The U.S. Program on Climate Variability
and Predictability (CLIVAR)
General Goals* of U.S.
CLIVAR
US CLIVAR is a research program designed to
accelerate progress in achieving several broad and
related goals:
* to identify and understand the major patterns of
climate variability on seasonal and
longer time
scales, and to evaluate
their predictability;
* to expand our capacity in short term (seasonal to
interannual) climate predictability;
* to enhance the reliability of the projections of
climate
change due to human activity,
including the
anthropogenically induced changes in atmospheric
composition;
* to better document the record of abrupt climate
changes in the past and the
mechanisms responsible
for these events,
and to evaluate the potential for
abrupt climate changes in the future.
*The Goals of US CLIVAR follow closely the
recommendations in the National Research Council reports,
GOALS and DECCEN:
A Scientific Strategy for U.S. Participation in the GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System)
Component of the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) Programme. NRC, 1998. Global
Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Panel, Climate Research Committee. 88 pp.
Decade-to-Century-Scale (DecCen) Climate Variability and Climate Change. NRC, 1998. Panel on
Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. 175pp.
Legacy of U.S.
CLIVAR
U.S. CLIVAR will:
* Enhance knowledge of the climate system;
* Advance the ability to predict the future state of
the
climate system;
* Transform the way we do climate science.
U.S. CLIVAR will produce:
* A climate observing system, with significant
improvements in the observing
system in and over
the oceans;
* Better models used to assimilate climate data and
to
forecast the future state of the climate
system;
* A dynamically and energetically consistent picture
of
the evolution of the global climate system
throughout
the US CLIVAR program, reaching
back to perhaps
1970.
Short-Term (5yr) Goals for U.S. CLIVAR
* Enhance the skill of ENSO predictions
* Identify and understand the major patterns of
climate variability on seasonal and
longer time
scales, and to
evaluate their predictability
* Assessment of the predictability of regional climate
variability
* Determine the relationship between
seasonal-to-interannual climate variability and
extreme weather events
* Assessment of the anthropogenically forced climate
change and it's relationship to the natural patterns
of internal variability: present and future
* Plausible hypotheses for Abrupt Climate Changes in
the Past
* Explanation for the recent multidecade trend in the
Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic
Oscillation
(attribution)
* To design and implement the global climate
observing
system
A Brief History of U.S. CLIVAR
Early 1998: Establishment of U.S. CLIVAR Science
Steering Committee (SSC) by an interagency
group (IAG) representing NASA, NOAA, NSF, and
DOE.
The SSC’s charge is to:
• provide overall scientific guidance
• recommend priorities & effective sequencing of
activities
• ensure balance within various elements of the U.S.
CLIVAR program and to identify scientific gaps
• September 1998:
First meeting of SSC
Broad review of current Agency activities; prepare recommendations for
U.S. position paper
• December 1998: International CLIVAR Commitment
Position paper presented at UNESCO for U.S. participation and
commitment in International CLIVAR
• January 1999:
Second SSC Meeting
Discussed coordination with other programs & need for U.S. CLIVAR
Project
Office;
Formed Implementation Panels (IPs) to design, launch, oversee &
coordinate CLIVAR related science activities around the Pacific basin, the
Atlantic basin, and over the Americas (the Pacific IP, Atlantic IP and Pan
American IP)
• May 1999: First (Joint) Meeting of Implementation Panels
Formulate general implementation strategy & identify items of highest
priority to begin U.S. activities in each sector
• May 1999:
Third SSC Meeting
Reports from each IP; Commission SIMAP;
Outline actions to include in FY2000 interagency AO
• September 1999: Fourth SSC Meeting
Overview of US efforts in estimating Anthropogenic Climate Change;
Agency summarize presently funded activities relevant to CLIVAR;
Discussion of issues related to an Observing System of Climate
A Brief History (cont).
• January 2000: Second Joint Meeting of Implementation
Panels
Update the ‘Goals of US CLIVAR’; Initiate development of an
over-arching US CLIVAR Implementation Plan
• February 2000: Fifth SSC Meeting
Hear reports from each IP; Commission Asian-Australian Monsoon WG;
Overview of present Climate Observing System; Coordination w/ SEARCH
• August 2000: Sixth SSC Meeting
Evaluate Regional Implementation Plans drafted by the Atlantic, Pacific
and Pan American Panels;
Continue work on Over-arching US CLIVAR Implementation Plan.
