Nuclear Power for
Remote Alaska Locations
AAEP Lunch 19 October 2005
Steve Colt
UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research
Overview
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•
•
•
•
•
Context
Galena study framework
Galena results
Extension to other communities
Extension to mine sites
Economic considerations going
forward
Evolution of Conversion Devices
Source: Smil 1994
Changing Mix of U.S.
Primary Energy “Sources”
Circa 1992
Turning to Alaska—
Primary energy consumption per
Alaskan
Primary
perper
Alaskan
barrels Energy
oil per Input
person
year
Barrels of Oil per Year
80
70
Wood and all other
60
Other petroleum
Jet Fuel
50
Gasoline
40
Diesel
30
Hydro
20
Coal
10
Natural Gas
Alaska
Gas
Network
PCE
places
Other
Final energy consumption per Alaskan
barrels oil per person per year
Final Energy Consumption per Alaskan
Barrels of Oil per Year
80
70
Jet air transportation
60
Other transportation
50
Industrial
40
Oil/propane/wood direct
30
Natural gas direct
20
generation losses
10
Electricity
Alaska
Gas
Network
PCE
places
Other
Electricity Cost per kWh
30
30
cents per kWh
25
20
15
10
10
5
0
Anchorage
PCE Places
Potential Requirements of Large
Mine
• Donlin Creek Example:
60 MW average load
= 526 million kWh per yr
= 35 million gallons of diesel @15kWh/gal
= 700,000 drums
• Plus rolling stock energy needs……
Galena Electric Power Study
• Requested by City of Galena
• Funded by DOE Arctic Energy Office
• Consider all reasonable options for
meeting electric power needs – utility
perspective
• Multidisciplinary study team:
–
–
–
–
Bob Chaney, SAIC
Ron Johnson, Richard Weiss, UAF engineering
Steve Colt, UAA/ISER, economics
Greg White, INEEL, environmental /permitting
Galena Study Framework
• Compare total system cost to City over 30
yrs @ 4% real discount rate
• Express results as $/kWh cost of service
• Focus on electric utility needs:
– 1.8 MW peak
– 11,000 MWh per yr
• Consider other uses of power:
source of load
Utility electricity
Existing city heating loop
Residential space heating
Greenhouse
Air station heat
Total energy requirements at power plant
type
units
firm
MWh
firm
MWh
firm
MWh
firm
MWh
non-firm MWh-equiv
MWh
2010
11,002
2,344
7,413
570
8,464
29,794
Galena: Current Situation
current cost of diesel power = 26 cents per kWh
Admin
distribution & admin = 8 cents/kWh
Distribution
Fuel
generation = 18 cents/kWh
Fixed gen
variable gen
Galena Assumptions: Diesel
• Efficiency 14 kWh/gal (15 for new)
• Diesel Price:
– Low = $1.50 + 0% real/yr
– High = $2.15 + 2% real/yr
– Delivery to homes: add $.75/gal
• Diesel Capital: $400/ kW
Galena Assumptions: Coal
units
$/kW
Coal plant capital cost
Coal plant availability
Coal plant efficiency (electric output/coal input)
Coal or nuclear "heat to electric" efficiency
Coal fuel
Energy content
M Btu/ton
Delivered price of coal
$/ton
Ash disposal cost
$/ton
Nonfuel coal O&M
Coal labor
people
cost per operator
$/yr
variable O&M and consummables
$/kWh
selected
value (yr 1)
3,000
95%
40%
50%
20
100
20
6
53,200
0.01
low
value
high
value
30%
40%
100
125
4S Reactor Core
Center SA: Ultimate shutdown rod
(neutron absorber as back up)
Fuel material:
U-Zr (metallic)
Fuel subassemblies (18
SAs)
Coolant material: sodium
Core lifetime:
30 years
Core height:
2.5 m (50MWe)
Reflectors are moving upward
and surrounding the core
slowly(*) in order to compensate
the reactivity loss during 30 years
burn-up. If an accident occurred,
reflector would fall down to
make core subcritical.
