Humans and Global Carbon Cycle
A Faustian Bargain?
Berrien Moore III
Climate Central
Princeton, New Jersey
Second Tri-State Weather Conference
25 April 2009
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
390
385
Mauna Loa Average Monthly Carbon Dioxide Concentration:
Keeling Record 1958 - 2005
380
375
370
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
365
360
355
350
345
340
335
330
325
320
315
310
1958 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
Year
Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii
Thank you, David Keeling
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
19 May ’05
Historical Atmospheric Carbon Concentration
for the Last 1000 Years
Extracted from the Law Dome Ice Core
360
Carbon Concnetration (ppmv)
350
Law Dome Ice Core
Ice core
Atmosphere
Polynomial fit to ice core
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
Year
Source: Etheridge, et.al., Petit, et.al.
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
1800
1900
2000
Variation with Time
of the Vostok Isotope Temperature Record
4
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Years Before Present
Source: Petit, et.al. (PAGES/IGBP)
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
0
Temperature Variation (°C)
2
CO2 Concentration in the Vostok Ice Core
325
250
225
200
175
150
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Years Before Present
Source: Barnola, et.al. (PAGES/IGBP)
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
0
CO2 concentration (ppmv)
275
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
300
Vostok Ice Core CO2 Concentration and
Temperature Variation Record
325
4
275
0
250
-2
225
-4
200
-6
175
-8
150
-10
400,000
300,000
200,000
Years Before Present
Source: Barnola, et.al.; Petit, et.al. (PAGES/IGBP)
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
100,000
0
Temperature Variation (ЎC)
2
CO2 concentration (ppmv)
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
300
CO2 Concentration in the Vostok Ice Core
325
250
225
200
175
150
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Years Before Present
Source: Barnola, et.al. (PAGES/IGBP)
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
0
CO2 concentration (ppmv)
275
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
300
1000 1000
Atmospheric
Carbon
Dioxide
Atmospheric
Carbon
Dioxide
carbon dioxide (ppmv)
Business as Usual
carbon dioxide (ppmv)
800 800
Clean Energy & Efficiency
600 600
Current
400 400
Vostok
Vostok
Ice CoreIce
Core
200 200
400,000
300,000
200,000
Years Before
AD
Years2100
Before
100,000
2100 AD
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
0
IPCC 2001
Anthropogenic C Emissions: Fossil Fuel
2007 Fossil Fuel: 8.5 Pg C
[2007-Total Anthrop. Emissions: 8.5+1.5 = 10.0 Pg]
Fossil Fuel Em ission (Gt C/y)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1850
4001850
A tmoapher ic [CO2] (ppm v)
Emissions
380
360
340
320
1870
1870
1890
1890
1910
1910
1930
1930
1950
1950
1970
1970
1990
1990
2010
2010
[CO2]
1990 - 1999: 0.9% y-1
2000 - 2007: 3.5% y-1
2 ppm /ye a r
300
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell
et al 2007, PNAS
280
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
sions (GtC y
CO
5
Recent emissions
0
Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
10
) -1
9
8
7
2100
50-year
constant
growth rates
Actual emissions: CDIAC
Actual emissions: EIA
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
2006
to 2050
B1
1.1%,
A1B 1.7%,
A2
1.8%
A1FI 2.4%
2
Emissions
CO (GtC y
6
Observed
2000-2006
3.3%
5
1990
1995
2000
2005
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
2010
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Finding the mechanism
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Anthropogenic C Emissions: Carbon Intensity of GDP
1.5
Factor (relative to 1990)
1.4
World
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1
1
0.9
0.9
0.8
Emissions
F (emissions)
Population
P (population)
Wealth
g = G/P= per capita GDP
Carbon
h = F/Gintensity of GDP
0.7
0.6
0.5
1980
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS
1.5
1985
1990
1995
2000
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
2005
1980
The Airborne Fraction (2000-2007)
45% of all CO2 emissions accumulated in the atmosphere
The Airborne Fraction
The fraction of the annual
anthropogenic emissions that
remains in the atmosphere
55% were removed by natural sinks
Ocean removes 24%
Land removes 30%
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Fossil Fuel Em ission (
6
5
4
Atmospheric CO3 2 Concentration
2
1
0
Year 2007
Atmospheric CO2
concentration:
385 ppm
35% above pre-industrial
A tmoapher ic [CO2] (ppm v)
4001850
380
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
[CO2]
[CO2]
360
340
320
2 ppm /ye a r
300
280
1850
0.81850
0.6
Temperature (deg C )
1870
1870
1870
1890
1890
1910
1910
1930
1930
1950
1950
1970
1970
1990
1990
2010
2010
Temperature
0.2 C/de ca de
0.4
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1
1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1
1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
1850
1870
1890
1910
2000 - 2007: 2.0 ppm y-1
NOAA 2007; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Attribution of Recent Acceleration of Atmospheric CO2
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1
1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1
1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1
2000 – 2007: 2.0 ppm y-1
To:
• Economic growth
• Carbon intensity
• Efficiency of natural sinks
65% - Increased activity of the global economy
17% - Increased carbon intensity of the global economy
18% - Decreased efficiency of natural sinks
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Forcing
• Recent emissions were at or above the
trajectory of the full range explored in the AR4
• High recent emissions are not solely due to
rapid economic growth
• Climate on a trajectory that has not been
