How Can Engineering
Probability Help to Achieve
Sustainability ?
What is Sustainability?
 Traditional definition
 Policies and strategies that meet society’s present
needs without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs. (Brundtland
Commission, 1987)
 Public Policy Perspective
 Satisfaction of basic economic, social, and security
needs now and in the future without undermining
the natural resource base and environmental
quality[3].
Sustainability Concept
 Humans are integral part of the natural
world and nature must be preserved.
 Triple bottom line solutions
 Good for the environment
 Good for economics
 Good for society
Mental Models
Typical
business view
Society
ECONOMY
Sustainability
view
ENVIRONMENT
Society
Environment
Economy
Source: Bob Willard, The Sustainability Advantage.
Triple Bottom Line
 The triple bottom line for business is one that protects
the environment and improves the lives of the people
whom that environment interacts with.
 A measure of success in terms
of per capita, natural capital,
and profit.
 The 3 Pillars
 People
 Planet
 Profit
Triple Bottom Line
 People
 Fair practices for all people and does not exploit
interest of separate parties based on money, status
or growth.
 Planet
 Management of renewable and non renewable
resources while reducing waste.
 Profit
 Financial benefit enjoyed by the majority of society.
Sustainability and its Place in
Business
•Cost-savings
• Corporate image and
reputation
• Guidelines/directives from
upper management
• Impact of legislation (“must
do” factor)
Definition of Sustainability:
Two Views
 Ford: “A business model that seeks to create
value for stakeholders by preserving or
enhancing economic, environmental and
social capital.”
 Herman Miller: “Not doing business where it
will harm future generations”, with the head
of the Environmental Department adding
that it’s also: “something that’s
profitable….if we aren’t making money at
this, we will be out of business. And then we
won’t be doing anybody any good.”
Environmental Impact –
How bad is it?
How much waste do you think we
generate?
 as individuals?
 as a society?
 from industry?
How much CO2 do you think a
refrigerator produces?
How much impact do you think
computers have?
Other examples?
Example:
Refrigerator Impact
 In the course of its service life, an average three-star
refrigerator consumes roughly 5,000 kilowatt-hours and
produces about 2,400 kilograms of CO2 (a greenhouse
contributor).
 An assessment of the entire product line of a refrigerator ranging from the extraction of raw materials to the disposal
of the used product - shows that the lion’s share of this
energy (90 percent or more) is consumed during the
refrigerator's period of use.
Example: Computers &
Energy Consumption
 If the number of workstation computers
continues to grow as it has in the recent past,
a new power plant will have to be built every
five years in order to cover the increasing
electricity consumption in Germany.
 While the computer’s specific energy
consumption per processing transaction is
decreasing, this development is offset by the
greater computing power of the new
machines.
Today’s Material Flow
Approximately 25% of what goes ‘in the pipe’ comes out as
goods and services.
Natural
Resources
Source: World Resources Institute
Goods and
Services
Pollution, Waste
and Environmental
Disturbances
Tomorrow’s Material Flow
Reduce
Use of
Natural
Resources
Source: World Resources Institute
Recover
Technical
Nutrients
References
 [1] Garrett Hardin, ”The Tragedy of the Commons”, Science,
Vol. 162, No. 3859 (December 13, 1968), pp. 1243-1248.
 [2] epa.gov, nrel.gov
 [3] http://www.episodes.org/backissues/264/279-284.pdf,
http://www.groundwater.org/gi/contaminationconcerns.html
 [4] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_transport,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommuting
 [5] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel,
http://www.biodieselsustainability.com /,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy
References
 [6] http://rainforests.mongabay.com/1010.htm,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logging,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pulp
 [7] http://www.sustainablefish.org/,
http://marinebio.org/Oceans/Conservation/sustainablefisheries.asp
 [8] http://www.epa.gov/ord/lrp/research/landfill.htm,
http://www.wm.com/, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landfill
 [9] http://www.usgbc.org/, http://www.greenbuilding.com/,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_building,
http://www.carbonsmart.com/carboncopy/2009/03/leedbreeam-and-green-star-joining-forces.html
Engineering Probability Tools
 Descriptive Statistics
 Probability Distributions
 Data Collection/Sampling
 Statistical Estimation
 Hypothesis Testing
 Regression and
Analysis of Variance
Engineering Probability
Approach to Sustainability
For a given topic, students should be able to address
the following questions:
 What are the issues that impact sustainability?
What is currently known about these issues?
