Findings from a Statewide Survey of 407 Likely Voters
in West Virginia
Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Alex Dunn
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
LakeResearch.com
202.776.9066
Methodology
•
Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey that was
conducted by telephone using professional interviewers. The survey reached
a total of 407 likely 2014 General Election voters in West Virginia. The survey
was conducted June 12th through June 16th, 2013. The margin of error for
this poll is +/- 4.9%.
•
Telephone numbers for the sample were generated from a file of registered
voters. The sample was stratified geographically to reflect the expected
turnout of voters in the 2014 General Election. The data were weighted
slightly by gender, age, education, party identification, and region.
•
In interpreting survey results, all sample surveys are subject to possible
sampling error – that is, the results of a survey may differ from those that
would be obtained if the entire population were interviewed. The size of the
sampling error depends upon both the total number of respondents in the
survey and the percentage distribution of responses to a particular question.
For example, if a response to a given question which all respondents
answered was 50%, we could be 95% confident that the true percentage
would fall within plus or minus 4.9% of this percentage, or between 45.1%
and 54.9%.
2
Key Findings
• West Virginians also want to see the revenue derived from their
natural resources dedicated to the benefit of their communities.
• A new “Future Fund” that promotes economic development
generates widespread enthusiasm and very little opposition from
West Virginia voters. Majorities of voters from across the political
spectrum, and from every region of the state, favor the Future Fund
and by commanding margins.
• Similarly, voters favor raising the coal tax by an impressive 50-point
margin. Half of all likely voters support the proposal strongly.
• Support for this proposal is not only broad and deep—it is
remarkably resilient; voters rate the standard range of coal industry
scare tactics with only lukewarm potency and, more important,
overall support for increasing the coal tax never wavers.
3
The Political and Economic Context
Voters are quite upbeat about the various mainstream coal
alternatives tested, including natural gas, clean coal, and
renewables, like wind and solar energy. Strong majorities
also support fully enforcing the Clean Water Act, despite
their more generalized skepticism of the EPA.
Voters register high levels of dissatisfaction with the state of West
Virginia’s economy, and in particular their own local economy.
Economic Ratings for...
Your Local Economy*
-30
West Virginia’s Economy*
-51
65
75
35
24
33
28
4
Excellent/Good
6
Just Fair/Poor
Excellent/Good
Just Fair/Poor
5
*Asked of ½ the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity.
And how would you rate [the local economy / the economy] in [your part of the state / West Virginia] – excellent, good, just fair, or poor?
The coal industry retains a broadly popular profile. The Clean Water Act
shows remarkable appeal as a vehicle for environmental protection.
Favorability Ratings: Actors and Institutions
Unfavorable
The coal industry
The Clean Water Act
West Virginia coal companies*
Coal companies*
Your member of Congress
The multi-national coal industry
Shelley Moore Capito
Barack Obama
The Environmental Protection Agency*
The EPA
Favorable
14
55
8
52
21 10 34
24 9 29
12 5 27
13 8 26
20 13 26
53
42 25
38
18 23
45
27 21
80
77
70
70
79
63
54
45
51
47
*Asked of ½ the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity.
Now I'd like to ask you about some public figures, organizations, and issues. For each, please tell me whether you have a VERY favorable,
SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression. If you have heard of the person, organization, or issue but do
not know enough to have an impression or if you haven’t heard of it, just say so, and we will move on.
Net
NO/NH
+66
5
+69
+49
+46
+34
15
9
7
14
+50
+34
24
27
-8
+13
3
11
+2
8
6
All of the coal alternatives tested are highly popular in West Virginia.
There appears to be little political benefit in describing green energy
sources as “clean” versus “renewable”.
Favorability Ratings: Energy Sources
Unfavorable
Favorable
NO/NH
+82
4
7
53
15 7
52
79
+65
6
12 5
51
79
+67
10
Clean energy, like wind and solar*
16 7
50
78
+62
6
Wind power
15 8
46
76
+61
10
-8
14
Natural gas
Renewable energy, like wind and solar*
Clean coal
Mountaintop removal coal mining
47
29 17
89
Net
39
*Asked of ½ the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity.
Now I'd like to ask you about some public figures, organizations, and issues. For each, please tell me whether you have a VERY favorable,
SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression. If you have heard of the person, organization, or issue but do
not know enough to have an impression or if you haven’t heard of it, just say so, and we will move on.
7
For the most part, West Virginians assess the environmental quality of their state
and region as fairly stable, though relatively few believe the quality of the
environment has improved.
Quality of the Environment in...
