Implication and Opportunities for
GTOS from WCC-3 Outcomes
Observing and Information Systems Department
W. ZHANG, WMO Secretariat
GTOS SC Session 4, Paris, France, 30 Nov- 2 Dec, 2009
1
World Climate Conference-3: a historic event
Better climate information for a better future
Thank you
Merci
Gracias
Спасибо
‫شكرا‬
谢谢
The road to WCC-3
1st WCC (1979)
2nd WCC (1990)
Climate variability/change impacts
on all socioeconomic sectors
A Global Framework for Climate
Services (GFCS) required
A Cg-XV decision (2007)
A 2-year preparatory process
International Organizing
Committee
Preparation with Members
Conference opening
Conference Experts Segment
High-level Segment participation
High-level Segment opening
WCC-3 High-level Declaration
(approved on 3 September 2009)
DO 1 We, Heads of State and Government, Ministers and Heads of Delegation present at the High-level Segment
of the World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) in Geneva, noting the findings of the Expert Segment of the
Conference;
OP 1 Decide to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (hereafter referred to as “the Framework”) to
strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services;
OP 2 Request the Secretary-General of WMO to convene within four months of the adoption of the Declaration an
intergovernmental meeting of member states of the WMO to approve the terms of reference and to endorse the
composition of a task force of high-level, independent advisors to be appointed by the Secretary-General of the
WMO with due consideration to expertise, geographical and gender balance;
OP 3 Decide that the task force will, after wide consultation with governments, partner organizations and relevant
stakeholders, prepare a report, including recommendations on proposed elements of the Framework, to the
Secretary-General of WMO within 12 months of the task force being set up. The report should contain findings
and proposed next steps for developing and implementing a Framework. In the development of their report, the
taskforce will take into account the concepts outlined in the annexed Brief Note;
OP 4 Decide further that the report of the task force shall be circulated by the Secretary-General of WMO to
Member States of the WMO for consideration at the next WMO Congress in 2011, with a view to the adoption of a
Framework and a plan for its implementation; and
OP 5 Invite the Secretary-General of WMO to provide the report to relevant organizations, including the UN
Secretary-General.
WCC-3 High-level Declaration
(approved on 3 September 2009)
DO 1 We, Heads of State and Government, Ministers and Heads of Delegation present at the High-level Segment
of the World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) in Geneva, noting the findings of the Expert Segment of the
Conference;
OP 1 Decide to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (hereafter referred to as “the Framework”) to
strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services;
OP 2 Request the Secretary-General of WMO to convene within four months of the adoption of the Declaration an
intergovernmental meeting of member states of the WMO to approve the terms of reference and to endorse the
composition of a task force of high-level, independent advisors to be appointed by the Secretary-General of the
WMO with due consideration to expertise, geographical and gender balance;
Decide to establish a
Global Framework for Climate Services
OP 3 Decide that the task force will, after wide consultation with governments, partner organizations and relevant
stakeholders, prepare a report, including recommendations on proposed elements of the Framework, to the
Secretary-General of WMO within 12 months of the task force being set up. The report should contain findings
and proposed next steps for developing and implementing a Framework. In the development of their report, the
taskforce will take into account the concepts outlined in the annexed Brief Note;
OP 4 Decide further that the report of the task force shall be circulated by the Secretary-General of WMO to
Member States of the WMO for consideration at the next WMO Congress in 2011, with a view to the adoption of a
Framework and a plan for its implementation; and
OP 5 Invite the Secretary-General of WMO to provide the report to relevant organizations, including the UN
Secretary-General.
WCC-3 closure
Key WCC-3 statistics
• 13 messages by Heads of State/Governments + 3 on their behalf
• 57 Ministers or equivalent officials also addressed the HLS
• 14 Executive Heads of UN Agencies & Programmes present
• 17 major contributors to Conference trust fund
• ~ 2500 participants/exceptional developing country participation
• ~ 23k WCC-3 web site visits during the period
The way ahead
 Within 4 months, to convene an
intergovernmental meeting to approve the
terms of reference and to endorse the
composition of a task force of high-level,
independent advisors
 Within 4+12 = 16 months to receive the
task force’s Report and recommendations
on the proposed GFCS
 Before Cg-XVI (2011), to submit the
Report to WMO Members
 To provide the Report to relevant
organizations
 The beginning of a process!
