British Society for Population Studies – Timetable of 2005 Annual Conference Monday 12 September 11.00am onwards Grimond Foyer 12.00 - 1.00pm Rutherford Dining Room 1.00-2.00pm Grimond Lecture Theatre Registration Lunch Plenary 1. Professor Emily Grundy (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine) Intergenerational changes and family support 2.00-4.00pm Parallel sessions a. Grimond 3 b. Grimond Lecture Theatre c. Grimond 5 d. Grimond 6 Chair: John Hollis a. Social support & mortality at older ages Chair: Cecilia Tomassini 1. Does social vulnerability predict mortality in older adults – Melissa Andrew, Arnold B. Mitnitsky & b. Migration, population mobility & ethnicity 1 Chair: Seraphim Alvanides 1. Dispersing from immigrant cities? Destination choices of the 1.5 generation – Jamie Goodwin-White (University of c. Historical 1 Chair: Christine Jones 1. Through the regional magnifying glass: Infant mortality in the Lincolnshire fens 1870-1900: The ‘Fen Penalty’ – Sam Sneddon d. Reproductive health 1 1. State population policies in India: Evolution & provision of family planning services by them - C. Bhattacharya (London School of Kenneth Rockwood (Dalhousie University, Canada) 2. Mortality after widowhood in later life: Short-term & long-term consequences of bereavement on mortality using the co-twin control method – D. Rasulo, K. Christensen, C. Tomassini (Office for National Statistics) 3. Old-age vulnerability in Indonesia: A longitudinal social network approach – Elisabeth Schröder-Butterfill (University of Oxford) 4. Who cares when parents die? Changing marital histories, intergenerational ties & mortality – Hilke Brockmann, Andreas Timm (Bremen University) 4.00-4.30pm Grimond Foyer Tea Washington) 2. Ethnic population distribution, immigration & internal migration in Britain: What evidence linkage at the district scale? – John Stillwell & Oliver Duke-Williams (University of Leeds) 3. Moving home: How migration affects London’s ethnic composition – Marian Mackintosh (Independent Consultant) & Eileen Howes (Greater London Authority 4. Population dynamics in Oldham and Rochdale: The nature of dispersal – Ludi Simpson (University of Manchester) (University of Nottingham) 2. Vulnerability among illegitimate children in 19th century Scotland – Alice Reid& Ros Davies (University of Cambridge) 3. Work patterns, conception patterns and the registration of demographic events in selected localities in late nineteenth century Britain – Eilidh Garrett & Ros Davies (University of Cambridge) Economics) 2. Reproductive health in Estonia: Results of qualitative research – Gail Grant (University of Southampton) 3. Changes in reproductive & lifestyle variables among first and second generation Bangladeshi migrants in London: Implications for breast cancer risk– A. Nunez-dela-Mora, DA Napolitano, GR Bentley (University College London) 4. Health differentials between Bangladeshi migrants in London and Sedentees in Bangladesh: Implications for reproductive function – Gillian R. Bentley & Alejandra Nunez-de-laMora (University College London 4.30-6.30pm Parallel sessions a. Subnational 1 Chair: Eileen Howes b. Evolutionary 1 Chair: Rebecca Sear a. Grimond Lecture Theatre b. Grimond 6 c. Grimond 3 d. Grimond 5 1. Delving deeper: Estimating unknown multiway relationships at subdistrict level - Paul Williamson (University of Liverpool) 2. Putting shape to the 2011 census – Peter Benton (Office for National Statistics) 3. The development of the 2011 census in Scotland Ian Máté – GRO-Scotland 4. Developments with ONS’ Small Area Population Estimates – Andy Bates (Office for National Statistics) 1. Helpful grandmothers in rural Ethiopia: A study of the role of kin in determining child survival & growth – M. A. Gibson & Ruth Mace (University College London) 2. Maternal care & child’s survival in humans: An evolutionary demography perspective – Samuel Pavard (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) & Evelyne Heyer (Musée de l’Homme, Paris) 3. Reproductive effort, immunosenescence & longevity in pre-industrial Finns – Virpi Lummaa, Samuli Helle, Jukka Jokela, (University of Turku & University of Sheffield) 6.30-7.30pm Reception & poster