Crop Market News
Kim Anderson
7/12/2016
1
U.S. Drought Monitors
March 11, 2014
June 17, 2014
7/12/2016
2
U.S. Drought Monitors
March 11, 2014
March 10, 2015
7/12/2016
3
NOAA March, April, May
Temperature
Precipitation
7/12/2016
4
NOAA June, July, August
Temperature
Precipitation
7/12/2016
5
7/12/2016
6
Index of U.S. $ to Major Currencies
Wheat
Corn
Canola
$1.20
$0.80
$1.35
25%
7/12/2016
7
Crude Oil
50%
7/12/2016
8
Corn Market News
7/12/2016
9
World Corn Production: Percentage by Country
FSU-Ukr 1%
Ukraine 2%
1982
47%
Other
12%
U.S.
37%
Exports
70% - 39%
China 22%
EU-27 7%
Brazil 8%
Canada 1%
SE Asia 3%
Mexico 2%
Argentina
3%
Egypt
1%
S. Africa
1%
World Corn Imports: Percentage by Country
Brazil
1%
Egypt
6%
Other
39%
Japan
16%
S Korea
9%
China
2%
Canada
1%
EU-27
8%
SE Asia
8%
Mexico
9%
Corn
Item
Production
World
US
Use
World
End Stks
World
Stk-to-Use
Wld
2014 2015 04 Avg. 14 Avg % chg
(Billion Bushels)
39.0 38.2
14.2 13.6
24.6
10.1
36.0
12.7
46%
26%
38.4 38.5
25.1
35.6
42%
7.1
6.4
7.0
9%
19.0 18.4
20.8
16.6
-20%
7.3
U.S. Corn Situation
Year
Ending
Production Consumption Stocks
U. S.
Price
(Billion Bushels)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
12.1
13.1
12.4
12.4
10.8
13.8
14.2
13.6
12.1
13.1
13.1
12.5
11.1
13.5
13.7
13.8
1.67
1.71
1.13
0.99
0.82
1.23
1.78
1.69
$4.06
$3.55
$5.18
$6.22
$6.89
$4.46
$3.70
$3.50
7-YR Avg.
12.7
12.7
1.34
$4.86
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
Allendale, Inc.: Corn
Allendale, Inc. 800-262-7538
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
14
World Corn Situation
Year
Production
Consumption
Ending
Stocks
(Billion Bushels)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
31.4
32.3
32.8
34
34.2
38.9
39.0
38.2
30.8
32.4
33.5
34.8
34.1
37.5
38.4
38.5
5.8
5.7
5.0
5.3
5.4
6.8
7.3
7.1
5-YR Avg.
34.62
34.46
5.64
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
CBT Corn: Monthly Nearest
<1.0
1 – 1.4
>1.4
CBT Corn: December 2015
Oklahoma -45 to - 25
Enid
-10
Panhandle 5 to 15
Sorghum -0.07 to $0.10)
17
Wheat Market News
7/12/2016
18
~85% wheat production northern hemisphere.
~77% wheat harvested May – Sept.
7/12/2016
19
World Wheat Production: 2008-2013 Avg.
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
3%
2%
Russia
8%
Other
9%
US
9%
India
13%
Argentina
Australia
2%
4% Canada
4%
EU-27
21%
China
17%
Pakistan
3%
Africa
2%
Sel. Mideast
2%
Brazil
1%
World Wheat Harvest: Percentage by Month
Mar
3%
Apr
9%
May
13%
Jun
17%
25%
Jul
17%
Feb
0%
Jan
1%
Dec
3%
Nov
2%
59%
Oct
5%
7/12/2016
Sep
9%
80%
Aug
21%
21
Wheat
Item
Production
World
US
Use
World
End Stks
World
Stk-to-Use
Wld
2014 2015 04 Avg. 14 Avg % chg
(Billion Bushels)
26.3 26.6
2.2 2.1
21.4
2.1
25.3
2.1
18%
3%
26.6 26.3
21.9
25.3
16%
7.4
6.4
7.0
9%
27.7 28.1
29.2
27.7
-5%
7.3
U.S. Wheat Situation
Year
Ending
Production Consumption Stocks
U. S.
Price
(Billion Bushels)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.50
2.22
2.21
2.00
2.27
2.13
2.03
2.13
2.28
2.02
2.42
2.23
2.41
2.43
2.08
2.21
.657
.976
.862
.743
.718
.590
.692
.763
$6.78
$4.87
$5.70
$7.24
$7.77
$6.87
$6.00
$5.10
7-YR Avg.
2.19
2.27
.748
$6.46
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
Allendale, Inc.: Wheat
Allendale, Inc. 800-262-7538
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
24
Index of U.S. $ to Major Currencies
Wheat $1.20
Corn
$0.80
Canola $1.35
25%
7/12/2016
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
25
Index of Dollar vs. Major Currencies
Board of Governors of the Fed Reserve System
18%
$1.14
March ‘09
15%
March ‘08
20 yr avg. 108
June 1 ‘09
Daily Wheat Prices: June ‘08 – Feb ‘15
Avg = $6.37; Mode = $6.83; Min = $3.08 Max = $8.97
Precentage Days Above Price Levels
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
0%
13%
25%
37%
50%
62%
75%
87%
99%
KC Wheat: Monthly Nearest
June 2008
June 2010
n/a
<700
>700
KC Wheat: July ‘15
Harvest Delivery
-0.45  -0.12
$5.15  $5.48
Soybean Market News
7/12/2016
30
World Soybean Production: Percentage by Country
2008-2013
China
6%
Paraguay
3%
Brazil
29%
Other
11%
1982
65%
U.S.
34%
Argentina
18%
World Soybean Exports: Percentage by Country
2008-2013
Paraguay
5%
EU-27
China 0%
0%
1982
86%
Other
10%
U.S.
40%
Brazil
37%
Argentina
9%
World Soybean Imports: Percentage by Country
2008-2013
Mexico
4%
Other
19%
Japan
3%
EU-27
14%
China
60%
U.S. Soybean Situation
Year
Production Consumption
Ending
Stocks
U. S.
Price
(Billion Bushels)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.0
3.4
4.1
3.8
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.7
3.8
0.14
0.15
0.22
0.17
0.14
0.09
0.39
0.43
$9.97
$9.59
$11.30
$12.50
$14.40
$13.00
$10.20
$9.00
5-YR Avg.
3.3
3.1
0.19
$11.56
Allendale, Inc.: Soybeans
Allendale, Inc. 800-262-7538
35
World Soybean Situation
Year
Production
Consumption
Ending
Stocks
(Billion Bushels)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
7.79
9.59
9.70
8.80
9.88
10.43
11.58
11.58
8.13
8.75
9.25
9.70
9.60
10.03
10.60
10.97
1.58
2.23
2.59
1.97
2.10
2.44
3.28
3.83
5-YR Avg.
10.07
9.82
2.47
CBT Soybean: Monthly
7/12/2016
37
Kim’s Projections
• Wheat Cash
– Low $4.25
Cash
High $9.80
• Canola
– Low $5.50 High $12
• Corn
– Low $2.50 High $8.00
• Soybean
– Low $8.50
$5.30
Kim’s
June ’15 $5.20
$6.10
June ’15 $7
$3.70
Aug ’15 $3.50
FC
High $14.50 $9.00 Nov ’15 $9.20
Providing Inspiration for Agricultural Success
www.agecon.okstate.edu/anderson
Anderson/7/12/2016ppt.
Kim’s marketing
philosophy
Market land, labor,
capital, and management.
Sell the commodity.
Concentrate on keeping
costs low.
Price will take care of itself.
7/12/2016
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