13
WMO INTEGRATED GLOBAL
OBSERVING SYSTEM
(WIGOS)
Building on the past success
and make the best things better
WMO GOS Space-based development
1961
1990
1978
2009
Convergence of N.Hem and S.Hem Medium
Range Forecast skill 1981 – 2004
Impact of satellite observations on reanalyses
N-15 N-16
N-17
AQUA
AIRS+AMSUA
SH scores = NH scores
A Seamless Climate Prediction Framework
Climate Change.
Scenarios
Decades
Climate Variability
Seasons
Months
Boundary
Conditions
2 Weeks
Weather
1 Week
Initial
Conditions
Days
Watches
Hours
Warnings & Alert
Coordination
Adapted from: NOAA
Minutes
Environment
State/Local
Planning
Commerce
Health
Energy
Ecosystem
Recreation
Water Resource
Planning
Agriculture
Fire Weather
Transportation
Space
Applications
Water
Management
Protection of
Life & Property
Applications
Hydropower
Forecasts
Forecast Lead Time
Threats
Assessments
Anthropogenic
Forcing
Years
Outlook
Predictio
n
Guidance
Forecast
Uncertainty
Centuries
Challenges: Climate Change and severe
disasters, increasing society needs for
improved services
Hot & cold spells
El Niño
Droughts
River basin flooding
Tropical cyclones
Storm surges
Ice Storms
Heavy precipitations
(rain or snow)
Storm (winds)
Dust storms Wildland fires
& haze
Hail&Lightning
Mud & landslides
Flash floods
Avalanches
Tornadoes
Overview of Weather and Climate Models and the
Required Observations
Mid-1970s
Atmosphere
Mid-1980s
Early 1990s
Late 1990s
Present Day
Early 2000s?
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Weather
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Climate
Variability
Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Need an Integrated
Global Observing
System Going
Beyond the WWW
Sulphate
Aerosol
Sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Aerosol
Carbon Cycle
Carbon Cycle
Dynamic
Vegetation
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Climate
Change
Studying Earth as a Complex System
Atmosphere
Surface Winds
Precipitation
Reflection and Transmission
Evaporation
Transpiration
Surface Temperature
Circulation
Surface Winds
Precipitation
Reflection and Transmission
Surface Temperature
Evaporation
Currents
Upwelling
Land
Infiltration
Runoff
Nutrient Loading
Surface Temperature
Currents
Ocean
WIGOS: Overview
CONGRESS XV (2007)
• High priority -- “Towards Enhanced Integration
between the WMO Observing Systems”
(WIGOS)
WMO Executive Council
• Established a WG on WIGOS-WIS
– Develop an WIGOS Implementation Plan
– Refine the WIS-Implementation Plan
– Monitor the Progress of the Pilot and Demo
projects
WIGOS Vision
• WIGOS will establish an integrated,
comprehensive
and
coordinated
observing system to satisfy in a costeffective and sustained manner the
evolving observing requirements of
WMO
Members
and
enhance
coordination with partners for the
benefit of society.
Three areas of
Integrations/Standardizations
Instruments and methods of
observation standards
Users
WIS
Observations
for
Weather,
Climate,
Water,
Ocean, …
QMF Standards
Data
Processing and
Forecasting
Standards
for
Data & Metadata exchange
&
Discovery, Access and
Retrieval (DAR) Services
Archiving
Active Quality Management
Importance of observations : From Observations to Consequences
Understanding
Analysis
Observations
Monitoring
Validation
Consequences
Assimilation
Models
Initialization
Predictions
The availability of new observations strongly motivates advances in
understanding, prediction, and application.
Timeline @ WIGOS IP
EC-LVIII
June 2006
Cg-XV
May 2007
EC-LX
June 2008
EC-LXI
June 2009
EC-LXII
June 2010
NOW
CONCEPT
Cg-XVI
May 2011
REALITY 
CBS XIV
EC LVIII
initiated work
“toward
enhanced
integration
between the
WMO observing
systems”;
establishes EC
Task Team on
WIGOS
Cg-XV decided
to embark on
WIGOS via
Res. 30 (CG XV);
initiated WMO
Programme and
structural
changes;
EC-LIX
established EC
WG on
WIGOS/WIS;
EC LX agreed to
WIGOS Concept
of Operations
and WIGOS
Development
and
Implementation
Plan V1.1
Review progress
and update plans
as appropriate
Review progress,
update plans;
Pilot Projects
completed and
evaluated;
Propose changes
to Tech Regs,
structure, etc;
Prepare for CG
XVI
Cg-XVI receives
final report of EC
WG WIGOS/WIS
WIGOS Benefits
• Improved observing networks operations
• Increased access to observational data and products
with improved quality
• More efficient use of all available resources (costeffectiveness)
• Better preparedness to incorporate new observing
systems and to interface with WMO co-sponsored
observing systems
• Allowing Members to more efficient and effectively
respond to new challenges and evolving user service
requirements.