Your Part of the State*
West Virginia*
58
21
Gotten Better
50
20
Stayed About the
Same
Gotten Worse
26
Gotten Better
19
Stayed About the
Same
Gotten Worse
*Asked of ½ the sample.
Overall, do you think the quality of the environment in [your part of the state / West Virginia] has gotten better, stayed about the same, or gotten
worse?
8
West Virginians overwhelmingly favor enforcing the Clean Water Act. Notably,
voters demonstrate the same intensity of support for fully enforcing the Clean
Water Act to safeguard West Virginia waterways from coal mining as can be seen
without direct reference to coal mining.
Fully Enforcing the Clean Water Act
To Safeguard Streams, Rivers, Lakes
from Coal Mining
To Safeguard Streams, Rivers, Lakes
74
70
+63
+64
57
57
10
7
7
4
Favor
Oppose
Favor
*Asked of ½ the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity.
And would you favor or oppose fully enforcing the Clean Water Act to safeguard streams, rivers, and lakes in West Virginia [from coal mining], or
aren’t you sure?
Oppose
9
Posing a forced choice between emphasizing the development of renewable
energy and the production of more oil, gas, and coal uncovers the risks of an
impatient approach to energy transition in West Virginia. Voters favorable to new,
sustainable energy opportunities, but pressuring them to decide between those
opportunities and the industry they know leaves advocates in a losing position.
West Virginia’s Energy Future
And when it comes to West
Virginia’s energy future, which of
the following statements comes
closer to your view?
Statement A: (Some people/
other people) say West Virginia
should emphasize the
development of renewable
energy, such as wind and solar
power.
Statement B: (some people/
other people) say West Virginia
should emphasize production of
more oil, gas, and coal supplies.
-6
42
31
Renewable Energy
48
40
8
Fossil Fuels
Don't Know
10
And when it comes to West Virginia’s energy future, which of the following statements comes closer to your view?
An approach that calls for beginning to rely less on coal jobs in order to diversify West
Virginia’s economy draws majority support and leads a fossil fuel-only strategy by a doubledigit margin. Emphasizing the term diversification helps assuage concerns that the effort is
merely a disguised assault on the extractive industries and its associated jobs.
West Virginia’s Economic Future
55
+16
54
41
39
40
31
Diversified
Coal Economy
Energy Economy*
+13
43
5
Don't Know
Statement A*: (Some people/ other people) say West
Virginia should begin the transition into a more diversified
energy economy that relies less on coal jobs.
Diversified
Economy*
35
Coal Economy
5
Don't Know
Statement A*: (Some people/ other people) say West
Virginia should begin the transition into a more
diversified economy that relies less on coal jobs.
Statement B: (some people/ other people) say West Virginia should emphasize production of more oil, gas and coal
supplies.
11
*Asked of ½ the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity.
And when it comes to West Virginia’s economic future, which of the following statements comes closer to your view?
Additionally, voters say they are less likely to back elected officials who attempt
to reduce such regulations, and more likely to favor officials who want to
increase them. This is a divisive issue that lacks a clear consensus, however.
Likelihood to Support Elected Officials in Favor of...
Reducing Environmental Regulations
42
Increasing Environmental Regulations
41
34
29
15
More Likely
24
23
23
Less Likely
More Likely
Less Likely
*Asked of ½ the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity.
Suppose an elected official were in favor of [reducing/increasing] environmental regulations on coal mining? Would that make you more or less
likely to support that elected official, or wouldn’t it make any difference?
12
Support for the Future Fund and Raising the Coal Tax
This electorate is poised to embrace an increase in West
Virginia’s coal tax in order to fund economic development
projects, infrastructure projects, and education and worker
training programs. Majorities of every major subgroup—by
party, gender, age, education level, and region (including
coal country)—favors this proposal and with visible
intensity.
The Future Fund is highly popular, outpacing opposition by nearly a 7:1 margin.
Intensity of support is also noteworthy. Specifying that the funds would subsidize
education, public safety, and land conservation generates slightly more enthusiasm
than confining the measure to infrastructure projects only.
West Virginia Future Fund
Education, Public Safety &
Land Conservation*
Infrastructure Projects*
69
41
71
+57
12
18
45
8
Favor
Oppose
+59
11
16
6
Undecided
Favor
Oppose
Undecided
*Asked of ½ the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity.
On another topic, oil and natural gas companies currently pay a tax of about 4.4% of the value of the oil and gas they extract in West Virginia. This
money is used in West Virginia's General Fund and Infrastructure Fund, and some of it is sent back to the counties where the resources came from.
There is a proposal to use a portion of this money to create the "West Virginia Future Fund," which would be designated solely for the purpose of
economic development [and infrastructure projects/education, public safety, and land conservation projects], especially for oil and gas-producing
counties and municipalities. Do you favor or oppose this proposal, or are you undecided?
