Bayesian Logic Programs for Plan Recognition and Machine Reading Sindhu Raghavan Advisor: Raymond Mooney PhD Oral Defense Nov 29th, 2012 1 Outline • Motivation • Background – Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) • Plan Recognition • Machine Reading – BLPs for inferring implicit facts – Online Rule Learning – Scoring Rules using WordNet • Future Work • Conclusions 2 Outline • Motivation • Background – Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) • Plan Recognition • Machine Reading – BLPs for inferring implicit facts – Online Rule Learning – Scoring Rules using WordNet • Future Work • Conclusions 3 Machine Reading Machine reading involves the automatic extraction of knowledge from natural language text Example “Barack Obama is the current President of the USA……. Obama was born on August 4, 1961, in Hawaii, USA…….” Extracted facts nationState(usa) person(barackobama) isLedBy(usa,barackobama) hasBirthPlace(barackobama,usa) employs(usa, barackobama) Data is relational in nature - several entities and several relations between them 4 Characteristics of Real World Data • Relational or structured data – Several entities in the domain – Several relations between entities – Not always independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) • Presence of noise or uncertainty – Uncertainty in the types of entities – Uncertainty in the relations Traditional approaches like first-order logic or probabilistic models can handle either structured data or uncertainty, but not both. 5 Statistical Relational Learning (SRL) • Integrates first-order logic and probabilistic graphical models [Getoor and Taskar, 2007] – Overcome limitations of traditional approaches • SRL formalisms – – – – Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) [Muggleton, 1996] Probabilistic Relational Models (PRMs) [Friedman et al., 1999] Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) [Kersting and De Raedt, 2001] Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) [Richardson and Domingos, 2006] 6 Statistical Relational Learning (SRL) • Integrates first-order logic and probabilistic graphical models [Getoor and Taskar, 2007] – Overcome limitations of traditional approaches • SRL formalisms – – – – Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) [Muggleton, 1996] Probabilistic Relational Models (PRMs) [Friedman et al., 1999] Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) [Kersting and De Raedt, 2001] Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) [Richardson and Domingos, 2006] 7 Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) [Kersting and De Raedt, 2001] • Integrate first-order logic and Bayesian networks • Why BLPs? – Efficient grounding mechanism that includes only those variables that are relevant to the query – Easy to extend by incorporating any type of logical inference to construct networks – Well suited for capturing causal relations in data 8 Objectives Plan Recognition Machine Reading 9 Objectives Plan recognition involves predicting the top-level plan of an agent based on its observed actions Machine Reading 10 Objectives Plan Recognition Machine Reading involves automatic extraction of knowledge from natural language text 11 Common characteristics • Inference and learning from partially observed or incomplete data • Plan recognition – Top-level plan is not observed – Some of the executed actions can be unobserved • Machine Reading – Information that is implicit is rarely observed in data – Common sense knowledge is not always explicitly stated 12 Thesis Contributions • Plan Recognition – Bayesian Abductive Logic Programs (BALPs) [ECML 2011] • Machine Reading – BLPs for learning to infer implicit facts from natural language text [ACL 2012] – Online rule learner for learning common sense knowledge from natural language extractions [In Submission] – Approach to scoring first-order rules (common sense knowledge) using WordNet [In Submission] 13 Thesis Contributions • Plan Recognition – Bayesian Abductive Logic Programs (BALPs) [ECML 2011] • Machine Reading – BLPs for learning to infer implicit facts from natural language text [ACL 2012] – Online rule learner for learning common sense knowledge from natural language extractions [In Submission] – Approach to scoring first-order rules (common sense knowledge) using WordNet [In Submission] 14 Outline • Motivation • Background – Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) • Plan Recognition • Machine Reading – BLPs for inferring implicit facts – Online Rule Learning – Scoring Rules using WordNet • Future Work • Conclusions 15 Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) [Kersting and De Raedt, 2001] • Set of Bayesian clauses a|a1,a2,....,an – Definite clauses that are