session c. Migration, population distribution & ethnicity 2 Chair: Tony Champion 1. Montreal nationalism: A default multidimensional identity – Yolande Bouka (Seton Hall University, NJ) 2. Patterns of migration & community formation among the Amish in the US – Elizabeth Cooksey and Joseph F. Donnermeyer (Ohio State University) 3. The impact of ethnic preference policies on interethnic relations: Malaysia & Sri Lanka – Navaratnam Ravinthirakumaran (National University of Singapore) 4. Questions of ethnicity in the millennium round of Commonwealth censuses – AJ Christopher (Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, South Africa) d. Fertility 1 Chair: Denise Hawkes 1. Fertility transition in Kenya: A regional analysis of the proximate determinants - Ekisa Anyara & Andrew Hinde (University of Southampton) 2. Historical demography in Tanzania (1920-61) using census data – Sarah Walters (University of Cambridge) 3. Fertility variations in Scotland 1981-2001: are there local cultures of fertility? - Paul Boyle, Elspeth Graham and Zhiqiang Feng, (University of St Andrews) Grimond Foyer 7.30pm Dinner Rutherford Dining Room Tuesday 13 September 8.00-9.00am Breakfast Rutherford Dining Room 9.00-11.00am Parallel sessions a. Care and carers Chair: Hilke Brockmann b. Migration, population distribution & ethnicity 3 Chair: Robin Flowerdew 1. Demographic implications for palliative care provision in the UK – Briony Eckstein & Angela Armstrong-Costa (Office for National Statistics) 2. The dynamics of social care – Maria Evandrou & Jane Falkingham (University of Southampton) 3. Informal care at working age: Effects of job 1. Comparing health 1. Population changes in inequalities across time and Greece during the period 1940- place: An analysis of 51 – Nikolaos Mostratos Demographic and Health (University of Newcastle) Survey data – Kath Moser, 2. The community health index David A. Leon (London for proxy measures of School of Hygiene & Tropical migration in Scotland – Cecilia Medicine) Macintyre & Gillian Miller 2. Which aspects of socio(GRO-Scotland) economic status at birth and 3. Factors behind commuting nine years are most associated behaviour in England and with child nutritional status at a. Grimond 3 b. Grimond Lecture Theatre c. Grimond 6 d. Grimond 5 c. Health inequalities 1 Chair: Tiziana Leone d. Families and households Chair: Ludi Simpson 1. The instability of divorce risk factors in the UK – Tak Wing Chan University of Oxford) & Brendan Halpin (University of Limerick) 2. Are concensual unions more “gender equal” than marriages – Antonella Pinelli, Francesca Flori (University of Rome ‘La characteristics & family configuration – Ursula Henz (London School of Economics) 4. Who becomes an informal caregiver? A life course perspective – Harriet Young & Emily Grundy (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine) 11.00-11.30 Grimond Foyer 11.30-1.00pm Parallel sessions a. Grimond 3 b. Grimond 5 c. Grimond 6 d. Grimond Lecture Theatre Wales 2001 – Anne Green and David Owen (University of Warwick) 4. Ethnic differences in commuting patterns in London – Eileen Howes (Greater London Authority) the end of childhood – Paula Griffiths, Noel Cameron, Shane Norris & John Peffifor (Loughborough University, University of Witwatersrand) 3. Spatial inequality in delivery care uptake in Ghana: A multilevel analysis – Fiifi Amoako John son, James Brown, Sabu Padmadas (University of Southampton) Sapienza’) b. Health inequalities 2 Chair: Paula Griffiths, Loughborough University c. Evolutionary 2 Chair: Sarah Johns d. Special session Chair: Cheng Yong Lee 1. Intergenerational transfers in humans & other animals – Jan Beise (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) 2. Causes and consequences of parental divorce in relation to child gender: An evolutionary perspective – Kent County Council and the setting of Local Public Service Agreement Targets. – Nick Moon (Kent County Council) Predicting the numbers of older people helped to live at home: A needs-based model and the implications The demographic transition The Cuban demographic transition – Sonia I Catasus Cervera (CEDEM, University of Havana) Coffee a. Economics & health in ageing