Baseball's nerd machine
by DARREN EVERSON, The Wall Street Journal
Updated: May 27, 2008, 4:03 PM EST 33 comments
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The baseball box score, bless its little numerical heart, is dead. It lived a nice, long life — about 140 years — but it
has outlived its usefulness. Its archaic statistics, pilloried for years by serious statisticians, tell you only what players
have done, not what they're capable of doing. It's the past.
The future doesn't lie in newer, better statistics, however. It isn't really grounded in numbers at all. The future, like it or
not, is in pictures.
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Since 2006, Major League Baseball Advanced Media LP, baseball's swashbuckling digital arm, has quietly spent
approximately $4 million installing sensor cameras in major-league stadiums that can track and record the trajectory
of every pitch. The system, called Pitch f/x, made its public debut in the 2006 postseason. This season it became
operational in all 30 major-league parks.
It measures the "break," or off-line movement, of each pitch to an accuracy of within one inch, calculates the speed of
the ball near its release point and at home plate and creates an image of the ball's arc that is visible on a computer
screen. Observers can view the results on mlb.com.
While nobody is sure what this means for baseball, it is generating a great deal of talk. Earlier this month in San
Francisco, Sportvision Inc., the sports-entertainment technology company that helped develop the system, hosted a
Pitch f/x "summit." By the end, the stats wonks, engineers and nine team representatives in attendance could barely
contain themselves. "It's tremendously exciting for people like me," said Mat Olkin, a Kansas City Royals consultant.
Keith Woolner, the manager of research and analysis for the Cleveland Indians, said the ability to capture such
detailed measurements is "the next step" in baseball knowledge and strategy.
Since sportswriter Henry Chadwick ushered in the modern age of scorekeeping in the 1860s, the chief tool baseball
analysts have used is the naked eye. Statistics in the box score cover only what can be observed: the number of runs
the pitcher allowed, for example, or the doubles a hitter collected. Even the advanced "Moneyball" statistics
developed in recent years also rely on what can be seen and recorded by hand.
Pitch f/x starts baseball down the path of learning how players do things — which batter hits the ball the hardest,
which shortstop has the quickest reflexes, what pitcher has the nastiest slider. It showed, for instance, that St. Louis
Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright had one of baseball's most violent curve balls in 2007, with up to nine inches of
vertical drop and more than seven inches of horizontal movement. Perhaps consequently, Mr. Wainwright had an
unusually high rate of swings-and-misses against his curve (38% versus a league average of a little more than 25%),
according to a sampling of data by Harry Pavlidis, a baseball analyst who writes a prominent blog about the Chicago
Cubs.
Nearly everyone at the conference believed such advancements in measuring fundamentals could finally bring a
"why" to the "what" of box scores and stat sheets. The same technology will spread to hitting and fielding, they say,
and could be applied to other sports.
"Instead of saying, 'There's a hard smash to third base' we could say, 'That ball was hit 106 mph and the third
baseman had a third of a second to react.' " says Peter Jensen, a statistician and summit attendee who has written
for the Hardball Times, a baseball analysis site. "That adds some context that's been lacking so far."
The scene at the Pitch f/x summit was symbolic of baseball's increasing wonkiness. The 52 attendees — some of
them college professors — met to discuss how to improve the system and how to interpret its results. Participants
swapped theories about determining the coefficient of drag and made jokes about the difficulty analyzing Boston
pitcher Tim Wakefield's knuckleball. Nine major-league clubs sent representatives to the summit, including the New
York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
It isn't clear how many teams are using the data — although some clearly are. Before this season, Brian Bannister, a
Kansas City Royals starting pitcher, noticed that when batters connected with his pitches and put them in play, about
27% became base hits — a figure far lower than the typical 30%. Some analysts said Mr. Bannister was simply lucky.
But after checking the data from Pitch f/x, Mr. Bannister noticed batters who'd hit his curveball were much less
successful than those who'd hit his fastball. The upshot: his most effective pitch may be a hittable curve.