universally quantified – Range-restricted, i.e variables{head} Í variables{body} – Associated conditional probability table (CPT) • P(head|body) • Bayesian predicates a, a1, a2, …, an have finite domains – Combining rule like noisy-or for mapping multiple CPTs into a single CPT • Given a set of Bayesian clauses and a query, SLD resolution is used to construct ground Bayesian networks for probabilistic inference 16 Probabilistic Inference and Learning • Probabilistic inference – Marginal probability • Exact Inference • Sample Search [Gogate and Dechter, 2007] • Learning [Kersting and De Raedt, 2008] – Parameters • Expectation Maximization • Gradient-ascent based learning 17 Outline • Motivation • Background – Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) • Plan Recognition • Machine Reading – BLPs for inferring implicit facts – Online Rule Learning – Scoring Rules using WordNet • Future Work • Conclusions 18 Plan Recognition • Predict an agent’s top-level plan based on its observed actions • Abductive reasoning involving inference of cause from effect • Since SLD resolution used in BLPs is deductive in nature, BLPs cannot be used as is plan recognition 19 Extending BLPs for Plan Recognition Logical Abduction BLPs BALPs BALPs – Bayesian Abductive Logic Programs 20 Extending BLPs for Plan Recognition Stickel’s Abduction Algorithm BLPs BALPs BALPs – Bayesian Abductive Logic Programs 21 Experimental Evaluation • Data • Monroe [Blaylock and Allen, 2005] • Linux [Blaylock and Allen, 2005] • Story Understanding [Ng and Mooney, 1992] • Systems compared – – – – – BALPs MLN-HCAM [Singla and Mooney, 2011] Blaylock and Allen’s system [Blaylock and Allen, 2005] ACCEL-Simplicity [Ng and Mooney, 1992] ACCEL-Coherence [Ng and Mooney, 1992] 22 Summary of Results • Monroe and Linux – BALPs outperform both MLN-HCAM and the system by Blaylock and Allen • Story Understanding – BALPS outperform both MLN-HCAM and ACCELSimplicity – ACCEL-Coherence outperforms BALPs and other systems • Specifically developed for text interpretation • Automatic learning of model parameters using EM 23 Outline • Motivation • Background – Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) • Plan Recognition • Machine Reading – BLPs for inferring implicit facts – Online Rule Learning – Scoring Rules using WordNet • Future Work • Conclusions 24 Machine Reading • Natural language text is typically “incomplete” – Some information is always implicit – Common sense information is not always explicitly stated – Grice’s maxim of quantity [1975] • Information extraction (IE) systems extract information that is explicitly stated [Cowie and Lenhert, 1996; Sarawagi, 2008] – Cannot extract information that is implicit 25 Example Natural language text “Barack Obama is the President of the United States of America.” Query “Barack Obama is a citizen of what country?” IE systems cannot answer this query since citizenship information is not explicitly stated. 26 Objective • Infer implicit facts from explicitly stated information – Extract explicitly stated facts using an off-the-shelf IE system – Learn common sense knowledge in the form of first-order rules to deduce additional facts – Use BLPs for inference of additional facts 27 Related Work • Logical deduction based approaches – Learning propositional rules [Nahm and Mooney, 2000] – Purely logical deduction is brittle since it cannot assign probabilities to inferences – Learning probabilistic first-order rules using FOIL and FARMER [Carlson et al., 2010; Doppa et al., 2010] – Probabilities are not computed using well-founded probabilistic graphical models • Use MLN based approaches for inferring additional facts [Schoenmackers et al., 2010; Sorower et al., 2011] – “Brute force” inference could result in intractably large networks for large domains – Scaling of MLNs to large domains [Schoenmackers et al., 2010; Niu et al., 2012] 28 Objectives • BLPs for learning to infer implicit facts from natural language text • Online rule learner for learning common sense knowledge from natural language extractions • Approach to scoring first-order common sense knowledge using WordNet 29 Outline • Motivation • Background – Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) • Plan Recognition • Machine Reading – BLPs for inferring implicit facts – Online Rule Learning – Scoring Rules using WordNet • Future Work • Conclusions 30 . Barack . .Obama is the current. President of . Obama was USA……. . August 4, born on System Architecture 1961, in Hawaii, USA. Training Documents BLP Weight Learner . . nationState(USA) . Person(BarackObama) . isLedBy(USA,BarackObama) . hasBirthPlace(BarackObama,USA) . hasCitizenship(BarackObama,USA) Information Extractor Extracted (IBM SIRE) Facts First-Order