WMKO Next Generation Adaptive Optics:
Build to Cost Concept Review
Peter Wizinowich et al.
January 15, 2009 DRAFT
Presentation Sequence
•
•
•
•
Introductions
Build-to-Cost Guidelines & the Challenge
Build to Cost Concept Review Success Criteria
Cost Reduction Approach
• Revised Starting Point
• Conclusion
2
Introductions
• Reviewers (to be
confirmed):
– Brent Ellerbroek (TMT)
– Mike Liu (UH)
– Jerry Nelson (UCSC)
• Directors
• NGAO Senior
Management Team
3
Build-to-Cost Guidelines
Provided by the Directors & SSC co-chairs in Aug/08
• $60M cost cap in then-year dollars
–
–
–
–
From start of system design through completion
Includes science instruments
Must include realistic contingency
Cap of $17.1M in Federal + Observatory funds ($4.7M committed)
• An internal review of the build to cost concept to be held
and reported on no later than the Apr/09 SSC meeting
4
The Challenge
• Previous estimate ~$80M in then-year dollars
– NGAO estimate at SDR, including system design (SD), ~ $50M
– Science instrument estimate at proposal ~ $30M
– Instrument designs were not part of the NGAO SDR deliverables
5
Review Success Criteria
• The revised science cases & requirements continue to
provide a compelling case for building NGAO
• We have a credible technical approach to producing an
NGAO facility within the cost cap and in a timely fashion
• We have reserved contingency consistent with the level of
programmatic & technical risk
These criteria, plus the deliverables & assumptions (next
page), were approved at the Nov. 3, 2008 SSC meeting
6
Review Deliverables & Assumptions
•
Deliverables include a summary of the:
–
–
–
–
–
•
Revisions to the science cases & requirements, & the scientific impact
Major design changes
Major cost changes (cost book updated for design changes)
Major schedule changes
Contingency changes
Assumptions
– Starting point will be the SD cost estimate with the addition of the science
instruments & refined by the NFIRAOS cost comparison
•
Better cost estimates will be produced for the PDR
– No phased implementation options will be provided
•
Some may be for the PDR to respond to the reviewer concerns
– Major documents will only be updated for the PDR
•
SCRD, SRD, FRD, SDM, SEMP
– Will take into account the Keck Strategic Planning 2008 results
7
Cost Reduction Approach
•
•
•
•
Review & update the science priorities
Review other changes to the estimate (NFIRAOS cost comparison)
Update the cost estimate in then-year $
Present & evaluate the recommended cost reductions
– On an individual basis
– As a whole including performance predictions
•
•
Present revised cost estimate
Revisit review success criteria & deliverables
8
Science Priorities (from the NGAO SDR)
Five key science drivers were developed for the NGAO SDR (KAON 455):
1. Galaxy assembly & star formation history
2. Nearby Active Galactic Nuclei
3. Measurements of GR effects in the Galactic Center
4. Imaging & characterization of extrasolar planets around nearby stars
5. Multiplicity of minor planets
•
We will discuss how our recommended cost reductions impact this
science.
9
Science Priorities (from the SDR Panel)
From the SDR review panel report (KAON 588) executive summary:
•
The panel supported the science cases
–
–
•
The panel was satisfied with the science requirements flow down & error budget
–
–
–
•
“The science requirements are comprehensive, and sufficiently analyzed to properly flow-down
technical requirements.”
“The error budget is sufficiently developed at this stage of the project and meets the science
requirements.”
“… high Strehl ratio (or high Ensquared Energy), high sky coverage, moderate multiplex gain,
PSF stability accuracy and PSF knowledge accuracy … These design drivers are well justified
by the key science cases which themselves fit well into the scientific landscape.”
The panel was concerned about complexity & especially the deployable IFS
–
–
•
“The NGAO Science cases are mature, well developed and provide enough confidence that the
science … will be unique within the current landscape.”
“The review panel recommends proceeding with the Preliminary Design phase because of the
appealing science cases of NGAO and time constraints for the competition.”
“However, the review panel believes that the actual cost/complexity to science benefits of the
required IFS multiplex factor of 6 should be reassessed.”
“… recommends that the NGAO team reassess the concept choices with a goal to reduce the
complexity and risk of NGAO while keeping the science objectives.”
The panel had input on the priorities
–
“The predicted Sky Coverage for NGAO is essential and should remain a top requirement.”
10
Science Priorities (from the Keck Scientific Strategic Plan)
From the Keck SSP 2008:
•
•
•
•
•
“NGAO was the unanimous highest priority of the Planetary, Galactic, &
Extragalactic (in high angular resolution astronomy) science groups. NGAO
will reinvent Keck and place us decisively in the lead in high-resolution
astronomy. However, the timely design, fabrication & deployment of NGAO
are essential to maximize the scientific opportunity.”
“Given the cost and complexity of the multi-object deployable IFU instrument
for NGAO, which was primarily motivated by faint galaxy kinematics
observations, the multi-IFU instrument should be the lowest priority part of the
NGAO plan.”
Planetary recommendations in priority order: higher contrast near-IR imaging,
extension to optical, large sky coverage.
Galactic recommendations in priority order: higher Strehl, wider field, more
uniform Strehl, astrometric capability, wide field IFU, optical AO
Extragalactic high angular resolution recommendations in priority order:
science where the benefits come from the highest possible angular resolution,
observations limited by S/N
11
Flowdown of Science Priorities
(resultant NGAO Perspective)
Based on the SDR science cases, SDR panel report & Keck Strategic Plan:
1. High Strehl.
•
•
Required directly, plus to achieve high contrast NIR imaging, optical AO, highest
possible angular resolution, high throughput NIR IFU & high SNR
Required for AGN, GC, exoplanet & minor planet key science cases
2. NIR Imager.
•
Required for all key science cases.