2.0m (10MWe)
Core diameter: 1.20m
(50MWe)
0.87m
Reactivity temperature
(10MWe)
coefficient:
negative
(*)
average velocity: 1mm/week approximately
Galena Assumptions: Nuclear
Nuclear capacity
Nuclear capital cost
Nuclear security staff
Nuclear operator staff
Nuclear availability
Nuclear annual supplies and expenses
units
MW
$
people
people
$/yr
selected
value (yr 1)
10.0
0
34
8
95%
500,000
low
value
high
value
4
34
Galena Results: Diesel
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
20
10
20
13
20
16
20
19
20
22
20
25
20
28
20
31
20
34
20
37
real year 2004 $ per kWh
Diesel System: Electric Rates
$2.15/gal, +2%/yr
$1.50/gal, flat
Galena Results: Nuclear
0.25
42 staff, $1.50/gal flat diesel
0.20
12 staff, $2.15/gal + 2%/yr
diesel
0.15
0.10
0.05
-
20
10
20
13
20
16
20
19
20
22
20
25
20
28
20
31
20
34
20
37
real year 2004 $ per kWh
Nuclear system: Average Electric Rates
Galena Results: Avoided CO2
Avoided diesel fuel:
733,000 gallons (utility electricity)
+ 220,000 gallons (residential heating)
+ 471,000 gallons (air station heating)
= 1.4 million gallons per yr (in 2010)
X 10 kg CO2/gallon
= 14,245 tons CO2/yr
@ $9.33/ton (current EU spot price)
= $133,000 /yr
= 9 cents per gallon
Excess Power from 10 MW output
Daily Loads and Nuclear Capacity - year 2039
12.0
nuclear capacity
10.0
greenhouse
air station heat
home heat
existing dist. heat
utility electricity
nuclear capacity
6.0
4.0
2.0
day of year
361
351
341
331
321
311
301
291
281
271
261
251
241
231
221
211
201
191
181
171
161
151
141
131
121
111
101
91
81
71
61
51
41
31
21
1
11
megawatts
8.0
Hydrogen – Basic Considerations
• H2 is energy carrier, not energy source
• Density: Liquid - 0.071kg/l or 0.59 lb/gal –
about the same as styrofoam
• Energy Content: 30,000 BTU/gal – 1/5 that
of diesel
• Best form of storage appears to be as a
liquid. Others under development include
hydrates and salts.
Hydrogen: Cost to Produce
• Size: 1 MW(e) input; 404,000 gal out
• Capital:
H2 generator:
H2 liquefier:
Storage tanks:
N liquefier:
Filling Stn, other:
• Total Capital:
• Total O&M:
$1.5 million
$2.0 million
$0.95 million
$0.7 million
$1.0 million
$6.2 million
$62,000+ per yr
Hydrogen: Cost to Transport
• 500,000 gal H2 = 29 barge trips with
one 17,000 gal cryogenic tank
@$7,800 per trip
= $447,000
= $0.92/gal
• ~=$4.00 per gallon of diesel on a Btu
basis.
Galena: Hydrogen Enterprise
•To serve city, school, and military vehicles
•Replace 90,000 gal gasoline with 400,000 gal
liquid H2
Capital
Power Cost
H2 Production Target Cost to
Cost
beat diesel
$6.2
million
-0-
$46/MBTU
$15-30 / MBTU
-0-
1.5 cents/kWh
$17/MBTU
$15-30 / MBTU
Simple Extension I: Bethel
• Load:
– 41.2 MWh + 1%/yr
– 6.7 MW peak
• Nuclear Labor:
– 8 operators + 20 security
• Misc O&M:
– $2 million (viz $3.5 million Toshiba 50 MW)
Nuclear replaces electricity,
not heat
Daily Loads and Nuclear Capacity - year 2039
12.0
nuclear capacity
10.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
day of year
361
351
341
331
321
311
301
291
281
271
261
251
241
231
221
211
201
191
181
171
161
151
141
131
121
111
91
101
81
71
61
51
41
31
21
1
11
megawatts
8.0
Simple Extension I: Results
• NPV busbar cost excluding nuclear
capital:
– Diesel: $113 - $181 million depending on fuel
price
– Nuclear: $69 million
• Therefore, breakeven nuclear capital cost
for 10 MW is $43 million - $112 million
– (compare to Toshiba est. $125 million for 50
MW)
Simple Extension II: Donlin Creek
• Load:
– 50+ MW at all times
– 438,300 MWh per yr (!)
• Nuclear Labor:
– 8 operators + 20 security
– 25% remote site wage premium
• Misc O&M:
– $3.5 million (= Toshiba 50 MW estimate)
• Diesel cost: $1.50 and flat
Results: Donlin
Billions
Present value of busbar costs excluding
nuclear capital
Other
$1.4
$1.2
Fuel
$1.0
$0.8
$0.6
$0.4
$0.2
$0.0
Diesel
Nuclear
Looking Ahead
• Economics of nuclear depend on:
– Energy Requirements
– Load shape (flat is best!)
• Economics of transmission:
–
–
–
–
Very poor if serving small places
Excellent if serving a large load
Reliability concerns are real,
But, 75+% of total diesel cost is FUEL…
Looking Ahead…..
• On-site fabrication required for offriver sites
• Waste management
• Security / staffing
• NRC process is just beginning
Further Information
•
Galena Electric Power: a Situational Analysis.
available at
http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Publications/Galena_power_final.pdf
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Alaska Electric Power Statistics (with Alaska Energy Balance) 19602001 by Scott Goldsmith, November 2003.
http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Publications/akelectricpowerfinal.pdf
BP Statistical Review of World Energy. 2004.
www.bp.com/worldenergy
Hansen, James. Defusing the Global Time Bomb. Scientific
American, February 2004. Pp. 68-77.
Smil, Vaclav. 1994 Energy in World History. Westview.
Smil, Vaclav. 2003. Energy at the Crossroads. MIT Press.