The Analysis and Comparison of Gauge Variance Estimators Peng-Sen Wang and Jeng-Jung Fang Southern Taiwan University of Technology Tainan, Taiwan 1 Content Background Objectives Assumptions Literatures 3 Criterions for comparison 8 estimators for comparison -Definitions -References -Methods for Estimating Gauge Variance 2 Background and Objectives The precision of measurement system will affect the quality of statistical analysis. 3 methods for estimating GR&R varaince: ANOVA Classical GR&R Studies Long Form Before doing GR&R research, 3 parameters must be decided. n: number of parts, p: number of operators, k :number of repetitions 3 Assumptions Parts can be measured repeatedly. Quality characteristic is quantitative. Single quality characteristic. Quality characteristic is normally distributed. Independent measurements among parts. Other factors are controllable. 4 Literature Definition Repeatability :The variability of gauge itself. Same operator measures same part. 重複性 Repeatabilty rept Reproducibility:The variability due to different operators using the same gauge. Different operators measures same part. 量測人員A 量測人員B 量測人員C 再現性 Reproducibility 5 Definition Literature Gauge Repeatability and Reproducibility : (GR&R):The overall performance of gauge capability, call it measurement variation. 6 Literature GR&R related reference AIAG Editing Group (1991), “Measurement Systems Analysis-Reference Manual(MSA)”,1nd ed., Automotive Industries Action Group. Barraentine, L. B. (1991), “Concepts for R&R Studies”, ASQC Quality Press , Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Montgomery, D. C. and Runger, G. C. (1993a), “Gauge Capability Analysis and Designed Experiments. Part I : Basic Methods”, Quality Engineering, Vol.6, No.1, pp.115-135. Montgomery, D. C. and Runger, G. C. (1993b), “Gauge Capability Analysis and Designed Experiments. Part II : Experimental Design Models and Variance Component Estimation”, Quality Engineering, Vol.6, No.2, pp.289-305. 7 Literature Methods for estimating gauge variance ANOVA Based on the ANOVA model of Montgomery and Runger (1993b.). Two-factor random effects model:One factor is part(P) with n levels, the other is operator (O) with p level. With k repeated measurements for each combination, the linear model is: X ijk Pi O j POij Rijk i 1, 2, , n j 1, 2, , p k 1, 2, , k Xijkis the kth repeated measurement on the ith part by the jth operator. Pi is the ith part effect. Oj is the jth operator effect. POij is the interaction. Rijk is the error term. Random factors are normally distributed with mean 0 and constant variances. 8 Literature ANOVA ANOVA of random effects model 變異來源 平方和 自由度 均方 期望均方 Source of Sum of Degrees of Mean Expected Variability Squares Freedom Squares Mean Squares 產品 Parts 量測人員 Operators 產品×量測人員 Parts×Operators 誤差項 Error 總和 Total SSp N-1 MSp SSo P-1 MSo SSpo (n-1)(p-1) MSpo SSR np(k-1) SST npk-1 MSR 2 E MS P R2 k PO pk P2 2 E MS O R2 k PO nk O2 2 E MS PO R2 k PO E MS R R2 When the interaction exists, the unbiased estimators for gauge capability is: 2 ˆ R2 MS R ˆ repeatabil ity 2 2 ˆ O2 ˆ PO ˆ reproducib MS O n 1MS PO nMS R nk ility 2 2 2 ˆ reproducib