populations Chair: Maria Evandrou 1. The cost of population ageing: Forecasting future hospital expenditure in Germany – Hilke Brockmann (Bremen University) & Jutta Gampe (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) 2. Children & standard of 1. Where not to live: A geodemographic classification of mortality – Nicola Shelton, Mark Birkin, Danny Dorling (University College London, University of Leeds, University of Sheffield) 2. Calculating low birth weight 1.00-2.00pm Rutherford Dining Room 2.00-4.00pm Parallel sessions a. Grimond 5 b. Grimond 3 c. Grimond 6 d. Grimond Lecture Theatre living in old age – Gustavo De Santis, Chiara Seghieri, Maria Letizia Tanturri (University of Florence) 3. Unhealthy life expectancy at age 65 across time and space: What do we know now? – Judith Shapiro (University of Kent at Canterbury) Lunch from DHS: Can mothers’ help improve estimation? – Amos Channon (University of Southampton) 3. Neonatal mortality in developing countries: What can we learn from DHS data – Sarah Hall (University of Southampton) David Lawson (University College London) 3. Is the gender gap in religiosity a legacy of evolution? – David Voas (University of Manchester) – Simon Adams (Tribal Secta) 3. Integrated approach of local level planning by local government considering population as a weighting factor– Jagannath Ojha (Ministry of Local Development, Jawalakhel) a. Intergenerational relationships at older ages Chair: Karen Glaser b. Migration, population distribution & ethnicity 4 Chair: John Stillwell c. Reproductive health 2 d. Local government, census and national issues Chair: John Hollis 1. Intergenerational relations & support in Italy – R. Fraboni, C. Freguja, B. Baldazzi, L. L. Sabbadini (ISTAT) 2. Ageing & daughter preference: Comparative perspectives from Indonesia – Philip Kreager (University of Oxford) 3. Relationships between 1. Choosing a permanent contraceptive method: A 1. The likely impact of comparative analysis of the globalisation on internal age & parity effects of migration, urbanisation, and sterilization in Brazil and international migration with India - Tiziana Leone & Sabu special reference to India– Padmadas (Institute of Atreji Majumdar (University of Education & University of Delhi) Southampton) 2. Measure of the integration 2. The uptake of modern of foreign migrants in Italy: contraception in a Gambian Some new experiences – G. village: The spread of a Baio & M. Blangiardo cultural innovation over 25 1. The policy Delphi: A tool to shape the future – Maura Misiti & Adele Menniti (Istituto di Richerche sulla Popolazione e le Politiche Sociali, Consiglio Nazionale delle Richerche, Rome) 2. Enumerating the disruptions in family (and work) life and social support at older ages in the United Kingdom – Rachel Stuchbury, Karen Glaser, Cecilia Tomassinin, Janet Askham (King’s College London) 4.00-4.30pm Grimond Foyer 4.30-5.30pm Grimond Lecture Theatre Tea Plenary 2 – Professor Ron Lee (University of California at Berkeley) Intergenerational transfers: A broad view (LSHTM & Milan, Imperial & Milan) 3. Immigration & labour accessibility in Madrid, Spain – Vicente Rodrigues, Ricardo Mendez, Ascension Calatrava, Ana Melero (Institute of Economics & Geography, Madrid) 4. Highly skilled migration & ethnic networks – Fei Qin (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) years – R. Mace, N. Allal, R. Sear & A. Prentice (University College London) 3. Condom use between & within relationships among young people in Kabale & Mukono districts in Uganda – N. Tumwesigye, R. Ingham, D. Holmes (University of Southampton) 4. Consistency in reporting contraception between spouses in Bangladesh: Evidence from a recent Demographic and Health Survey – MA Islam, SS Padmadas, PWF Smith (University of Southampton) Republic of Moldova census, 2004 – Malcolm Brown (Cornwall County Council) & Maia Godonoga (University of Plymouth) 3. Making use of the 2001 census in Cambridgeshire PCTs – Vicky Head (Cambridgeshire County Council) 4. Using the 2001 census microdata to explore household formation & ethnicity; A multilevel modelling approach – Abdelouahid Tajar & Ludi Simpson (University of Manchester) 5.30-7.00pm Parallel