British Society for Population Studies – 2006 Annual Conference Programme
Monday 18
September
11.00am –
Registration
Murray
Building
Foyer
12.00pm
Lunch
Staff Social
Centre
1.002.30pm
Parallel
sessions
a. Estimation of
demographic rates
a – Murray
Lecture
Theatre
b – Lecture
Room C
c – Lecture
Room D
d – Lecture
Room B
1. Forecasting German
mortality via panel data
procedures. Bernhard
Babel, University of
Cologne
2. Using age and spatial
flow structures in the
indirect estimation of
migration streams.
James Raymer & Andrei
Rogers, University of
Southampton &
b. International
migration
Chair: Tony Champion
c. Historical
demography 1
Chair: Andy Hinde
d. Reproductive
health 1
Chair: John Cleland
1. Short-term migration
& temporary foreign
workers: Is it possible
to produce estimates of
short-term migration?
Julie Jefferies & Emma
Wright, Office for
National Statistics.
2. Geographical and
labour mobility in the
EU. Letizia Mencarini
1. Longitudinal and
cross-sectional
perspectives on fertility
in selected Scottish
settings in the late
nineteenth century.
Eilidh Garrett,
University of
Cambridge
2. ‘The years are too
short, the days are too
1. Economic strategies
& the risk of early
pregnancy loss in a
rural Bolivian
population. Virginia
Vitzhum, University of
Indiana.
2. Exploring the
circumstances
surrounding later
abortions. Roger
University of Colorado
3. Evolution of sex
differentials in mortality
among Israeli Jews.
Laura Staetsky,
Southampton
2.303.30pm
Plenary 1
Murray
Lecture
Theatre
3.304.30pm
Murray
Foyer
Plenary 1 –
Professor Juha Alho
Migration and aging:
Models and prospects.
Chair: Jane Falkingham
Extended tea break
& Ettore Recchi,
University of Florence
3. Globalisation,
population mobility and
the impact of migration
on population. Phil
Rees, University of
Leeds
long’: the variable
reporting of ages in
nineteenth-century
Scotland. Alice Reid,
University of
Cambridge
3. Long-run
improvement in life
expectancy since 1840:
Separating quantity and
efficiency in agespecific mortality
change. Jim Oeppen,
Max Planck Institute
for Demographic
Research.
Ingham, Steve
Clements, Ellie Lee &
Nicole Stone,
University of
Southampton &
University of Kent
3. Fertility limiting
behaviour &
contraceptive choice
among men in Nepal.
Govinda Dahal, UN
Economic Commission
for Europe.
4.306.30pm
Parallel
sessions
a – Murray
Lecture
Theatre
b – Lecture
Room C
c – Lecture
Room D
d – Lecture
Room B
a. 2001 Census
Chair: Clive Lloyd
1. Changes in tenure
patterns by ethnic group
in London boroughs,
1991 to 2001 Censuses.
Eileen Howes, GLA.
2. Samples of
Anonymised Records
2001: Progress and
potential. Jo Wathan,
CCSR, University of
Manchester.
3. Cornish ethnicity data
from the 2001 Census.
Malcolm Brown,
Cornwall CC.
4. Study of migration
based on the statistics of
the 2001 Census. Knud
Moller, Stoke on Trent
Council.
b. GIS – uses and
abuses
Chair: Paula Griffiths
c. European health
differentials
Chair: Gail Grant
d. Integration &
ethnicity
Chair: Baljit Bains
1. Achieving the
Millennium
Development Goal of
universal primary
education in
Bangladesh: How much
GIS can offer?
Mohammad Zahirul
Islam & Mohammad
Amirul Islam,
Karlsruhe University &
University of
Southampton
2. Small area estimates
of poverty and
vulnerability to climate
change in the
Brahmaputra River
Basin. Fiifi Amaoko
Johnson, Craig Hutton,
Zoe Matthews,
University of
Southampton.
3. Who is to blame?
The role of family,
community and state in
1. First generation
British Indo-Asian men:
Cardiovascular disease
mortality in relation to
childhood and
adulthood socioeconomic markers. T.
