Psychology of Weather Prediction
• The psychological element is crucial. Must
strive to be mentally neutral about forecasts.
Think like Mr. Spock (or Data)
• In some ways, meteorologists are the last
people you want to be making forecasts,
because we love interesting weather and
tend to forecast it too frequently.
• Sometimes forecasters with great technical
knowledge have poor performance because
of psychological reasons!
Potentially Good Forecasters
Psychology of Weather Prediction
• When many things are happening at once,
meteorologists often focus on one of them
to the detriment of others.
• Humans like conceptual models and often
hold on to them even when reality is at
odds.
• Humans are deterministic animals and often
push uncertainty away when we shouldn’t.
Major Psychological Elements
• LOVE
Meteorologists love interesting weather and tend to overforecast it
• OVERCOMPENSATION
We tend to excessively compensate for previous error. This can
produce a classic sinusoidal error evolution.
• MACHO
There is a tendency to go for extreme or improbable situations. If
you hit, it is like meteorological cocaine high!
• INSECURE
Going with MOS or NWS forecast or fearing to deviate from
them substantially.
The Bottom Line
• Forecasting is very important and critically
affects people’s lives. It requires
professional detachment.
Understanding How Our
Customers Use Weather Forecasts
• Psychological studies are required to
understand how people interpret forecasts.
• How do we express predictions in a way to
maximize understanding and correct
response?
• A particular issue for probabilistic prediction
(UW Prof. Susan Joslyn of Psychology is
working on this)
Case in Point: Poor Icons
NWS Precipitation Icons
•Just as bad are their cloudiness icons…look at
mostly cloudy below……does that icon fit the
description? No, of course. And look at partly
cloudy…almost the same…both have the sun
out!!
•Also note that the POP is 20% on the right…no
chance of rain there…but there is one of course.
And a “slight” chance of freezing
drizzle reminds one of a trip to
Antarctica
Study by Professor Joslyn
and students
The Winner
New NWS Icons
New Icons
Getting the Correct Response
• Recently, excellent tornado forecasts in
Joplin, MI and other locations were unable
to stop massive deaths and injury…shows
the need for psychological studies.
• Forecasts were very skillful but folks are
not taking the correct actions.
• Also true with Hurricane Katrina.
Summary
• Making very skillful forecasts is only half
the battle.
• Just as important, and harder, is to get
society to pay attention and to respond
appropriately to save lives and property and
to secure maximum economic benefit.