Do Arms Races Lead to Wars?
LSE400
16 January 2015
Sir Edward Grey, 1926
• ‘The enormous growth of armaments in
Europe, the sense of insecurity and fear
caused by them – it was these that made war
inevitable. This, it seems to me, is the truest
reading of history, and the lesson that the
present should be learning from the past, in
the interests of future peace, the warning to
be handed on to those who come after us.’
PRC/US Military Balance
Richardson Model
dx/dt = ay – mx + r
dy/dt = bx – ny + s
dx/y = defence spending by country x/y over time
a and b = fear
m and n = economic fatigue/restraint
r and s = grievance/ambition/revenge
Definition
• ‘…intense competition between Powers or
groups of Powers, each trying to obtain an
advantage in military power by increasing the
quantity or improving the quality of its
armaments or armed forces…’
• (Hedley Bull, 1961)
Causes and Consequences
• Causes/Drivers:
- technological imperative
- domestic (military-industrial complex)
- external threat (action-reaction)
• Termination:
- agreement (tacit/explicit); diversion; exhaustion
- violence (especially if linked to power transition)
Defense Expenditures by the European Powers, 1870-1913
180
160
140
Britain
120
Germany
100
Russia
80
USA
France
60
Austria
40
20
Year
10
12
19
19
08
19
06
19
04
19
02
19
00
19
98
18
96
18
94
18
92
18
90
18
88
18
86
18
82
84
18
18
80
18
78
18
76
18
74
18
72
18
70
0
18
£ million
Italy
Anglo-German Naval Race
Naval Construction of the European Powers, 1900-1913 (£mn, current prices)
20.0
18.0
16.0
Britain
14.0
£ millions
France
12.0
Russia
10.0
Austria-Hungary
Germany
8.0
Italy
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1900 1901 1902 1903
1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909
Year
1910 1911 1912 1913
Naval Race Timeline
•
•
•
•
•
•
1898/1900 German Navy Laws
1904/05 British Naval Redeployment
1906 HMS Dreadnought
1908 German Dreadnought Law
1908/1909 Acceleration Crisis
1912 German Reorientation
Land Arms Race, 1910-14
Europe in 1914
Land Race Timeline
• 1910 Russian Military Reorganization
• 1912 German and Austrian Army Laws
• 1913 German Army Law; French Three-Year
Law
• 1913 Franco-Russian Railway Agreement
• 1914 Russian ‘Great Programme’
Europe, 1933-39
Europe in 1939
Cold War
US and Soviet Spending
Cold War Delivery Systems
Chinese D21 Missiles
Post-Cold War Arms Spending
(SIPRI - $mn constant, 2011)
• US 1990: 527,174; 2000: 394,155; 2003:
507,781; 2010: 720,282; 2013: 618,681
• PRC 1990: 19,820; 2000: 37,040; 2003:
57,390; 2010: 136,239; 2013: 171,831
• SU/Russia 1990: 291,082; 1998: 20,800; 2003:
39,100; 2010: 65,807; 2013: 84,864
• UK 1990: 58,824; 1999: 46,775; 2003: 57,005;
2009: 64,297; 2013: 56,231
Post- Cold War Armaments