Residential Broadband Internet Access in
the United States:
the Changing User Experience
Dr. William Lehr
Executive Director
MIT Internet & Telecoms Convergence Consortium
wlehr@rpcp.mit.edu
http://itel.mit.edu
Presentation to
Sprint Research Symposium
Lawrence, Kansas
March 8-9, 2000
Outline
•
•
•
•
What is broadband?
Cable vs. xDSL
Cable availability
Issues and Questions
March 2000
© Gillett & Lehr, Residential Broadband Internet Access in U.S.
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What is broadband?
• “High speed”
– greater than 200 Kbps (not 56K/ISDN)
– both directions? (not DirectPC)
– how measured? (CIR vs. burst)
• “Always on”
• Internet access
– Access to standard Internet services: email, web
browsing, telnet, and FTP
March 2000
© Gillett & Lehr, Residential Broadband Internet Access in U.S.
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What technologies?
• Cable modems (since 1996)
– pre- and DOCSIS modems
• xDSL (since 1999)
– ADSL, SDSL, HDSL, G.Lite, etc.
• LMDS & other wireless (2000?)
– Sprint’s MMDS plans
March 2000
© Gillett & Lehr, Residential Broadband Internet Access in U.S.
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Cable vs. DSL
• Similar?
– “High speed”, Always on, Internet access
– Shared Internet access
– Basic infrastructure ubiquitously available
• Different?
–
–
–
–
Cable more mature, more standardized
Cable Operators vs. Local Telephone companies?
Bandwidth limitations? Sharing? Location?
Residential vs. Business (initially)
• Cable early leader, DSL follows...
March 2000
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Cable vs. xDSL
200 - 2000
homes passed
per node
Coaxial Copper
Server,
Accounting,
Cache, etc.
...
Neighborhood
Node
Internet
Cloud
Coaxial Copper
Router
...
Neighborhood
Node
Twisted-pair Copper
Server,
Accounting,
Cache, etc.
...
DSLAM
Internet
Cloud
Digital Loop Carrier
(DLC)
Twisted-pair Copper
Router
...
DSLAM
Digital Loop Carrier
(DLC)
March 2000
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Architecturally similar, but with
different uncertainties
Headend
Server,
Accounting,
Cache, etc.
Shared LAN:
bandwidth
and security
issues
Cable
Internet
Cloud
Router
Connections
to Internet
backbone and
other ISPs
Central Office
Server,
Accounting,
Cache, etc.
DSL
Internet
Cloud
Router
DSLAM
Shared (muxed) bandwidth
Varying distances from CO,
wire groupings etc.
Pricing
• $40-$60/month for residential service
– Compare vs. 2nd POTS line + dialup ISP account
– Higher installation charges typical
– Prices much higher for DSL commercial services
• Expect prices to fall….$40 or lower (?)
• Competition
– Free ISPs
March 2000
© Gillett & Lehr, Residential Broadband Internet Access in U.S.
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Availability
Cable
Installed (Dec99)
Penetration homes passed (Dec99)
Shipped (1999)
Share of homes available (end of 2000)
DSL
1.2-1.8 0.5 (0.25 res)
2-3%
n/a
2.2-2.6
1.0
41%
24%
(Yankee Group forecast)
March 2000
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Cable Deployment - 1998
1996
1997
1998
March 2000
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Cable Modem Deployments
• Broadband far from universal
– 781 communities in US in 232 (3,133) counties through mid-1999
• 10% of counties, 43%* of population
– Deployments progressing rapidly (65% cable systems 2-way)
– Still early phase
• Deployment first to largest, affluent communities
– Of largest 100 counties, 69 have modems
– Where you would expect
• Strong MSO effect
– MediaOne clear leader
– Different strategies, different infrastructure
March 2000
© Gillett & Lehr, Residential Broadband Internet Access in U.S.
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Demographics of cable modem deployments
through June 1999
All counties
With Cable
With Modems
Averages
83,494
29,195
2,030
16,661
214
Averages
84,334
29,463
2,048
16,786
191
Averages
479,913
168,428
12,230
20,797
757
Number of observations
3,133
3,060
232
Population (1995, 000s)
Sum
261,586
Sum
258,063
Sum
111,340
100%
99%
43%
Population (1995)
Houses (1990)
Nonfarm establishments (1993)
Per capita Income (1993)
Population Density
Share of US population
March 2000
© Gillett & Lehr, Residential Broadband Internet Access in U.S.
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Broadband impacts
• Future of Internet is broadband access…
• Broadband users...
– More experienced Internet users
– Richer, better educated, etc.
– Like early adopters of Internet
• More time on line…
– Combine with telephone and other usage
– Move PC to living space (??)
– Wireless in-home networks (mobility, convenience)
• “Always on” critical
– Save connection time
– Enable push and other capabilities
March 2000
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Cable modem penetration: Prognosis
• Much higher than we have seen…
– Mergers (AT&T/TCI/MediaOne, Time-Warner/AOL)
– Little real marketing yet: supplier push weak
• Doubts about market acceptance
• Fears re customer service costs
• Little (if any) competitive pressure
• “Broadband content” in its infancy
• Internet not yet fully mainstream
• Standards, regulation
March 2000
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Issues and Challenges
• Traffic management
– More bursty (self-similarity problem)
• Regulatory policy
– Line sharing for DSL
– Cable unbundling ???
• New applications
– Telephony over cable, over DSL
– Streaming media
– Napster, etc.
March 2000
© Gillett & Lehr, Residential Broadband Internet Access in U.S.
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Issues and Challenges
• New networks: content delivery networks
– Push and pull…
• Congestion
– Managing consumer bandwidth expectations
– Cable: upstream, DSL: cross-talk
– Collocation space scarcity
• Always on, Security (Privacy)
March 2000
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