explored
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Global Carbon Sources and Sinks
Source: GCTE / IGBP
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
CO2 Annual Growth Rate
88
Gt. C per year
CO2 GROWTH RATE
Global
(NOAA)
66
Fossil Fuel
Cape Grim
(CSIRO)
44
22
Mauna Loa
(Scripps/NOAA)
Pinatubo
SOI
30
30
La Nina
00
-30
-30
El Nino
1955
1955
1960
1960
1965
1965
1970
1970
1975
1975
Year
1980
1980
Source: R. Francey (CSIRO)
1985
1985
1990
1990
1995
1995
2000
2000
(R J Francey, pers. Com)
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Global Carbon Sources and Sinks
Source: GCTE / IGBP
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
AmeriFlux, EuroFlux … and taller towers
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
AN-2 type Siberian airplane used to measure vertical profiles of CO2
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
R/V Roger Revelle
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
MODIS Ocean Chlorophyll
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Net Primary Productivity (g C/m3/yr1)
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
The Carbon System
Approach
The source and sinks and
controlling processes will
only be determined within an
integrated approach where
point-wise in situ surface
measurements can be
scaled up using global
satellite datasets and models,
and then constrained and
verified by atmospheric CO2
concentration
measurements.
A Hierarchy of Approaches and Scales
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Scale
Orbiting Carbon Observatory - JPL
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
An Active Carbon Dioxide Mission
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
and its impact on
plate tectonics
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Climate System
Source: WCRP
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Global Temperature 1880-2005
(meteorological stations)
o
Temperature Anomaly ( F)
1
0
Annual Mean
5-year Mean
-1
1880
1900
1920
1940
Year
1960
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
1980
2000
http://www.giss.nasa.gov
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
An increasing body of observations of climatic and
other changes in physical and ecological systems
gives a collective picture of a warming world.
Source of text: IPCC Third Assessment Report, WG1
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.
Source of text: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WG1
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years
is likely attributable to human activities.
Source of text: IPCC Third Assessment Report, WG1
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase
in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
Source of text: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WG1
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Global temperature
will rise from 1.4-5.8˚C
over this century
unless greenhouse
gas emissions are
greatly reduced.
Source of text: IPCC Third Assessment Report, WG1
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Fourth Assessment Report: Climate-Carbon System
Assessed upper ranges for temperature projections are
larger than in the TAR mainly because the broader
range of models now available suggests stronger climatecarbon cycle feedbacks.
Climate carbon cycle coupling is expected to add carbon
dioxide to the atmosphere as the climate system warms, but
the magnitude of this feedback is uncertain. This increases
the uncertainty in the trajectory of carbon dioxide emissions
required to achieve a particular stabilization level of
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
The current heating is not uniform geographically
Surface T in 2001-2005 vs 1951-80, averaging 0.53ºC increase
J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 ( 2006)
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Envisat: A “New”
Northwest Passage
September 2007
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
1979
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
2003
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Changes sea ice in extent
Sept 1980
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Changes in sea ice extent
September 1980
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Changes in sea ice extent
Sept 2007
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Changes in sea ice extent
Reduction from 1980 to 2007
And Change is
Accelerating
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Glaciers are shrinking
Muir Glacier, Alaska
August 1941
August 2004
NSIDC/WDC for Glaciology, Boulder, compiler. 2002, updated 2006. Online glacier
photograph database. Boulder, CO: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Climate System: A Balancing Act
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Source: WCRP
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Sea Ice
Surface T
Albedo
Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Open Ocean
Sea Ice
Surface T
Evaporation
Albedo
Low Clouds
Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Climate System
Source: WCRP
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Global Climate Change:
A Faustian Bargain–
Yet Grounded in Science
“Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise
would continue for centuries due to the
timescales associated with climate
processes and feedbacks, even if
greenhouse gas concentrations were to be
stabilized.”
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Thank you, David Keeling and Leonardo DiVinci
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Thank you, David Keeling and Leonardo DiVinci and Goethe
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Abrupt Climate Change?
Greenland Ice
Sheet Melting?
Changes in the
Gulf Stream?
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009
Second Tri-State Weather Conference • 25 April 2009