“Increasing London’s Rail Capacity”
Ian Brown, Managing Director London Rail
LSE London Seminar Series 2006
Planning, Regeneration &
Sustainability
6th February 2006
Growth and Rail Market Share in Docklands
•
Isle of Dogs (Canary Wharf)
•
0 to 70,000 jobs from 1982 - 2005
•
Rail market share to Canary Wharf is 91%
•
DLR from 8m to 50m journeys p.a., now planning for approx. 100m
•
Commuter journeys 1995 - 2004
– Overall +300%
– Road -10%
2
Docklands Light Railway
•
One of the first light rail systems in Britain.
•
One of the safest & most advanced automatic train control systems.
•
Expanded faster than any other UK railway.
•
Opened in 1987 as a modest £77m railway with an 11 vehicle fleet & 15
stations.
•
Today, DLR is a £1bn, 31km railway with 38 stations & 94 vehicles with
passenger numbers expected to increase to 60m within the next 2 years.
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2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
DLR passengers per annum (millions)
Annual DLR Passenger Journeys (millions)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
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Accommodating Growth: 3-Car Upgrade
•
Increasing capacity (again) between Bank & Lewisham
•
Offers ‘metro’ capacity
•
Public Inquiry Feb 2005 – TWA issued by the Secretary of State on 17th
October 2005
•
Operational by 2009
•
New trains on order as of May 2005
5
New Link: Silvertown and London City Airport Extension
• Four stations
• 30-year DBFM concession won by AMEC / RBS
• First test train August 2005
• Opened 2nd December 2005
• Formal opening 6th December 2005 (scheduled 15th December 2005)
6
New Cross River Link: Woolwich Arsenal Link
• 2.5km route under Thames
• Continuation of the London City Airport line
• New interchange & development in Woolwich town centre
• TWA Powers March 2004
• 30-year concession won by AMEC / RBS
• Construction started 13th June 2005
• Opens February 2009
7
Upgrading Existing Infrastructure - Stratford International and
Lower Lea Valley Extension
• A National Rail conversion to light rail
• Developing an under-used section of North London Line
• Direct connection into Stratford International
• 3 new stations
• Serving the Olympic Village
• TWA Submission August 2005, Objections closed 12th October
• Operational 2009 as a new cross Thames link
8
Integrated Vision for Docklands
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Integrating National Rail: East London Line
The History
•
1985 LUL proposed an extension to Dalston Junction
•
2001 Project transferred to the SRA by the Deputy Prime Minister
•
2004 (12th November) Project transferred to TfL London Rail
•
Through running heavy rail ‘Metro’ system - opens June 2010
•
A £900m project, funded by TfL
The Routes
Phase 1 (Orange)
Extend the existing line:
•
North to Dalston Junction
•
South to Crystal Palace & West
Croydon
Phase 2 (Blue)
Further extend services:
•
Along North London Line to
Highbury and Islington
•
West to Clapham Junction
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Service Provision
•
12 trains per hour will travel to & from Dalston Junction in Phase 1
– ⅓ will terminate at New Cross
– ⅓ will terminate at Crystal Palace
– ⅓ will terminate at West Croydon
•
Train frequency will rise to 16 trains per hour through the central section
once Phase 2 has been delivered
•
4-car trains travelling on National Rail infrastructure
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Project Benefits
• Offers congestion relief to
–
Central London
–
London Bridge
• Links north and south London using existing railway infrastructure
• Connects London Borough of Hackney to the rail network
• Major regeneration
• Part of the London 2012 Olympic Transport Delivery Plan
• First step towards an orbital system
13
Northern Extension - Regeneration
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Current Situation
•
Phase 1 will be delivered by June 2010
•
Programme Manager (Parsons Brinkerhoff) appointed May 2005
•
Enabling Works (2) (Taylor Woodrow) let June 2005
•
Main Works ITT September 2005 – Contract awarded Summer 2006
•
Rolling Stock (and possibly Depot) – ITT October 2005
•
Infrastructure Controller
– LUL, north of New Cross Gate
– Network Rail, south of New Cross Gate
•
Passenger Services Operator – TfL Concession or LUL
15
London: Now and the Future
• A successful world city - its world status brings big benefits to rest of the UK:
–
London businesses - internationally orientated
–
UK base for many multinationals
–
Foreign investment in London stimulates growth in other UK locations
• London is set to grow by 1 million people in the next 10 years
• London contributes £9-15bn to central government
• The Capital has the highest poverty rate in England, and some of the worst
housing, public health and homelessness in the UK
• London’s transport infrastructure needs significant investment just to
keep up with the growth
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Pressures on Rail Network
•
Economic and population growth has fuelled increases in transport demand
over the past 10 years
– Number of public transport trips has grown by approx. 40%, of which rail trips
increased by approx. 30%
•
Capacity growth has not kept pace – London’s transport network is now
under considerable stress
– ⅓ of trains arriving during the morning peak hour are in excess of their guideline
capacity
•
Without effective intervention the situation will deteriorate, employment and
population, both fundamental drivers of demand, are projected to grow
further
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Accommodating Rail Demand
•
The future burden on rail will be substantial:
– Spatial distribution of new jobs (concentrated in the city centre) and housing
(distributed across London)
•
Meeting growing rail demand in London is essential. This can be best
achieved by focussed renewal of the rail network.