ˆ gauge ˆ repeatabil ity ility MS O n 1MS PO n k 1MS R nk 9 Literature ANOVA 2 0, usually define it 0. Assume that no interaction If ˆ po exists. A reduced model is fitted as: X ijk Pi O j Rijk i 1,2,, n j 1,2, , p k 1,2 , κ Without interaction existing, the estimators for gauge capability are: 2 2 ˆ ˆ repeatabil ity R MS R 2 2 ˆ ˆ reproducib ility O MS O MS R nk 2 2 2 ˆ ˆ gauge ˆ repeatabil ity reproducibility MS O nk 1MS R nk 10 Literature Methods for estimating gauge variance Classical GR&R Montgomery and Runger (1993a)called it “Classical Gauge Repeatability and Reproducibility Study” 。 Estimator for repeatability: ˆ repeatability R d2 where d2 is determined by the number of repetitions k. Estimator for reproducibility: ˆ reproducibility where R max X j min X j , X j X j RX d2 is the overall average of the j jth operator and d2 is determined by the number of operators. 11 Literature Methods for estimating gauge variance Long Form Method Introduced in the MSA manual of QS 9000 system without interaction being considered. The repeatability and reproducibility estimators are: repeatability ˆ reproducibility where R d2 RX * d 2 2 R d2 nk 2 d 2 is in appendix B(g=1,m=number of operators) 12 Literature Repeatability and Reproducibility Estimators 標準差 方法 ˆ repeatability MS R ̂ reproducibility MS O n 1MS PO nMS R nk (交互作用) 變異數分析法 MS O MS R 傳統 GR&R R d2 長表格 R d2 nk (交互作用不顯著) R X d2 RX d* 2 2 R d2 nk 2 13 Revised Classical GR&R and Long Form Methods Classical GR&R and Long Form methods can’t be used under the cases with interaction between operators and parts. Adjust the estimator of reproducibility as: R X ij 其中, X ij n R X ij i 1 n k X ijk i 1, , n k 1 , j 1 , , p k RX ij max X ij min X ij , i 1,, n j j 14 Revised Classical GR&R and Long Form Methods Measurement Layout 人員 重 產 複 品 量測人員 1 量測值 x111 x 112 1 2 … n … x 11k x211 x 212 … x 21k … … xn11 x n12 … x n1k X 1 … 量測人員 2 平均 全距 X 11 R11 X 21 R21 … … X n1 R n1 R 1 量測值 x121 x 122 … x 12k x221 x 222 … x 22k … … xn21 x n22 … x n2k X 2 平均 全距 X 12 R12 X 22 R22 … … X n 2 R n2 R 2 量測人員 p 量測值 … … … x 1p1 平均 全距 X 1 p R1 p X 2 p R2 p … … x 1p2 … x 1pk x 2p1 x 2p2 … x 2pk … … x np1 x np2 … x npk X p X np R np R p 15 Revised Classical GR&R and Long Form Methods Lin(2005) revised Classical GR&R and Long Form methods as: R X ij d2 ' ˆ reproducib ility " ˆ reproducib ility R X ij * d2 2 R d2 nk 2 Montgomery and Runger (1993a) mentioned 12 2 E(ˆ ' reproducibility ) O2 PO R2 n . Thus in the research, the estimators for GR&R are revised as the following to make them unbiased. ˆ ' reproducibility " ˆ reproducib ility RX ij d2 R X ij * d2 2 R d2 n 2 2 R d2 n 2 16 Revised Classical GR&R and Long Form Methods Burdick and Larsen(1997)found the number of operators have major effect on the confidence interval of repeatability and reproducibility. Jiang(2002)proposed more operators under the same npk vlaue. Based on the two researches, the reproducibility estimator of Long Form method is revised as: RX ij "' ˆ reproducibility * d2 2 R d2 npk 2 17 Criterions for comparing GR&R estimators Assume repeatability and reproducibility are known, simulate N runs to calculate the average values of repeatability, reproducibility, and total gauge variance. The criterions were used in the research: Mean Ratio of Estimated Gauge Variance Variance of Estimated Gauge Variance Mean Squares Error of Estimated Gauge Variance, (MSE)。 