Not everyone is infatuated with this technology — a fact that became clear during Pitch f/x's debut on 2006
postseason telecasts on FOX. After its cameras clocked pitches from Detroit's Joel Zumaya at the unheard-of speed
of 103 mph, some fans assumed it was broken. Sportvision says the system was measuring the ball's speed at the
release point rather than in mid-flight, as radar guns do.
"I think this stuff is helpful in a way," says retired manager Jack McKeon, who won the 2003 World Series title with
the Florida Marlins, "but I still think you need to use your eyes."
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hardball_4_life
5/29/2008
11:47 AM
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yea baseball is a business and yeah umps aren't perfect but just bcuz somethin isnt perfect
doesnt mean u should just get rid of it thats half the excitement of baseball when there's a
close call at the plate and the fans on both sides think they should get it who has the best
vantage point...the umpire, when they do make a bad call and the coaches come out to argue
cuz their players go bak to them complainin who's gonna argue bak, a computer can freeze
up and stuff too do u want to wait even longer to reboot it no none of us do bottom line the
best part of any game is the anticipation when some1 hits a shot and every1 in the stands get
on their feet quackin not knowin if the ball will go and it finally does and the crowd erupts, this
is the same concept when theres a play at the plate and the ump runs everything through his
mind then the call is made of course ppl are gonna get ticked and others are gonna jump
around in excitement no matter wat theres two sides to ever story
redsoxrule666
5/29/2008
11:46 AM
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it can,t be any worse than the deaf dumb and blind men the call mlb umpires
Jalapeno Man
5/29/2008
11:27 AM
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even though this Pitch f/x can telll trainers, scounts, coaches , and players what pitchers are
throwing and how nasty the pitch may be, it will never take the human f/x out the game. Hitter
will still need to track the pitch from it's release and calculate in their own brain (not what a
computer says) trajectory and speed and make the adjustment to try and hit it.
All this technology has no place in Baseball. Baseball is pure and fair. It is the only game that
keeps us grounded. Human factor it's what is all about, it is life.
mkrough23
5/29/2008
11:18 AM
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Baseball is a business whether we like it or not. By neglecting to use new technologies, like
any other business, no longer will baseball be America's past-time, but America's past. Bring
new technologies while keeping old traditions! Stats will never vanish, just like little boys
throwing up balls to themselves hitting the winning run of the World Series!!
RussellBeckley
5/29/2008
11:17 AM
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If we are lucky, scientists will devise a system to accurately predict a winner. This will save us
from having to sit through nine, or any, innings. Saves on injuries and automobile traffic to the
game. Players won't need steroids because scientists can merely predict what will happen if
they took steroids, and adjust the results accordingly.
WaveMON
5/29/2008
11:13 AM
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I disagree with you GoColts.
I watched McGuire hit, what would normally be a pop fly, but was a homerun. So ROIDS do
make a difference.
GoColts!
5/29/2008
11:04 AM
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thank you STEELERCOUNTRY... this has been my arguement about BONDS for years now.
even if he did use ROIDS he still has to hit the damn ball. this is what makes baseball so
difficult. i cant say its the hardest sport, but it is difficult to play both O & D and be good at
both. i would have to say hockey or basketball would be the hardest american sport....
sedandun
5/29/2008
11:00 AM
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we call it 'hawkeye' here in the uk it is only used at the moment in tennis and cricket. very
successfully, more poer to the robot's elbow!
GIANTS/METS
5/29/2008
10:58 AM
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Danger will Robinson!
SteelerCountry08
5/29/2008
10:58 AM
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I think all of you, who are making stupid comments about umpires, need to get a life.
Baseball is the most true and hardest sport to play! Who cares whether an umpire calls a
ball when its a strike or a foul ball when its fair, PEOPLE ARE HUMAN! NO ONE'S
PERFECT!, you still have to hit the ball regardless of where its at.