 What knowledge is needed to better understand
how to achieve sustainability?
What are potential factors and research questions?
 What data are needed?
What are practical issues for collecting these data?
 How can probability and statistics tools be used to
analyze the data?
Example:
Groundwater Sustainability
 50% of the U.S. depends on groundwater for daily
drinking water.
 Sustainability Issues:
Maintaining
groundwater levels
Keeping groundwater
free of contaminants
[3]
Groundwater Sustainability
What is currently known about groundwater levels?
 Climate change is primarily quantified by a rise in the
Earth’s near-surface air temperature.
 The rise in temperature will cause glaciers, ice sheets,
and snowcaps to melt, causing added runoff into
oceans.
 The runoff into oceans will increase sea level.
 The primary sources of fresh water (glaciers, etc.) will
be reduced.
 Fresh ground water supplies at coasts could be
contaminated by salt water from oceans.
Groundwater Sustainability
What are sources of groundwater contamination?
 Surface water contamination and runoff.
 Combined sewer/stormwater systems that overflow
during significant storm events.
 Malfunctioning or leaking septic systems, lagoon
systems, centralized wastewater treatment systems.
How does nature prevent contamination?
 Native shrubs, perennials, flowers absorb water and
filter out contaminants.
 Trees, shrubs, and grasses can form buffers to protect
clean water sources.
Groundwater Sustainability
What knowledge is needed? Potential factors?
 Can we detect potential sources of contamination?
Monitor fresh water supplies.
 Can we mimic nature?
Study porous pavements (e.g., Cowboys Stadium).
 Can we develop a cost-effective desalination
process to convert salt water to fresh water?
Study existing desalination processes and costs.
 Can we avoid sewer/stormwater system overflows?
Study the causes of combined sewer/stormwater
overflow.
Groundwater Sustainability
Data? Issues?
 To monitor fresh water supplies, collect field data.
Issues: There a lot of places to monitor. Need to
specify the metrics to quantify water quality.
 To study porous pavements, collect data on the
permeability of various pavements and their ability
to filter out contaminants.
Issues: Need to specify runoff conditions, such as the
amount and the level/type of contamination.
Groundwater Sustainability
Data? Issues?
 To study desalination, collect data on the energy
needs of various processes.
Issues: It may be difficult to gain access to data.
Need to specify the salinity of the influent water.
 To study sewer/stormwater system overflows, collect
data on storm events and overflow.
Issues: Need to specify the metrics used to describe a
“storm event” (e.g., amount or rate of precipitation)
and the severity of an overflow (e.g., amount or
rate). Need to be able to measure these metrics.
Groundwater Sustainability
How can probability and statistics tools be used to
analyze the data?
 Use plots to track water quality.
 Use two-sample tests to study different pavements,
such as two-sample tests on filtration percentages.
 Develop a regression relationship between the cost
of desalination and the salinity of influent water.
 Fit probability distributions to storm event data.
Estimate the probability of such events leading to
combined sewer/stormwater system overflows.
Topic 1:
Transportation Systems
 Emissions from vehicles have been cited as major
contributors to greenhouse gases and land use.
 Sustainability Issues:
Air pollution
Land use
Telecommuting
[4]
Transportation Systems
What is currently known?
 Public transportation consumes less energy and uses
land more efficiently than private transportation.
 Public transportation is accessible to all members of
society.
 Public transportation encourages cities to grow more
compactly.
 Telecommuting replaces the daily work commute
with telecommunication links.
 Adding HOV lanes reduces vehicle traffic.
Transportation Systems
How do transportation systems impact pollution?
 Vehicle emissions are one of the leading contributors
to air pollution.
 Adding HOV lanes reduces vehicle traffic.
 Under-utilized public transportation systems fail to
reduce vehicle traffic.
 Idling, acceleration, and deceleration of vehicles
contributes higher emissions per mile traveled.
 Cars are most fuel efficient at 40-60 mph.
 Disposal of old vehicles is not sustainable.
Topic 2:
Cleaner Energy
 Alternative energy sources are critically important for
curbing greenhouse gas emissions and creating a
more independent energy economy.
 Sustainability Issues:
Renewable energy
Electric vehicles
Biodiesel
[5]
Cleaner Energy
What is currently known?
 Our present fuel resources are mostly made up of
fossil fuels, which are not considered renewable.
(The world’s consumption of fossil fuels is 100,000
times faster than their natural production.)
 The combustion of fossil fuels releases air pollutants.