3. Large sky coverage.
•
Priority for all science.
4. NIR IFU with high throughput & larger format.
•
Required for galaxy assembly, AGN, GC & minor planet key science cases
5. Visible imager to 850 nm.
6. Visible IFU.
•
Remove the deployable multi-IFS instrument from the NGAO plan.
–
–
Not supported by Keck Strategic Plan 2008 or SDR review panel
Provides an immediate significant cost reduction
12
Results of NFIRAOS Cost Comparison
NFIRAOS cost comparison (KAON 625) conclusions:
• NGAO is traceably less expensive than NFIRAOS & we understand
why
• Some areas identified that require more work:
– Contingency rates need to be re-evaluated
•
At minimum should be increased for laser & potentially for RTC
– Laser procurement estimate needs to be more solidly based
•
Will have ROMs soon & a fixed price quote for PDR through ESO collaboration
– Minor items: Laser system labor & cost of RTC labor
•
NFIRAOS comparison was worthwhile for determining confidence in
NGAO estimate.
– Methodology largely gave us reasonable system design estimates
13
Revised Starting Point
Start from SDR cost estimate
+ additional contingency (per NFIRAOS cost comparison)
•
•
$680k for laser to increase laser contingency from 19 to 30%
Additional $450k to increase overall contingency from 22 to 25%
+ updated instrument cost estimates (no instrument designs yet)
+ no deployable multi-IFU (fixed NIR IFU instead)
+ 3.5% inflation/year
NGAO System
System Design
Preliminary Design
Detailed Design
Full Scale Development
Delivery & Commissioning
Additional Contingency =
NGAO Total =
NIR Imager
NIR IFU
Visible Imager
Contingency
NGAO Instrument Total =
Overall Total =
Actuals ($k)
FY07
FY08
739
495
214
739
739
709
709
FY09
1800
1800
200
50
250
2050
FY10
1634
1600
3234
482
240
50
772
4006
Plan (Then-Year $k)
FY11
FY12
FY13
5500
5500
907
606
499
300
2312
7812
3036
7468
10504
1044
1300
1161
600
4105
14609
13913
300
14213
978
1400
948
1000
4326
18539
FY14
9600
2223
400
12223
157
1404
879
534
2974
15196
FY15
2301
445
2745
162
162
2908
Total
1234
3649
10136
30980
4524
1145
51667
3769
5000
3650
2484
14902
66569
14
Revised Starting Point
Very ambitious spending profile both for finding funds & ramping up effort.
–
–
Highly desirable to maximize science competitiveness.
Slow current start-up rate imposed by available funds.
NGAO Spending Profile
20000
18000
System
16000
Then-Year $k
•
Instruments
14000
Total
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
Fiscal Year
15
Cost Reductions – Laser Beacons
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•
•
•
•
Reduce total laser power from 100W to 75W.
Reduce number of LGS beacons from 9 to 7.
Fix central four LGS beacons.
Assume lasers on elevation journal.
Combined savings = $2.6M.
16
Cost Reductions – Laser Beacons
•
Reduce total laser power from 100W to 75W (50W in central asterism)
& number of LGS beacons from 9 to 7 (6 to 4 in central asterism).
– In worse case (ExoJupiter science case & best seeing) rms wavefront
error increases from 160 nm to 167 nm  SR(J) reduced by 6%.
– Optimal number of subapertures across pupil reduced from 64 to 56.
Degraded laser
power tradeoffs
KAON XXX
17
Cost Reductions – Science Instruments
•
Do not implement visible imager.
– But provide limited, to 850 nm, visible science with NIR imager.
•
•
Do not implement OSIRIS with NGAO.
Combined savings = $4.3M.
18
Cost Reductions – Opto-mechanical
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Only refrigerate the NGAO science path optics.
Do not implement the TWFS in the narrow field relay.
Change the wide field relay TWFS from NIR to visible.
Use single level cascaded relay design.
Simplify dichroic switchyard.
Do not implement an ADC for the NGS WFS.
Only implement 2 of 3 LGS WFS lenslet arrays.
Combined savings = $0.9M.
19
Cost Reductions – Overall
•
•
•
•
Reduced non-RTC devices & complexity.
Reduced RTC complexity.
Reduced project management & systems engineering.
Combined savings = $0.8M.
20
Revised Cost Estimate
Assuming all cost reductions can be achieved:
739
739
709
709
FY09
1800
Plan (Then-Year $k)
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY10
1634
1357
1800
200
50
2991
482
240
250
2050
50
772
3763
5235
5235
907
606
100
300
1913
7148
3036
6411
11313
9447
1044
1300
200
600
3144
12591
300
11613
978
1400
100
700
3178
14790
FY14
FY15
9600
2223
400
12223
157
1404
0
184
1745
13967
2301
445
2745
0
0
0
2745
Total
1234
3649
9628
27323
4524
1145
47501
3769
5000
400
1834
11002
58504
NGAO Spending Profile with Descopes
16000
14000
System
Instruments
12000
Total
The-Year $k
NGAO System
System Design
Preliminary Design
Detailed Design
Full Scale Development
Delivery & Commissioning
Additional Contingency =
NGAO Total =
NIR Imager
NIR IFU
Visible Imager
Contingency
NGAO Instrument Total =
Overall Total =
Actuals ($k)
FY07
FY08
739
495
214
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
Fiscal Year
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
21
Conclusions
22