Publications
Numerous Publications from US CLIVAR and relevant to US
CLIVAR are available on the web at
www.usclivar.org/publications.html
Organizational Structure of US CLIVAR
Science Steering Committee
Interagency Working Group
Atlantic Implementation Panel
Pacific Implementation Panel
Pan-American Implementation Panel
Seasonal-to-Interannual Modeling and
Prediction Working Group
CLIVAR-PAGES Steering Group
Asian-Australian Monsoon Working Group
CLIVAR Project Office
WWW.USCLIVAR.ORG
Dr. David M. Legler
400 Virginia Ave;
legler@usclivar.org
SW, Suite 750;
20024
Tel: 202 314-2237
Washington DC
Fax: 202 488-8681
U.S. CLIVAR Science Implementation Plan
(Draft, December 2000. Available on CD)
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 What is U.S. CLIVAR?
1.2 Scientific Background
1.3 Strategy and Priorities
1.4 Relation to Other Programs
1.5 How this Report is Structured
2. GLOBAL STUDIES
2.1 Improve Data Record Through Analyses
2.1.1 Atmospheric Analyses
2.1.3 Climate Observation Centers
2.1.2 Ocean Analyses
2.1.4 Surface Flux Analyses
2.2 Improve Data Record Through Observations
2.2.1 Weather Observations for Climate
2.2.2 Satellite Observations of the Atmosphere
2.2.3 Satellite Observations of the Ocean
2.2.4 Sustained In-Situ Observations of the Ocean
2.2.5 Atmospheric Time Series
2.2.6 Paleo Observations
2.3 Global Modeling
2.3.1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Modeling and Prediction
2.3.2 Testing Climate Models Using Natural Variability
2.3.3. Process and Modeling Teams
2.4 Empirical Studies
3. REGIONAL FOCI
3.1 Atlantic Sector
3.1.1 The NAO and the Role of the Stratosphere
3.1.2 Tropical Atlantic Variability
3.1.3 The Atlantic MOC
3.1.4 Freshwater and Heat Exchange with the
Arctic
3.2 Pacific Sector
3.2.1 Goals of Pacific CLIVAR
3.2.2 Strategy
3.2.3 Pacific Basin Extended Climate Study (PBECS)
3.2.4 Other Regional and Process Studies
3.2.5 Other Supporting
Studies
3.3 Pan-American Sector
3.3.1 Understanding and simulating Pan American Climate Variability
3.3.2 Field Studies in the Pan American Region
3.3.3 Building the Pan American Climate Observing System
3.4 Other Regions
3.4.1 The Arctic
3.4.2 Austral-Asian Monsoon Region
3.4.3 Africa; Indian and Southern Oceans
Major CLIVAR Panels
THEME
NATIONAL
INTERNATIONAL
S/I Forecast and
Assimilation
S/I Modeling and
Prediction WG
WGSIP
Pan American
Monsoon System
Pan American
Implem. Panel
VAMOS
Pacific Climate
Variability
Pacific Implem.
Panel
Int. Pacific Panel
(January 2001)
Atlantic Climate
Variability
Atlantic Implem.
Panel
Int. Atlantic Panel
Austral-Asian
Monsoon
Austral-Asian Study
Group
AAMP
-----------------
ACSG
African Climate
Paleo
CLIVAR-PAGES WG
PAGES
Advancing Coupled
Models
(Model Development WGCM
Teams; CRC fallout)
Upper Ocean
Observing System
and State Estimation
PIP, AIP, Link to
GCOS etc.
UOP, TAO
Upcoming Events
Town Meeting to discuss US CLIVAR GOALS
and Draft Implementation Plans
Workshop on Decadal Variability, and
Meeting of the Pacific Implementation Panel
January 2001
January 2001
US CLIVAR SSC Meeting (Washington DC)
March 2001
Regional Draft Implementation Plans Finalized
Spring 2001
Publications
U. S. CLIVAR Position Paper, International CLIVAR Conference,
UNESCO, Paris, December 2-4, 1998. 40 pp.
