Peak Phosphorus
Naomi Radke, seecon international GmbH
Peak Phosphorus
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Peak Phosphorus
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Contents
1. Introduction
2. Methodology and Analysis
3. Impact
4. Sceptics of the Hubbert Curve
5. Future Management of Phosphorus
Peak Phosphorus
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1. Introduction
Why Phosphorus?
All modern agricultural systems are dependent on
continuous input of phosphorus fertiliser (P)
as a nutrient for the plant.
Source: http://www.finegardening.com/howto/articles/fertilizing-basics.aspx [Accessed:
06.03.2013]
Thus, without phosphorus
fertiliser we cannot
produce food!
Source: FALL (2009)
But, where does phosphorus come from ...?
Peak Phosphorus
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1. Introduction
Where does Phosphorus come from?
Today, phosphorus
fertiliser is primarily
artificial, derived
from phosphate rock.
Source:
http://permaculturenews.org/2009/01/14/phosphorusmatters/ [Accessed: 07.03.2013]
Source: CORDELL et al. (2009)
Peak Phosphorus
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1. Introduction
Phosphate Rock Resources Worldwide
http://aquat1.ifas.ufl.edu/guide/hu
mimpac.html [Accessed: 29.09.2010]
Source: ROSEMARIN et al. (2009)
Peak Phosphorus
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1. Introduction
Phosphate Rock Resources Worldwide
• Of all artificial fertilisers phosphorus is the most limited
• Predictions for supply worldwide vary from 130 years max. to only
60 years
Source: ECOSANRES (2008)
Peak Phosphorus
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1. Introduction
The Phosphorus Peak
Phosphate rock is a non-renewable resource.
Thus its derivation will have a
PEAK
Currently, there are no
considerable alternatives
that could replace
phosphate rock on the
market!
Peak Phosphorus
which
• occurs when 50% of the
resource is used up
• from then on:
• production will
• market prices will
• exact time of global peak
is disputed
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2. Methodology and Analysis
The Phosphorus Peak
Peak phosphorus is calculated based on estimated P in current world
phosphate rock reserves. Area under Hubbert curve = depleted P
Estimated peak
of global
production:
in 2034
The modelled Hubbert curve of phosphorus production and
actual production (black dots)
Source: CORDELL ET AL. (2009)
Peak Phosphorus
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3. Impact
Fertiliser Prices affect Food Affordability
Fertiliser
prices are
rising
continuously.
Fertiliser prices are bound to world market prices – how long can farmers from the
“third world” afford them?
Source: http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04262007/Ethanol-Fertilizer-Natural-Gas.html. [Accessed 31.05.2010]
Peak Phosphorus
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3. Impact
World Rock Phosphate Production vs. World Population
• World Population () = World demand for phosphate fertilizers ()
• Future conflicts on the access to phosphate are likely, due to the limited
reserves and the concentration of significant minable resources in a
small number of countries. Source: WERNER et al. (n.y.)
Peak Phosphorus
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3. Impact
Global Food Production vs. World Population
World food production
increases relatively more
than world population
 When peak phosphorus
occurs, it will lead to a
food crisis
Source: http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/events/archive/2011/paa/david_lam.html
Peak Phosphorus
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3. Impact
What is the Link to Peak Oil?
Peak Phosphorus
• No replacement of
phosphorus as fertiliser for
food production
• Recyclable (within economic
and technical limits)
Peak Oil
• Replacement with other
forms of energy possible (e.g.
biofuels, renewable energies)
• Not recyclable
Link!
Oil price increased (due to proximity of peak oil)  demand for
biofuel crop production increased  demand in phosphorus fertilisers
increased  phosphorus peak comes closer
Peak Phosphorus
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4. Sceptics of the Hubbert Curve
Does a Peak truly exist for Scarce Resources?
Sceptics of the peak claim that:
• one scarce resource can infinitely be replaced by another resource
(according to neoclassical economic theory)
 BUT: there is no replacement for phosphorus in order for plants
to grow
• peaks exist but occur in the distant future
STILL
the Hubbert Curve with its peak gains traction as oil price drastically
increased in the last years.
Peak Phosphorus
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5. Future Management of Phosphorus
The Current Situation
The current system is inefficient!
 one-way street!
Mining and
Processing
Phosphate
Rock
Fertilizer
application
Harvest
Consumption
Excretion
Discharge
into
rivers/lakes
NPK
Peak Phosphorus
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5. Future Management of Phosphorus
Opportunities for Improving Efficiency
Mining and
Processing
Phosphate
Rock
Fertilizer
application
Harvest
Consumption
Excretion
Discharge
into
rivers/lakes
NPK
efficiency in
mining and
processing
phosphate rock
Peak Phosphorus
closing the phosphorus cycle
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5. Future Management of Phosphorus
Examples of Closing the Phosphorus Cycle
Capturing human and animal
excreta
• e.g. Urine diversion and faeces
dehydration for application as
fertilizer
Source: TILLEY et al. (2008)
Peak Phosphorus
Capturing food and crop
residues
• e.g. Composting
Source: GREEN PARENTHOOD (2010)
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5. Future Management of Phosphorus
Case studies of Capturing Human and Animal Excreta
Case study large-scale (Adapted from :RICHERT (2009); HORT (n.y.))