Logical Rules Rule learner nationState(B) ∧ isLedBy(B,A) hasCitizenship(A,B) nationState(B) ∧ employs(B,A) hasCitizenship(A,B) Bayesian Logic Program (BLP) BLP Inference Engine hasCitizenship(A,B) | nationState(B) , isLedBy(B,A) .9 hasCitizenship(A,B) | nationState(B) , employs(B,A) .6 hasCitizenship(mahathir-mohamad, malaysia) 0.75 Test Document Extractions nationState(malaysia) Person(mahathir-mohamad) isLedBy(malaysia,mahathir-mohamad) employs(malaysia,mahatir-mohamad) Inferences with probabilities 31 System Architecture Training Documents Information Extractor Extracted (IBM SIRE) Facts BLP Weight Learner First-Order Logical Rules Bayesian Logic Program (BLP) BLP Inference Engine Inferences with probabilities Inductive Logic Programming (LIME) Test Document Extractions 32 Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) for learning first-order rules Positive instances Target relation hasCitizenship (BarackObama, USA) hasCitizenship(X,Y) hasCitizenship (GeorgeBush, USA) Rules hasCitizenship (IndiraGandhi,India) . . ILP Rule Learner . . Negative instances hasCitizenship (BarackObama, India) hasCitizenship (GeorgeBush, India) hasCitizenship (IndiraGandhi,USA) . . nationState(Y) ∧ person(X)∧ isLedBy(Y,X) hasCitizenship (X,Y) KB hasBirthPlace(BarackObama,USA) person(BarackObama) nationState(USA) nationState(India) . . 33 Inference using BLPs Test document “Barack Obama is the current President of the USA……. Obama was born on August 4, 1961, in Hawaii, USA…….” Extracted facts nationState(usa) person(barackobama) isLedBy(usa,barackobama) hasBirthPlace(barackobama,usa) employs(usa, barackobama) Learned rules nationState(B) ∧ person(A) ∧ isLedBy(B,A) hasCitizenship(A,B) nationState(B) ∧ person(A) ∧ employs(B,A) hasCitizenship(A,B) 34 Logical Inference - Proof 1 nationState(B) ∧ person(A) ∧ isLedBy(B,A) hasCitizenship(A,B) nationState(usa) person(barackobama) isLedBy(usa,barackobama) hasCitizenship(barackobama,usa) 35 Logical Inference - Proof 2 nationState(B) ∧ person(A) ∧ employs(B,A) hasCitizenship(A,B) nationState(usa) person(barackobama) employs(usa,barackobama) hasCitizenship(barackobama,usa) 36 Bayesian Network Construction isLedBy (usa, barack obama) nationState (usa) person (barack obama) employs (usa, barack obama) hasCitizenship (barackobama, usa) 37 Bayesian Network Construction isLedBy (usa, barack obama) nationState (usa) person (barack obama) employs (usa, barack obama) hasCitizenship (barackobama, usa) 38 Bayesian Network Construction isLedBy (usa, barack obama) nationState (usa) person (barack obama) employs (usa, barack obama) hasCitizenship (barackobama, usa) 39 Bayesian Network Construction isLedBy (usa, barack obama) person (barack obama) nationState (usa) employs (usa, barack obama) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - dummy1 - - - - - - - - - - - - dummy2 hasCitizenship (barackobama, usa) 40 Experimental Evaluation • Data – DARPA’s intelligence community (IC) data set from the Machine Reading Project (MRP) – Consists of news articles on politics, terrorism, and other international events – 10,000 documents in total • Perform 10-fold cross validation 41 Experimental Evaluation • Learning first-order rules using LIME [McCreath and Sharma, 1998] – Learn rules for 13 target relations – Learn rules using both positive and negative instances and using only positive instances – Include all unique rules learned from different models • Learning BLP parameters – Learn noisy-or parameters using Expectation Maximization (EM) – Set priors to maximum likelihood estimates 42 Experimental Evaluation • Performance evaluation – Lack of ground truth for evaluation – Manually evaluated inferred facts from 40 documents, randomly selected from each test set – Compute precision – Fraction of inferences that are correct – Compute two precision scores • Unadjusted (UA) – does not account for extractor’s mistakes • Adjusted (AD) – account for extractor’s mistakes – Rank inferences using marginal probabilities and evaluate top-n 43 Experimental Evaluation • Systems compared – BLP Learned Weights • Noisy-or parameters learned using EM – BLP Manual Weights • Noisy-or parameters set to 0.9 – Logical Deduction – MLN Learned Weights • Learn weights using generative online weight learner – MLN Manual Weights • Assign a weight of 10 to all rules and MLE priors to all predicates 44 Unadjusted Precision 1 BLP Manual Weights BLP Learned Weights MLN Manual Weights MLN Learned Weights Logical Deduction 0.9 Unadjusted Precision 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Top−n inferences 45 Inferior performance of EM • Insufficient training data • Lack of ground truth information for relations that can be inferred – Implicit relations seen less frequently in training