14
Support for raising West Virginia’s coal tax to fund economic development,
infrastructure, education and job training in the state is remarkable not just in its
breadth (nearly seven in ten voters favor the increase), but in its intensity as well.
Initial Ballot: Raise Coal Tax by 1%
69
+51
50
19
11
11
Favor
Oppose
Undecided
15
Coal companies pay a similar tax of about 6.5% on the right to mine coal in West Virginia. There is a proposal to increase this tax by 1% and use the
additional money for economic development projects, infrastructure projects, and education and worker training programs, especially in the West
Virginia counties and municipalities where the coal is extracted. Do you favor or oppose this proposal, or are you undecided?
Initial Ballot Contours
Total
Raising the coal tax
generates
impressive support
across the board.
Republicans and
Democrats back the
tax at equal levels,
though work
remains to be done
with independents,
who are slightly
more skeptical.
Voters with a direct
connection to the
coal industry are
even more likely to
favor the increase.
19
Oppose
Men (48%)
Women (52%)
20
17
Favor
69
67
72
Und
+51
11
+47
+54
12
11
+62
+42
9
13
Under 50 (44%)
50 and over (56%)
14
22
Non-college graduate (63%)
College graduate (36%)
20
16
68
72
+48
+56
11
12
Democrats (40%)
Independents (19%)
Republicans (35%)
18
24
17
72
74
+54
+34
+58
10
16
8
Charleston/ Huntington (27%)
South (22%)
North (26%)
Central/ East (25%)
19
21
18
17
70
72
69
69
+51
+51
+50
+51
11
7
13
14
CD-01 (36%)
CD-02 (34%)
CD-03 (30%)
17
18
21
67
71
70
+50
+53
+50
15
10
8
Coal household (26%)
Non-coal household (72%)
18
19
72
68
+55
+49
10
12
64
58
76
Net
16
Coal companies pay a similar tax of about 6.5% on the right to mine coal in West Virginia. There is a proposal to increase this tax by 1% and use the
additional money for economic development projects, infrastructure projects, and education and worker training programs, especially in the West
Virginia counties and municipalities where the coal is extracted. Do you favor or oppose this proposal, or are you undecided?
Presenting voters with context—that other coal states impose a markedly higher
effective tax rate of 11% on coal—leaves support (and opposition) virtually
unchanged. Despite expectations for positive movement as a result of this
information, support may already be at or very near its ceiling in this electorate.
Informed Ballot: Raise Coal Tax 1%
68
50
+48
20
11
12
Favor
Oppose
Undecided
As you may know, states like Wyoming with similar coal industries have effective tax rates of approximately 11% of the value of the coal extracted from
their land. Knowing that, do you favor or oppose the proposal to increase West Virginia’s 6.5% coal extraction tax by 1% and use the additional money
for economic development projects, infrastructure projects, and education and worker training programs, especially in the West Virginia counties and
municipalities where the coal is extracted, or are you undecided?
17
Message and Positioning
Any messaging in favor of a Future Fund or adjustment to
the coal tax should be framed in terms of the benefits to
West Virginians—particularly where infrastructure, like
roads and schools, or additional funding for higher
education is part of the package. Additionally, provisions for
stricter enforcement of Clean Water Act protections for the
state’s waterways should be highlighted. The attacks on
diversification raise some concerns, but only with relatively
isolated segments of the electorate.
Infrastructure and higher education investments hold clear sway over West
Virginians’ economic priorities, trumping other ideas like offering new small
business incentives, funding tourism projects, creating new renewable energy job
training programs, and promoting clean coal.
Top-Tier Priorities for West Virginia’s Economic Future
Investing in infrastructure like roads and
schools*
Investing in higher education like
universities and community colleges*
Mean
46
72
41
65
82
79
Offering new tax incentives to encourage
small business and innovation*
36
Investing in West Virginia’s tourism
industry*
35
56
76
Creating new job training programs in the
renewable energy sector
33
55
73
30
56
75
Promoting the use of clean coal*
*Asked of ½ the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity.
100: Very Important
59
75
80-100: Important
19
Now, I am going to read you some priorities for West Virginia’s economic future. On a scale of 0 to 100, where 100 is very important and 0 is not
important at all, please tell me how important each one is in your own mind. If you don't know how important a priority is, just say so and we'll go on.
On a scale of 0 to 100, please tell me how important this priority is for West Virginia’s future.
Investing specifically in renewable energy, energy efficiency programs, and
power plant modernization all rank lower in the spectrum of economic priorities
for most West Virginians.
