The science, economics, equity
and politics of global warming
Bob Watson
Fleagle Lecture
University of Washington
Seattle
May 1, 2007
a
The science is robust
Don’t expect the problem
to go away
Climate Change
• Climate change is both a development and global
environmental issue, which undermines:
• environmental sustainability
• poverty alleviation and the livelihoods of the poor
• human health
• personal, national and regional security
• Climate change is an inter- and intra-generational
equity issue:
• developing countries and poor people in developing
countries are the most vulnerable
• the actions of today will affect future generations
because of the long life-times of the greenhouse
gases and the inertia within the climate system
Climate Change Resilient Development



Climate change resilient development requires
implementation of cost-effective mitigation and
adaptation strategies
It requires integrating considerations of current
climate variability and projected changes in climate in
sector and national economic planning – project and
policy design
While there is a need to minimize the emissions of
greenhouse gases, it must be recognized that access
to affordable energy in developing countries is a prerequisite condition for poverty alleviation and
sustainable economic growth –therefore, the
challenge is to develop and utilize cost-effective lowcarbon energy technologies (production and use)
Climate Change
• The composition of the atmosphere, and the
Earth’s climate has changed, mostly due to
human activities (highly certain), and is
projected to continue to change, globally and
regionally:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Increased greenhouse gases and aerosols
Warmer temperatures
Changing precipitation patterns – spatially and temporally
Higher sea levels – higher storm surges
Retreating mountain glaciers
Melting of the Greenland ice cap
Reduced arctic sea ice
More frequent extreme weather events
• heat waves, floods and droughts
• More intense cyclonic events, e,g., hurricanes in the Atlantic
Temperature Records
(Deviation from 1951- 1980 mean)
Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis
at data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Ice Melt in Greenland
Source: http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2005/
Andean Glaciers
Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/picture_gallery/05/sci_nat_how_the_world_is_changing/html/1.stm
Hurricane Trends
Source: Webster et al, SCIENCE 16 September 2005
Observed temperature change over
North America, Asia and Europe
Temperature change C
and model simulation with natural and man-made factors
1.0
North America
Asia
Europe
0.5
0
-0.5
1900
2000
observations
1900
Natural factors
2000
Natural + man
The Global Climate of the 21st Century
…and temperature
Source: IPCC, Climate Change, 2001
Some Areas are Projected to Become
Wetter, Others Drier
Annual Mean Precipitation Change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990
Recent Concerns


Compared to the IPCC TAR, there is greater clarity and reduced
uncertainty about the impacts of climate change
A number of increased concerns have arisen:
• Increased oceanic acidity likely to reduce the oceans capacity to
absorb carbon dioxide and effect the entire marine food chain
• A regional increase of 2.7oC above present (associated with a
temperature rise of about 1.5oC above today or 2oC above preindustrial level) could trigger a melting of the Greenland ice-cap
• Possible destabilization of the Antarctic ice sheets becomes
more likely above 3oC – the Larson B ice shelve is showing
signs of instability
• The North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation may slow down or
even shut down
Climate change is already affecting
natural and social systems
Why Climate Change is a Serious
Development Issue
All countries are vulnerable to climate change but the poorest
countries and the poorest people within them are most vulnerable.
They are the most exposed and have the least means to adapt.
People in
developing
countries are
affected at 20
times the rate
of those in
developed
countries
4,000
Number affected (Millions)
In this decade
over 3 billion
people in
developing
countries are
likely to be
affected by
climate related
disasters
3,000
Dev'ed
CIT
2,000
Dev'ing
LDC
1,000
-
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
Source: World Bank analysis based on CREDA data.
Climate variability is already a major
impediment to development
Ethiopia
25
20
15
10
5
0
%
0
-10
-15
-40
rainfall variability
-60
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
-20
1982
-5
-20
GDP growth
-25
Ag GDP growth
-80
-30
year
Preliminary results from : A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia
From Claudia Sadoff
Climate Change
Human-induced climate change is projected
to:

Decrease water availability and water quality in many aridand semi-arid regions – increased risk of floods and droughts
in many regions (the Stern Report concluded that the
fraction of land in extreme drought at any one time could
increase from 1% to 30%)

Decrease the reliability of hydropower and biomass
production in some regions

Increase the incidence of vector- (e.g., malaria and dengue)
and water-borne (e.g., cholera) diseases, as well as heat
stress mortality, threats nutrition in developing countries,
increase in extreme weather event deaths

Decrease agricultural productivity for almost any warming in
the tropics and sub-tropics and adverse impacts on fisheries

Adversely effect ecological systems, especially coral reefs,
and exacerbate the loss of biodiversity
Changes in available water
Source: Maarten de Wit and Jacek Stankiewicz, Science 31 March 2006,
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/figsonly/311/5769/1917
Crop yields are projected to decrease in the tropics
and sub-tropics, but increase at high latitudes
Percentage
change in average
crop yields for a
mid-range climate
change scenario
Even as soon as
2020 crop yields
in SSA and parts
of Asia are
projected to
decrease by up to
20%
Drivers of biodiversity loss growing
Consequences of Ecosystem
Change for Human Well-being
Climate Change and Conflict
• Tens of millions of people displaced