Tillin et al, Imperial
College, MRC
epidemiology unit,
University of Bristol,
and the University of
Dublin
2. From torture to
torment: Unwilling
migrants & the cost of
mental health care. S.
Goodall, Clinical
health Psychologist,
London.
3. Socio-economic
inequalities and
demographic
differentials in mental
and physical health of
the Greek elderly
1. Religion, nationalism
and demography: false
consciousness, real
consequences. Jon
Anson & Ofra Anson,
Ben Gurion University
of the Negev
2. Migration and
minority language use:
French Caribbeans in
metropolitan France.
Stephanie Condon,
INED.
3. Degrees of
separation: Religious
and ethnic mixing in
families and
neighbourhoods. David
Voas, University of
Manchester.
determining school
enrolment in Tajikistan.
Angela Baschieri and
Jane Falkingham.
University of
Southampton
4. School pupil
forecasting: Can GIS
improve our methods
and understanding?
Wendy Pontin, Norfolk
County Council
6.307.45pm
Murray
Foyer
8.00pm
Glen Eyre
Reception & poster
session – all
participants welcome
Dinner
Tuesday 19
September
7.30Breakfast
8.30am
Glen Eyre
population. G.
Verropoulou & C.
Tsimbos, University of
Piraeus.
9.0011.00am
Parallel
sessions
a – Murray
Lecture
Theatre
b – Lecture
Room D
c – Lecture
Room B
d – Lecture
Room C
a. ONS estimates
Chair: John Hollis
1. The ONS Improving
Migration and
Population Statistics
project: A progress
update. Roma Chappell
& Amanda Blunden,
Office for National
Statistics
2. Improving the
distribution of
international in-migrants
at UK country and
Government Office
Region (GOR) levels.
Giles Horsfield, Office
for National Statistics.
3. Methods for
distributing international
in-migrants at Local
Authority District level.
Jonathan Smith, Office
for National Statistics
4. Using alternative
sources to improve the
estimation of population
and migration statistics.
Briony Eckstein, Helen
b. Historical
demography 2
Chair: Alice Reid
1. Families and
households in
seventeenth century
London: a social
snapshot. Mark Merry
& Philip Baker, SAS,
University of London
2. Death on a strange
isle: the mortality of the
stone workers of
Purbeck in the
nineteenth century.
Michael Edgar & Andy
Hinde, University of
Southampton
3. Death and burial in
Newcastle/Gateshead,
1750-1850. Stuart A.
Basten, University of
Cambridge
4. Contrasting the
demographic
experience of suburban
& city parishes in
London, 1550-1750: A
case study of
c. Regional &
community health
Chair: Jane
Falkingham
d. Fertility in the UK
Chair: Paul Boyle
1. Accounting for low
fertility in Scotland
1. Urban South African relative to England.
Adolescents are
Elspeth Graham, Paul
consuming ‘western’
Boyle, John Ermisch,
diets. Chiedza Zingoni, Vernon Gayle, George
Paula Griffiths, Shane
Bouliotis, University of
Norris, Noel Cameron, St. Andrews, University
Loughborough
of Essex, University of
University & Wits
Stirling.
Medical School, South
2. Fertility & women’s
Africa. .
education: A cohort
2. Neighbourhood,
analysis. Mike Brewer,
community and family
Anita Ratcliffe, Sarah
wellbeing. A. Cullis,
Smith, Inst. For Fiscal
Institute of Education.
Studies and University
3. Household versus
of Bristol.
community socio3. Changes over time in
economic status and
later childbearing &
their relationships to
childlessness in Britain:
adolescent health in
The 1958 and 1970
urban Johannesburg and cohorts compared.
Soweto: What can
Roona Simpson,
community members
University of Edinburgh
tell us? Zoe Sheppard,
4. Fertility variations in
Paula Griffiths, Shane
Scotland. Paul Boyle,
Norris, John Pettifor,
Dan Allman, Ian Dey,
Evans & Folkert Van
Galen, Office for
National Statistics.