18 Criterions for comparing GR&R estimators Mean Ratio To evaluate accuracy of estimator to its true value (Unbiasedness) The equation is: N ˆ 2 gauge 量測總變異估計變量 2 真值 i 1 gauge 模擬次數 N Decision:The closer the ratio to 1, the more accurate the estimator is. 19 Criterions for comparing GR&R estimators Variance of gauge variance estimate After simulating N runs, N gauge variance estimates are obtained and its variance is computed. It is used to evaluate the precision of the gauge variance estimator. The equation is: 2 ˆ gauge N i 1 N N 1 N ˆ N i 1 2 2 gauge 2 Decision:The smaller the variance, the more precise the estimator is, and the narrower its confidence is. 20 Criterions for comparing GR&R estimators Mean Square Errors(MSE) MSE E ˆ 2 E ˆ E ˆ 2 E E ˆ 2 Var ˆ Bias 2 MSE is composed of two parts: Var ˆ shows the precision while bias measures the accuracy of the estimator. MSE combines accuracy and precision into one index. Equation: ˆ 2 N 量測總變異估計變異 真值 模擬次數 2 i 1 2 gauge 2 gauage N Decision:The smaller the MSE, the more accurate and precise the estimator is. 21 Criterions for comparing GR&R estimators MSE Bickel and Doksum(1977)points out that MSE both considers accuracy and precision. The estimator with minimum MSE indicates that it is a best estimator. The research used MSE as a major criterion for comparing estimators while considering mean ratio and variance of estimated gauge variance as supplementary rules. 22 Simulation result and comparison of estimators 模擬開始 n 為 15 , 20 和 25 p為2,3和4 k為2和3 設定產品數 n、 量測人員數 p、 量測重複次數 k 設定 2 O2、 PO 及 產生模擬量測值 2 R O2 為 1 和 2 2 po 為 0.5 和 1 R2 為 0.25 和 0.5 模擬 10000次 估算重複性變異 再現性變異 量測總變異 量測再現性變異和總變異的平均真值比 量測再現性變異和總變異的變異數 量測再現性變異和總變異的均方誤差 模擬結束 程式模擬流程圖 23 Eight gauge variance estimators for comparison 標準差 方法 ˆ repeatability 方法 變異數分析法 (ANOVA) MS O n 1MS PO nMS R nk (交互作用) MS R MS O MS R nk 傳統 GR&R (CRR) 長表格(LF) R d2 R d2 (交互作用不顯著) RX R d2 林郁智(2005) Modified Classical GR&R(MCRRL) 標準差 ̂ reproducibility d2 RX d* 2 2 R d2 nk R X ij d2 2 ˆ repeatability 林郁智(2005) ̂ reproducibility 2 R d2 R X ij d 2* Modified Classical GR&R(MCRRN) R d2 R X ij R d2 d n 2 Modified Long Form(MLFN1) R d2 R X ij d 2* R d2 n Modified Long Form(MLFN2) R d2 R X ij d 2* R d2 npk Modified Long Form(MLFL) R d2 nk 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 24 Simulation result and comparison of estimators Data from the case study of Montgomery (1993a) GR&R 估算方法的之比較(交互作用不顯著) ANOVA ˆ ˆ CRR LF MCRRL MLFL MCRRN MLFN1 MLFN2 2 repeatability 0.88316 1.03883 1.03883 1.03883 1.03883 1.03883 1.03883 1.03883 2 reproducibility 0.01063 0.03687 0.00298 0.33182 0.23461 0.27988 0.20864 0.25192 0.89379 1.07570 1.04182 1.37065 1.27344 1.31871 1.24747 1.29076 2 ˆ gauge 1.6 1.4 變異數估計值 1.2 ANOVA 1 CRR 0.8 LF 0.6 MCRRL MLFL 0.4 MCRRN 0.2 MLFN1 0 MLFN2 Repeatability Reproducibility Gauge 25 Simulation result and comparison of estimators Data from the case study of Montgomery (1993a) GR&R 