 Australian Bureau of Meteorology Pacific. 2009. Country Report Sea Level & Climate : Their Present State - Tuvalu - December 2009 Australian Bureau of Meteorology Pacific 2009. Country Report Sea Level & Climate : Their Present State – Vanuatu - December 2009 Donner et al. 2005. Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change Fisk D. 2007. Funafuti Atoll coral reef restoration project: baseline report Fisk D., Job S. 2009. Funafuti Atoll coral reef restoration project: 1 to 18 months post-trial. Pinca S., Harriss F. 2008. Successful community engagement in resource management efforts on Ailuk Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands. SPC Women in Fisheries Information Bulletin #18 Smith. 1999. Study for numerical circulation model of Abaiang Lagoon, Kiribati. SOPAC. Vieux. 2004. Establishment of a coral reef monitoring program in Kuria, Abemama and Tarawa, Gilbert Group, Republic of Kiribati, May 7th-23rd 2004. Webb A. 2006. Coastal change analysis using multi-temporal image comparisons – Funafuti Atoll