11.00-11.30
Murray
Foyer
11.301.00pm
Parallel
sessions
a – Murray
Lecture
Theatre
b – Lecture
Room C
c – Lecture
Clerkenwell &
Cheapside. Gill
Newton, University of
Cambridge
Noel Cameron,
Loughborough
University & University
of Witwatersrand.
4. Mapping child’s
health inequalities in
Nigeria: Contextual
influence of child’s
place of residence.
Kandala Bakwin &
John Micklewright,
University of Warwick
& University of
Southampton.
Zhiqiang Feng, Elspeth
Graham, Lynn
Jamieson, Fran Wasoff,
University of St.
Andrews & University
of Edinburgh
a. Estimates &
projections
Chair: Robin Edwards
b. Latin American
migration
Chair: Ludi Simpson
c. Fertility
Chair: Elspeth Graham
d. Labour markets &
education
Chair: Jane
Falkingham
1. Utilising population
projections for local
authority strategic
planning. Stuart Booker,
Fife Council
2. People, projections
and projects. Roy Lewis,
1. Cuban international
migration: Family and
Society. Consuelo
Martin
2. The internal
migrations process to
the urban zones of
Coffee
1. Government induced
fertility decline. Patrick
Carroll, PAPRI
2. De-secularisation?:
Religiosity, fertility and
politics. Eric
Kaufmann, Birkbeck
College, University of
e. Health
Chair: Zoe Matthews
1. Attitudes to life
style risk factors of
1. Father figures,
coronary heart disease
teenage pregnancy and among the various
the educational
South Asian groups
outcomes of orphans in and sub-groups. Giju
South Africa. Ian
George, De Montfort
Timaeus & Tania Boler, University
Room D
d – Lecture
Room A
e – Lecture
Room B
Essex CC
3. Demographic
estimates for London:
The truth? John Hollis,
GLA
Colombia. Adriana
Carolina Silva Arias,
Universidad Militar
‘Nueva Granada’
Colombia
3. Metropolitan
deconcentration and
new alternative
attraction regions in
Mexico, 1970-2000.
Angelica Reyna Bernal,
Universidad Autonoma
del Estado de Hidalgo,
Mexico.
London
3. Interpreting sex
ratios at birth: The case
of Singapore. Elspeth
Graham, University of
St. Andrews
London School of
Hygiene & Tropical
Medicine
2. Measuring Women’s
Work in Developing
Countries. Ray
Langsten, American
University in Cairo,
Rania Salem, Princeton
University.
3. Impact of the
demographic pressure
on the labour market in
urban India. Nandini
Das, International
Institute for Population
Sciences, Mumbai
2. Ethnic variation on
the impact of family
living arrangements on
child health: Findings
from the Millenium
Cohort Study. Lidia
Panico, Yvonne Kelly
& on behalf of the
ETHINC team,
University College
London
3. Health seeking
behaviour for 10
childhood illnesses in
urban South Africa. N.
Spark du Preez, PL.
Griffiths, Noel
Cameron,
Loughborough
University.
4. The importance of
considering puberty
when investigating the
association between
socio-economic status
and BMI in a cohort of
9/10 year old children
in urban South African
children. Paula
Griffiths, Z. Sheppard,
S. Norris, JM Pettifor,
N. Cameron,
Loughborough
University.
1.002.00pm
Staff Social
Centre
2.004.00pm
Parallel
sessions
a – Murray
Lecture
Theatre
b – Lecture
Room C
c – Lecture
Room D
d – Lecture
Room B
e – Lecture
Room A
Lunch
a. Household
projections & planning
Chair: Greg Ball
1. Household projections
in England. Dave King,
Anglia Ruskin University
2. Household projections
in Scotland. Esther
Roughsedge, General
Register Office for
Scotland.