• Ecological Tenant-Owner’s Society, Stockholm, Sweden
• Housing complex with 32 flats
• Technology: urine-diverting dehydrating porcelain toilet with flush
(0,1 l/flush) for urine and dry faeces collection
• Urine stored in a large tank under the house
• Urine transported to a farm 3-4 times a year where it is stored in
large reservoirs and applied to the fields in spring
Peak Phosphorus
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5. Future Management of Phosphorus
Case studies of Capturing Human and Animal Excreta
Case study small-scale (Adapted from TILLEY et al. (2008))
• Allotment gardens in Cagayan de Oro, Philippines
• Toilets on 9 self-sustaining allotment gardens for 100
poor urban families
• technology: double-vault urine-diverting dehydrating toilet,
waterless urinal from recycled plastic container for men
• Urine stored in container under the toilet house (can be used
after 1 month storage), faeces (sawdust and lime added for
drying) dries for one year in a vault under the toilet house
• diluted urine and dried faeces used for fertilizing the garden
Peak Phosphorus
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5. Future Management of Phosphorus
Case study of Capturing food and crop residues
Case study small-scale (Adapted from KINOBE et al. (2010))
• Composting at households in Kitgum Town, Uganda
• 9 households composting their solid organic household waste
(primarily food waste)
• self-built compost heaps with windrow method (see middle photo)
• 4-5 months until organic waste turns into compost. Compost can be
used as fertilizer
• Steps:
preparation of waste
Peak Phosphorus
Source: KINOBE et al. (2010)
degradation of waste
Source: KINOBE et al. (2010)
curing and
screening of
compost
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4. Future Management of Phosphorus
The Challenge: Time Frame
... in order for the system to become more efficient,
the infrastructure has to be given !
Currently, the time frame used in the markets (e.g. fertiliser market)
and governmental institutions is short-term (5-10 years). Therefore,
phosphorus scarcity is not yet addressed adequately in policies and
market actions.
Think long-term!
A long-term (50-100 years) time frame is required in order to
understand, manage adapt the current system in a timely way and thus
to feed humanity without compromising the environment, livelihoods
and economies.
Peak Phosphorus
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4. Future Management of Phosphorus
The Challenge: Integrated Solutions
... in order for the system to become more efficient,
the infrastructure has to be given !
International institutional arrangements are INCONSISTENT with natural
phosphorus cycle:
Division
Water & Sanitation
Agricultural sector
sector
phosphorus =
phosphorus=
pollutant in wastewater
fertiliser commodity
Opportunity for
integrated solutions!
Source: RICHERT (2009)
Peak Phosphorus
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5. References
CORDELL, D., DRANGERT, J.-O., WHITE, S. (2009): The story of phosphorus: Global food security and food for thought. In: Global Environmental
Change 19, 292-305. Available at:
http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/CORDELL%20et%20al%202009%20%20The%20story%20of%20phosphorus.pdf
[Accessed: 05.03.2013]
ECOSANRES. (2008): Closing the loop on phosphorus. (=EcoSanRes Factsheet, No. 4). Harare (Zimbabwe): Stockholm Environment Institute EcoSanRes
Programme. Available at: http://www.ecosanres.org/factsheets.htm [Accessed: 27.09.2010]
FALL, A. (2009): Urban Urine Diversion Dehydration Toilets and Resuse Ouagadougou Brukina Faso - Draft. Eschborn: Sustainable Sanitation Alliance
(SuSanA). Available at: http://www.susana.org/images/documents/06-case-studies/en-susana-cs-armenia-hayanist-school.pdf [Accessed:
07.03.2013]
GREEN PARENTHOOD (Editor) (2010): 11 Green New Years Resolutions For 2011. Available at: http://www.greenparenthood.com/blog/2010/12/29/11green-new-years-resolutions-for-2011/ [Accessed: 30.03.2011]
HORT, N. ; EKBO (Editor) (n.y.): Alternatives to Conventional Wastewater Systems. Stockholm: Ecological Tenant-Owners’ Society in Orhem. Available
at: http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/URINE%20LARGE%20SCALE%20Stockholm%20Sweden.pdf [Accessed:
11.03.2013]
KINOBE, J.; OLWENY, S.; NIWAGABA, C. (2010): Composting at Households in Kitgum Town, Uganda - Draft. Eschborn: Susana. Available at:
http://www.susana.org/images/documents/06-case-studies/en-susana-cs-uganda-kitgum-town-composting-at-households-2010.pdf [Accessed:
11.03.2013]
PHADKE, S. (2009): Poo. Pune: Aman Setu Publication. Available at: http://www.susana.org/lang-en/library?view=ccbktypeitem&type=2&id=706
[Accessed: 05.03.2013]
RICHERT, A.; EcoSanRes (Editor); Richert Miljoekompetens (Editor) (2009): Large Scale Handling of Urine and Faeces. (pdf presentation). Stockholm:
Stockholm Environmental Institute. Available at:
http://www.sswm.info/sites/default/files/reference_attachments/RICHERT%202009%20Large%20scale%20application.pdf [Accessed:
11.03.2013]
ROSEMARIN, A. BRUIJNE, DE G., CALDWELL, I. (2009): Peak Phosphorus. The next inconvenient truth. In: The Broker Magazine, Issue 15. Leiden:
IDP.Available at: http://www.thebrokeronline.eu/Articles/Peak-phosphorus [Accessed: 11.03.2013]
TILLEY, E.; LUETHI, C.; MOREL, A.; ZURBRUEGG, C.; SCHERTENLEIB, R. (2008): Compendium of Sanitation Systems and Technologies. Duebendorf and
Geneva: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG). Available at:
http://www.eawag.ch/forschung/sandec/publikationen/index [Accessed: 15.02.2010]
WERNER, C. ,MANG, H. P., KLINGEL, F., BRACKEN, P. (n.y.): General Overview about ecosan. PowerPoint Presentation. Eschborn: Ecological Sanitation
Programme of the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) GmbH
Peak Phosphorus
“Linking up Sustainable Sanitation,
Water Management & Agriculture”
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Peak Phosphorus
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