– Peak rail demand is forecast to further increase by approx. 30% over the
coming 20 years, resulting in severe crowding across most of London’s rail
corridors
•
TfL is developing a vision to meet future levels of demand and where
possible reduce crowding by increasing peak capacity
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One third of trains arriving at London termini during the
morning peak are already in excess of their guideline capacity.
Trains Currently in Excess of
Guideline Capacity
Trains with Crowding Ratios >1.25
(Arriving at central London termini between 8am - 9am)
(Arriving at central London termini between 8am - 9am)
Cannon St
60%
Cannon St
Charing Cross
46%
Charing Cross
London Bridge
Liverpool St
45%
45%
London Bridge
Liverpool St
44%
Marylebone
Victoria
Blackfriars
Marylebone
40%
38%
Moorgate
Kings Cross
23%
19%
Waterloo
11%
16%
2%
0%
Victoria
25%
Fenchurch St
24%
16%
11%
Blackfriars
0%
Fenchurch St
0%
Moorgate
0%
Kings Cross
Waterloo
0%
0%
Paddington
13%
Paddington
Kings Cross TL
13%
Kings Cross TL
0%
Euston
0%
Euston
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Source: PIXC data, SRA 2004
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Population & employment growth are likely to generate a rail
demand increase of approx. 30% over the period to 2025.
Demand growth
2001 to 2025
Demand Growth Rates by TOC
2001 - 2025
Thameslink (north)
Silverlink
Great Northern
Peterborough
Bedford
Cambridge
ONE (West Anglia)
Rugby
10-20%
20-30%
30-40%
40+%
Ipswich
Chiltern
ONE (Great Eastern)
Banbury
c2c
First Great
Western
Link
Westbury
Shoeburyness
Central
London
South Eastern Trains
South West Trains
Dover
Weymouth
Southern and
Thameslink (south)
Greater London and surrounding areas
Brighton
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These growth levels will cause significant increases in rail
crowding across London.
Projected Crowding 2025
Morning Peak - % Crowded Hours
Peterborough
Bedford
Thameslink (north)
Silverlink
% Crowded Hours
0-10%
Great Northern
10-20%
Cambridge
20-30%
ONE (West Anglia)
Rugby
30-40%
Ipswich
Chiltern
ONE (Great Eastern)
Banbury
c2c
First Great
Western Link
Shoeburyness
Westbury
Central
London
South Eastern
Trains
South West Trains
Dover
KEY MESSAGE
Pragmatic ways of
providing additional
rail capacity across all
transport corridors
must be identified to
avoid stifling London’s
growth
Weymouth
Brighton
Thameslink (south)
Southern
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Options to increase capacity include increasing service
frequency, length of trains & carriage capacity.
Additional Implementation
Requirements
More trains per hour
9am
•
•
•
•
Simplify timetables
Remove pinch-points
More track capacity
Additional rolling stock
10am
More passengers per train
Now
Future
• Lengthening of trains and
platforms
• Additional rolling stock
• Higher capacity carriages e.g,
double-decker carriages or reconfiguration of rolling stock
Areas Where Solutions
Could be Applied
• Thameslink services
(north & south of the
Thames)
• Lea Valley
• Orbital routes
• East-West corridor
(CLRL & CTRL)
• South-west London
• Parts of South-east
London
• East and West London
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Specific constraints must be overcome in different parts of
London to increase capacity.