•
No.1 Priority: fill-in the gaps
–Ocean
–Terrestrial
–Atmospheric chemistry
For example: How to carry on Polar Regions and
Cryosphere observation on operational basis?
Linkage to GTOS
The Arctic
Ocean ice
has been
there for 2
million years.
1979
2003
Barrow,
Alaska
Tiksi, Russia
Ny-Alesund,
Svalbard
Eureka, Canada
Summit, Greenland
Alert, Canada
Establishing Intensive
Atmospheric Observatories
In the Arctic is the component
of NOAA/SEARCH being
directed by ESRL
Temperature-salinity
observations under ice
IPY legacy issues
• Assessment of IPY observing system covered all projects within
the domains: Atmosphere, Ocean, Ice, Land, People, Earth &
Space
• Legacy: Make the IPY project outcome durable
– Safeguard continued availability of data and results to the community
– Support observing sites & facilities established through or within the
IPY to continue polar monitoring and research
No. 2 priority: ensuring the quality of the
observations: Climate observations
knowledge
data
products
information
• Methodology: standardization:
• Instruments: Standardize the
instruments, especially the
performance of the absolute
accuracy (long-term)
• Science: Seek the best sciencebased algorithms (standards?)
• Technology: Standardize the data
processing procedures (modules)
• Validation: procedures and
standards, global supersites
networks, etc.
• International coordination
(compliance and acceptance).
NPOESS Algorithms as Key Inputs
to User Models
Payload IPT
Science Algorithm
Development/
Procurement
SE IPT
Correction requests
• Incomplete delivery
• Non-compliant products
• Failure Analysis
Delivered Science Algorithms
• ATBD
• Science-grade code
• Test Sets
Science Algorithm
Verification
Sensor and Operating
Environment
Characterization
Verified Science Algorithms
• ATBD
• Science-grade code
• Test Sets
• OADs
IDPS IPT
Science to
Operational Algorithms
Operational
Science Discrepancy Reports
• Operational Algorithm Document
• Timeliness failure
Algorithm Migration
• Operational-grade code
• Quality failure
ST&E IPT
• EDR Test output
Operational Verification
Operational
Test Reports
Verified Operational Algorithms
• Pass
Algorithm
• Operational-grade code
• Fail
Performance
- Timeliness failure
Verification
- Quality failure
Calibrated/Validated
ST&E IPT
Operational Algorithms
Specific IPTs have
responsibility and
budget for assigned
algorithm activities
within program phases
• Discrepancy reports
• New calibration coefficients
Operational
Algorithm Cal/Val
Discrepancy Reports
• Operation
• Performance
• Calibration
Coefficients
• Operational-grade
code
O&S IPT
User Operational
Algorithm
Assessment
SENSORS
CCSDS (mux, code, frame) & Encrypt
Delivered Raw
Packetization
Compression
Aux.
Sensor
Data
ENVIRONMENTAL
SOURCE
COMPONENTS
RDR
Production
RDR Level
Filtration
A/D Conversion
Detection
Cal.
Source
Comm
Processing
Flux
Manipulation
C3S
Comm
Receiver
TDR Level
SDR
Production
SDR Level
EDR
Production
EDR Level
IDPS
Comm
Xmitter
Data
Store
OTHER
SUBSYSTEMS
SPACE SEGMENT
NPOESS products delivered at
multiple levels
Organizational Structure of WMO (188
Members )
CONGRESS
Executive Council
Regional Associations
Technical Commissions
Working Groups
Rapporteurs
Working Groups
Rapporteurs
Other Bodies
JSC-WCRP , IPCC
JSTC-GCOS
Working Groups
Panel of Experts
Secretary-General
Secretariat
WMO/OMM
WMO Secretariat structure: rational clustering
WMO Space Programme
coordinated effort
Sustained Co-Ordinated Processing
of Environmental satellite data for
Climate Monitoring (SCOPE-CM)
Response to GCOS
Requirements
Space-based Component WMO’s Global
Observing System (GOS)
Introduction: Satellites supporting
Climate Applications
simulations
Climate
process
studies
In situ
observation
Operational
climate
monitoring
Satellite
observations
Climate variability
Trend analysis
Adaptation
and mitigation
Climate Applications
Decision
making
Maximizing Data Quality and
Usability
Satellites
& sensors
GOS
Satellite
data
Consistent
Calibrated
data sets
GSICS
Essential
Climate
products
SCOPE-CM
Users
• Sustained CO-ordinated Processing of Environmental satellite
data for Climate Monitoring (SCOPE-CM)
• Global products
• Sustained into the future
• Coordinated globally
GSICS: Opportunities for Cross-Calibration / Validation
Simultaneous Nadir Overpasses (SNO)
LEO vs. LEO CrossComparison
NOAA-18 [AM] & EOS-Terra [PM] e,g
MetOp (1,2 or 3) [AM] & NPP [PM] = similar
MetOp (1,2 or 3) [AM] & NPOESS (C1 or C3) [PM] = similar
NPOESS (C2 or C4) [early AM] & NPOESS (C1 or C3) [early PM]
GEO vs. LEO CrossComparison
LEO vs. LEO InterCalibration
EOS/Hyperion & GOES-R e,g
Any LEO & Any GEO = similar
e.g.