Prospectus for a Pacific Basinwide Extended Climate Study
(PBECS), draft plan 1998, Lukas, R., R. Davis and W. Kessler.
US WOCE Project Office.
Pan American Climate Studies (PACS): A Scientific Prospectus
and Implementation Plan. 1999, Esbensen, S., T. Mitchell and
C.Gudmunson. eds. 40 pp.
Atlantic Climate Variability Experiment (ACVE): Science and
Draft Implementation Plan. 1998, Visbeck, M., D. Stammer, J.
Toole, P. Chang, J.Hurrell, Y. Kushnir, J. Marshall,
M.McCartney, J. McCreary, P. Rhines, W.Robinson and C. Wunsch
Implementation Plan for Atlantic Climate Variability
Experiment: Summary and Recommendations. 2000, Joyce, T., and
J. Marshall.
Implementing the Pacific Basin Extended Climate Study (PBECS).
August 2000, Davis et al.
A Science and Implementation Plan for EPIC: An Eastern Pacific
Investigation of Climate Processes in the Coupled
Ocean-Atmosphere System. 1999, EPIC Scientific Steering
Committee.
The US Reanalysis Program: Climatology for the New Millennium;
Report from the First Planning Workshop for the Next US Global
Reanalysis, July 2000, Eugenia Kalnay
Specific Examples
CLIVAR: Basic Science with immediate applications
* Improve understanding of sub-gridscale processes that are important
for climate, and the parameterization of these processes in climate
models. Examples include convection, gravity wave drag, ocean mixing)
* Advance the theory of climate predictability (e.g., initialization
techniques, methods of prediction)
* Application of these advances (e.g., El Nino prediction and beyond)
Determine the anatomy and predictability of the
long-lived anomalies that are observed
(e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation)
Predictability of Regional Climate Variations:
* Determine the relationship between regional and large-scale
circulation anomalies.
* Evaluate the predictability of the latter.
* Assess method of downscaling. Various methods include
empirical, nested models limited area models.
* Identify appropriate method (regionally dependent)
Specific Examples
Mechanisms for Past (paleo) Climates
Studies will lead to:
* A deeper understanding of the fundamental processes and
forcing responsible for today’s climate variability.
* Better high-end models for climate research.
* Appreciation for processes that enable large, abrupt
reconfiguration in the global climate system, like those in the
paleo record.
* Insight into the potential for future abrupt climate change. Are
there hidden surprises associated with increasing Greenhouse
gases?
Develop methodology for doing climate variability
theory
so we can avoid common traps that act to hinder progress. Examples:
*
“It is in the model, therefore it is ...”
*
Inconsistencies between simulated and observed
phenomenon.
*
Insufficient model exploration to demonstrate explanation of
simulated phenomenon is indeed correct.
Elements for defining this methodology are rapidly falling into place.
Improve the models used for projecting climate
change due to human activity
Specific Examples
CLIVAR provides the expertise and framework to
design, implement, evaluate and efficiently utilize the
Climate Observing System.
Frontier of Technology
* The Legacy of existing programs (e.g., TOGA and WOCE) includes a
focused
region climate observing system for El Nino, and important
portions of a global
climate observing system (e.g., Topex).
However, ...
* The Climate Observing System requires global observations of many
state
variables that are presently not available at
sufficiently fine spatial and temporal
resolution.
* But many are within reach ...
Global Precipitation
Surface heat and water fluxes
Ground Water
Leaf Area Index
Albedo
* CLIVAR will work to implement and evaluate these new technologies, for
consideration in a Climate Observing System.
Specific Examples
Determine the anatomy and predictability of the
long-lived anomalies that are observed
(e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation)
Predictability of Regional Climate Variations:
* Determine the relationship between regional and large-scale
circulation anomalies.
* Evaluate the predictability of the latter.
* Assess method of downscaling. Various methods include
empirical, nested models limited area models.