估算方法的之比較(交互作用顯著) 2 ˆ repeatabil ity ANOVA CRR LF MCRRL MLFL MCRRN MLFN1 MLFN2 0.81111 0.85673 0.85673 0.85673 0.85673 0.85673 0.85673 0.85673 2 1.95556 0.32617 0.22759 1.90040 1.46385 1.81473 1.40673 1.48289 ˆ reproducib ility 2 ˆ gauge 2.76667 1.18290 1.08432 2.75713 2.32058 2.67146 2.26346 2.33962 3 變異數估計值 2.5 ANOVA 2 CRR 1.5 LF MCRRL 1 MLFL MCRRN 0.5 MLFN1 MLFN2 0 Repeatability Reproducibility Gauge 26 comparison of estimators For the case with interaction Mean ratios of estimated gauge variances under various npk values 1.600 1.400 平均真值比 ANOVA ANOVA estimator is most closest to 1 and is the best one. LF estimator is the worst one. CRR 1.200 LF 1.000 MCRRL MLFL 0.800 MCRRN MLFN1 0.600 不同參數組合數之量測總變異的平均真值比之比較圖 MLFN2 60 80 90 100 120 135 150 160 180 200 225 240 300 參數組合npk The estimators of LF and ANOVA won’t changed with the increase of npk values. Other estimators will be closer to the true value as the npk values increase. 27 comparison of estimators For the case with interaction Variance of estimated gauge variances under various npk values 14.000 12.000 ANOVA 變異數 10.000 CRR 8.000 LF 6.000 MCRRL 4.000 MLFL 2.000 MCRRN 不同參數組合數之總變異的變異數比較圖 0.000 60 80 90 100 120 135 150 160 180 200 225 240 300 參數組合npk MLFN1 MLFN2 MLFN1, MLFL,and MLFN2 methods have the smallest variances. ANOVA and LF are the second. MCRRN, MCRRL, and CRR are the worst. All the variances decreases as the npk values increase. When the npk value equals 160, all the variance estimators decrease rapidly and then become steady thereafter. 28 comparison of estimators For the case with interaction MSE of estimated gauge variances under various npk values 均方誤差 16.000 14.000 ANOVA 12.000 CRR LF 10.000 MCRRL 8.000 MLFL 6.000 MCRRN 4.000 MLFN1 2.000 不同參數組合數之量測總變異的均方誤差之比較圖 MLFN2 0.000 60 80 90 100 120 135 150 160 180 200 225 240 300 參數組合npk MLFN2, MLFL, and MLFN1methods have the smallest MSE values while ANOVA and LF methods are the second. MCRRN, MCRRL, and CRR are the worst ones. All the MSE values decrease with the increase of npk vlaues. When the npk value equals 160, all the variance estimators decrease rapidly and then become steady thereafter. 29 comparison of estimators For the case with interaction The MSE values of estimated gauge variances while npk equals 120. 5 25 4.5 ANOVA 4 LF 3 MCRRL 2.5 MLFL 2 MCRRN 1.5 MLFN1 1 均方誤差 3.5 均方誤差 ANOVA 20 CRR CRR LF 15 MCRRL MLFL 10 MCRRN MLFN1 5 MLFN2 0.5 MLFN2 0 0 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25 1.75 3.5 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25 3.5 量測總變異 量測總變異 (15,4,2)量測總變異的均方誤差比較圖 (20,2,3)量測總變異的均方誤差比較圖 均方誤差 8 7 ANOVA 6 CRR 5 LF MCRRL 4 MLFL 3 MCRRN 2 MLFN1 1 MLFN2 0 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25 3.5 量測總變異 (20,3,2)量測總變異的均方誤差比較圖 Given npk value being fixed, increasing the number of operators is suggested first. The second choice is to increase the number of parts. Increasing the number of repetitions is not recommended. 