3. Population and
housing forecasts for
output areas: Methods
and uses. Robin
Edwards, Hampshire CC
4. Population projections
and growth management
b. UK migration
Chair: Phil Rees
1. In-migration to
Cornwall: Stepping off
the treadmill? Stuart
Burley, University of
Plymouth & Cornwall
County Council.
2. Migration sources:
Links between NHSCR
and community health
index sources. Cecilia
Macintyre, GROScotland.
3. The indirect
estimation of elderly
migrant flows in
England and Wales.
c. Ethnicity –
estimates &
projections
Chair: Paul Voss
d. Child health
Chair: Paula Griffiths
1. Estimating the
impact of household
1. Deriving age-specific fuel pollution on the
fertility rates by ethnic
health status of young
group at the ward level children. P. Nasanenfor Bradford: an
Gilmore & Emily
assessment of six
Rousham,
promising strategies.
Loughborough
Lee Williamson,
University.
University of
2. Socio-economic
Manchester
determinants of
2. Analysing population pubertal development in
change of ethnic groups an urban South African
in England and Wales
cohort. Laura Jones,PL
between 1991 and 2001 Griffiths, S. Norris, J.
using a variety of small Pettifor, N. Cameron,
e. International
fertility
Chair: David Clifford
1. Stopping sooner or
starting later? Fertility
decline in Uzbekistan.
David Clifford,
University of
Southampton
2. Socio-economic
development, the
social structure &
Kenya’s fertility
transition. Ekisa
Anyara & Andy Hinde,
Southampton
3. The highest fertility
in Europe – for how
in Miami-Dade County,
Florida. Oliver Kerr,
Miami-Dade County
The following paper will
no longer be presented at
the Conference, but a
full-text PDF is available
via the Conference
abstracts - Population
forecasting:
Epistemological
considerations. Anatole
Romaniuc, University of
Alberta
4.004.30pm
Murray
Foyer
Tea
Guy Abel, University of
Southampton.
4. Socio-spatial
contexts of second
generation immigrant
progress:
Understanding local
labour market structures
and intergenerational
mobility. Jamie
Goodwin-White,
University of
Southampton.
areas. Albert Sabater,
University of
Manchester
3. Population
projections for ethnic
groups in London.
Baljit Bains, GLA
Loughborough
University
3. Determinants of
neonatal mortality in
Bangladesh.. S. Hall,
University of
Southampton
4. Are health care
providers biased
towards boys? Evidence
from public health
facilities in Egypt. R.
Langsten,Emily Dixon,
Mahmoud el-Mougi
American University in
Cairo & Al-Azhar
University, Cairo.
long: The analysis of
fertility change in
Albania based on
individual data.
Arnstein Aassve, Arjan
Gjonca, Letizia
Mencarini, University
of Essex, LSE,
University of Florence
4. From first to second
child in Italy: Do child
care arrangements
matter? Francesca
Fiori, University of
Rome ‘La Sapienza’
4.305.30pm
Murray
Lecture
Theatre
Plenary 2 –
Professor William
Clark.
Global flows and
national outcomes:
How international
migration is
transforming local
communities.
Chair: Tony Champion
5.307.30pm
Parallel
sessions
a – Murray
Lecture
Theatre
b – Lecture
Room C
c – Lecture
Room D
d – Lecture
Room B
a. Small area
populations
Chair: Piers Elias
1. Test driving a smallarea population
forecasting model:
Seeking additional
horsepower through
updated engineering and
non-demographic fuel
additives. Paul Voss &
Guangqing Chi,
University of Wisconsin.
2. Projecting small area
populations by ethnic
b. Internal migration
Chair: Tony Champion
1. Half the migrant sky:
Lives and roles of
Chinese women in
internal migration.
Penny Kane, University
of Melbourne
2. Putting Sweden on
the map of internal
migration modelling.
Stamatis Kalogirou,
LSE
3. The settling
behaviour of the foreign
c. Families &
households
Chair: Esther
Roughsedge
1. The structure of
intergenerational
exchange in the UK.
Tak Wing Chan,
University of Oxford.