 Renewable energy sources are naturally renewable,
such as solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal.
 In 2010, only a small portion of electricity generation,
about 18%, was from renewables.
 Renewables have high variation and higher cost.
Cleaner Energy
What are alternatives for vehicles?
 Biodiesel is a mixture of diesel and biomass from
plant oils, animal fats and even recycled grease,
and can reduce vehicle emissions of greenhouse
gases by 75%, but the cost-effectiveness of biodiesel
processes is still unclear.
 Diesel vehicles can directly use biodiesel blends
without any engine modifications.
 Battery electric cars have zero tail pipe emissions,
but their battery storage still needs improvement.
 Hybrid gas-electric cars can improve fuel-efficiency,
but require special engines.
Topic 3:
Logging
 The U.S., with less than 5%of the world's population,
consumes 17% of the world's output of timber and is
the third largest importer of tropical timber.
 Sustainability Issues:
Deforestation
Forest biodiversity
Pulp/paper production
[6]
Logging
What is currently known?
 The forest products industry is a large part of the
economies in developed and developing countries.
 Wood is considered a renewable resource.
 The primary material for making paper is wood pulp.
Alternatives include recycled pulp and field crop
fiber.
 Wood is also used for construction and is hard to
replace.
Logging
What is known about deforestation?
 Deforestation is one the major contributors to global
warming.
 Deforestation disturbs the water cycle (i.e., rainfall)
and increases soil erosion.
 Reforestation replenishes forests, but can diminish
biodiversity.
 Tropical deforestation is still a problem. The restriction
of trade in certain species is enabled by listing with
CITES(the Convention on International Trade in
Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna), but
this is still controversial.
Topic 4:
Fisheries
 The global fishing fleet is estimated to be 250% larger
than what the ocean can sustainably produce.
 Sustainability Issues:
Overfishing
Ocean conservation
Food supply
[7]
Fisheries
What is currently known?
 Fish currently supply the greatest percentage of the
world's protein consumed by humans.
 Seafood guides help consumers make informed
choices.
 Fish farming, an alternative to sea fishing needs more
development.
 Management of ocean ecosystems as a whole is
needed, including prohibiting fishing in certain zones.
 Management requires communication between
national governments and markets.
Fisheries
What is known about overfishing?
 Depleted fish stocks can be restored only if the
species' ecosystem remains intact.
 Overfishing disturbs the life cycle (food web) of
aquatic flora and fauna.
 Overfishing and by-catches made during fishing
may result in depletion of certain species, leading to
possible extinction and a reduced food supply for
predators.
 Advanced technologies have contributed to
overfishing.
Topic 5:
Waste Management
 In 2006, U.S. residents, businesses, and institutions
produced approximately 4.6 pounds of waste per
person per day.
 Sustainability Issues:
Landfills
Recycling
Bioreactors
[8]
Waste Management
What is currently known?
 Reuse, recycle, reduce, recover.
 Landfill mining and reclamation (LFMR) is a process
whereby solid wastes that have previously been
landfilled are excavated and processed.
 Landfills are monitored to minimize groundwater
contamination.
 Methane from landfills is a natural energy source.
 The decomposition of plastics takes about 1000 years.
 Landfills occupy land that could be used for other
purposes.
Waste Management
What are bioreactors?
 Bioreactors use moisture to enhance the waste
degradation process, but more research is needed to
design safe bioreactor landfills.
 Different biological process are performed to
decompose different types of waste.
 Different types of waste (e.g., recyclables, food,
textiles, drugs, e-waste) can be treated more
efficiently if separated, but this is a difficult to achieve
in practice.
Topic 6:
Green Building
 Buildings account for a large amount of land use,
energy and water consumption, and air and
atmosphere alteration.
 Sustainability Issues:
Environmental Impact
Life Cycle Cost
Sustainable Design
[9]
Green Building
What is currently known?
 Green building typically costs more to implement,
but costs less to maintain, and is more economical
over the entire life cycle (cradle-to-grave).
 There are already many green building guides (e.g.,
LEED in U.S., BREEAM in U.K., Green Star in Australia).
 Green building uses non-toxic recycled materials
and rapidly renewable plants (like bamboo), and
seeks to reduce waste during construction.
Green Building
What are the impacts of green building?
 Reduced energy usage via solar energy, insulation,
high-efficiency windows, natural lighting/shading.
 Reduced water usage via on-site water treatment or
a greywater system for irrigation.
 Better indoor air quality improves human health.
 Reduced waste generation.