MetOp (1,2 or 3) [AM] & NPP [PM] = similar
MetOp (1,2 or 3) [AM] & NPOESS (C1 or C3) [PM] = similar
NPOESS (C2 or C4) [early AM] & NPOESS (C1 or C3) [early PM]
MetOp (1,2 or 3) [AM] & EOS/Hyperion
Orbit Trajectories courtesy of Changyong Cao and Mitch Goldberg, NOAA/NESDIS
WMO’s SCOPE-CM initiative:
goals and structure
•
Initial Participants of the SCOPE-CM
Network
•
Operational Satellite operators:
–
–
–
–
•
NOAA
JMA
CMA
EUMETSAT
Stakeholder
–
–
–
–
WMO Space Programme
GCOS
CEOS
CGMS/GSICS
SCOPE-CM Pilot Projects
Sensors
ECVs and topics
1
AVHRR
Clouds and Aerosols
2
SSM/I
Water vapour, clouds,
precipitation
3
GEO
Surface albedo, clouds
and aerosols
4
GEO
Winds and clear sky
radiances
5
GEO
Upper tropospheric
humidity
Lead
Contributors
Pilot project examples: Project 1
• 30 year of AVHRR data after recalibration
• Processing and validation started for
selected regions
•
AVHRR cloud effective droplet
radius
Pilot project examples: Project 2
• SSM/I 20 years data set water vapour over ocean:
MPI-Meteorology
University Hamburg
Research
To
Operations
Pilot project examples: Project 4
• Clear Sky Radiance from JMA Geostationary
satellites currently processing
15-year Clear Sky Radiance data set from 1995 to 2009
200
9
CSR from GMS-5 on 22 Jan
1999
CSR from MTSAT-1R on 22 Jan
2009
Urban Growth -- Las Vegas, Nevada
1973
Population:
358,000
2000
1,560,000
NO2 Images for April 15, 2004
NASA
GTOS – Achievements: ECVs
EQUal_importance
Global data
sets
produced?
SAT
Y
Biomass
EQU
No
Fire Disturbance
SAT
FAPAR
ECV Name
INSitu,SATellite,
In situ data used and
source?
Validation of
methods &
Products
Y (countries/WMO)
Underway
Y
Y (projects)
Underway
SAT
Y
Y (projects)
Underway
Glaciers&Ice Caps
EQU
Y
Y (GTN-G)
Underway (for satellite)
Ground Water
INS
No
Lake Levels and
Reservoir Storage
EQU
No
Land Cover
SAT
Y
Y (projects)
Underway
Leaf Area Index
SAT
Y
Y (projects)
Underway
Permafrost
INS
Y
Y (GTN-P)
Operational*
River Discharge
INS
Y
Y (countries/ WMO)
Operational*
Soil Moisture
EQU
No
Snow Cover
EQU
Y
Albedo
Countries
Network in
development
Y (WMO)
Y (countries/ WMO)
Underway (for
satellite)
55
Water Use
INS
No
CRD Maturity Research-Operations
NOAA LEAD
R-O
56
The Way Forward
• In conclusion, both satellite and in situ data are
required to better monitor, characterize, and
predict changes in the Earth system.
• While in situ measurements will remain essential
, Earth-observation satellites are the only realistic
means to obtain the necessary global coverage.
• With well-calibrated and validated measurements
(integration between in situ and space) can jointly
make most important contribution to global Earth
observations.
• Partnership is essential:
– Old proverb: If you want to go quickly, go
alone, if you want to go far, go together.
– If you want to quickly and far ??
58
WIGOS Web Page
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/wigos/index_en.html