Second-Tier Priorities for West Virginia’s Economic Future
Investing in renewable energy sources*
29
Investing in renewable energy manufacturing*
24
Offering new tax incentives for expenses related
to making homes and commercial buildings more
energy-efficient*
23
Offering new tax incentives for utility companies
so they can modernize power plants that don’t
meet current environmental standards*
23
Offering new tax incentives for companies that
specialize in solar and wind energy, or in making
parts for windmills and solar panels*
22
*Asked of ½ the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity.
100: Very Important
Mean
51
46
41
34
37
72
67
64
61
61
80-100: Important
20
Now, I am going to read you some priorities for West Virginia’s economic future. On a scale of 0 to 100, where 100 is very important and 0 is not
important at all, please tell me how important each one is in your own mind. If you don't know how important a priority is, just say so and we'll go on.
On a scale of 0 to 100, please tell me how important this priority is for West Virginia’s future.
Safeguarding West Virginia’s streams and rivers outshines a slate of other
environmental priorities; in fact, increasing existing protections attracts nearly
equal enthusiasm. Very few voters view undoing coal regulations as a solution.
Priorities for West Virginia’s Environmental Future
46
Protecting West Virginia's streams and rivers
Strengthening protections for West Virginia’s
streams and rivers
26
Investing in mine reclamation and
redevelopment
24
Loosening EPA restrictions on coal mining
Each asked of ½ the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity.
68
41
Ending mountaintop removal mining
Removing EPA restrictions on coal mining
Mean
65
13
45
31
67
55
26
100: Very Important
82
59
38
17
80
49
80-100: Important
21
Next, I am going to read you some priorities for West Virginia’s environmental future. On a scale of 0 to 100, where 100 is very important and 0 is not
important at all, please tell me how important each one is in your own mind. If you don't know how important a priority is, just say so and we'll go on.
On a scale of 0 to 100, please tell me how important this priority is for West Virginia’s future.
Restoring America’s tradition of innovation and leadership on energy by
embracing a diverse mix of coal, wind, and solar is the leading reason to support
a broader energy economy in West Virginia. Keeping mercury out of the air and
water, creating new jobs, and promoting cost savings through energy efficiency
all show similar appeal.
Positive Messages
Mean
33
Restoring America's Leadership
Public Health
30
Economic Boon - Efficiency
30
Economic Boon - Jobs
29
Efficiency - All of the Above
28
Restoring West Virginia's Leadership
27
49
45
42
6.5
6.1
6.2
48
46
40
6.2
6.4
6.0
Efficiency - Renewables Only
21
35
5.5
MTR Destruction
21
34
5.4
Each asked of ½ the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity.
10: Very Convincing
8-10: Convincing
Now, I'm going to read you [some/some other types of] statements people have made about West Virginia’s economic future. Please tell me whether
each statement, assuming it is true, is a convincing reason to support a expanding West Virginia’s energy economy to include other energy sources in
addition to coal, on a scale from 0 to 10, where 10 means it is a VERY CONVINCING reason, 0 means it is a NOT AT ALL convincing reason, and you can be
anywhere in between. If you are not sure how you feel about a particular item, please say so. Here’s the first one.
22
Economic Diversification Messages
[RESTORING AMERICA’S LEADERSHIP]
When it comes to energy, it’s time for America to lead once again. We must restore our proud tradition of
innovation and leadership, starting with pioneering energy solutions like wind and solar, right here in West
Virginia. This will jumpstart our economy, creating good-paying American jobs that can’t be outsourced and
leaving a state that works for our children and grandchildren.
[PUBLIC HEALTH]
Investing in new energy sources alongside coal will make West Virginia healthier. By increasing our
investment in clean energy like solar and wind, we’re reducing mercury and other dangerous emissions that
end up in our air and water. This will help relieve asthma in our children and seniors, and decrease heart
attacks and cancer across the state. It’s the smart thing to do for West Virginia families.
[ECONOMIC BOON – EFFICIENCY]
Coal’s not going anywhere anytime soon. But that shouldn’t stop us from investing in West Virginia’s future,
creating the infrastructure we need to keep our place as America’s energy hub. Coal jobs are dwindling, but
renewable energy jobs are on the rise. These are good-paying middle class jobs that can’t be shipped
overseas. And more clean energy keeps our workforce healthier and more productive, and reduces health
care costs for the average West Virginia family.
[ECONOMIC BOON – JOBS]
Coal’s not going anywhere anytime soon. But that shouldn’t stop us from investing in West Virginia’s future,
creating the infrastructure we need to keep our place as America’s energy hub. Coal jobs are dwindling, but
renewable energy jobs are on the rise. These are good-paying middle class jobs that can’t be shipped
overseas. In fact, on average, there are already more jobs nationwide in renewables than oil OR coal,
including hundreds of thousands of new jobs across the country.