Constraint Type
Speed restrictions, signal
headway limitations &
traffic mix
Traffic mix
Stopping
patterns
Traffic mix &
level crossing
Signalling
Throat & platform Lines at
Throat
Freight lines cross
restrictions
capacity
restrictions
Restrictions
passenger lines
Short
All platforms
at throat
platforms
at capacity
Throat & platform
Stopping patterns
Platform (number & length)
restrictions
& throat restrictions
Borough Market &
other junctions
Traffic mix
Slow lines at
capacity
Main line at
capacity (as far
as Woking)
Herne Hill
Junction
Terminal
restrictions
Pinch-point
Traffic mix
Track capacity
reached
Stopping
patterns
Speed &
signal
restrictions,
flat junctions
& traffic mix
Flat junctions, low line speeds
and traffic mix
Windmill Bridge
Junction
Source: London Rail analysis
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How might London accommodate projected increases in rail
demand?
Silverlink: Euston-Watford
Thameslink upgrade
• Extension of Bakerloo Line
North-east London: Lea Valley
& Chingford
• Increased Lea Valley capacity
Chiltern: Evergreen 2
• Committed Scheme
Crossrail 1
Orbitals
• Increased frequency
& speed by removing
key pinch-points & repriortising traffic mix
Channel Tunnel
Rail Link
South-west
• London Platform
lengthening at Waterloo &
other stations
• Lengthen trains
South-east London
South London
• Lengthen trains & some platforms
• Lengthen inner suburban trains
• Some infrastructure work
Other projects
• Additional capacity improvements on other routes
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London requires a fully integrated transport system, for
which rail is a key part.
Indicative Only
Thameslink
Inner London
Orbitals
Radial – fast links
into London
Inner
suburban
routes
East
London
Line
Crossrail
Circle Line
West
London
Line
GLA Boundary
Inner London
Orbitals
Interchanges
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Effect of Enhancements on Rail Capacity
Capacity Uplift from Rail 2025
Peterborough
Thameslink Bedford
(north)
Great
Northern
Cambridge
ONE (West Anglia)
Silverlink
Rugby
Capacity uplift
(seating and standing)
10-20%
20-30%
30-40%
40%
Ipswich
Chiltern
ONE (Great Eastern)
Banbury
c2c
First Great
Western Link
Westbury
Shoeburyness
Central
London
South Eastern
Trains
Dover
South West
Trains
Weymouth
Brighton
Thameslink (south)
Southern
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Effect on Overcrowding
% Crowded
Hours
2025 Crowding – Rail 2025 Proposals
Thameslink (north)
% Crowded Hours:
Proportion of total
passenger time
occurring under
conditions
categorised as
crowded
Peterborough
Bedford
Great Northern
Cambridge
ONE (West Anglia)
Silverlink
Rugby
Ipswich
ONE
Chiltern
(Great Eastern)
Banbury
c2c
First Great
Western Link
Shoeburyness
Westbury
0-10%
10-20%
20-30%
30-40%
Baseline 2025
Crowding
Central
London
South
Eastern
Trains
South West Trains
Dover
Weymouth
Rail 2025 proposal
results in crowding
reductions across
almost all of London
Thameslink (south)
Southern
Brighton
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The Proposal
•
High-level estimates suggest a programme of works should include 7 key
components:
1. Crossrail 1
2. Thameslink upgrade
3. Package of capacity enhancement projects on the National Rail network
4. An orbital rail service
5. A sustainable capacity and routeing strategy for rail freight
6. Thames Gateway package, including DLR, East London Line and services to
Stratford
7. 1,500 new rail cars to carry the growth
•
Close co-operation with government, industry and other stakeholders would be
essential to ensure timely and effective implementation of TfL’s rail vision
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Delivery
• Funding and governance issues must be addressed to deliver this vision:
–
It is a relatively low cost solution; funding mechanisms have yet to be
investigated
–
We must look at what governance arrangements would be required for delivery
• Close co-operation with government, industry and other stakeholders would
be essential to ensure timely and effective implementation of a vision for a
growing London rail network
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In 20 years time ….
…. will he want to live and work in London
or Birmingham, Manchester, Cardiff,
Edinburgh ….?
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www.tfl.gov.uk
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