Low lying deltaic areas
Small Island States
• Food shortages where there is hunger and famine
today
• Water shortages in areas already with water shortages
• Natural resources depleted (e.g., coral reefs, forests),
loss of ecological goods and services
• Increased incidence of disease
• Increased incidence of severe weather events
Climate Change, coupled with other local
and global environmental issues can lead to
local and regional conflict
Mitigating Climate Change
The Economic and Financing
Challenge
What is Dangerous Anthropogenic
Interference with the Climate
System?
 Deciding what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic
interference to the climate system” is a value judgment
determined through socio-political processes informed by
scientific, technical and socio-economic information
 The basis for determining what constitutes “dangerous
anthropogenic interference” varies by region and sector and
depends upon:
•
the impacts of climate change, which depends on the
rate and magnitude of climate change, and
•
adaptive and mitigative capacity
Emissions Paths to Stabilization
Source: Stern Review
Projected Impacts of Climate
Change
Source: Stern Review
Largest Emitters: Developed &
Developing
The Stabilization Triangle
14
Billion of Tons of
Carbon Emitted
per Year
Easier CO2 target
~850 ppm
Stabilization
Triangle
Historical
emissions
7
O
Flat path
Interim Goals
O
2.0
0
1955
2005
2055
2105
Today and for the interim goals, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 1 tC/yr.
Developed Country Per capita Emissions far
Exceed Developing Country Per Capita Emissions
OECD and non-OECD shares
50-year view
+140%
+60%
+60%
-60%
SourceI Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p.56
GHG Flow Diagram: Global
Emissions
Source: WRI, Baumert et al, 2005
Potential technological options
• Efficient production and use of energy: coal plants (e.g., repowering old inefficient plants and developing IGCC); vehicles
(e.g., fuel cell cars) and reduced use of vehicles (e.g., mass transit
and urban planning), buildings, and industries
• Fuel shift: coal to gas
• Renewable Energy and Fuels: Wind power; solar PV and solar
thermal; small and large-scale hydropower; bio-energy
• CO2 Capture and Storage: Capture CO2 in the production of
electricity followed by geological storage (e.g., IGCC – CCS)
• Nuclear fission: Nuclear power
• Forests and Agricultural Soils: Reduced deforestation;
reforestation; afforestation; and conservation tillage
• Other GHGs: Methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons and
tropospheric ozone precursors
Costs of Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions relative to
sub-critical coal (life-cycle)
US$/ t-CO2
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Supercritical Coal
Geothermal
Nuclear
Large Hydro
Biomass Steam
Wind
CCGT
Small Hydro
CCS
IGCC
Solar Thermal
Solar PV
280 to 465
A key challenge is to reduce the cost of IGCC and CCS,
which are still pre-commercial
120
Baseline and low-carbon projected energy
scenarios for non-OECD countries
TWh
16000
TWh
12000
35000
wind
30000
hydro
25000
nuclear
20000
gas-cs
15000
gas
10000
oil
coal-cs
5000
0
2000
coal
2010
2020
2030
Baseline
2040
2050
wind
8000
hydro
4000
nuclear
gas-cs
0
-4000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
gas
oil
coal-cs
-8000
coal
-12000
-16000
Low carbon scenario
CO2 would stabilize at about 450 ppm in the low carbon scenario,
requiring an investment of ~$30 billion/year in electricity generation
Funding for mitigation activities
 Only three sources of funding for mitigation are available:
(i) voluntary actions,
(ii) international grants, e.g., GEF
(iii) carbon trading.
 Resource levels and funding strategies limit GEF’s ability to scale
up market transformation and bring-down capital costs of
technologies for shift to a low carbon economy - to play a
significant role in transitioning the world to a low-carbon economy
would require an increase in funds by a factor of ten or more
 Carbon trade is likely to confer the biggest flow of funds to
developing countries - between US$20 and $120 billion per year,
but requires a long-term global regulatory framework (i.e., a 2050
target) with differentiated responsibilities – with intermediate
targets - new business models are needed
 New financial instruments are required, especially to ensure
market continuity post 2012 - EU has sent a vital signal by
extending the time-frame of their carbon trading system
Summary of the Major Mitigation Challenges
 International policy
 A long-term (2030 – 2050) global regulatory framework,
involving all major emitters, with an equitable allocation of
responsibilities – with intermediate targets
 Kyoto plus 5 years will not provide the right signals to the
private sector or national governments
 Expand range of eligible CDM activities, including avoided
deforestation, green investment schemes, energy efficiency
standards, and exploring sectoral and programmatic approach
 Key challenges include engaging USA, China and India
 Opposition by some OECD countries to provide financial
assistance to rapidly developing countries, e.g.,China
 Adoption of low-carbon technologies with an emphasis
on energy efficiency, the commercialization of CCS and
second generation bio-fuels
• increase investment in public and private sector energy R&D
Adapting to Climate Change
Development Perspective on
Adaptation