* Identify appropriate method (regionally dependent)
Mechanisms for Past (paleo) Climates
Studies will lead to:
* A deeper understanding of the fundamental processes and
forcing responsible for today’s climate variability.
* Better high-end models for climate research.
* Appreciation for processes that enable large, abrupt
reconfiguration in the global climate system, like those in the
paleo record.
* Insight into the potential for future abrupt climate change. Are
there hidden surprises associated with increasing Greenhouse
gases?
Specific Examples
CLIVAR: Basic Science with immediate
applications
* Improve understanding of sub-gridscale processes that are
important
for climate, and the parameterization of these processes in
climate
models. Examples include convection, gravity wave drag, ocean
mixing)
* Advance the theory of climate predictability (e.g., initialization
techniques, methods of prediction)
* Application of these advances (e.g., EL Nino prediction and
beyond)
Improve the models used for projecting climate
change due to human activity
CLIVAR provides the expertise and framework to
design, implement, evaluate and efficiently utilize the
Climate Observing System.
Specific Examples
Frontier of Technology
* The Legacy of existing programs (e.g., TOGA and WOCE) includes a
focused
region climate observing system for El Nino, and
important portions of a global
climate observing system (e.g.,
Topex). However, ...
* The Climate Observing System requires global observations of many
state
variables that are presently not available at
sufficiently fine spatial and temporal
resolution.
* But many are within reach ...
Global Precipitation
Surface heat and water fluxes
Ground Water
Leaf Area Index
Albedo
* CLIVAR will work to implement and evaluate these new technologies, for
consideration in a Climate Observing System.
Develop methodology for doing climate variability
theory
so we can avoid common traps that act to hinder progress. Examples:
*
“It is in the model, therefore it is ...”
*
Inconsistencies between simulated and observed
phenomenon.
*
Insufficient model exploration to demonstrate explanation of
simulated phenomenon is indeed correct.
Elements for defining this methodology are rapidly falling into place.
Specific Examples
CLIVAR: Basic Science with immediate applications
* Improve understanding of sub-gridscale processes that are important
for climate, and the parameterization of these processes in climate
models. Examples include convection, gravity wave drag, ocean mixing)
* Advance the theory of climate predictability (e.g., initialization
techniques, methods of prediction)
* Application of these advances (e.g., EL Nino prediction and beyond)
CLIVAR provides the expertise and framework to
design, implement, evaluate and efficiently utilize the
Climate Observing System.
Frontier of Technology
* The Legacy of existing programs includes a focused region climate
o
observing system for El Nino, and important portions of
a global climate
observing system (e.g., Topex).
However, ...
* The Climate Observing System requires global observations of many
state
variables that are presently not available at
sufficiently fine spatial and temporal
resolution.
* But many are within reach ...
Global Precipitation
Surface heat and water fluxes
Ground Water
Leaf Area Index
Albedo
* CLIVAR will work to implement and evaluate these new technologies, for
consideration in a Climate Observing System.
Specific Examples
Improve the models used for projecting climate
change due to human activity
Predictability of Regional Climate Variations:
* Determine the relationship between regional and large-scale
circulation anomalies.
* Evaluate the predictability of the latter.
* Assess method of downscaling. Various methods include
empirical, nested models limited area models.
* Identify appropriate method (regionally dependent)
Determine the anatomy and predictability of the
long-lived anomalies that are observed
(e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation)
Specific Examples
Mechanisms for Past (paleo) Climates
Studies will lead to:
* A deeper understanding of the fundamental processes and
forcing responsible for today’s climate variability.
* Better high-end models for climate research.
* Appreciation for processes that enable large, abrupt
reconfiguration in the global climate system, like those in the
paleo record.
* Insight into the potential for future abrupt climate change. Are
there hidden surprises associated with increasing Greenhouse
gases?
Develop methodology for doing climate variability
theory
so we can avoid common traps that act to hinder progress. Examples:
*
“It is in the model, therefore it is ...”
*
Inconsistencies between simulated and observed
phenomenon.
*
Insufficient model exploration to demonstrate explanation of
simulated phenomenon is indeed correct.
Elements for defining this methodology are rapidly falling into place.