sessions Chair: Mike Murphy a. Evolutionary 3 Chair: Virpi Lummaa a. Grimond 6 b. Grimond 5 c. Grimond Lecture Theatre d. Grimond 3 1. A life history perspective on size, health and adult mortality in the Gambia – Rebecca Sear (London School of Economics) 2. Understanding why teenage motherhood occurs in deprived environments: An evolutionary approach – Sarah E. Johns (University of Kent at Canterbury) 3. Fertility decline driven by poverty in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)– Ruth Mace & Eshetu Gurmu (University College London) 7.30pm Dinner b. Historical 2 Chair: Eilidh Garrett c. Sub-national 2 Chair: Robin Edwards d. Migration 5 Chair: Nick Bailey 1. The Victorian Panel Survey: An overview – Christine Jones, Kevin Schurer & A. Crockett (University of Essex) 2. Migration in a rural area: A comparative study of East Yorkshire from the nineteenth century to 2003, with special reference to the Yorkshire Wolds – Andrea Armstrong (University of Newcastle upon Tyne) 3. Geographical perspectives on the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in Europe: England and Wales, 1900-55– Sam Sneddon, Matthew Smallman-Raynor & Andrew Cliff (University of Nottingham & University of Cambridge) 1. From household to population – Briony Eckstein (Office for National Statistics) 2. The use of administrative data sources in local population estimates – Piers Elias (Tees Valley Joint Strategy Unit) 3. Methodology for producing the revised back series of population estimates – Julie Jefferies (Office for National Statistics) 4. Residents & staff in communal establishments: Data quality issues in the 2001 Census – Levin Wheller & Madhavi Bajekal (Office for National Statistics) 1. Geographical analysis of fine level population changes in Greece: 19512001 – Seraphim Alvanides (University of Newcastle) 2. Comparisons between survey & population estimates of recent UK emigration – Michael Rendall, Emma Wright, Giles Horsfield (Office for National Statistics) 3. Are our cities still losing human capital? The evidence of the “moving group” data from the 2001 census – Tony Champion & Mike Coombes (University of Newcastle) Wednesday 14 September 8.00-9.00am Rutherford Dining Room 9.00am – 10.00am Breakfast Plenary 3 – Alison O’Connell (Pensions Policy Institute) Grimond Theatre Reforming UK pensions for today’s and tomorrow’s older people 10.00-10.30am Grimond Foyer 10.30-12.30 Parallel sessions a. Grimond Lecture Theatre b. Grimond 5 c. Grimond 3 Chair: John Hollis Coffee a. Migration, population mobility & ethnicity 6 Chair: Paul Boyle 1. Comparative geographical study of out-migration between England and Wales & Japan using global & local statistical models – Stamatis b. Health and mortality 1. Identifying cohorts with favourable mortality experience – Mike Murphy (London School of Economics) 2. Jewish population and death rates in England and Wales, 2001 – Steven Haberman & c. Fertility 2 Chair: Steve Smallwood 1. An explanation of the positive cross-country correlation between fertility and & female employment among Western European countries – Tomas Kogel Kalogirou (London School of Economics), Tomoki Nakaya, Keiji Yano (Ritsumeikan University Japan) 2. Analysing the 2001 interdistrict migration matrix – Robin Flowerdew & Zhiqiang Feng (University of St. Andrews) 4. Population turnover for deprived neighbourhoods: Structural or pathological? – Nick Bailey & Mark Livingstone (University of Glasgow) 4. Twenty-first century migrants: Who are they, and where are they going? – Daniel Vickers & Phil Rees (University of Leeds) Close Marlena Schmool 3. Non- independent persons: Definitions & statistical methodologies for correct identification– Alessandra Battisti, Alessandro Solipaca (Italian National Institute of Statistics) (Loughborough University) 2. Early motherhood in the UK: Micro & macro determinants – Denise Hawkes, Heather Joshi (Institute of Education) 3. Fertility preferences and intentions: Some results from an Italian survey – Adele Menninti & Maura Misiti (Institute for Population Research & Social Policies) 4. Current trens and issues in British fertility analysis – Jessica Chamberlain (Office for National Statistics)