Keck NGAO Proposal:
Management Overview
Presenter:
P. Wizinowich
SSC Meeting
June 21, 2006
1
Presentation Sequence
• Development Process
• NGAO Project
• Schedule, WBS, Budget
• System Design Phase
• Deliverables, Plan, Schedule, Budget
• Management status & next steps
2
WMKO Development Process
Design
and
Development
Delivery
and
Commissioning
Science
Verification
Facility Class
Operation
End of Life Decommissioning
New
Instrument
Proposal
System
Design
Science Need
Preliminary
Design
Detailed
Design
Full-scale
Development
We are here
Next step
3
NGAO Project: Milestones
Year Month
Milestone
06
July System design phase starts
07
June 1st major funding secured
07
08
10
12
Sept
Dec
Mar
Mar
System Design Review
Preliminary Design Review
Detailed Design Review
AO & LGS facility pre-ship reviews
12
13
13
Dec
Jun
Dec
NGS 1st light
LGS 1st light
Shared-risk science begins
This is only a first-cut timeline
4
NGAO Project: Top-level WBS
5
PW
NGAO Project: AO Budget
AO Cost Estimate = $35M  $10M
• Estimation approach 1: Comparison to other systems
•
Gemini-S MCAO - $18M in 03 dollars.
•
•
Gemini-S GPI - $19M + $6M reserve
•
•
Add $15M for LGS & subtract $5M for instrument  $35M
TMT NFIRAOS - $25 for AO & $24M for LGS
•
•
Add $7M for 2 additional lasers + 4% inflation  $29M
Subtract $10M for simpler system  $39M
Estimation approach 2: Bottoms-up cost estimate
Procure
WBS
Subsystem
($k)
1 Design & Sys Eng
50
2 AO System
7207
3 Laser System
12233
4 Operations tools
0
6 Telescope I&T
50
7 Ops Transition
0
8 Management
600
Ops Spares (5%)
972
Contingency (25%)
5035
Total = 26147
Design Implement
(FTE)
(FTE)
11.9
2.5
19.0
3.2
6.7
5.0
1.0
1.2
3.7
3
16
10
51
FTE
($k)
1727
2280
388
800
600
120
592
0
1627
8134
Total
($k)
1777
9487
12621
800
650
120
1192
972
6662
34281
Estimation
methods agree
6
NGAO Project: Instrument Budget
•
Cost Estimate = $20M  $4M for 1st three instruments
Instrument
ROM
Cost Anchor
Near-IR Imager
$3M
G-S NIR imager ~ $3.5M + 1
vs 4 H2-RG
Visible Imager
$3M
LRIS-R upgrade ~ $1.5M;
camera/filters $1M; SW $0.5M
Deployable NIR IFU
$14M
TMT IRMOS ~$42M for 10 IFU
+ AO; ~$1.6M/IFU for 6
Near-IR IFU
$7M
OSIRIS ~$5.5M + new
detector
Visible IFU
$4.5M
Thermal NIR Imager
$3M
OSIRIS without full cryo, 4x4K
deep depletion CCD, slicer
Similar to NIR, smaller but
more expensive detector
7
System Design: Objectives
•
•
Establish design approach that meets the
scientific & user requirements
Establish discipline integrated engineering plan
for the proposed design
•
•
Understand technical risks, trade-offs, performance
estimates, cost to completion
Key deliverables
•
•
•
•
Systems Requirements Document
System Design Manual
Systems Engineering Management Plan
Systems Design Report
8
System Design: Project Schedule
Plan based on delivery of 4 key documents
Plan includes schedule & person-hours
9
System Design: Project Schedule
System requirements need science team effort
• Budget includes 3 graduate students & 1 postdoc
10
System Design: Project Schedule
System design will utilize expertise & resources at
CIT, UC & WMKO
11
System Design: Project Schedule
System Engineering Management Plan
12
SD: Risk Assessment & Management
•
Detailed risk assessment spreadsheet produced
•
•
•
•
~40 items identified during initial point design development
Severity & probability of each item indicated along with risk
mitigation plan
During system design each risk area will be further
addressed as either part of the planned trade studies
&/or as part of risk assessment
Risk management process includes balancing scientific
& technical performance, cost & schedule
13
System Design: Budget
Cost Estimate = $980k
• Basis:
•
•
•
12400 hrs or 6.4 FTE eng/scientist * $120k/yr = $770k
5500 hrs for 3 grad students + postdoc = $150k
$40k for travel + $20k for procurements
•
Only 3% of total NGAO budget  system design phase
budget may be low
•
Believe we have properly identified path forward &
have a clear idea of how to proceed
A more detailed estimate will be prepared as
individuals identified & next level of detail added to plan
•
14
Management Status
•
•
•
Observatory Directors plan to define the NGAO
management structure
More detailed NGAO system design phase
planning awaits management structure resolution
NGAO ready to become a real project
15
NGAO Project: Next Steps
NGAO is ready to become a real project:
• Ready to begin system design phase
• The project needs the following key personnel:
•
•
•
•
•
NGAO Project Scientist & science team lead
development & iteration of science requirements
•
•
•
Principal Investigator
Project Scientist + Science Team
Project Manager
Systems Engineer
Volunteer model unsustainable
Need to take advantage of expertise & resources at
CIT, UC & WMKO in system design
Form NGAO Science Advisory Committee to provide
high level science guidance
16