2. Family Members’
Decisions. Miriam
Marcén, University of
Zaragoza,
3. Preparation for new
estimates of lone-
d. Reproductive
health 2
Chair: Sabu Padmadas
1. Trends in protective
behaviour among single
vs. married young
women in sub-Saharan
Africa. John Cleland,
LSHTM & Mohamed
Ali, WHO.
2. Association between
HIV/AIDS & recent
fertility patterns in
Kenya. Monica Magadi
& Alfred Agwanda,
8.00pm
group: Challenges and
solutions. Paul Norman,
Ludi Simpson &
Abdelouahid Tajar,
University of Leeds &
University of
Manchester.
3. GROS small area
population estimates.
Harvey Snowling, GROScotland.
4. Population estimates
for census output areas:
Deriving a base &
implementing a
forecasting model. Simon
Brown, Hampshire CC
Dinner
Glen Eyre
Wednesday
20
September
7.30Breakfast
8.30am
Glen Eyre
population in Italy.
Stefania Rimoldi &
Laura Terzera,
Universita degli Studi
di Milano-Bicocca
4. Residential mobility
& migration of the
separated – Peteke
Feijten & Maarten van
Ham, University of St.
Andrews
parents. Hannah
McConnell and Steve
Smallwood, ONS
4. Cohabitation:
Changes over the 1990s
and longitudinal
evidence on transitions
in status. Lynda Clarke
& Julian Buxton,
LSHTM
Loughborough
3. Fear of side effects as
a barrier to modern
contraceptive use
among Ghanaian
women. Claire Bailey,
Southampton
4. Male method choice
in Bangladesh: Does it
matter who makes the
decision? MA Islam,
Sabu Padmadas, Peter
Smith, University of
Southampton
9.00am –
10.00am
Murray
Lecture
Theatre
10.0010.30am
Murray
Foyer
10.30-12.30
Parallel
sessions
a – Lecture
Room C
b – Lecture
Room B
c – Murray
Lecture
Theatre
d – Lecture
Room D
Plenary 3 –
Professor John Salt.
International
migration in interesting
times.
Chair: John Hollis
Coffee
a. Uncertainty
Chair: Malcolm Brown
b. Health methodology c. 2011 Census
Chair: Eileen Howes
& mortality
differentials
1. Prediction intervals for Chair: Tim Dyson
1. Preparations for the
county population
2007 Census Test in
forecasts. Stan Smith,
1. Dying alone: the
Camden
University of Florida
distribution of Section
Neil Storer, Camden
2. Toward measuring
46 funerals in England, Council.
uncertainty in population 2000 – 2004. J. F.
2. Topic consultation
data generated by the
Mohan, University of
for the 2011 Census and
cohort-component
Southampton
& the selection of
method. David Swanson, 2. 4. Health inequalities questions for the 2007
University of Mississippi in the UK. Scanlan, J,
test. Elizabeth McLaren
3. Comparing and
Washington
& Peter Stokes, ONS.
evaluating historic
3. The effect of
3. Methods of
projections and forecasts birthweight on
geographical
d. Ageing
Chair: Maria Evandrou
1. Income and lifestyles
in later life in Britain.
A. Soule, HM Treasury
2. Health and social
care service use in later
life in Britain. Maria
Evandrou, Southampton
3. Health inequalities in
older age: Material or
psychosocial pathways?
Anne McMunn & James
Nazroo, UCL
4. Compression of
of population. Richard
Belding, Aberdeenshire
Council
mortality in the first
year of life: Can we
improve the estimates
in developing
countries? Amos
Channon, Southampton
4. National abortion
guidelines & barriers to
accessing safe abortion
services in Nepal.
Mahesh Puri
perturbation for
disclosure control.
Caroline Young,
University of
Southampton.
4. Review of statistical
disclosure methods for
census frequency
tables. Natalie Shlomo,
University of
Southampton
morbidity among the
English population:
Evidence from ELSA.
Faiza Tabassum, Edlira
Gjonça, James Nazroo,
Michael Marmot,
University College
London.