data – EM learns lower weights for rules corresponding to implicit relations 46 Performance of MLNs • Inferior performance of MLNs – Insufficient training data for learning – Use of closed world assumption for inference and learning – Lack of strictly typed ontology • GeopoliticalEntity could be an Agent as well as Location • Improvements to MLNs – Integrity constraints to avoid inference of spurious facts like employs(a,a) – Incorporate techniques proposed by Sorower et al. [2011] 47 Outline • Motivation • Background – Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) • Plan Recognition • Machine Reading – BLPs for inferring implicit facts – Online Rule Learning – Scoring Rules using WordNet • Future Work • Conclusions 48 Limitations of LIME • Assumes data is accurate – Negative instances artificially generated are usually noisy and inaccurate – Extraction errors result in noisy data • Does not scale to large corpora Develop an approach that can learn first-order rules from noisy and incomplete IE extractions 49 Online Rule Learning • Incorporates the incomplete nature of natural language text – Body consists of relations that are explicitly stated – Head is a relation that can be inferred • Relations that are implicit occur less frequently than those that are explicitly stated – Use frequency of occurrence as a heuristic to distinguish different types of relations • Process examples in an online manner to scale to large corpora 50 Approach • For each example, construct a directed graph of relation extractions • Add directed edges between nodes that share one or more constants – Relations connected by edges are related and participate in the same rule • Traverse the graph to learn first-order rules Learning from positive instances only 51 Example “Barack Obama is the current President of the USA……. Obama, citizen of the USA was born on August 4, 1961, in Hawaii, USA…….” Extracted facts nationState(USA) person(BarackObama) isLedBy(USA,BarackObama) hasBirthPlace(BarackObama,USA) hasCitizenship(BarackObama,USA) 52 Example “Barack Obama is the current President of the USA……. Obama, citizen of the USA was born on August 4, 1961, in Hawaii, USA…….” Extracted facts nationState(USA) person(BarackObama) isLedBy(USA,BarackObama) hasBirthPlace(BarackObama,USA) hasCitizenship(BarackObama,USA) Entities 53 Example “Barack Obama is the current President of the USA……. Obama, citizen of the USA was born on August 4, 1961, in Hawaii, USA…….” Extracted facts nationState(USA) person(BarackObama) isLedBy(USA,BarackObama) hasBirthPlace(BarackObama,USA) hasCitizenship(BarackObama,USA) Relations 54 Directed graph construction ? isLedBy (USA, Barack Obama) hasBirthPlace (Barack Obama, USA) hasCitizenship (Barack Obama, USA) isLedBy 33 hasBirthPlace 25 hasCitizenship 17 55 Graph Traversal isLedBy (USA, Barack Obama) hasBirthPlace (Barack Obama, USA) isLedBy(USA, Barack Obama) hasBirthPlace(Barack Obama, USA) 56 Graph Traversal isLedBy (USA, Barack Obama) hasBirthPlace (Barack Obama, USA) isLedBy(USA, Barack Obama) ∧ person(Barack Obama) ∧ nationState(USA) hasBirthPlace(Barack Obama, USA) 57 Graph Traversal isLedBy (USA, Barack Obama) hasBirthPlace (Barack Obama, USA) isLedBy(X, Y) ∧ person(Y) ∧ nationState(X) hasBirthPlace(Y, X) 58 Rules learned isLedBy(X, Y) ∧ person(Y) ∧ nationState(X) hasBirthPlace(Y, X) isLedBy(X, Y) ∧ person(Y) ∧ nationState(X) hasCitizenship(Y, X) hasBirthPlace(X, Y) ∧ person(X) ∧ nationState(Y) hasCitizenship(X, Y) 59 Sample rules employs(X, Y) ∧ commercialOrganization(X) hasMemberPerson(X, Y) isLedBy(X, Y) ∧ nationState(X) hasCitizenship(Y, X) isLedBy(X, Y) ∧ nationState(X) ∧ person(Y) hasBirthPlace(Y, X) 60 Experimental Evaluation • Learn first-order rules for 14 target relations – Full-set – Subset • 10 target relations • Manually set noisy-or parameters to 0.9 • Systems compared – Online Rule Learner (ORL) – LIME [McCreath and Sharma, 1998] – Combined 61 Full-set 1 ORL LIME COMBINED 0.9 Unadjusted Precision 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 Top−n 600 700 800 900 1000 62 Inferior performance of ORL on Full-set • Several incorrect inferences with high marginal probabilities – Instances of thingPhysicallyDamaged and eventLocationGPE – High probabilities due to multiple rules inferring these instances – Rules not very accurate resulting in inaccurate inferences 63 Subset 1 ORL LIME COMBINED Unadjusted Precision 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 Top−n 600 700 800 900 1000 64 Running Time ORL LIME 3.8 mins 11.23 hrs • LIME – Learns rules for one target relation at a time – Includes time taken to learn from positive only and from positive and negative examples • ORL – Learns rules for all target relations at once 65 Outline • Motivation • Background – Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) • Plan Recognition • Machine Reading – BLPs for inferring implicit facts – Online Rule Learning – Scoring Rules using WordNet • Future Work • Conclusions 66 Scoring first-order rules • Predicate names employ English words • Confident rules typically have predicates whose words are semantically related • Use word similarity or relatedness to calculate weights – Word similarity computed using WordNet • Compute weights between 0 and 1, which are then used as noisy-or parameters – Higher weights indicate more confident rules 67 WordNet [Fellbaum, 1998] • Lexical knowledge base consisting of 130,000 English words • Nouns, verbs, adjectives, and adverbs organized into “synsets” (synonym sets) • wup [Wu and Palmer, 1994] similarity measure to compute word similarity – Computes scaled similarity scores between 0 and 1 – Computes the depth of the least common subsumer of the given words and scales it by the sum of the depths of the given words 68 Scoring rules using WUP • Compute word similarity using wup for every pair of words (wi,wj) – wi refers to words in the body – wj refers to words in the head • Compute average similarity for all pairs of words • Predicate names like hasCitizenship and hasMember are segmented into has, citizenship, and member – Stop words are removed 69 Example employs(X,Y) ∧ governmentOrganization(X) hasMember(X,Y) 70 Example employs(X,Y) ∧ governmentOrganization(X) hasMember(X,Y) (employs, government, organization) (member) 71 Example employs(X,Y) ∧ governmentOrganization(X) hasMember(X,Y) (employs, government, organization) (member) Word pair employs, member government, member organization, member Average wup score .50 .75 .85 .70 72 Example employs(X,Y) ∧ governmentOrganization(X) hasMember(X,Y) (.70) (employs, government, organization) (member) employs(X,Y) ∧ person(Y) ∧ nationState(X) hasBirthPlace(Y,X) (.67) (employs, person, nation, state) (birth, place) 73 Scoring rules using WUP • WUP-AVG – Use words from both entities and relations – Use the average similarity between all pairs of words as the weight • WUP-MAX – Use words from both entities and relations – Use maximum similarity among all pairs of words as the weight • WUP-MAX-REL – Use words from relations only – Use maximum similarity among all pairs of words as the weight 74 Experimental Evaluation • Target relations – Full-set – Subset • Models – COMBINED • Rule scoring approaches compared – – – – – WUP-AVG WUP-MAX WUP-MAX-REL Default (Manual weights set to 0.9) EM (Weights learned from EM) 75 Full-set 1 Default WUP−AVG WUP−MAX WUP−MAX−REL 0.9 Unadjusted Precision 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Top−n 76 Subset 1 Default WUP−AVG WUP−MAX WUP−MAX−REL EM 0.9 Unadjusted Precision 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Top−n 77 Summary • BLP approach for inferring implicit facts with high precision • Superior performance of BLPs over purely logical deduction and MLNs • Efficient learning of probabilistic first-order rules using online rule learning • Efficacy of WUP-AVG for scoring first-order rules 78 Outline • Motivation • Background – Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) • Plan Recognition • Machine Reading – BLPs for inferring implicit facts – Online Rule Learning – Scoring Rules using WordNet • Future Work • Conclusions 79 Future Work • Plan recognition – Structure learning of abductive knowledge bases for BALPs – Comparison of BALPs to other SRL models • • • • ProbLog [Kimmig et al., 2008] PRISM [Sato, 1995] Poole’s Horn Abduction [Poole, 1993] Abductive Stochastic Logic Programs [Tamaddoni-Nezhad, Chaleil, Kakas, & Muggleton, 2006] 80 Future Work • Machine Reading – Large scale evaluation using crowdsourcing – Comparison of BLPs to existing approaches on machine reading [Schoenmackers et al., 2010; Carlson et al., 2010; Doppa et al., 2010; Sorower et al., 2011] – Alternate approaches to scoring rules • Use models from distributional semantics [Garrette et al., 2011] 81 Long-term Directions • Parameter learning – Using approximate inference techniques – Discriminative learning of parameters • Lifted inference for BLPs and BALPs 82 Conclusions • Demonstrated the efficacy of BLPs on two diverse tasks – Plan recognition • BALPs – Machine reading • Infer implicit facts from natural language text • Online rule learner for efficient learning of first-order rules from noisy IE extractions • Scoring first-order rules using WordNet 83 Conclusions • Demonstrated superior performance of BLPs over MLNs on both tasks • Contributions could have direct impact on the advancement of applications that use plan recognition and machine reading – SIRI – IBM’s Watson system 84 Questions 85