Football just passed baseball, in my opinion, in america's greatest past time- because of ppl
who either never played the sport or never watched the sport. The game/umpires should
NEVER change- the players should- adapt to the environment like every other living
organism in the world!
svdital
5/29/2008
10:53 AM
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I'm of the younger generation that would hate to see the game become mechanized. That is
because I was raised to appreciate the great American past time as it is. All the technology
has done for this country is make us fat, lazy, and ungrateful for what we had. Why even
watch real ball players play, lets just play video games. After all with the right cheat codes you
can win all the time and never have to deal with an imperfect umpire again. The fact is we're
too lazy to even do that. (ha) We're too wrapped up in a game that we can't even appreciate
the human element of the game. The fans are about as bias as they get.
What will we do when we hit that perfect robotic utopia and we find out the computer was
tampered with or malfunctioned? You'll just have a new set of problems. I'll tell you this, when
baseball goes to a instant replay and robotic umps I'm not watching the game anymore. I'd
rather watch local little league and holler at the umps.
GIANTS/METS
5/29/2008
10:50 AM
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The umpiring job was created for a reason - to make the game fair by calling the plays as well
as the pitches rather than having the players argue about every call with one another. That
need will never go away. With this said i think some umps are pretty biased or incompetent.
steve3b1619
5/29/2008
10:48 AM
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Getting rid of umpires would be terrible. Sure there would be no inaccuracies, but you lose
the entire human aspect of the game. It's part of what makes baseball baseball. The strike
zone. Borderline calls. Jeffrey Maier. Baseball is a game of inches. Removing umpires from
the equation would severely affect the game, and i think that would be a negative effect.
pack_man04
5/29/2008
10:48 AM
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As a little league umpire for over 5 years I have seen a lot of baseball, and had to make many
judgement calls that a computer could not make. For example on an interferience call that
allowed a run to score and caused an out, can a computer determine if the run should count.
Instant replay should be intalled for homeruns and such but judgement calls should remain in
the umpires hands. Umpires get it right 99% of the time anyway, and computers are not
always acurate.
GIANTS/METS
5/29/2008
10:48 AM
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flvrflv...not ragging on you but the real Flav
GIANTS/METS
5/29/2008
10:46 AM
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Hey Ozzie what an idea! Get rid of the umpires. Then the players would have no one to argue
ball and strike calls with except each other. Leave it to Flava to come up with something that
inane
redcard64
5/29/2008
10:45 AM
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How can they do this to baseball? - pretty soon they'll be measuring performance in the
workplace and in the bedroom.
Cant anyone sit back and enjoy the game without reveling every moment of movement - I
suppose this will be used to predict future performance as well since no one seems to care to
live in the present. - rc64
Nowalks
5/29/2008
10:43 AM
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No umpires? What a stupid comment. Only a geek would want a computer to call balls and
strikes. I love my computer, but I don’t need it officiating my sports. Officials make mistakes,
but don’t we all? When was the last time you showed up for work and didn’t make a mistake?
Maybe we should replace all error prone people with computers. Umpires do a great job and
get most of the calls right.
I have one other comment. The game is not slow. People who make that comment do not
appreciate or understand the finer points of the game. If they’re not getting it in an instant
message or high speed internet it’s too slow.
People like some of you need to leave the game alone. You are only going to screw up the
most beautiful game in the world.
Get outside and get the house smell off of you. Learn to play the game.
Computers calling balls and strikes. Give me a break.
flvrflv
5/29/2008
10:38 AM
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I am not saying get rid of the umps. I have umpired many national tournaments and the
bottom line is to get the call right. By having a electronic strike zone, the umpire would have a
"buzzer" on his indicator. When it buzzed, a strike would be called...use technology and make
the zone acurate and unbiased to who is pitching/batting. It would make the job easier for
calling balls and strikes and speed up the game. I am just trying to think from outside the
box...no pun intended...lol
shiteater
5/29/2008
10:34 AM
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This is by far the worst articel i have read about sports in a long very time.
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