Explaining Change in Greek Policy towards
Turkey:
Balancing, Crusaders and Europeanisation
Kyriakos Moumoutzis, LSE
The puzzle

Since the mid-1980s, Greece had been
systematically trying to prevent the
development of EU-Turkey relations
 1999 Helsinki European Council: The EU
grants Turkey candidate country status
 Why did the Greek government give its
assent to the Turkish candidacy?
Explanations:
1) Balancing

Problem definition: Turkey as a threat
 Relevant developments: US policy in the postCold War era and the 1996 Turkish armaments
programme have weakened Greece vis a vis
Turkey
 Alternatives: Internal or external balancing
 Consequences and choice: External balancing can
accommodate economic policy goals
2) The crusader

Problem definition: The Prime Minister presents
his own understanding of the policy problem
 Relevant developments: The 1996 Imia/Kardak
crisis demonstrated policy failure and opened a
window for reform for Simitis whose style was
that of a crusader
 Alternatives: ?
 Consequences and choice: The course of action
that furthers the Prime Minister’s vision the most
is selected
3) Europeanisation I

Problem definition: Turkey as a threat
 Relevant developments: The 1996 Imia/Kardak
crisis demonstrates policy failure and enlargement
conditionality offers an alternative
 Alternatives: The national way or the EU way of
doing things
 Consequences and choice: Given foreign policy
failure, established EU practice can secure foreign
policy goals most effectively
4) Europeanisation II

Problem definition: Turkey as a weak democratic
regime
 Relevant developments: During EU level
interactions, Greek policy makers become
convinced of the appropriateness of this definition
of the problem
 Alternatives: The national way or the EU way of
doing things
 Consequences and choice: No consideration of
consequences, the course of action that is
considered appropriate within the EU context is
selected
Implications for research on
Europeanisation

Start with the outcomes of the process:
foreign policy change
 Identify other sources of foreign policy
change: alternative explanations
 Process tracing: the emphasis on “the point
of intersection” of the determinants of
foreign policy allows researchers to
establish causality