The risks associated with a changing and more variable climate are
increasing (e.g., storms, floods, droughts), resulting in both economic
losses and loss of human life
Climate change is an additional risk in developing countries which are
already stressed, adversely impacting on water resources, agriculture,
human health, coastal zones and ecological systems
Poverty reduction agenda: Failure to adapt adequately to climate
variability and change is a major impediment to poverty reduction –
chronic losses are as important as catastrophic losses
Adaptation to climate change must be recognized as part of the
development process and not separate from it– adaptation is a process
A climate risk management approach: take account of the threats and
opportunities arising from both current and future climate variability in
project design
The process must be country driven and focus on national needs and local
priorities
Cost of Adaptation
 Estimates of the costs of inaction cover a huge range:
 $10Bs to $100Bs per year in developing countries by mid century
 GDP losses range up to about 10% for developing countries for a
doubling of atmospheric CO2
 A preliminary assessment shows that tens of billions dollars per
year of ODA & concessional finance investments are exposed to
climate risks
 Comprehensive project planning and additional investments to
climate-proof development projects will require at least $1 billion
per year
 Primary public financial instruments available, which are
technically adequate –but funds flowing through them need to be
substantially increased
 ODA – currently only a few percent directly for adaptation
 GEF special funds for adaptation – rising to c. $100M pa
 Adaptation Fund funded by a 2% tax on the CDM – < $100M pa

The political issue is who pays – industrialized or developing
countries
The Political Situation
The Kyoto Protocol
• All industrialized governments, except the US and Australia
have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which contains:
•
A commitment to reduce GHG emissions, on average, by
about 5% between 2008-2012 relative to 1990
•
The flexibility mechanisms – carbon trading
•
Land-use, land-use change and forestry activities (limited)
•
Funding mechanisms to assist developing countries
• The US stated that the Kyoto Protocol was flawed policy because
it was neither fair nor effective and not in the best interests of the
US
• scientific uncertainties – Article 3 (precautionary principle)
• high compliance costs – inconsistent with IPCC
• ineffective without the participation of the large developing
countries
Differentiated Obligations

It has argued by the US that the Kyoto Protocol is neither fair nor
effective because developing countries are not obligated to reduce
their emissions, i.e., its not in the self-interest of the US energy
companies
• Fairness - This is an equity issue - the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol
will have to decide what is fair and equitable, recognizing that:

about 80% of the total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse
gases have been emitted from industrialized countries (US is
currently about 25% of the global emissions – 36% of Annex I
emissions);
 per capita emissions in industrialized countries far exceed those
from developing countries;
 developing countries do not have the financial, technological and
institutional capability of industrialized countries to address the
issue; and
 increased use of energy is essential for poverty alleviation
• Effectiveness - Long-term stabilization of the atmospheric
concentration of greenhouse gases cannot be achieved without global
reductions, hence the issue is whom should do what in the short-term
recognizing the long-term challenge
Beyond Kyoto
•
Without the US taking real action to limit their GHG emissions it is
doubtful that there will be a second commitment period – some
OECD countries will withdraw and large developing countries, i.e.,
China and India will not be willing consider any commitments
•
Without a commitment of governments to limit GHG emissions
beyond 2012 (the end of the first commitment period) the carbon
market will remain soft and the private sector is unlikely to enter
in a meaningful manner
•
The real question for governments is whether to:
• set an emissions target for a second commitment period
(2013-2017) or whether to set a long-term stabilization
target for climate change (e.g., 2oC above the preindustrial level) or some other long-term framework –
a long-term target is needed to send the appropriate
signal to the private sector and the carbon market
• this would require a global emissions target – the challenge
would be to agree on intermediate emissions targets and an
equitable allocation of emissions rights
US Situation

No meaningful action by US Administration

Bipartisan draft legislation in Congress – House and Senate

State action – California and NE States

Evangelicals promoting action

Most Presidential candidates pro-action

Major multi-national companies adopting voluntary targets
Movement in the right direction, but a long way to go
Overall Conclusions


Increased access to energy is critical for poverty alleviation and economic
growth – hence a major challenge to engage China and India
Climate change undermines development, environmental sustainability
and the Millennium Development Goals

There are cost-effective and equitable solutions, but political will and
moral leadership is needed

The future is in our hands - we can limit changes in the Earth’s climate,
but the changes in policies, practices and technologies required are
substantial and not currently underway

Public amd private sector decision-makers need to take a longer-term
perspective

Advances in science and technology are required, with the emphasis on
multi-disciplinary research – S&T capacity must be strengthened in
developing countries

The scientific community needs to learn to communicate better with civil
society, decision-makers and the media
Directions for the World