23
Economic Diversification Messages (continued)
[EFFICIENCY – ALL OF THE ABOVE]
By investing in energy innovation for West Virginia communities, we can not only create jobs and economic
opportunity, we can streamline our energy use and keep more of our paychecks every month. A modern energy
approach starts with making buildings more energy-efficient, cutting back on water consumption, and reducing
our utility bills by using a more diverse mix of energy, including coal, solar, and wind.
[RESTORING WEST VIRGINIA’S LEADERSHIP]
When it comes to energy, it is time for West Virginia to lead once again. We must restore our proud tradition of
innovation and leadership, starting with pioneering energy solutions like wind and solar, right here in West
Virginia. This will jumpstart our economy, creating good-paying American jobs that can’t be outsourced, and
leaving a state that works for our children and grandchildren.
[EFFICIENCY – RENEWABLES ONLY]
By transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy production in West Virginia communities, we can not only
create jobs and economic opportunity, we can also streamline our energy use and keep more of our paychecks
every month. A modern energy approach starts with making buildings more energy-efficient, cutting back on
water consumption, and reducing our utility bills by using a more diverse mix of energy, including solar and wind.
[MTR DESTRUCTION]
Investing in new energy sources alongside coal will make West Virginia a far safer and healthier place. The current
focus on mountaintop removal just means more threats to our communities from rockslides, catastrophic floods,
and pollution of our rivers and air–all costing taxpayers millions. By increasing our investment in clean energy like
solar and wind, we can save millions of dollars, safeguard thousands of miles of land and rivers slated for
destruction, and protect our health.
24
None of the messages attacking a diversified energy economy registers as much
intensity (or reach) as our positives. Budgetary concerns and the fear of job
losses create some doubts, though explicitly referencing the alleged “War on
Coal” may actually weaken the argument.
Opposition Messages
20
Budget Tradeoff
Job Creator
Job Creator with War on Coal
Utility Costs and Energy Independence
Each asked of ½ the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity.
Mean
32
17
15
12
10: Serious Doubts
26
22
23
5.3
4.7
4.3
4.5
8-10: Some to Serious Doubts
Now, I'm going to read you [some/some other types of] statements people have made about West Virginia’s economic future. Please tell me whether
each statement, assuming it is true, raises doubts in your own mind about expanding West Virginia’s energy economy to include other energy sources in
addition to coal, on a scale from 0 to 10, where 10 means it raises serious doubts, 0 means it raises no doubts, and you can be anywhere in between. If
you are not sure how you feel about a particular item, please say so. Here’s the first one.
25
Anti-Diversification Messages
[BUDGET TRADEOFF]
West Virginia’s budget is underwater, with deep, across-the-board cuts already planned for most agencies,
including cuts to vital programs like higher education, senior services, and domestic violence and sex abuse
programs. Taking even more taxpayer dollars out of West Virginia’s General Fund and highway fund to
create expensive new government programs with no track record is the wrong thing to do in this economy.
[JOB CREATOR]
For more than 100 years, coal has provided the economic foundation for our state’s economy. Today, coal
generates nearly 100,000 jobs and $6 billion each year in West Virginia alone. Raising taxes on our state’s
biggest industry will just cost more jobs, hurt our middle class, and raise energy costs when hard-working
West Virginia families are already struggling to put food on the table.
[JOB CREATOR WITH WAR ON COAL]
For more than 100 years, coal has provided the economic foundation for our state’s economy. Today, coal
generates nearly 100,000 jobs and $6 billion each year in West Virginia alone. And even though it’s cleaner
than ever, Obama and the EPA have declared a war on coal. What they don’t understand is that raising taxes
on our state’s biggest industry will cost more jobs, hurt our middle class, and raise energy costs when hardworking West Virginia families are already struggling to put food on the table.
[UTILITY COSTS AND ENERGY INDEPENDENCE]
Coal provides us with some of the lowest electricity costs in the country. It boosts our energy independence,
helping free America from its dependence on foreign oil. And even though coal is cleaner than ever, West
Virginia coal miners are still under attack by new job-killing taxes and regulations. It’s time for America to
become a leader in energy once again, and that’s not going to happen by undermining our cheapest, most
reliable domestic energy source.
26
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
LakeResearch.com
202.776.9066
Celinda Lake
clake@lakeresearch.com
Daniel Gotoff
dgotoff@lakeresearch.com
Alex Dunn
adunn@lakeresearch.com