30 comparison of estimators For the case without interaction Mean ratios of estimated gauge variances under various npk values ANOVA estimator is the most closest to 1 and is the best one. 1.600 ANOVA 平均真值比 1.400 CRR 1.200 LF 1.000 MCRRL MLFL 0.800 MCRRN 不同參數組合數之量測總變異的平均真值比之比較圖 0.600 MLFN1 60 80 90 100 120 135 150 160 180 200 225 240 300 MLFN2 參數組合npk LF, MLFN1, MLFL, and MLFN2 methods are close to one another, and there is only little difference among them and ANOVA method. CRR, MCRRN, and MCRRL methods are the worst. LF, ANOVA, MLFN1, MLFL, and MLFN2 won’t change as the npk increases while MCRRL, MCRRN, and CRR get closer to true value. 31 comparison of estimators For the case without interaction Variance of estimated gauge variances under various npk values 變異數 14.000 12.000 ANOVA 10.000 CRR 8.000 LF 6.000 MCRRL 4.000 MLFL 2.000 MCRRN 不同參數組合數之總變異的變異數比較圖 0.000 60 80 90 100 120 135 150 160 180 200 225 240 300 參數組合npk MLFN1 MLFN2 ANOVA, MLFN1, MLFL, MLFN2, and LF methods are close to one another. CRR, MCRRN, MCRRLare the worst. All the variances decreases as the npk values increase. When the npk value equals 160, all the variance estimators decrease rapidly and then become steady thereafter. 32 comparison of estimators For the case without interaction MSE of estimated gauge variances under various npk values ANOVA, MLFN1, MLFL, 均方誤差 16.000 14.000 ANOVA 12.000 CRR 10.000 LF 8.000 MCRRL 6.000 MLFL 4.000 2.000 MCRRN 不同參數組合數之量測總變異的均方誤差之比較圖 0.000 MLFN1 60 80 90 100 120 135 150 160 180 200 225 240 300 參數組合npk MLFN2 MLFN2, and LF methods are the same good. CRR, MCRRN, and MCRRL are the worst. All the variances decreases as the npk values increase. When the npk value equals 160, all the variance estimators decrease rapidly and then become steady thereafter. 33 comparison of estimators For the case without interaction The MSE values of estimated gauge variances while npk equals 120. 5 25 ANOVA CRR 3 LF 2 MCRRL 1 MLFL ANOVA 20 均方誤差 均方誤差 4 CRR 15 LF 10 MCRRL MLFL 5 MCRRN 0 1.25 1.5 2.25 2.5 MLFN1 MLFN2 量測總變異 ANOVA 均方誤差 6 CRR LF 4 MCRRL 2 MLFL MCRRN 0 2.25 1.5 2.25 MLFN1 2.5 MLFN2 (20,2,3)量測總變異的均方誤差比較圖 8 1.5 1.25 量測總變異 (15,4,2)量測總變異的均方誤差比較圖 1.25 MCRRN 0 2.5 MLFN1 MLFN2 Given npk value being fixed, increasing the number of operators is suggested first. The second choice is increasing the number of parts. Increasing the number of repetitions is not recommended. 量測總變異 34 (20,3,2)量測總變異的均方誤差比較圖 Conclusion MLFN1 and MLFN2 are good estimators both in the cases of with interaction and without interaction. MLFN2 method is a little better than MLFN1. Under the case with interaction, MLFN1, MLFN2, and MCRRN methods are better than Classical R&R and Long Form methods. MLFN2 estimator is the same good as ANOVA method. Suggest using MLFN2 method, both its accuracy and precision are the same good as ANOVA method no matter there is interaction or not. 35 Conclusion Given npk value being fixed, increasing the number of operators is suggested first. The second choice is increasing the number of parts. Increasing the number of repetitions is not recommended. At least three operators is suggested so that the variance and MSE of estimated gauge variance will be small enough. An npk value of 160 is suggested so that the variance and MSE of estimated gauge variance decrease rapidly and then become steady thereafter. 36 Thanks for your attention 37